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Art Chance: Election fraud is a piece of cake in Alaska

The most charitable view of the election process in most of the U.S. is that it is embarrassing. A more realistic if heretical view is that it is criminal. I lean toward the latter: It’s a criminal enterprise seasoned with a dollop of stupidity and laziness.

I’m not some hopeless romantic that thinks it will all be OK if we just go back to paper ballots on Election Day; Tammany Hall and the Richard Daley Machine did election fraud really well without Dominion Machines and mailed-in ballots. 

Alaska is no saintly example of elections. The first political story I recall when I first arrived here in 1974 was about bags of ballots turning up in the trunk of an Alaska State Trooper car days after the election was supposed to be over.

There was more than a whiff or corruption and vote fraud in much of rural Alaska and several political personalities tied to rural/Western Alaska got a new federal address in the 1980’s. The Wally Hickel-Jay Hammond primary in 1978 was so tainted that the Alaska Supreme Court went so far as to say there was fraud, though they wouldn’t say the word, preferring the vague word malconduct.  The court set a rule that it wouldn’t upset the outcome of an election unless whatever malconduct was done had substantially affected the outcome of the election, and the judges reserved to themselves the power to make that determination.   

Interestingly, the Alaska Supreme Court has found something that might be malconduct in several elections, it has never found enough malconduct to throw out an election.

Get-out-the-vote campaigns and voter fraud are only one step removed from each other; you use the same techniques and data for the one as the other. The only difference is a GOTV program gets out real people who are honestly entitled to vote. A fraud program only cares about getting a ballot with a registered name on it into a ballot box. Voter fraud the old-fashioned way took a lot of organization and a lot of labor. Fast forward to the world of universal registration, unsolicited mail ballots, long early voting periods, and any-reason absentee ballots, and it is child’s play to commit fraud, especially in rural Alaska.

The dumbest thing, among many dumb things, that Alaska has ever done politically is passing the automatic Permanent Fund dividend application automatic voter registration. Everyone who knows anything about State government knows that the Permanent Fund Division has almost no application security; if you can fill it out and mail it, you get a Permanent Fund dividend and you’re almost certainly then made into a registered voter. Thus, we have over 604,000 registered voters in a state with 732,000 declared residents.

Permanent Fund dividend application fraud largely relies on fraudsters getting ratted out by jealous friends and neighbors who envy their new big screen.

With the universal registration and unsolicited mail ballots, all a fraud operation needs is a name and address and those are easy to get.   Drop boxes just make it easier; there is risk to the mule to bring a few hundred fraudulent ballots into a polling location; some honest election worker might notice. If you have the name of a putatively registered voter all it takes is a little phone work to determine if they’re still at the registered address and only a little more to determine if they’re in the district or the state.   

The fraudster is relatively safe if the person named merely no longer lives at the registered address; it is unlikely there will be any investigation of such fraudulently cast votes. If the named person is no longer in the district, fill out the ballot and put it in the mail or a drop box; do a few hundred of those and you’re doing your part to “save democracy,” as the Democrats like to say.

Art Chance is a retired Director of Labor Relations for the State of Alaska, formerly of Juneau and now living in Anchorage. He is the author of the book, “Red on Blue, Establishing a Republican Governance,” available at Amazon.

Art Chance: Palin is finishing what she started, as every Democrat’s favorite Republican

Art Chance: The 1609 Project and the indentured servitude of immigrants

Palin in Toronto signing autographs at card-trading show

Sarah Palin appeared in Toronto, Canada on Saturday with her boyfriend Ron Duguay, signing autographs and having her picture taken for cash at a card show. She sold autographs for $40, and photos with her for $50.

Duguay was there as a former hockey star with the New York Rangers. The Toronto Sport Card Expo ran Nov. 10-13. Duguay and Palin were on the Expo floor on Nov. 12.

Toronto’s Sport Card & Memorabilia Expo is Canada’s largest and longest-running sports collectables show, its website says, and gives collectors the chance to get autographs from hockey and other sports legends. Collectors can shop over 200 dealers & corporate booths and find rare cards and sports memorabilia from over 100,000 square feet of expo space.

Prices have come down since this summer, when Palin was charging $2,900 for a photo with her during the campaign.

