A memo to media from the campaign of Alan Gross for Senate:

To: Interested Parties
From: David Keith, Campaign Manager, Dr. Al Gross for Senate
Subject: Status of AK-SEN race: Outstanding Ballots
Date: 11/5/2020 10 A.M. AKST

The dynamics of the Alaska Senate race at this hour remain in a state of flux. As expected by everyone who has been watching the turnout here in the state, Sullivan is benefitting from an early lead, but with approximately 44.6 percent of the ballots not yet counted, his lead can—and we believe will—be overcome once every vote has been counted in the state.

Based on the numbers, we are urging everyone—in-state press as well as folks in the lower 48—to avoid hasty predictions or to make calls based on projections. Before anyone declares a winner, we owe it to Alaska’s voters to have their voices heard and ensure that every vote is counted. Here is what we know at this hour:

Why this race is so different than in the past:

The lopsided fundraising in this race—with Dr. Al Gross raising $19 million to Dan Sullivan’s $9 million—made this race competitive until the end. Public polling leading up to Election Day proves this:

• Independent Alaska polling showed Dr. Al Gross leading Dan Sullivan 47-46.
• Patinkin Research Strategies polling showed Dr. Al Gross leading Dan Sullivan 47-46.

Simply put: Too much of the vote that was cast remains uncounted to call the 2020 U.S. Senate race in Alaska.

Approximated as of 10 am AKST 11/5/2020

Total number of votes counted: 190,872

• Election Day: 154,604
  • Early vote before Oct. 30: 36,268

What remains uncounted: 153,423

• Mail-in ballots: 116,730 (and growing)
  • Early vote between Oct. 30 – Nov. 3: 16,963
  • Questioned Ballots (Estimation): 20,000

Estimated percentage of vote that remains uncounted: 44.6%

A question mark on this race should remain until at least Nov. 10 when at least 153,000 votes—44.6% percent of the votes cast—begin being counted and every Alaskan’s voice heard.

By SCOTT LEVESQUE

Massachusetts voters have rejected the adoption of rank choice voting.

With 99% of the vote accounted for, Question 2 lost by a margin of 55% to 45%, ending an 18-month campaign to transform the state’s election system. 

The measure had widespread support from most of the state’s top Democratic leaders, including U.S. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey. And with a 3,000-to-1 fundraising advantage over the opposition, Question 2 had a clear opportunity for victory. 

The same group responsible for the 2016 rank choice voting measure passed in Maine had raised over $10 million for Question 2 in Massachusetts. 

If passed, Question 2 would have implemented rank choice voting for all state and federal elections in Massachusetts starting in 2022 – except for the presidential race. The measure performed well in Boston and surrounding democratic held suburbs, including winning a 3-1 majority in Cambridge and Somerville.

However, double-digit losses across the state, including Worcester and Springfield, typically Democratic strongholds, left Question 2 on life support and conservative voters eventually pulled the plug.

Proponents of rank choice voting are not ruling out another run in Massachusetts soon. 

Like Massachusetts, Alaskans were asked to implement ranked choice voting on Ballot Measure 2. This measure would completely overhaul the state’s election system by inserting rank choice voting, jungle primaries, and eliminating “Outside” or “dark” money, at least for state races, but not for federal races or ballot initiatives.

The campaign championing Ballot Measure 2 raised over $7 million — a 14-1 advantage over the opposition, with almost 99% of funds coming from Outside money.

As of Thursday, Ballot Measure 2 is behind in the voting 44% to 56%, but with nearly 134,000 absentee votes yet to be counted, there’s still a possible path to victory. It’s a result that is similar to what has occurred in Massachusetts.

And like Massachusetts, if Alaska votes down the measure, it could be the target of another attempt, by outside influences, to overthrow the state’s election system for a far less straightforward election model.

The “yes” side would need to get about 59 percent of the remaining uncounted votes in order to change the results.

Alan Gross says he is sure he will win the Senate against Dan Sullivan. In a video statement on Wednesday, posted on Twitter, the Democrats’ candidate reassured his supporters that with 40 percent of the vote yet to be counted, he’s confident those votes are for him.

