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Late-night count: 21K more ballots finished, District 25 flips to Democrat Schrage

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Another 21,000 ballots were counted and posted on the Division of Elections website after 11:30 pm on Tuesday.

263,645 ballots have been counted. While Ballot Measure 2 lost some more ground, Rep. Mel Gillis in District 25 saw his lead disappear to Indie-Democrat Calvin Schrage.

Here’s where some of the races stand as of midnight, Nov. 10:

Ballot Measure 1 is losing 60.70% to 39.30%. Earlier in the night it was 61.58% to 38.42%. This is the measure that would increase taxes on oil. The proponents would need to get 75 of the remaining vote to win, and 25 percent of the remaining vote is Republican.

Ballot Measure 2 is losing with 47.51% for and 52.49% against. Earlier in the night, it was 46.69-53.31%. In other words, the “no” side is slipping.

This is the measure that would scramble Alaska elections into a ranked-choice system and jungle primary.

All results here.


Biden / Harris had 64,246 on election night, now at 102,080 votes, 38.91%

Trump / Pence had 118,844 on election night, now at 148,624 votes, 56.65%

Of note, in 2016, Hillary Clinton received 36.55% of the vote, and Donald Trump received 51.28% in the final count of the 318,608 votes counted. In 2020, Trump is doing even better in Alaska than he did four years ago.


Al Gross had 61,364 on election night, now at 97,608, 37.45%.

Sen. Dan Sullivan had 119,174 on election night, now at 149,669, 57.42%.

Of note, this is Sen. Sullivan’s first run for reelection. In 2014, he won against one-term incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Begich, 48-46%.


Alyse Galvin had 69,674 on election night, now at 108,269, 41.71%.

Congressman Don Young had 119,999 on election night, now at 150,443, 57.95%.

Of note, in 2016, Steve Lindbeck received 36.02% of the vote and Congressman Don Young received 50.32% of the vote of the 308,198 votes counted. In 2018, Young won 53.08% to Alyse Galvin’s 46.50%.

Tonight Galvin needs more than 73 percent of the remaining ballots to win against the Dean of the House. 


District 1: The race tightened up between Rep. Bart LeBon and Christopher Quist, now is 55-44%, but LeBon is ahead, 3,720 to 2,989.


District 4: Republican Keith Kurber vs. Democrat Rep. Grier Hopkins. Hopkins is in the lead 55-44, with 6,006 to 4,781.


District 5: Republican challenger Kevin McKinley fell behind Democrat Rep. Adam Wool. Wool leads 53-47, 4,289 to 3,807.


District 15: Republican David Nelson leads Democrat Lyn Franks, 51-49, 2,321 to 2,206.


District 16: Republican challenger Paul Bauer is losing to Democrat Rep. Ivy Spohnholz; she is ahead 53-40, 3,778 to 2,890.


District 21: Democrat Rep. Matt Claman has the lead 61-38, over Lynette Largent. 5,178 to 3,241.


District 23: Kathy Henslee, the Republican was leading Democrat Rep. Chris Tuck, but Tuck is now ahead 47-44, 3,231 to 2,976.


District 25: Democrat Calvin Schrage has pulled ahead of Republican Rep. Mel Gillis 52-48, 4,316 to 3,936.


District 27: Republican Rep. Lance Pruitt still has 61 percent. This district had no votes counted today, so is the same.


District 31: Republican Rep. Sarah Vance vs. challenger Kelly Cooper. No votes counted today.


Senate Seat B: Republican Rob Myers, 10,169; Marna Sanford, 7,047.

The numbers from earlier in the night at this link:

Murkowski, Romney, Collins and Sasse congratulate Biden

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Four moderate Republican senators have put out statements congratulating Joe Biden on his election victory.

Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah, Ben Sasse of Nebraska, and Susan Collins of Maine, broke away from the rest of the Republican senators, who have urged President Donald Trump to not concede until matters involving reported widespread fraud are resolved, or at least until legal challenges and recounts are settled.

“Tonight, he declared victory and pledged to be a president who represents all Americans,” Murkowski wrote over the weekend. “I congratulate President-elect Biden and Vice President-elect Harris and will be ready to work with their administration when it takes office.”

“We may not always agree, I will work with them to do what is right for Alaska—just as I will continue to emphasize collaboration and bipartisanship with my colleagues in a narrowly divided Senate,” Murkowski said.

