New poll shows Nick Begich beats Democrat Mary Peltola, but Palin will lose to her in Alaska’s ranked choice voting

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A poll by Alaska Survey Research shows Nick Begich and Sarah Palin are neck-and-neck, with Begich having a slight advantage among likely voters on Aug. 16, in the three-way special general election to fill out Congressman Don Young’s term. This is the second public poll that shows Palin losing in a matchup with Democrat Mary Peltola.

In the first survey of voters since the Trump rally on June 9 in Anchorage, the survey shows that for the first round of counting in the ranked choice scenario, Palin actually comes in third:

  • Democrat Mary Peltola: 41.1%
  • Republican Nick Begich: 29.6%
  • Republican Sarah Palin: 29.4%

For round two, Palin is eliminated, leaving the final showdown between Begich and Peltola, according to this poll, the most current publicly available polling information that takes in account the ranked choice voting system.

In the round 2 counting of this universe of voters, Begich wins 54.7% to Peltola’s 45.3%.

In a hypothetical round where Begich is eliminated, Peltola would win in a matchup with Palin, 51-49%, the survey predicts.

Ivan Moore, who owns Alaska Survey Research, ran the analytics, which show Palin has just 15% chance of winning on Aug. 16.

“For the math nerds, a little playing around with standard errors and normal distribution tables yields the following probabilities of being Alaska’s next Congressional Representative: Begich 50% Peltola 35% Palin 15%,” he said.

“That’s Palin’s negative rating coming into play right there,” he said. Palin’s negative rating is 61% among registered voters, and her positive rating is 31%, a little more than she received in the special primary election in June.

“The results are even more compelling if we tighten the screen and just look at the 928 voters who said they’re ‘certain’ to vote in the primary. Begich still pips Palin in the three way, going on to beat Peltola 53-47. The hypothetical Peltola-Palin matchup is 52-48,” he said, with Peltola, once again, beating Palin.

Alaska Survey Research conducted the poll on July 20-25, with a universe of 1,423 registered Alaska voters. Of those, 1,219 were likely primary voters, and 967 were “certain” to vote.

55 COMMENTS

  1. Happy Alaska? You bought all this. Ranked choice, Palin, all of it.

    When Mary is elected to the House, you did it to yourselves. With an assist by Mike Porcaro.

    • Hey Skippy, in case you were unaware, this is MRAK; a rather conservative-leaning following. Very few, if any, on this board “bought all this” Ranked Choice Voting rigamarole. Your comment should be directed to a leftist group somewhere.

      • Ok tough guy. Let’s look at the inaction of so called conservatives in the last few elections. As in not voting. Asian not being involved in your local public schools. As in not being involved in grassroots party politics. Sitting on your asses as the Assembly violated your most basic rights during Covid. Not forcing AQD out as mayor.

        It makes my head spin how many people call Porcaro asking how to vote.

        On consideration, do noting Dunleavy is the perfect leader for the AK GOP. Neither does a damn thing when it matters. But they are good at running their mouths.

        Sitting on your ass and not getting involved IS a vote. For the left.

        The left gets involved, is active, and votes in bigger numbers.

        So yes, tough guy, it’s on you. You didn’t care enough to stop it.
        That you got so whiny tells me I hit your particular nail directly on it’s lazy head.

    • Prop 2 was losing by a healthy margin, until they spent ten days counting “mail-in” ballots, after the polls closed. The day the polls closed, and prop 2 looked like it might have been defeated, I predicted when the were done with the totally legitimate (I swear) mail-in ballots prop 2 would miraculously win. I told that prediction to everyone I knew, and 10 days later I was proven correct. I’m either a human polling firm or something was so obviously amiss in 2020 that I knew that prop 2 couldn’t lose even if it lost.

  2. Too close to call. What the poll indicates is that Palin voters vote Nick #2 and Begich voters vote less for Palin #2 – thus committing politicide by electing a far left Democrat. All true conservatives must vote Palin as their first or second choice. Even if Nick doesn’t win, he gets another shot at it in 3 months.

    • I saw the same thing. Why are so many Begich supporters not putting Palin as their second choice? 59% of Alaskans are voting for a Republican on first vote. How in the world would a Republicn not win this with RCV? Come on people, rank both Republicans 1 and 2. Which one is first is up to you.

      • “……..Why are so many Begich supporters not putting Palin as their second choice?……”
        Classic Republican stupidity. This is how Billary first attained power in 1992. Ross Perot, calling G.H.W Bush everything (including white man) and splitting the party enough for Billary to win, which changed the nation forever, effectively ending our republic and turning it into into a federal empire much like Julius Caesar did in 49 BC.

    • Palin will not drop out no matter what, im sorry to say. Win or loses will stay in, and her Palinbots will be in detail.