Some visitors didn’t pay the $50 but got the picture of Palin the old-fashioned way:

Palin ran for Congress this year to replace Congressman Don Young, who died March 18. She is currently in second place, with 26% of the vote, and is not expected to win over Democrat Mary Peltola, who is currently serving the remainder of Young’s final year in office. The delay in the results is largely a product of the 2020 Ballot Measure 2, which ushered in open primaries and ranked choice voting in general elections.

Last week, Palin told her vast social media audience that she was feeling victorious and had hired her loyal friend Jerry Ward as her interim chief of staff. She said she was heading to Washington, D.C. to meet with the House Freedom Caucus and start working for Alaskans in anticipation of the announcement of her win.

Over the past two years, Palin has made substantial income selling “Cameo” custom videos that capitalize on her hard-earned fame.

Bill Walker has wasted over $3.8 million in three failed runs for governor

Bill Walker has been generous to the Ship Creek Group and campaign-associated Alaska economy, spending over $3.8 million in failed gubernatorial election campaigns since 2010. He’s Alaska’s Beto O’Rourke, the Texas Democrat who has failed for statewide office three times in six years, but spent $175 million doing so.

Here’s how much campaign cash Beto O’Rourke burned through losing races

Although the election for governor has not been finalized, Walker, the former one-term governor, now stands with a 20% result in 2022, which is remarkable, considering that in 2018 he pulled out of the race in the last three weeks leading up to the midterm election, and received 2% of the vote.

In 2010, Walker’s first failed run for governor, he spent $570,394.

In the 2018 election cycle when he was running for reelection, he spent $1.039,917.

In 2022, he has spent more than $2,261,730, or about $53 per vote for the 42,943 vote counted so far. Final reports will include more spending and at least a few more votes, but as of now, he has perhaps set a record.

Walker spent a whopping $3,872,041 on elections where he either dropped out or was defeated in a landslide. This may give his donors pause before they give over their hard-earned money to Walker — if there is a next run for governor.

On the other hand, Gov. Mike Dunleavy has never lost a race, and in fact has won nine elections in a row. He spent $1,289,259 on this year’s campaign, as of the most recent filing with Alaska Public Offices Commission.

As of Thursday, Dunleavy’s vote total was over 52%, with 111,897 voters picking him first. More results are expected for all the Nov. 8 races on Tuesday, according to the Division of Elections, and the final sorting of first, second, and third-place votes on the ranked choice ballots will be calculated on Nov. 23.

Whatever the results are, it appears Walker will not be able to retake the governorship of Alaska, in spite of his record spending.

Downing: The loyalty pledge that Bill Walker made to Communist China in 2017

Desperation ticket: Walker homogenizes with Gara to try to beat Gov. Dunleavy, using the Walker-Mallott playbook of 2014, as Democrats give up again

Bill Walker’s gas line obsession would feed China’s ‘Steal and Scale’ initiative of Chairman Xi, who emulates Mao

Debate: Walker admits his China gas line was a mistake on statewide TV during KTUU’s ‘Debate for the State’

Bill Walker once signed MOU for gas contract to China’s Sinopec, which is now delisting from NY stock exchange

Lawsuit over Alaska newcomer candidate from Louisiana has new judge, Scott Kendall joins as legal counsel

An election-related lawsuit challenging the Alaska residency of Jennifer “Jennie” Armstrong, who came from Louisiana in June of 2019, and who is apparently the winner of District 16’s House seat in the the Alaska Legislature, was assigned a new judge last week. The state objected to the first judge for unknown reasons and Judge Herman Walker will take over.

Armstrong now has legal representation: Election activist and author of the Ballot Measure 2-ranked choice voting lawyer Scott Kendall has joined the fray, representing the Democrat, who ran to become the first openly pansexual candidate to be in the Alaska Legislature. Armstrong is not named in the lawsuit, whose plaintiffs are directing their complaints over Amstrong’s illegality to the state Division of Elections.

According to Armstrong’s own social media account, she visited Alaska in May of 2019 to visit her then-boyfriend. Then she returned in June of that year and applied for a non-resident fishing license on June 23, declaring her residency to be in Louisiana. It appears from her activities that she came up to go fishing with her boyfriend. As a non-resident in June of 2019, she was not eligible to run for House in the 2022 election, having missed the deadline by a couple of weeks.

