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Jim Crawford: Who to vote for? Those who will protect our Permanent Fund dividends

By JIM CRAWFORD

Given the passage of Ballot Measure 2 last year, which gave us the insanity of rank choice voting, the safe world that Alaska voters knew, exploded.  

Going from a partisan primary, which identified conservatives and liberals to the public, to a completely nonpartisan primary race where no one can really tell who is what, is at least a sea change. The new system leaves many voters adrift without their rudders and anchors, depending upon candidates to provide truthful information on their history and their current stands on issues.  

Most important to Alaskans is the formulation and implementation of the Alaska Permanent Fund dividend. It is the capitalization of the private sector in Alaska and the reward for our savings plan.  You could call it Alaskans retirement fund.  

The good news is that each qualified Alaskan will receive $3,200 this year. The bad news is the Legislature’s majorities refused to change the statute, which requires 50% of the earnings of the Alaska Permanent Fund to be paid in a dividend to its owners. Each Alaskan who qualifies for the dividend and intends to remain in Alaska should be an advocate for protecting the dividend. The polls prove that high-water mark.  

The refusal of incumbents or challengers to be advocates for the people’s dividend is the new benchmark which should be used by voters to judge for whom to vote. Is it a misrepresentation to tell the voters that you will be an advocate for a full dividend, and then vote to not provide the funds to do so? Don’t forget that we have a $3.2 billion surplus this budget year.   

Those of us fortunate enough to have served with Gov. Jay Hammond, the father of the Alaska Permanent Fund, remember his purpose in establishing the dividend. He wanted to build a system of political support to keep the ever greedy from raiding the fund through appropriations. 

Politics and particularly partisan politics have a bad reputation. But in my decades as an officer of the Alaska Republican Party, I’ve learned that the partisan advocacy works well for most people. For example, most Republicans qualify as being conservatives either social or fiscal conservatives or both.  

Most Democrats are liberal, either moderates or extremes. As former president of Permanent Fund Defenders, a nonprofit, nonpartisan group, I established a new personal constraint for whom receives my vote: I won’t vote for a candidate who advocates or votes for a budget that does not contain at least 50% of earnings of the Alaska Permanent Fund.  

The purpose of the dividend then and now is to grow the private sector and private jobs. The public sector, as illustrated by the Alaska National Education Association, has enough from the public purse. Alaska education funding is a great example of Legislative excess. The NEA in the last session of the Legislature obtained funding to fill the total Fiscal Year 2023-year budget of $4.528 billion dollars. Then the Legislature voted to extend full funding of Fiscal Year 2024 operating and capital budgets for each year. 

How’s that for political juice? School debt reimbursement from prior years was also appropriated to the tune of $425 million.  

The Higher Education Investment Fund was also authorized to capitalize $395 million and establish one more unconstitutional dedicated fund. Our kids test 49th out of 50 in the nation in reading and math scores, while the Legislators increased the formulae funding for FY 2024 by another $30 million. I am not anti-education, but I do think that spending should be directly accountable with achievement and results with our kids.  

Some legislators want to put 100% of Permanent Fund earnings into state government. They made major progress in the last Legislature.  Fortunately, Gov. Mike Dunleavy insisted upon a higher dividend and supplemented that request with an energy allowance for each Alaskan. But the reward for Alaskans in our Permanent Fund frugality has been stolen, a piece at a time, by those legislators who will never support the statutory approach to calculating the dividend.  

The original statute was based upon earnings of the Permanent Fund. Last year, the Alaska Permanent Fund made a profit of $19.2 billion which should result in an increase in your dividend for the next five years. It didn’t and won’t because of the change by legislators who gave us the “Percent of Market Value,” (POMV) value calculation to the fund and its dividend.  

Then they have the audacity to claim we’re overspending if we pay the full dividend. Instead, we got legislative majorities that gave the General Fund a $1.5 billion raise, while reducing the amount of the dividend. Our collective job is to determine who these charlatans are and remove them from office.