    • I’m leaning towards Begich because he got in early and seems to draw support from the right people. However, he is hard to research. His own website says next to nothing which concerns me. Not thrilled with Palin but definitely better than Peltola. Pretty reliable on social issues but not so much on fiscal. Kind of like Young. Absolutely going to rank both Begich and Palin in the top two slots. If the conservative majority (?) does this, then locking out Peltola should be pretty simple. However, never underestimate the conservative ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

    • That lesser of two evils mentality got us where we are today, so forgive me if I don’t vote for anyone who writes a letter next to their name. Palin proved to me that she is a hypocrite, and a coward, so I’m not electing her too anything. The reasoning you are using is the same logic that enables people like Mitt Romney and Mitch McConnell stay in power.

  3. “In a hypothetical round where Begich is eliminated”.

    This is a very weird article. Look, Begich won’t get eliminated at any stage of RCV, and the article gives no path to how this happening. This reads like an anti-RCV article with no meaningful info, and not worthy of SD usual quality IMO.

    Myself, I think RCV is the fairest voting method around, and very simple to boot: each round all choices tallied & the lowest guy is eliminated, repeat until 50%. And this fair method will help conservatives IMO who now won’t be afraid to vote for the trad for fear of some liberal wacko getting in. Case in point in this election: Begich will win, Palin will go, as it should be.

      • Good point. My only interest was that SD wrote a concerned article about it & she usually has quality conservative commentary. Except for RCV for some reason. So many conservatives seem to have RCV Derangement Syndrome, much like liberals have Trump Derangement Syndrome or Russia Gate Syndrome.

    • “……..Case in point in this election: Begich will win, Palin will go, as it should be.”
      Your certainty is amusing, considering the fact that a ranked choice election has yet to occur. To believe the lawyer/politician/journalist class, you must be quite young and naive, never having gotten screwed down by them yet. If Peltola wins, I’ll be thinking of you.

      • “To believe the lawyer/politician/journalist class, you must be quite young and naive”

        Sorry, 50+ here. And I can read polls and do statistical. math. Begich will win this one easy.

        Why? I have faith Conservatives aren’t too stupid to do RCV properly: 1. Nick Begich. 2. Sarah Palin. NB will win handily; RCV is designed exactly for this situation with NB & SP going head-to-head, so now Cons can vote for the real conservative (NB) without splitting the vote and giving it away to the liberal.

  4. Ivan Moore is not a credible source of information. Oh, the games he plays…

    That said, the Ex-Governor lacks most of the skills necessary to represent Alaska in Congress. If you listen closely to her, her positions on important issues amount to little more than sound bites. I will not vote for her under any circumstances. Have a nice day.

    • So what? Palin & The Liberal will lose to Begich. It will be an easy win for Begich, and prove how RCV works well for conservatives and gets rid of the fake Cons like Palin.

    • Why Begich, he’s been in the race longer, is the better candidate, and is beating Palin? Palin should drop out but she’s too arrogant and hollow minded to do so.

    • Michael Hankins July 29, 2022 At 10:14 am
      Begich needs to drop out. Problem solved.

      We’re all a little dumber for having seen that post.

    • You obviously love RINOs, so I think we should chip in to get you an African Safari trip for your birthday. If that is too expensive, I heard that being an audience member for a taping of The View is the material equivalent to watching a group of one-ton, semi-aquatic mammals.

  5. What this shows is that Palin supporters would vote for Begich, but Begich supporters would NOT vote for Palin. That’s hard to believe. Begich voters have to know that a finger licking populist is better than a dyed in the wool Marxist.

    • “What this shows is that Palin supporters would vote for Begich, but Begich supporters would NOT vote for Palin. That’s hard to believe…….”
      Not for me. It is precisely what I expect, and it is likely to end exactly as the pollster predicts. This is why ranked choice voting was sold to the public.

  6. Yeah!!! Sarah Wins. Ivan Moore polls always lie for lefties. I predict Sarah by 52% on August 16. Nick and Mary split the RINO Democrat vote each voting each other as
    first and second tiers.

    • “…….This state is rampant with voter fraud and will continue, sad but true.”
      And as corrupt as California or Louisiana………or more. Always has been. Always will be.

  7. Until we have a couple years of ranked choice voting behind us I wouldn’t even believe a credible pollster, and Moore is anything but that. Palin will do much better than Alaska elites want. I’m an Alaska deplorable myself. In a state where Trump can turn out the fervent thousands Palin is the most likely candidate to have the golden buzzer pressed and tickled.

  8. Peltola will win, our election system is compromised. She hits all the right buttons for the new Democrat candidate. No green or blue hair, no crazy eyes, no glasses. Real Native American female (not an Elizabeth Warren) and middle aged just like Haaland. You won’t see her give long speeches or take questions from the public either.

    • Right now according to ‘https://www.elections.alaska.gov/candidates/ there are three certified write-in candidates Chris Bye (Registered Libertarian), Robert Ornelas (American Independent Party), and Ernest Thomas (Registered Democrat).

