By PAUL FUHS

The Ukraine conflict is front and center in the news these days. Big power confrontations over the big issues of national security.  So, what does this have to do with the Arctic?  We had nothing to do with the war in the first place.  We have always supported the idea of a “peaceful and prosperous Arctic.”

However, international sanctions related to the Ukraine conflict, as specifically listed below, have been very damaging to the interests of the people who live in the Arctic, particularly for Alaska. Even so, as good patriotic Americans, we didn’t speak out against our national leaders as they pursued what they perceived were our national security interests in the conflict.

But it’s a new day and a new president, who is determined to end the conflict as a humanitarian matter and a continuing war financing matter. The human losses and destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine has been devastating and the war has devolved into a WWI style trench warfare standoff, creating a no-win situation for both sides.

Whether before or after the conflict is settled, there is no reason to continue these damaging sanctions. But who will stand up for the people of Alaska and the Arctic? Fortunately for us, we have many people and organizations who can step up to the plate.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s and the end of communism in Russia, sincere efforts were made to establish collaboration and a more peaceful coexistence.

One of the most important efforts was the formation of formal agencies of Arctic cooperation which included all eight Arctic nations. Thus, the Arctic Council was formed to “Provide a means for promoting cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic States” to address “in particular, issues of sustainable develoment and environmental protection in the Arctic.”

Also formed were the Arctic Economic Council, the Northern Forum, the Arctic Mayor’s Forum, and the Arctic Coast Guard Forum, in which issues of military and national security were strictly excluded.

However, this peaceful good faith was swept up in the Ukraine conflict and swiftly cancelled. Only the Northern Forum, the coalition of Arctic states and regional governments, continued on, promoting best practices in Arctic resource development including mining, and a trans-arctic energy policy that included energy efficiency, alternative energy sources, and continued production of necessary fossil fuels. 

How did these sanctions affect Alaska and the Arctic? What have we lost, and what do we have to gain if cooperation can once again prosper through a settlement of the Ukraine conflict as proposed by President Trump?

Here are some examples:

1. Due to Arctic cooperation sanctions, Russia is no longer allowed to provide climate data from their section of the Arctic which is 40%.  I attended the COP29 climate conference in Azerbaijan to represent the Northern Forum, and the climate modelers there said their climate models no longer work without the Russian data. It is difficult to see how this can be justified since climate change is regularly presented as an “exisential threat” to the planet, and even the human race.
2. Prior to sanctions, Alaska oil field service firms had strong opportunities for work in Russian oil fields. With our substantial experience in Arctic oil field development, we were able to bring environmentally responsible practices there and bring the profits back to Alaska. Alaska companies like Lynden had huge operations in Sakhalin. These contracts were all cancelled by sanctions and the Chinese moved in to take their place.
3. Nordic country businesses were also prohibited from working in Russia. Nordic shipyards lost several contracts to build icebreakers for the Rosatomflot fleet.  These are now built in Russian or Chinese shipyards, contributing to their economies.
4. Due to European sanctions on Russian oil, it is now being diverted to Asian markets in China, India, and Japan, with crude oil now sailing through ice infested waters just off the coast of Alaska in the Bering Strait. This constitutes the highest level threat to food security in the Arctic.  In addition, the Arctic Coast Guard Forum excluded Russian participation. A coordinated vessel tracking, monitoring and emergency response system can substantially reduce these risks.  While Norway continues its cooperative prevention and response agreement with Russia, European countries have spoken out against anyone else working with Russia on any matter.
5. Russian oil is price sanctioned, creating an incentive for Asian nations to burn even more fossil fuel at a time when the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the planet.  In addition, this mandated lower pricing creates an energy price deficit, harming the economic competetiveness of Alaska’s gasline export project.
6. As the climate warms, fish are moving further North in the Bering Sea.  Due to sanctions, cooperative research operations for potential management plans with Alaska’s Department of Fish and Game were cancelled.  In the meantime, Russian fisheries operations North of the Bering Strait go on without restrictions.  Norway maintains its cooperative research and co management of fisheries agreements with Russia in the Barents Sea, but European countries object to anyone else cooperating with Russia.
7. The fluctuations in Alaska’s salmon stocks are an ongoing mystery.  We know how many juvenile fry leave our rivers and hatcheries, but very little about what happens in the open ocean.  A joint research project was initiated with Russia to determine food and predatory interactions in the Gulf of Alaska within the EEZ’s of both countries.  Due to sanctions, the project was cancelled because the research vessel was Russian.
8. Due to sanctions, Russia has increased their quotas of fish caught and dumped on the market, creating a destabilizing economic disaster for Alaskan communities and fishing businesses who lost $1.8 billion last year.  Counter sanctions have cost Alaskan fishermen $14 million per year in salmon caviar sales.
9. Alaska previously had convenient air routes directly to Russia, primarily through Petropavlavsk, which were cancelled.  This has harmed business, tourism, education, and cultural exchanges.

These sanctions have proven to be totally ineffective in creating any change in the policies of Russia.  We should be very proactive in encouraging our local, state, and federal political leaders to start now in proposing a resumption in Arctic cooperation to be included in any negotiated settlement of the Ukraine conflict.

Our governer, who has a strong relationship with President Trump, could advocate for Alaska.  Our congressional delegation certainly has connections to the State Department.  The Alaska Legislature has recently formed a Senate Arctic Affairs Committee that could address the issue and advise the rest of the legislature.  We will soon have another meeting of the Arctic Encounter in Anchorage and this issue should be a central topic of discussion. And of course, any Alaskan could contact any of the above to encourage them to advocate for Alaska.

This is not meant to favor or harm any country, but to recognize the common interests of the people who actually live here in this special place we call the Arctic.  We often remind those down South that the US is an Arctic nation because of Alaska.  We should expect them to start acting like it.

It seems President Trump is correct in stating that Ukraine membership in NATO and nuclear weapons on Russia’s border is the driving concern for their war in Ukraine, just as we in the US were concerned about Russian nuclear weapons being placed in Cuba during the 1960’s. A nuclear World War III was on the horizon. This was a special concern for us here in Alaska, since due to our strategic position and military bases, we would be a prime target.  As a freshman at Central Junior High School, our teachers were having us practice diving under our desks.

In October of 1964, our Department of Defense and Intelligence agencies were openly calling for an invasion of Cuba, not realizing that at least three of the nuclear silos were fully operational. Another intelligence failure. It took JFK and RFK to go around them and work out a deal with Russia to defuse the situation.

Will Donald Trump be the JFK of our Era?  We can only hope so.

Paul Fuhs is Arctic Goodwill Ambassador of The Northern Forum.