The following June, Armstrong applied for and received a 2020 resident sport fishing license.” On said application, Armstrong indicated that she was a resident for one year and zero months, meaning that she asserted her residency in Alaska did not begin until June 2019, which contradicts the story she told the Alaska Department of Fish and Game the prior year.

Armstrong did not demonstrate the intent to remain in Alaska until at least June 7, 2019, but possibly as late as August 26, 2019, when she registered to vote, the lawsuit explains.

The clock is ticking on the lawsuit. Nov. 29 is the Division of Elections’ target date to certify the general election, per statute 15.15.450.

District 16 residents Chris Duke, Randy Eledge, Steve Strait, and Kathryn Werdhal are the plaintiffs in the lawsuit, which has no court hearing date set. Armstrong and Kendall have filed a motion to dismiss the case.

Donations to the HD16 Armstrong Candidacy Challenge can be made to the Holmes Weddle and Barcott Trust Account and will be used to pay legal fees and costs incurred by the firm in connection with the recount and potential litigation related to the referenced litigation.
 
Donations can be mailed to:
ATTN: Stacey C. Stone
Holmes Weddle & Barcott, PC
701 W 8th Ave, Ste 700
Anchorage, AK 99501
(907) 274-0666
Any donation checks should reference HD16 Armstrong Candidacy Challenge. Credit card donations can be given online at https://secure.lawpay.com/pages/hwb/trust or over the phone by calling 907-274-0666. Corporate donations are allowed, and no funds will be paid to or under the control of any candidate. If the amount donated exceeds the legal fees and costs incurred, the surplus donations will be returned to the donors on a pro rata basis.

Dittman Research for the win again, predicting all races correctly

Alaska-based Dittman Research was a clear winner on Tuesday, with a sweep of all the elections polled. The Alaska survey firm, started by Dave Dittman and now owned by Matt Larkin, predicted several races correctly. Before Tuesday’s election, Dittman made these predictions:

  • Mary Peltola would win on election night with 45.5% of first-choice votes. The current standing is Peltola with 47.26%.
  • Sarah Palin would come in second with 26.5% first-choice votes. She currently has 26.57%.
  • Nick Begich would come in third with 24.0% first-choice votes. He is standing at 24.19%.
  • Chris Bye would come in fourth with 3% first-choice votes. Bye is at 1.73%.

In the governor’s race, Dittman predicted:

  • Mike Dunleavy would win with 47.5% of first-choice votes. His actual result is currently 52.06%.
  • Les Gara would get 24.2%. His actual result is 23.07%.
  • Bill Walker would get 23.2%. Walker is at 20.10%.
  • Charlie Pierce would get 5.2%. Pierce is at 4.55%.

On Ballot Measure 1, the Constitutional Convention, Dittman predicted voters would reject it by 70%. In actuality, voters rejected the measure 69.84%.

Dittman’s predictions also delved into the second-round count. If Dunleavy drops to the 47.5% predicted by Dittman for the first round, Dittman predicts he’ll end up at over 51% in the second round. Dittman predicts Peltola will will for Congress with 56% of the votes in the final round of counting for that race. Those results won’t be known until Nov. 23, due to Alaska’s slow election process that was made worse with the ballot measure passed in 2020 that brought ranked choice voting into play in the general election.

The information that Dittman provided the day before the election:

Dittman Research is Alaska’s most trusted pollster, and has been accurately predicting the races for governor and U.S. Senate for over 50 years, since its founding in 1969, It has commercial clients and has political clients.

“We’re very pleased once again to have accurately predicted the outcome of another election cycle, and we’re grateful for the thousands of Alaskans who willingly share their views with us on the issues of the day so that we can provide the public with relevant and accurate public opinion information,” said Matt Larkin, CEO.

Boston researchers: Masking children in schools can reduce effects of ‘structural racism’

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Anchorage School Board President Margo Bellamy should take note: Masking of children in school may not do much to prevent an aggressive coronavirus like Covid-19 from spreading, and it may lead to suicide and poor educational outcomes. But one thing a universal mask mandate can do is reduce effects of racism in schools, according to leading researchers.

The New England Journal of Medicine has published a study laced with speculation and opinion in which the authors say universal masking policies in schools work, if ever so slightly, to contain the spread of Covid. At least that was what their 15-week study showed. Lifting mask mandates in schools led to an increase of 45 cases of Covid per 1,000 persons.