Congressman Don Young also congratulated Biden on his win. “President-elect Biden has tremendous work ahead of him. Today, a long, hard-fought, and contentious presidential election appears to be behind us. It is time to put the election behind us, and come together to work for a better tomorrow for our nation.”

Gov. Mike Dunleavy was more circumspect: “I for one will support our President’s efforts to ensure that the election is completed with integrity. Let us hope and pray that it is.”

Election update: Young, Sullivan still far ahead, as both ballot measures failing

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With 192,918 votes already counted before today, the Division of Elections counted more ballots from various districts in the state. This story will be updated.

Must Read Alaska has learned that over 95,000 votes remain to be counted.

The total ballots counted is now at 242,665, and the first numbers have been released to the Division of Elections website, with more on the way later tonight, Nov. 10.

Ballot Measure 1 is losing 61.58% to 38.42% with 234,848 votes counted. This is the measure that would increase taxes on oil. The proponents would need to get 75 of the remaining vote to win, and 25 percent of the remaining vote is Republican. The latest tranche of ballot counting broke 51-49 for the measure. The “no” team lost only 800 votes in tonight’s count. The 54,000 vote lead was eroded to the point where “the fat lady has sung.”

Ballot Measure 2 is losing 53.31% to 46.69% with 234,272 votes counted. This is the measure that would scramble Alaska elections into a ranked-choice system and jungle primary. This ballot measure could end up passing because there are a lot of votes still to be counted and it is doing better than some people expected. It’s still losing but among the votes counted today, 18% were “yes” votes. If it continues in this vein, Ballot Measure 2 will pass with 3,600 votes.


Biden / Harris had 64,246 on election night, now at 91,497 votes, 37.9%

Trump / Pence had 118,844 on election night, now at 139,264 votes, 57.67%

Of note, in 2016, Hillary Clinton received 36.55% of the vote, and Donald Trump received 51.28% in the final count of the 318,608 votes counted. In 2020, Trump is doing even better in Alaska than he did four years ago.


Al Gross had 61,364 on election night, now at 87,445, 36%.

Sen. Dan Sullivan had 119,174 on election night, now at 140,440, 58%.

Of note, this is Sen. Sullivan’s first run for reelection. In 2014, he won against one-term incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Begich, 48-46%.


Alyse Galvin had 69,674 on election night, now at 97,420, 40.69%.

Congressman Don Young had 119,999 on election night, now 141,181, 59%.

Of note, in 2016, Steve Lindbeck received 36.02% of the vote and Congressman Don Young received 50.32% of the vote of the 308,198 votes counted. In 2018, Young won 53.08% to Alyse Galvin’s 46.50%.

Tonight she needs nearly 73 percent of the remaining ballots to win against the Dean of the House.


District 1: The race tightened up between Rep. Bart LeBon and Christopher Quist, now is 55-44%, but LeBon still is 700+ votes ahead.


District 4: Republican Keith Kurber vs. Democrat Rep. Grier Hopkins. Hopkins has flipped into the lead 52-47, with about 343 votes separating them.


District 5: Republican challenger Kevin McKinley fell behind Democrat Rep. Adam Wool. Wool leads 51-49, with 154 votes separating them.


District 15: Republican David Nelson leads Democrat Lyn Franks, 52-48, and is ahead by 146 votes in this low-turnout district.


District 16: Republican challenger Paul Bauer is now losing to Democrat Rep. Ivy Spohnholz; she is ahead 53-40, with a 978-vote lead.


District 21: Democrat Rep. Matt Claman recaptured the lead 61-38, over Lynette Largent,


District 23: Kathy Henslee, the Republican was leading Democrat Rep. Chris Tuck, but he is now ahead 48-43. Tuck is up by 313 votes.


District 25: Republican Rep. Mel Gillis still leads against challenger Calvin Schrage, 51-49; 166 votes separate them. About 2,000 votes remain in this race. Schrage could close the gap.


District 27: Republican Rep. Lance Pruitt still has 61 percent. This district had no votes counted today, so is the same.


District 31: Republican Rep. Sarah Vance vs. challenger Kelly Cooper. No votes counted today.


Biden’s transition teams have strong Obama credentials, begin work with no Alaskans to be seen

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The transition teams for the possible Biden-Harris Administration have been published, and it’s not looking good for Alaska. Must Read Alaska has reviewed the transition teams and hasn’t found a single Alaskan on the list. But it’s early. There’s still time for Alaska Democrats to get involved.