But are they?

Various media reports give differing totals for the number of votes yet to be counted. Some put the estimate at 120,000, others are assuming 150,000.

There are already 192,918 ballots already counted, and they went 119,000 to Sullivan, 61,362 to Gross. That means Sullivan has over 61 percent of the vote, for early voting up until the Thursday before Election Day, combined with all of the votes cast on Election Day itself, Nov. 3.

In the 2016 General Election, 321,271 total votes were cast. This includes all votes — early, absentee, and day-of votes.

So far this year, 173,712 votes have already been counted. If 2020 turnout is anything like 2016 turnout, that means about 147,600 remain, or 46 percent of the expected turnout.

Gross would be right, if he used this presumption, that over 40 percent of the vote is yet to be counted.

Gross also knows that those 147,600 ballots were aggressively scavenged by his field team from the Lower 48, flown up and housed in local hotels, from where they fanned across the state with smart tablets, knocking on doors and harvesting ballots from voters who are modeled as liberals.

To get across the finish line, Gross needs 57,638, presuming that Sullivan has all the votes he is ever going to get, and that Sullivan won’t get a single vote more in the the 147,600 outstanding ballots.

But that’s not how it will work, of course.

Let’s presume the 147,600 ballots split 50-50. In that scenario, Sullivan gets 193,400 votes, and Gross gets 135,162 votes, still far short of a win for Gross.

Now let’s presume that the 147,600 ballots break two-thirds for Gross. Now, Sullivan would have 168,200 votes, and Gross would have 159,762. Close, but no cigar. Gross still comes up about 8,438 votes short, or 6 percent shy of pulling even.

In order to win, Gross needs well over 70 percent of the remaining ballots, including all absentees and the votes of people who cast ballots from Friday through Monday before Election Day. It’s a big lift, but Gross thinks he has this in the bag.

Of the uncounted early and absentee votes, approximately 30,000 are from registered Republicans and 28,000 registered Democrats. If you assume that Democrats will vote for Gross, and Republicans for Sullivan, then Al Gross has to get 85 percent of undeclared and nonpartisans.

But what if there are only 120,000 remaining votes? The calculus is similar.

And what about the third person in the race, the Alaska Independence Party candidate? All indications are that John Wayne Howe is actually pulling votes from Gross, not Sullivan.

If by magic, Gross can go from his current 32% popularity to 70% of the vote, he can win this thing. Otherwise, he’s just spinning another tall tale for his Outside donors, while his workforce gets back on the plane headed south.

By CASSIE LAWVER

Rep. Sarah Vance’s election watch party at Land’s End in Homer was the place to be on Tuesday night after a long and contentious election season. Jon Faulkner, owner of Land’s End Resort, had set up a huge screen in the dining area, and on the screen was a board of OAN national elections results and Must Read Alaska live election programming from Anchorage.

George Hall provided music, and more than 75 people enjoyed the food prepared by the staff at Land’s End.  

After the first results for House District 31 appeared, Vance stood at the microphone as the cheering crowd welcomed their representative and saw the numbers going in her favor. 

Vance thanked everyone for stopping by and spending a few hours with her and her family as the results came in. She said that it was an honor to represent District 31. Then, she made her way around the room, personally thanking people for coming.  

When the second round of results came out, the excitement in the room could be felt, as Sarah was leading 69% to Kelly Cooper’s 30%, with 3 precincts reporting.  When someone in the room rose to update everyone on the presidential race, the crowd erupted every time he said President Trump had won a state. 

There were groups of people following the US Senate and House race as well as the Ballot Measures on their own computers and smart phones.  The energy in the room was positive and healthy with people laughing and enjoying each other’s company and satisfying results.  

By 10:30 pm there were still nearly 50 people and when when a third round of results come in with 5 precincts reporting, Vance was leading 72% to Coopers 27%.  The crowd was ecstatic. 

A dozen people remained after 11 pm as the hard working crew at Land’s End put away tables and the big screen.  The results were unchanged. There were smiles and laughter as people were saying goodbye. Many were saying the numbers will hold, as others said they will be praying.