But wait, there’s more: “We believe that universal masking may be especially useful for mitigating effects of structural racism in schools, including potential deepening of educational inequities,” the researchers with doctorates said in the study summary.

“Districts that chose to sustain masking requirements longer tended to have school buildings that were older and in worse condition and to have more students per classroom than districts that chose to lift masking requirements earlier. In addition, these districts had higher percentages of low-income students, students with disabilities, and students who were English-language learners, as well as higher percentages of Black and Latinx students and staff. Our results support universal masking as an important strategy for reducing Covid-19 incidence in schools and loss of in-person school days. As such, we believe that universal masking may be especially useful for mitigating effects of structural racism in schools, including potential deepening of educational inequities,” the authors wrote.

“Among school districts in the greater Boston area, the lifting of masking requirements was associated with an additional 44.9 Covid-19 cases per 1000 students and staff during the 15 weeks after the statewide masking policy was rescinded,” they continued. They wrote about historic oppression, structural racism, and settler colonialism, and that “Black, Latinx, and Indigenous children and adolescents are more likely to have had severe Covid-19, to have had a parent or caregiver die from Covid-19, and to be affected by worsening mental health and by educational disruptions than their White counterparts.”

The authors concluded that Covid-19 has helped lead to policies that will combat “structural racism codified in state-sanctioned historical and contemporary policies and practices (e.g., redlining, exclusionary zoning, disinvestment, and gentrification) eroded tax bases in some school districts and shaped the quality of public school infrastructure and associated environmental hazards. These processes left school districts differentially equipped to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic and concentrated high-risk conditions, such as crowded classrooms and poor indoor air quality due to outdated or absent ventilation or filtration systems, in low-income and Black, Latinx, and Indigenous communities.”

The study was published in the Nov. 9 edition of the New England Journal of Medicine, a peer-reviewed publication that is widely cited as a credible and accepted source for medical information that informs government policy.

“Understanding Covid-19 policy decisions requires attention to power and existing historical and sociopolitical contexts. Structural racism and racial capitalism operate through multiple pathways, including higher levels of household crowding and employment in essential industries and lower levels of access to testing, vaccines, and treatment; these structural forces differentially concentrate the risk of both SARS-CoV-2 exposure and severe Covid-19 in low-income and Black, Latinx, and Indigenous communities,” the authors wrote.

The researchers are associated with Harvard and Boston University, as well as the Boston Public Health Commission, New York Public Health Department, and similar agencies: Tori L. Cowger, Ph.D., M.P.H., Eleanor J. Murray, Sc.D., M.P.H., Jaylen Clarke, M.Sc., Mary T. Bassett, M.D., M.P.H., Bisola O. Ojikutu, M.D., M.P.H., Sarimer M. Sánchez, M.D., M.P.H., Natalia Linos, Sc.D., and Kathryn T. Hall, Ph.D., M.P.H.

Could McConnell have saved Blake Masters’ campaign in Arizona with funds he wasted battling Tshibaka in Alaska?

Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, a Democrat and gun-restricting activist, is the presumptive winner in Arizona, ending the chances of Blake Masters, who challenged the incumbent in a high-profile race, of flipping the Senate to Republican control.

Although Masters said on Saturday he will not concede until after all votes are counted, the Associated Press has seen enough and declared Kelly the winner Friday night, moving Sen. Chuck Schumer and the Democrats one seat closer to holding the majority in the Senate.

Arizona’s Senate results bring the Senate to 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans. The Georgia Senate race will go to a runoff on Dec. 6, and Nevada’s race is too close to call. Republicans now need to flip both those seats to Republican in order to take over leadership. A 50-50 Senate means Vice President Kamala Harris is the tie-breaking vote, as she has been for the first two years of Joe Biden’s presidency.

Blake Masters said it could have been different, but that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who runs the Senate Leadership Fund, spent $7 million in Alaska, getting into a battle with Alaska Republicans who wanted to oust Sen. Lisa Murkowski. Masters said that could have made the difference in Arizona or the other key states, and he lays the failure of the red wave on McConnell.