The transition teams gather resumes and start scouting for true believers to put into key appointments throughout the government. As they do their work, another group of partisans are embedded in agencies, often called “beachhead teams,” to ensure the departing administration doesn’t get away with too much during the transition.

For Alaska, the Department of Interior and the EPA are always top concerns.

For the Interior transition team, the transition team reads like the yearbook from the Obama Administration’s DOI team:

Kevin Washburn, Team Lead, Dean of the University of Iowa College of Law, was appointed by President Obama as the Assistant Secretary of Indian Affairs (BIA) at the U.S. Department of the Interior. He served in that role until January of 2016.
Bob Anderson, Harvard Law School, Oneida Indian Nation Visiting Professor of Law. Specializes in tribal sovereignty.
Bret Birdsong, The Nevada System of Higher Education, he was appointed by the Obama administration to serve as deputy solicitor for land resources at the U.S. Department of Interior in Washington D.C.
Shannon Estenoz, The Everglades Foundation, was President Obama’s federal point person for Everglades restoration.
Chris Goranson, Carnegie Mellon University, The Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy, he was residential Innovation Fellow in the Obama Administration.
Janie Hipp, Native American Agriculture Fund. Hipp served under Barack Obama as the director of the Office of Tribal Relations of the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Kate Kelly, Center for American Progress, she served in the Obama administration at the Interior Department.
Elizabeth Klein, New York University, School of Law, State Energy & Environmental Impact Center. She was former deputy assistant secretary, policy, management & budget in the Department of Interior under the Obama Administration and worked at DOI in the Clinton Administration. At her work at NYU, with Director David Hayes, the two have sued the Department of Interior over Arctic lease sales.
Amanda Leiter, American University, Washington College of Law, Professor of Law and the Director of the Program on Environmental and Energy Law.
Molly McUsic, Wyss Foundation,
Maggie Thomas, Evergreen Action, Obama Administration at the White House Council on Environmental Quality 
Tanya Trujillo, Colorado River Sustainability Campaign

At the EPA transition team, a very strong bias emerges toward Obama-era policies, led by a Vice President of Earthjustice:

Patrice Simms, Team LeadEarthjustice. Former Deputy Assistant Attorney General in the U.S. Department of Justice’s Environment and Natural Resources Division.
Amanda AguirreBlue Crab Strategies, Director of Public Engagement & Environmental Education, US Environmental Protection Agency
Ann DunkinDell Technologies, Environmental Protection Agency CIO under President Obama
Matt FritzLatham & Watkins, LLP, senior advisor to the EPA Administrator during Obama Administration.
Lisa GarciaGrist Magazine, Inc., led the EPA’s environmental-justice work under President Obama, 
Cynthia GilesHarvard Environmental and Energy Law Program, former Assistant Administrator for EPA’s Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance for the entire Obama Presidency
Joseph GoffmanHarvard Law School, Associate Assistant Administrator for Climate/Senior Counsel, Office of Air and Radiation, US Environmental Protection Agency
Ken KopocisAmerican University, Washington College of Law, former assistant administrators of the EPA under Obama.
Michael McCabeSelf-employed, former Regional Administrator, and later Deputy Administrator of the United States Environmental Protection Agency, Clinton, Bush Administration
Billie McGranePA Democratic Party
Alejandra NunezThe Sierra Club
Luseni PiehSelf-employed, Deputy Chief of Staff for Programs and Strategic Initiatives at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for Obama.

Reinbold wonders if Dunleavy should step aside, calls his mandates ‘socialist’

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By DAN FAGAN

Republican Sen. Lora Reinbold is measured, calm, mild-mannered, and agreeable – said no one ever. Reinbold is a pint-sized fighter. But when she sets her sights on you – watch out – she’s swinging for the knockout. 

Reinbold has launched an all-out jihad against fellow conservative and Mat-Su Valley Republican, Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Reinbold has consistently badgered “Big Mike” with over-the-top rhetoric for most of his term. Reinbold has appointed herself as Dunleavy’s chief antagonist and most formidable political threat from the right.   

Will she run against him in the primary? As Gov. Sarah Palin used to say, “you betcha!” 

On Sunday, Reinbold posted on her Facebook page a post describing the governor’s extension of the COVID-19 Emergency Declaration as socialist.

“It looks like Commission (sic), Commander Crum, and Gov. D hired Dr. Zink to tell a story of why medical tyranny is so important for Alaska via health alerts and mandates,” posted Reinbold. 