      I plan on writing-in Chris Bye, it helps that it’s an easy name to remember and spell…huh Chris!

    • Democrat – anti-oil, pro-taxes, grows government, anti-business, fiscally irresponsible, and uses their position for personal gain/retribution.

      Yup, definitely two Democrats in this race and one conservative.

    • Agreed, Palin was the Democrat darling as Governor. Passed huge tax increases, had Berkowitz write her ethics policy, gave out massive free money, the size of government ballooned on her watch. She and Peltola are a dream come true for big government voters and the Palinbots are falling for it all over again because they get their news from the checkout stand.

    • KEN, The most profound statement you’ve made to date! Yes, Palin is a Democrat as evidenced by her endorsement of Billy Boy Walker and her irrational OIL TAX POLICY! Thank you Ken. Vote Nick #1 and Barbi Doll Wanna be Palin #2.

  9. Ranked choice is completely crazy.
    It robs the ends and pays the middle.
    Vote for only your favored Candidate.
    Like the old days.
    If your Candidate doesn’t win, and you are like me…
    Who cares.
    I don’t have a second choice.
    Otherwise, it is Roulette.
    Are you ready to bet $4,600 on 23?
    Good luck.

  10. Palin not only voted for the Democrats’ candidate Walker/Mallott, she endorsed him. That was the Democratic ticket for governor, not the Republican one.

    She was mad because Gov. Parnell undid the highest tax in Alaska history — her spawn-of-the-devil tax, ACES, that she wrote, worked with Democrats to pass, and she signed the dang thing after Democrats crammed more taxes into it than her original bill.

    Palin is a train wreck. Don’t let her ever get in a position to screw Alaska over again. Go to New York, Sarah. You’ve done enough damage here.

  11. Palin likes money and fame. She is not a leader but a quitter looking for the next headline about her. Remember she can see Russia from her window. She will support more spending and stupid stuff we can’t afford.

    • Much as I dislike the populist lib, Ms Palin, I believe her Russia quote was truthful & correct.
      She said to Charlie Gibson in her 1st national interview: ”
      “Their our next door neighbors, you can actually see Russia from land here in AK, from an island in Alaska”

      It was the ultra liberal Tina Fey from SNL that said ” I can see Russia from my house”
      So simple Americans & liberals (I repeat myself) think that is what she said, because they get some of their news from SNL

      Unfortunately we must pay attention to what the propagandists say, because the Leftist lie.

  12. 1. Nick Begich
    2. Sarah Palin

    THAT’S ALL! Sarah will vote correctly on the big things in congress, and she isn’t a commie 😉 like democrats.

    • Agree 100% Kenaimike. 1. Nick Begich. 2. Sarah Palin. But Begich will win easy anyway; the Palin vote is just insurance.

  13. Does anyone care that NB voted for Berky? True..? There was no smoke and mirrors there. EB was a known socialist. Im not a Palin fan but one could say she fell for Walkers rhetoric. I find it tough to accept but Berkowitz…….Sorry but if your dumb enough to vote for him, your not a conservative who pays attention or your a RINO through and through. Frankly nobody in this lineup is acceptable. Sarah will vote conservative on the big issues, has NRL endorsement, and is backed by DT. Right now, holding my nose and voting SP. That may change but its not likely.

    • Sarah worked incredibly hard working to get Nikki Haley, and Rand Paul. and TED CRUZ, elected. She used millions from Sarah PAC to help Tea Party candidates to get elected in smaller races and the MAGA ONE who said That I Owe Her– DONALD TRUMP. You spittled mouth Sarah Haters need to get over your gotcha phrases and see things through Trump’s future perspective. He is working to put people office he knows and trusts so that when he wins in 2024 he will have support from the House and Senate. He is big on trust, and he trusts Sarah. She will get the Trump vote on the first ballot and win with 51+ % . Just like she beat NB lll by 10% last month.

      • Excellent points.
        But her performance here in AK where WE live counts.
        It was a populist, liberal performance that gave our sovereign PF over to gov growing politicians, Alice Rogoff & her husband David Rubenstein’s “Carlyle Group”
        I won’t rank her.
        See Dana Kennedy’s excellent piece in yesterdays (7/30/22) NY Post for detailed info about how Rogoff, Rubenstein & their daughter (who lives here? … why?) are grooming our PF portfolio for there own gain.
        The 2 met working for Pres Carter …. Obama dined w/ Rogoff when he visited (invaded?) AK and President Joe & Jill had Thanksgiving dinner last year at Rubenstien’s mansion on Nantucket.
        These libs, that Palin helped, are raiding our P. Fund
        Disgusting,

  14. Please listen to me! I know Sarah better than anyone else. She’s a stage queen looking for more fame. She couldn’t care less about representing Alaska. If you vote for Sarah we will probably end up with Peltola. First Democrat from Alaska since NB3’s grandaddy. Vote for Nick Begich.

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