When a legislator openly violates the statutes of the state, they should be removed from office. The statute that governs dividends can be amended by a majority of legislators. The dividend statute was not been amended since that would establish a clear and probable cause for removal by voters. What we’re left with is catching legislators in a lie. They advocate for the people’s dividend at the statutory level during their campaigns, then vote our dividend during the legislative session.  

In the last set of elections, we removed nine incumbents of the House and Senate who were caught lying or were philosophically misaligned with the voters’ demand for a full dividend from the people’s fund. That’s half the job.

This year we need to continue to clean House (and Senate) from those who oppose what is best for Alaskans.      

Jim Crawford is the former President of Permanent Fund Defenders, pfdak.com, an Alaska based educational nonprofit corporation.  Jim is a third generation, lifelong Alaskan who co-chaired the Alaskans Just Say No campaign to stop the raid on the Permanent Fund in 1999.  He also served Governor Hammond as a member of the Investment Advisory Committee which formed the investment and corporate strategy of the Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation in 1975.   

New poll shows Nick Begich beats Democrat Mary Peltola, but Palin will lose to her in Alaska’s ranked choice voting

A poll by Alaska Survey Research shows Nick Begich and Sarah Palin are neck-and-neck, with Begich having a slight advantage among likely voters on Aug. 16, in the three-way special general election to fill out Congressman Don Young’s term. This is the second public poll that shows Palin losing in a matchup with Democrat Mary Peltola.

In the first survey of voters since the Trump rally on June 9 in Anchorage, the survey shows that for the first round of counting in the ranked choice scenario, Palin actually comes in third:

  • Democrat Mary Peltola: 41.1%
  • Republican Nick Begich: 29.6%
  • Republican Sarah Palin: 29.4%

For round two, Palin is eliminated, leaving the final showdown between Begich and Peltola, according to this poll, the most current publicly available polling information that takes in account the ranked choice voting system.

In the round 2 counting of this universe of voters, Begich wins 54.7% to Peltola’s 45.3%.

In a hypothetical round where Begich is eliminated, Peltola would win in a matchup with Palin, 51-49%, the survey predicts.

Ivan Moore, who owns Alaska Survey Research, ran the analytics, which show Palin has just 15% chance of winning on Aug. 16.

“For the math nerds, a little playing around with standard errors and normal distribution tables yields the following probabilities of being Alaska’s next Congressional Representative: Begich 50% Peltola 35% Palin 15%,” he said.

“That’s Palin’s negative rating coming into play right there,” he said. Palin’s negative rating is 61% among registered voters, and her positive rating is 31%, a little more than she received in the special primary election in June.

“The results are even more compelling if we tighten the screen and just look at the 928 voters who said they’re ‘certain’ to vote in the primary. Begich still pips Palin in the three way, going on to beat Peltola 53-47. The hypothetical Peltola-Palin matchup is 52-48,” he said, with Peltola, once again, beating Palin.

Alaska Survey Research conducted the poll on July 20-25, with a universe of 1,423 registered Alaska voters. Of those, 1,219 were likely primary voters, and 967 were “certain” to vote.

Monkeypox messaging: World Health Org. says gay men should limit sexual partners ‘for the moment’

The World Health Organization says that behavioral changes are needed: Men having sex with multiple other men should limit their sexual partners to lower the risk of infection and reduce the spread of monkeypox.

“That means making safe choices for yourself and others, for men who have sex with men,” WHO Chief chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said. “This includes, for the moment, reducing your number of sexual partners.”

99% of the cases of monkeypox are among men, and at least 95% of those patients are men having sex with men, according to WHO.

WHO also called on media, public health authorities and government to fight stigma and discrimination, which the agency said will only fuel the outbreak, although it didn’t say how it would fuel the outbreak.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control has a slight different message than WHO. While agreeing that monkeypox is primarily a gay sex disease right now, the CDC is emphasizing that anyone can get monkeypox. The CDC is also cautioning health agencies and the media from using photos that show severe cases of the illness.