“Each time I read his (Dunleavy’s) March 11 ‘Disaster Declaration’ I now see it as their way to fear monger, using COVID-19 as their front, to gain immense control over our lives.”

But has Dunleavy really tried to gain “immense control over our lives?” 

If anything, his extending the COVID-19 Emergency Declaration frees up health care providers, and does not limit the private sector’s ability to function or even flourish, unlike the unreasonable, harsh, and job-killing restrictions put in place by Anchorage city leaders. 

Dunleavy, much like President Donald Trump, has allowed local government leaders to determine how to deal with the spread of the coronavirus. 

His emergency declaration extension allows hospitals continued flexibility and the ability to overcome burdensome regulations when treating the virus. It allows for more telehealth instead of in-person visit requirements. The extension also allows hospitals to set up new temporary facilities to house patients if they become overcrowded. 

The extension also keeps open the Joint Incident Command Center and keeps federal funds flowing into the state to help with dealing with the virus.  

There are also practical benefits to extending the extension. It allows businesses the ability to sell alcohol curbside, so customers don’t need to come inside.  

“The new disaster declaration will continue to provide certainty to Alaska’s health care system and Alaskans during this pandemic while avoiding any disruption to the state’s economy,” said Jeff Turner, the governor’s deputy press secretary.

There’s not a single component of Dunleavy’s disaster declaration that hurts the private sector. Yet Reinbold makes it seem like the governor and his team are an Alaska version of Bernie Sanders. 

“Sadly, they have unleashed a constitutional, economic, educational, and emotional crisis on Alaskans,” Reinbold posted on Facebook. ”Many of the mandates and health alerts are not only ridiculous, but they are scientifically unsubstantiated, many are unconstitutional and it’s easy to predict, they have created more harm than good.” 

Reinbold even went to the extreme of asking if its time for Zink, Crum, and Dunleavy to “step aside.” 

Reinbold also called for the governor to “ask God’s forgiveness and forgiveness of Alaskans for the damage done to Alaska and Alaskans.” 

To say Reinbold is prone to fits of wildly emotional hysterics is an understatement. 

The truth is, Dunleavy has been much more measured in his approach to COVID-19 than most governors. 33 governors have issued statewide face mask mandates. Other governors have limited the size of gatherings including for churches. Dunleavy has done none of that. 

The governor does not have the authority to stop the over the top tyranny placed on the private sector by the hard-core Leftists running the city of Anchorage. 

Even conservative Assembly member Jamie Allard agrees the governor is not to blame for the assault on the freedoms of Anchorage citizens. Allard has criticized the governor in the past for not speaking out more about the issue. But unlike Reinbold, her criticism ends there. 

“Anchorage municipalities extreme mandates and their enforcements have proven ineffective,” writes Allard. “Anchorage should follow Gov. Dunleavy’s lead when he stated Alaska is open for business.”  

If Reinbold was really upset about constitutional rights being violated, she should funnel her rage-filled Facebook posts toward the real culprits, the Anchorage Assembly’s liberal majority and mayor. 

But that wouldn’t help her in the Republican primary two years from now when she runs against Dunleavy. 

Dan Fagan hosts the number one rated morning drive talk show in Alaska on Newsradio 650 KENI. Dan splits his time between Anchorage and New Orleans. 

MRAK’s crystal ball: Sullivan to win by 7 points over Gross

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Based on Election Day returns, the number of uncounted absentee and early ballots, and what is known about these voters, Alan Gross has no realistic path to victory.

Some 62,000 votes will be counted and announced on Tuesday, Nov. 10, after 5 pm. The votes will be announced in two batches, one at 5 pm, and one much later in the evening, when election officials finish their work for the day.
 
Assuming there are approximately 147,600 ballots, and 25% are from registered Republicans, and another 25% are from registered Democrats, Gross would need to win more than 90% of remaining ballots cast by registered Undeclared, non-partisan, and third party voters.
 
This figure does not take into account the third-party candidate John Wayne Howe – who took approximately 5% of the vote on election day.
 
When all ballots are counted, the MRAK crystal ball predicts that Dan Sullivan will beat Gross decisively:
 
Current Vote Totals:
 
·Dan Sullivan: 118,978 (62.22%)
·Al Gross: 61,362 (32.09%)
·John Wayne Howe: 10,532 (5.51%)
 
Senator Sullivan leads Al Gross by a resounding 57,616 votes.
 
