By PAUL FUHS
On behalf of the Northern Forum, a trans-Arctic association of Arctic states and regional governments, I attended COP29 (29th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) in Baku, Azerbaijan this month.
In technical diplomatic terms, the Northern Forum (northernforum.org) is a subnational governmental organization. Our guiding principle is “A Peaceful and Prosperous Arctic.”Gov. Wally Hickel led The Northern Forum’s organizational formation in 1991, and former Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and I, as Wally’s Commissioner of Commerce, set up the legal, administrative, and financial structures. I serve as the group’s Arctic Goodwill Ambassador.
We sponsored an Arctic Pavilion during the eight days of the conference where we held many panels and presentations on climate change from an Arctic perspective.
Our main goals at the conference were:
- Defending the Arctic against calls for discriminatory policies to eliminate all Arctic oil and gas production.
- Promoting trans Arctic cooperation and the resumption of the activities of the Arctic Council which have been cancelled due to sanctions of the Ukraine conflict.
- Advocating for safe shipping on the Northern Sea Route.
Let’s break down these three goals:
Discrimination against Arctic oil and gas
The European Union, and many U.S. and international nongovernmental organizations have taken the extreme position that “all Arctic oil and gas must remain in the ground.”
In response, we pointed out that of course we support alternative energy sources when they are practical. In fact, the Arctic is leading the world in renewable energy transition. Norway and Iceland 100%, Denmark 32%, Finland 25%, Sweden 55% and Alaska at 30%.
Shamefully, even after all the mandates and subsidies, the U.S. is only at 9% renewable energy and the European Union stands at 13%. We also pointed out that halting Arctic oil and gas development would not mean even one drop less oil being burned, it would just be produced somewhere else, usually under far less environmentally responsible standards.
The consensus was that this position of “all oil and gas must remain in the ground” was meaningless in reducing fossil fuel consumption and was just something politicians said to make it look like they were doing something, when, on balance, it is actually harmful.
As an example, we pointed out that at 500,000 barrels of oil per day, Alaska represents 2% of U.S. consumption. By comparison, the Alberta tar sands, the dirtiest oil in the world, provides 16% of U.S. consumption and they stand ready to replace Alaskan production. With current reserves, they claim they can produce 4 million barrels per day for the next 149 years. For the U.S., that is the alternative.
As for climate change, it’s not the 4 million people of the Arctic producing fossil fuels; it’s the 8 billion people of the rest of the world who are burning them. It is a consumption issue, not a production issue.
Resumption of Arctic Council Cooperation
Sanctions over the Ukraine conflict have halted the cooperative operations of the Arctic Council, which was established to address non-security issues. As a result, Russia is prohibited from reporting climate data even though Russia constitutes more than 40% of the Arctic. Climate modelers at COP29 openly lamented the loss of this data and say that their climate models do not work without it.
On of the items at stake are the ability to share best practices in renewable energy, engineering best practices for managing melting permafrost, cooperation in fisheries research and management, safe shipping practices and response capabilities on the Northern Sea Route. We advocated for an immediate resumption, or at least a provision in a negotiated settlement of the Ukraine situation, that we could immediately resume our Arctic cooperation. Hope was expressed at the conference that the election of Donald Trump would facilitate an end to the war.
Prevention Measures on the Northern Sea Route
Due to sanctions against Russian oil and gas in Europe, these shipments are being diverted through the Northen Sea Route to China, India and other Asian nations. The shipments of crude oil through ice covered waters presents a substantial risk. The panel discussing this issue focused on the extensive Russian monitoring of environmental conditions on the route. I promoted enhanced prevention measures and presented the offer from Alaska to jointly cooperate with Russia in the vessel tracking, monitoring and emergency response system of the Marine Exchange of Alaska Arctic Watch system. (mxak.org)
Other Conference issues
Negotiations at the conference revolved around transtitions to renewable energy and paying the developing nations of the world for climate change impacts and financing for alternative energy.
The subject of reparations to less developed nations was the real heart of the conference by the voting national delegates. A popular banner worn by activists at the conference was “Pay us $5 trillion dollars”. In the meantime, the European Union had put out an initial offer of $200 billion. Amidst protest by less developed nations, they settled upon $300 billion, although payment enforcement measures were considered weak.
The rest of the conference focused on energy efficiency and technical improvements in the production of alternative energy. One breakthrough of recycling was presented by a Singapore company that was offering a beer thay had made from processed sewage water although I must confess that I did not try it.
Our Arctic Pavilion was one of the few that presented an overall assessment of the history, current use and future projections of human energy consumption as represented in the graph below.
The clear conclusion is that rising energy demand is outpacing renewable energy capacities, requiring similar increases in fossil fuel production. And this increase is even before considering feeding the 730 people of the world who are starving and before the expected growth in human popluation from 8 billion today to a projected 11 billion by 2050. Food production, processing and distribution consumes 30% of overall energy use and people at least must be able to eat. It is estimated that by 2050 the world will need 70% more food production.