The current count of cases in the United States stood at 4,907 on Wednesday. Only Wyoming, Montana, Vermont, and Alaska have no reported cases yet, and New York City leads the nation in infections. The Biden Administration said Thursday that more than 780,000 doses of vaccine will be available Friday, in addition to the 300,000 doses of monkeypox vaccine distributed earlier this month, for a total of 1.1 million doses. 

“Anyone can get monkeypox, and CDC is carefully monitoring for monkeypox in the United States. CDC is working to provide frontline healthcare providers and public health officials with information about what monkeypox looks like and how to manage the illness. Many—though not all—of the reported cases have been among gay and bisexual men. Given this, CDC is focusing on identifying and using specific channels that will directly reach gay and bisexual men across racial, ethnic, socioeconomic, and geographic backgrounds. In addition to this focused messaging, CDC is also providing information to a wider audience about symptoms and the behaviors that can lead to the spread of monkeypox,” the CDC said.

The CDC advice to health professionals has at least two parts: One is for general audiences, and one is for gay men. For the general audience, the CDC recommends health professionals saying that “anyone can get monkeypox.”

The CDC says, “Focusing on cases among gay and bisexual men may inadvertently stigmatize this population and create a false sense of safety among those who are not gay and bisexual men.”

The advice continues: “Promote messaging that provides information on what monkeypox is and how it can spread and encourages seeking health care if experiencing monkeypox-like symptoms.”

“When using images of the rash from patients with monkeypox, focus on how cases typically appear in the current outbreak and avoid showing extreme cases, unless necessary.”

“In some situations, such as healthcare provider education, it may be necessary to show extreme case presentations. Carefully consider the audience and whether only presenting images of how cases typically appear may accomplish the same goals.”

“Include pictures of people from diverse backgrounds and racial/ethnic groups.”

But for health professionals talking to gay men, the communication is tailored:

“It’s important to reach any disproportionately affected community with non-alarmist, fact-based messaging about monkeypox that provides people with tools they can use to protect themselves and others.”

“When focusing messages to gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men, use targeted channels that directly reach these audiences, such as specific websites, dating apps, or media programs.”

“To help make messages resonate, use relatable or personal stories that depict people ‘like me’ from the intended audience.”

“Messaging and dissemination tactics may need to be adapted to reach the communities who need the information as we learn more about the current monkeypox outbreak.”

Read more about how the CDC is framing the communication around monkeypox at this link.

Learn more about what the CDC is advising doctors regarding monkeypox at this link.

Ask Bernadette: If everyone wrote in random names to fill out their ranked choice ballot, could the leading candidate not reach the winning 50+1?

Editor’s note: This is the fifth in our series of questions about ranked choice voting, which is part of the new voting methodology brought to Alaska by Ballot Measure 2 via Alaskans for Better Elections. Voters continue to ask questions about how to understand the general election ballot, which they will face for the first time on the reverse side of the Aug. 16 primary ballot. The special general election question will determine who fills out the remainder of Congressman Don Young’s term in office. At the end of this Q&A, you can find previous editions of this series and get more of your questions answered by posing questions in the comment section.

Our answers are given by election expert Bernadette Wilson, state director of Americans for Prosperity Alaska. While Wilson does not necessarily support the ranked choice voting system, she has studied it enough to become an expert.

Question: If all voters wrote in random names to fill out our ranks on the ranked choice ballot, is it possible the final leader would not meet the 50%+1 target? Would they still win, or would there have to be a runoff?

Bernadette Wilson: While this is a theoretical question and it is unlikely that everyone would write in names on the write-in line that is on the ballot, there is no scenario in which this would lead to yet another runoff election. It’s mathematically impossible because the universe of eligible ballots shrinks with each round of counting.

If you vote for a write-in candidate and that same write-in candidate gets the least amount of votes, your write-in choice would be disregarded and your second choice would be in the spot to be counted in the next round of counting.