Based on information from the Alaska Division of Elections on Nov. 6, of the 131,536 uncounted absentee and early ballots:
o   34,257 ballots cast by registered Republicans
o   30,063 ballots cast by registered Democrats
o   67,216 ballots cast by registered Undeclared, Nonpartisan, and others.
 
If all registered Republicans vote for Dan Sullivan:
 
· Dan Sullivan will have: 153,235
· Gross would need to receive over 97% of the remaining 97,279 ballots from registered Democrats, undeclared, nonpartisan and other ballots.
 
Election Projection:

If Sullivan receives 20% of remaining ballots and John Wayne Howe receives 3% of undeclared, nonpartisan and other ballots (67,216 ballots):
 
13,443 for Sullivan 166,678 vote total
51.66%, a win by +7.3%

81,820 for Gross
143,182 vote total – 44.36%

10,532 for Howe
12,906 vote total – 3.99%
 
(+7.3%) win for Sullivan.

62,000 Alaska ballots to be counted today

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The Division of Elections will count some 62,000 ballots today, which is day seven since the election ended on Nov. 3 at 8 pm.

On election night, 36,268 were counted, which means that by the end of today, over 98,000 ballots will have been counted in two counting sessions.

Comparing that to the 15 days of counting in 2016 when 123,246 ballots had been counted, the division will be at about 80 percent of that number. 2016 was a record year for ballots that came in from outside their precincts (by-mail, online, fax, early, in person, special needs and questioned). This year is a record year for absentee ballots.

Results will be released at 5 pm, and then again later in the evening. The Nome region is not expected to be counted because the U.S. Mail had not yet delivered the voter registers from the villages in the area.

The estimated ballots cast in this election is now believed to be over 150,000. The deadline for them to arrive is Nov. 13 (overseas ballots have until Nov. 18 to arrive).

Brad Tilden announces he’ll retire from Alaska Air

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Brad Tilden will retire as CEO of Alaska Air Group on March 31, 2021 after eight years as head of the company. He will be replaced by Ben Minicucci, who currently serves as president of the company. Tilden will remain chairman of the board.

Seattle-based Alaska is the nation’s fifth-largest airline.

“We are through the initial phases of our coronavirus response, and Alaska is on a solid trajectory,” said Tilden. “Now is the time to position Alaska for future growth, and now is the time to move forward with this long-planned transition. Ben has proven himself over a long career as a person who cares passionately about our people and our culture, as a leader who builds strong teams and produces results, and as a person who will work tirelessly to push this great company forward. He has earned this role, and I look forward to supporting him as board chair.”

“I am honored and humbled by this incredible opportunity, and profoundly grateful for Brad’s leadership and partnership,” said Minicucci. “Our company is built on the strength of its people and our values, and I am so proud of who we are and all we have accomplished. The way in which our employees have navigated through challenges is truly inspiring – and the last nine months is no exception. I’m excited and optimistic about our future as we continue this journey together.”

During Minicucci’s 16-year career with Alaska, he has contributed in various roles of increasing responsibility. In 2016, he became president of Alaska Airlines and he was also named CEO of Virgin America upon Alaska’s acquisition of the airline. From 2009-2016, he served as executive vice president and chief operating officer. He was vice president of Seattle operations (2007-2009). Minicucci joined Alaska in 2004 as staff vice president of maintenance.

Oregon Secretary of State fires election director after he reveals security issues

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In further election-related security news, Oregon’s elections director was fired in a text message by the Oregon secretary of state on Thursday night after he pointed out in a memo a series of serious problems with the state’s technology for running elections.

Elections Director Stephen Trout learned that he was fired while the vote counting was still underway in Oregon during a record-breaking election that has yet to be certified. Secretary of State Bev Clarno announced to elections officials on Friday morning that Trout was leaving the department immediately.

Trout said he would have stayed on with the secretary of state’s office until Dec. 15, to complete tasks associated with the election. But he was told to clean out his desk.

“I would not abandon my staff or the counties before the election is over, especially since I was the only one at the SOS office with a security clearance that could be notified of any election attacks during this certification process,” Trout wrote in an email to reporters. “There is no resignation letter because I didn’t resign. I was laid off via text message late Thursday.”

Oregon was the first state in the nation to institute all-mail-in voting in the 1990s, along with with automatic voter registration.