Artificial Intelligence is expected to provide another 160% increase in energy consumption in server farms. About 2 billion people of the world don’t have any modern energy and many are doing their cooking with dried cow dung. Their desire for a better standard of living is sure to create additional demands on energy production. The only time there was an actual reduction in world energy use was during covid and frankly, no one at the conference said they wanted to go back to that situation.
As human beings, we are also a major source of CO2 ourselves, emitting 2.3 pounds or 1 kilogram of CO2 per person per day. At 8 billion people, that is a lot of CO2, but we do have to breathe.
It is also projected that by 2050, production of plastics, synthetic fabrics and other materials will consume 50% of oil production, so it will be needed for quite some time. Although plastics have their own issues since they do not break down, they are probably the most effective carbon capture process to date.
Another point of reality we presented was that if the most ambitious of green transitions to electrification are realized, we are going to have to strip mine the planet for all the metals that will be needed. An electric vehicle takes 6 times as much metal as an internal combustion engine. Despite the obvious need for these metals in a non carbon transition, several of the organizations attending the conference have been involved in efforts to shut down Arctic and Alaskan mining projects.
The issue of sea level rise was also a large issue, since over the past couple of hundred years we have built up this massive infrastructure of housing, buildings, factories and ports at sea level and 95% of world trade is carried on the ocean. A rapid rise would have a substantial economic impact.
While we are entering the end of a period of glaciation, and temperatures and water levels would be expected to rise naturally, regardless of human impact, it is clear we are accelerating the rate of increase. I was able to provide some historical reference which was once given to me by an Inupiat elder from the North Slope, who told me “Yes, we have been here for at least 10,000 years at a time when the ocean levels were 300 feet below what they are today, so yes the oceans are rising and you people are just starting to figure that out?” He said with a wry smile… that was not mean spirited in any way. 300 feet of ocean level rise in the short period of 10,000 years….quite a sobering figure.
In the meantime, given the world’s trajectory of increased energy use and the practical limits of renewable energy, it seems that climate geoengineering in one form of another is going to have to be considered. There are several options, and we should at least be working with them now to test their effectiveness. However, most of the people at the conference were more interested in blaming the oil companies rather than considering this but it is probably where we are headed.
The country of Azerbaijan, which I must say did a wonderful job of managing a conference with 50,000 attendees, came under criticism for being a producer of oil and gas, just like the Arctic.
President Ilham Aliyev defended Azerbaijan’s progress in renewable energy and stated that “the fake news media, NGO’s and politicians” were “slandering and blackmailing them” when their CO2 emissions only represented 0.1%. He defended their right to produce, stating that “oil and gas are a gift of God” and that “oil, gas, wind, sun, gold, silver, copper, all… are natural resources and countries should not be blamed for having them and should not be blamed for bringing them to the market because the market needs them. People need them.”
Of course, a prevailing sense of uncertainty pervaded the conference, due to the election of Donald Trump as president. For better or worse, the rest of the world expects the U.S. to lead and foot the bill for whatever conclusions are reached. I think it’s at least safe to say that that a fresh set of eyes will be looking at this.
I was proud to represent our interests at the conference and we were well received, even though some may not have agreed with our approach. Nevertheless, we have to keep telling our story and defend our interests as Arctic people.
Paul Fuhs grew up in Anchorage, attending Denali Elementary, Central Junior High and graduated from West High in 1967. He was enlisted in US Army Military Intelligence, MOS 97 Delta, and a North Vietnamese linguist during the Vietnam War era, 1969-1971. He served as the commissioner of the Department of Commerce during the Hickel Administration and is one of the founders of Marine Exchange of Alaska, which was established to share information that aids safe, secure, efficient, and environmentally sound maritime operations in Alaska.
There is no climate crisis. Earth is doing what it has always done.
Mask avenger you are correct if these people want to do climate control then they need to step up and be first to give up fossil fuels if they’re serious about this. But as you and I know all the corporate jets and all the whiners still like to have their electricity, their heat and their transportation.
Great Article Paul
Yes, the Earth has gone through many freeze and thaw cycles.
In theory and in science, what we’re doing to the earth can harm it, and potentially change it into a climate like venus has. The United States, with all its mandates, is not in any way, shape or form. Green All the mandates attempt to do is to champion green changes in the way we drive, fly and live our lives. Most of the mandates aren’t effective because
They’re end result, is not green. You think lithium batteries are green? Their production process certainly isn’t, and neither is wind turbines in theory. The process of making them certainly isn’t green and possibly takes decades to erase. There’s some things that we can do that can make the situation better and maybe over time, technology will catch up to the bold talk and hypocrisy, currently taking place.