If at any point in the counting process, your choice of candidate gets disqualified from the counting due to lack of votes, and simultaneously you have not voted for another candidate, then your ballot gets disregarded. Your ballot is exhausted.

Each time a ballot gets disregarded (or “thrown out“) the total number of ballots left shrinks to a new universe. The number needed to win is once again 50% + 1, but the total number of ballots being counted is now fewer than the previous round of counting.

For example, let’s assume we look at a cohort of 100 people’s votes out of 1,000 votes cast. Out of those 100 votes, let’s assume that they all made the same first choice, but that same first choice gets the least amount of votes among the 1,000 voters in the first round of counting and therefore that particular candidate gets disqualified. If only 20 people out of that 100 voted for a second choice, that means that 80 people have now essentially not voted in the second round of counting, reducing the total number of votes needed to win.

Regardless of how many individuals choose to write in a candidate’s name, the process for counting ballots remains the same. The Elections Division is looking for 50% + 1 of the total number of votes that are in play in each particular round of counting.

The bottom line: When the election is all said and done, the Division of Elections is not looking for 50% +1 of the total number of ballots that were originally cast. It is only 50% + 1 of the ballots that are in play in the final round of counting.

Dive deeper: More information on how ranked choice voting works will be at this free Aug. 4 event at the Wilda Marston Theater in the Loussac Library at 36th Ave. and Denali Street. Parking is free and the event is free:

Watch Bernadette Wilson explain how ranked choice voting works at this link:

https://www.facebook.com/AlaskaAFP/videos

Previous questions:

Ask Bernadette: Ranked choice voting Q&A series

Ask Bernadette: What are the ramifications of voting for just one person on a ranked choice ballot?

Although Biden tries to redefine it, recession is here

By CASEY HARPER | THE CENTER SQUARE

U.S. gross domestic product decreased by 0.9% in the second quarter of 2022, according to new data from Bureau of Economic Analysis, signaling the start of an economic recession in the U.S.

“The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by increases in exports and personal consumption expenditures…” the BEA said Thursday.

Economists have warned for months that a second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth would officially signal the U.S. has entered a recession. GDP also shrank in the first quarter of 2022, by 1.6%.

In anticipation of these numbers, the White House in recent days has insisted there is no recession, questioning the standard definition of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

“As Secretary [Janet] Yellen said on Sunday, two negative quarters of GDP growth is not the technical definition of recession,” Brian Deese, Biden’s director of National Economic Council, told reporters this week. “It’s not the definition that economists have traditionally relied on.”

Critics blasted the Biden administration, arguing it was reframing the data for political purposes.

“Question: Out of the past 10 times the U.S. economy has experienced two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, how many times was a recession officially declared?” Michael Strain, director of Economic Policy Studies and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote on Twitter. “Answer: 10.”

Notably, Google’s dictionary in conjunction with Oxford Languages defines recession as “a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.”

Despite pushback from critics, the White House has continued to argue the definition of recession.

“But from the President’s perspective, putting that technical question aside, the most important question economically is whether working people and middle-class families have more breathing room, they have more job opportunities, their wages are growing up — going up in a — in a stable way, and they’re able to afford the important things in their lives…” he added.

But 41-year high inflation has surpassed wage growth.

Those concerns have been top of mind for Americans as gas prices hit record highs last month before dipping down, though gas prices still are at levels much higher than the same time last year.

Meanwhile, the latest federal inflation data showed consumer prices rose 9.1% in the previous twelve months while the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index rose 11.3% in the same time.

Casey Harper is a Senior Reporter for the Washington, D.C. Bureau. He previously worked for The Daily Caller, The Hill, and Sinclair Broadcast Group. A graduate of Hillsdale College, Casey’s work has also appeared in Fox News, Fox Business, and USA Today.

