A poll by Alaska Survey Research shows Nick Begich and Sarah Palin are neck-and-neck, with Begich having a slight advantage among likely voters on Aug. 16, in the three-way special general election to fill out Congressman Don Young’s term. This is the second public poll that shows Palin losing in a matchup with Democrat Mary Peltola.
In the first survey of voters since the Trump rally on June 9 in Anchorage, the survey shows that for the first round of counting in the ranked choice scenario, Palin actually comes in third:
- Democrat Mary Peltola: 41.1%
- Republican Nick Begich: 29.6%
- Republican Sarah Palin: 29.4%
For round two, Palin is eliminated, leaving the final showdown between Begich and Peltola, according to this poll, the most current publicly available polling information that takes in account the ranked choice voting system.
In the round 2 counting of this universe of voters, Begich wins 54.7% to Peltola’s 45.3%.
In a hypothetical round where Begich is eliminated, Peltola would win in a matchup with Palin, 51-49%, the survey predicts.
Ivan Moore, who owns Alaska Survey Research, ran the analytics, which show Palin has just 15% chance of winning on Aug. 16.
“For the math nerds, a little playing around with standard errors and normal distribution tables yields the following probabilities of being Alaska’s next Congressional Representative: Begich 50% Peltola 35% Palin 15%,” he said.
“That’s Palin’s negative rating coming into play right there,” he said. Palin’s negative rating is 61% among registered voters, and her positive rating is 31%, a little more than she received in the special primary election in June.
“The results are even more compelling if we tighten the screen and just look at the 928 voters who said they’re ‘certain’ to vote in the primary. Begich still pips Palin in the three way, going on to beat Peltola 53-47. The hypothetical Peltola-Palin matchup is 52-48,” he said, with Peltola, once again, beating Palin.
Alaska Survey Research conducted the poll on July 20-25, with a universe of 1,423 registered Alaska voters. Of those, 1,219 were likely primary voters, and 967 were “certain” to vote.