“Shamefully, even after all the mandates and subsidies, the U.S. is only at 9% renewable energy…”
There’s nothing to be ashamed of, Paul.
Almost a hundred thousand aging windmills? They aren’t replacing them when they wear out; they just leave them standing, abandoned, like an apocalyptic landscape. Thousands of square miles of decrepit solar panels that don’t last nearly as long as originally promised? If anything, how about all the dams that have reliably produced renewable energy that have since been removed for some other noble cause?
Go ahead and convert your own house to solar if you want (in spite of the installers’ claims, you will never actually recover your costs before you have to start replacing every single part of it), just stay away from mine.
While I can appreciate feeling a need to be in the room to track where the discussions are going, the theme of COP”XYZ” seems to be a shakedown opportunity for non-productive and self-serving types. And who knows? Sharing real science and facts – like polar bears are doing just fine, the earth is producing more food per hectare with higher levels of CO2 (not a poisonous gas to plants, apparently) and if energy is cheap and plentiful, standards of living rise and populations stabilize – might change a very few minds there. But I doubt it. Too many still believe the popular narrative that a necessary and helpful gas that makes up .04% of the atmosphere is driving everything. Even auto manufacturers – run by the Ivy League’s Best and Brightest are begging the new administration to keep EV subsidies and deadlines. Sheesh.
I suggest taking a stroll through “Apocalypse Never” by former climate activist Michael Shellenberger just for fun and encouragement. A review of “Factfullness” by Hans Rowling is a real treat, as well. Alaska (and Canada) can help the planet by producing energy using the most environmentally friendly ways possible these days.
Certainly better than China. Ever wonder why the CCP funds climate alarmist NGOs around the world at the same time they are lighting off a new coal plant every week? Sounds like a sprinter who says “Hey! Your shoe is untied!” right before the starting gun.
The wbole thing is a shakedown racket! ” pay usTRILLION$$$ or booga-booga!! The oceans will rise!”
Amen masked. We are slowly returning to the next ice age.
This seems to be just like the WEF. Global elites gather to decide how we should live and use the threat of climate change as their sword. Just like NATO and the Paris Climate Accord, the US is expected to foot the bill for all of this while reducing our production and consumption. So glad Trump is in office. BTW, in Azerbaijan how many private jets were piled up on the tarmac, how many mega yachts in the harbor?
“Shamefully, even after all the mandates and subsidies, the U.S. is only at 9% renewable energy and the European Union stands at 13%.” It is a shame we are playing at all in this made up Crisis to grift the wealth away from the worlds producers and reward those that do not!
These “Renewables” do more damage to the world than our traditional fuels but we are to pretend they are better! Then with this ESG and Carbon nonsense we are taking a harmless 0.03% of the atmosphere gas that we all need to survive ,capturing it, and compressing it into a Deadly Bio Weapon, then pumping it thru communities to storage facilities to place it in the ground FOREVER! Another Environmental Grift to enslave the masses even more! Watch ‘https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llcvrKDJRo0 “Pipeline deception” The truth is out there you have to have the guts to see it!
Cant even see the top of the buildings in Bejing because of the pollution.That seems like a more logical place to start.
Where is Greta Thunberg when we need her?
Zi Jinping has a box of kleenex for her when she arrives.
Hopefully John Kerry will deliver her on his private jet and the Chinese will adopt them both and keep them both for amusement.
HIDE THE DECLINE WITH MIKE’S NATURE TRICK!
cre·dence
/ˈkrēdns/
noun
1.
belief in or acceptance of something as true.
as in ‘lend credence to’.
scam
/skam/
nouninformal
a dishonest scheme; a fraud.
Thank you for this thoughtful and informative report on the event from an Alaskan’s perspective.
If the people complaining REALLY want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions stop mass immigration into the west from the 3rd world. Period. End of story.
We’ve been lectured for over 50 years that western lifestyles are destroying the world. Almost 150 million people and their children have come into America. Similar numbers for Europe.
Instead of letting the west naturally come to stable population sizes we’ve spent trillions on food aid and development on the 3rd world and taken in their population surplus.
Who is going to reduce greenhouse gasses in the year 2100 where Africa is projected to have 4 billion people, india to have 2.5 billion people, and China to have 2 billion people.
Paul this statement is Climate Change propaganda “Shamefully, even after all the mandates and subsidies, the U.S. is only at 9% renewable energy and the European Union stands at 13%. We also pointed out that halting Arctic oil and gas development would not mean even one drop less oil being burned, it would just be produced somewhere else, usually under far less environmentally responsible standards.”
Although “mandates and subsidies” is the real ripoff by you elites… What benefits do you get from this propaganda?
Status as the big mouth spoke piece! Please we that are paying attention don’t buy your message! Again where in that statement is Alaska/America First? Please respond to me with your twists… Liberty Ed