Murkowski doesn’t blame Biden for recession, but asks him to move ahead on Willow Project in Alaska

U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski issued the following statement after the U.S. Department of Commerce released data showing real gross domestic product contracted by 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decline of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022. Two consecutive quarters of GDP decline indicate the U.S. economy is in recession.

“Between falling GDP, rising interest rates, high gas prices, the highest inflation in four decades, stagnating wage growth, and warning signs in the workforce and housing markets, there is no question that our economy is troubled. The Biden administration has a responsibility to face that head on, not to try to redefine what it means to be in a recession,” Murkowski said. “The current economic reality is hurting American families and businesses. This is not the time to spend or tax hundreds of billions more; it is time to start approving common sense development projects like Willow that will help bring down inflation, create jobs, and return our economy to growth—at no cost to taxpayers.”

The Willow project is supposedly supported by the Biden Administration, but was held up by a judge who remanded the record of decision back to the Bureau of Land Management on Aug. 18, 2021. The agency came forward with a partial environmental impact statement, but is slow-walking its response to the court decision; the Biden Administration is manipulated by the environmental nonprofit organizations that overly influence the Administration and ignore or run circles around the declining president.

Murkowski may or may not be influential with Biden, but she was a vocal opponent of President Donald Trump, who acted quickly in his presidency to open up opportunity for Alaska’s economy, pushed the Willow Project, and led America to what was arguably the most successful economy in history.

The Willow Project is in the Northeast corner of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. The area holds about 600 million barrels of oil, or more than is currently left in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But it will take years to bring that oil to market, with the lawsuits and delays from the government. It is not the answer to the immediate supply problem with energy.

Meanwhile, the Biden Administration announced it will sell an additional 20 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, after releasing one million barrels per day from the reserve since March.

The SPR is the national energy security vault that is held in salt caverns on the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Created following the 1973 energy crisis and having storage capacity of up to 713.5 million barrels, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently holds the lowest level reserve since 1987, with just 538 million barrels.

Seattle is now an ‘abortion sanctuary city’

Seattle has made itself the abortion magnet of the Northwest. The Seattle City Council voted Tuesday to make the city a sanctuary for the abortion industry. The action means abortion providers and patients cannot be arrested or investigated by police or prosecuted by a district attorney.

It is also an opportunity for the city to become an abortion tourism center in the Northwest.

The vote is largely symbolic, since abortion is legal across Washington state. But the bill prevents police from arresting those who have crossed state lines for an abortion in Seattle, from jurisdictions that consider abortion to be murder.

Seattle Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a member of the Socialist Alternative party, introduced the ordinance at a news conference on the day the U.S. Supreme Court announced its decision reversing Roe v. Wade, the The Seattle Times reported. All six city council members who were present at the meeting voted in favor of the legislation, with three members absent.

“Laws violating basic bodily autonomy and criminalizing reproductive health care are fundamentally unjust and we should not allow Seattle to be complicit,” Sawant said at her press conference. She said 5,500 people had signed a petition supporting the ordinance, which says that even unlicensed abortion providers will not be subject to legal action, so long as abortion is “within the scope of their practice.”

“Let anyone frightened by draconian anti-abortion laws come to Seattle without fear of prosecution,” Sawant said.

Fifty cities, many of them in Texas, have recently passed ordinances that outlaw abortions within their city limits, while others, like Seattle, are becoming abortion havens, since the repeal of Roe v. Wade on June 24.

The Alaska Constitution has been interpreted by the Alaska Supreme Court as protecting the right to an abortion all the way to the 40th week, or up until the moment of birth. The court considers it a matter of privacy for the pregnant mother, while ignoring the rights of the unborn.

Alaska Right to Life is circulating a petition to have the Kenai City Council declare Kenai a sanctuary city for the unborn with a “Personhood Resolution.” The petition is at this link.

Half dozen F-22s moved from JBER to Poland

The U.S. Air Force is moving six F-22 Raptors from Alaska to Poland, as the military effort expands to protect NATO allies against Russian aggression, which has created tensions across Eastern Europe after the Russia invasion of Ukraine.

The six F-22s are coming from the 90th Fighter Squadron, 3rd Wing, Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson outside of Anchorage, and arrived Tuesday at Royal Air Force Lakenheath in England.

The warbirds will next land at the 32nd Tactical Air Base in Łask, Poland, “ensuring NATO Allies are better able to safeguard and protect Alliance territory,” an Air Force press release said. The aircraft will be supporting air shielding as the 90th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron.

“The NATO Air Shielding mission integrates Allied Air and Surface Based Air and Missile Defence units into the NATO Integrated Air and Missile Defence system under NATO Command and Control. It will provide a near seamless shield from the Baltic to Black Seas, ensuring NATO Allies are better able to safeguard and protect Alliance territory, populations and forces from air and missile threat,” the Air Force statement said.

“The fifth generation capability contributes to the Air Shielding mission with its ability to provide lethality and survivability against any emerging high end threats. The Raptor performs both air-to-air and air-to-ground missions allowing full realization of operational concepts vital to the 21st century Air Force. Integration with NATO Allies and Partners further demonstrates the Alliance’s dedication to deter and defend in an increasingly complex and changing security environment.”

“The Raptor is a critical component of the global strike Task Force, and designed to project air dominance, rapidly and at great distances to defeat threats attempting to deny access to our nation’s Army, Navy and Marine Corps. It cannot be matched by any known or projected fighter aircraft, making it a highly strategic platform to support NATO Air Shielding.”

Dunleavy joins lawsuit against Biden over ‘accept federal neo-gender ideology or lose school lunch funding’

The Biden Administration is about to steal the lunch money of millions of students, if school districts don’t allow boys to be girls and girls to be boys.

Last month, 26 attorneys general, including Alaska’s Attorney General Treg Taylor, wrote to President Biden expressing concern over a new interpretation of the gender terms of Title IX, the federal legislation that protects girls and women’s athletics in schools. The Biden Administration has widened the definitions of what it means to be female so that any school that does not adapt to leftist gender ideology will be starved of school lunch funding.

Now, 22 states, including Alaska, are suing the Biden Administration over the demands that schools adopt the leftist transgender policies in order to qualify for assistance through the Department of Agriculture. The lawsuit is being led by Indiana Attorney General Todd Rosita and Tennessee AG Herbert H. Slattery III. Lawsuits such as these are generally filed in jurisdictions that have more conservative courts, unlike the West Coast’s Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.

“We all know the Biden administration is dead-set on imposing an extreme left-wing agenda on Americans nationwide,” Indiana’s Attorney General Rokita said. “But they’ve reached a new level of shamelessness with this ploy of holding up food assistance for low-income kids unless schools do the Left’s bidding.”

The lawsuit names the U.S. Department of Agriculture as defendant, after the department’s Food and Nutrition Services issued guidance to states, announcing that discrimination on the basis of sex in Title IX and the Food and Nutrition Act includes discrimination on the basis of “sexual orientation and gender identity.” That means schools have to let boys compete with girls in girls’ divisions and use girls’ locker rooms and bathrooms.

This new guidance has jeopardized states’ Title IX and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) school lunch funding.

In the lawsuit, the states argue the USDA’s guidance is unlawful for several reasons, including that it is based on a misapplication of U.S. Supreme Court precedents.

The Biden administration’s actions will inevitably result in regulatory chaos that threatens essential nutritional services to children from low-income homes, the lawsuit says.

The National School Lunch Program services nearly 30 million schoolchildren each day, many who rely on it for breakfast, lunch, or both. Approximately 100,000 public and non-profit private schools and residential childcare institutions receive federal funding to provide subsidized free or reduced-price meals for qualifying children.

Attorney General Rokita recently won a legal battle over neo-gender ideology, when a U.S. district court barred the Biden administration from enforcing federal “guidance” to coerce schools and employers to kowtow to transgender extremism.

The latest lawsuit is linked here.