In Alaska, McConnell spent those millions not attacking Democrats, but smearing the name of Republican Kelly Tshibaka, to the point that several districts of the Republican Party issued resolutions of censure and condemnation of McConnell and told him to butt out of Alaska, if he was not going to support the Alaska Republican Party’s endorsed candidate, Tshibaka.

The Alaska Republican Party’s national committeeman, a member of the Republican National Committee, weighed in with an open letter to McConnell. Alaska Republican Party Chairwoman Ann Brown issued a weak response to the McConnell attacks, however.

Maricopa County has about 275,000 ballots that are outstanding from election day drop offs, and they are expected to be heavily Republican but the mess in Maricopa has led many to believe Masters has no path to victory.

Masters has called for removing McConnell as Republican Senate leader, and he is not alone.

“How much did McConnell spend in Colorado on his favorite candidate? Millions. He was blown away. How much did he spend on smearing the conservative in Alaska? Millions. How much did he spend on the Arizona Senate race. Nothing,” said Mark Levin, conservative commentator and host of the Mark Levin Show.

Benny Johnson, conservative analyst and host of his own show, said, “Never ever forget that Mitch McConnell pulled *all* Senate campaign cash from Arizona – BACKSTABBING Blake Master because he did not like the cut of his jib. McConnell would rather a young promising, popular Republican LOSE than be MAJORITY Leader and have to listen to the base.”

McConnell appears to be in trouble, as Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida said he wants the vote on the Senate leadership to be held after candidates for the position are vetted for their “genuine” commitment to fighting for the priorities and values of the working Americans.

“The Senate GOP leadership vote next week should be postponed,” Rubio wrote Friday on Twitter. “First we need to make sure that those who want to lead us are genuinely committed to fighting for the priorities & values of the working Americans (of every background) who gave us big wins in states like #Florida.”

Rubio is being joined by others in calling for a delay in appointing any leader for the Republicans until the two remaining seats are decided. That’s not counting Alaska, which is presumed to go Republican.

Saturday is expected to be the day that Nevada is completed and announced, which will decide who has the power in the Senate.

Although Kelly Tshibaka holds the lead for Senate against incumbent Murkowski, it’s widely understood by analysts and pollsters that the second-place votes for Democrat Pat Chesbro will be awarded to Murkowski, to allow her to get beyond the 50% threshold needed to win. As of Thursday, there are at least 32,736 ballots remaining to be counted at the Division of Elections, including 19,198 absentees, 13,538 early votes, and 1,549 questioned ballots. The next tranche of ballots will be counted and announced on Tuesday.

Downing: McConnell’s proxy war with Trump in Alaska is stuck on stupid

Breaking: Alaska Republican Party votes overwhelmingly to censure Sen. Mitch McConnell for attacking Republican Kelly Tshibaka

Tidal wave from Alaska Republicans: Three more committees resolve censures against Mitch McConnell attacks on candidate Kelly Tshibaka

Stampede: Growing referendum on Sen. Mitch McConnell by Alaska Republican committees furious over attack ads against Republican candidate Kelly Tshibaka

Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson files letter of intent to run for reelection

Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson intends to run for reelection in 2024. He filed his letter of intent Tuesday with the Alaska Public Offices Commission.

The move allows the first-term mayor to start raising the funds needed to stand up a solid campaign when the time comes, and is sends a signal to others that he is in the running.

Bronson first ran in 2021, and won handily against Forrest Dunbar, the Bernie Sanders-style Democrat who serves on the Anchorage Assembly. Mayors in Anchorage serve three-year terms.

Bronson was an Air Force pilot and is a commercial jet pilot. He worked in the Alaska Air National Guard and as in the Air Force Reserve Command.

Poll: Most Americans say election results take too long

Alaska’s Division of Elections will next report results from the Nov. 8 election on Nov. 15. As of Nov. 10, there are at least 32,736 ballots remaining to be counted, including 19,198 absentees, 13,538 early votes, and 1,549 questioned ballots. Ballots will trickle in and the final tabulations for the ranked choice races won’t be done until the afternoon of Nov. 23.

With the balance of power in Congress still undecided, American voters expressed in a recent national poll that they clearly dislike delayed reporting of election results, according to Rasmussen Reports’ latest national telephone and online survey.

The survey showed that 65% of Likely U.S. voters agree that many states take too long to count the votes and report results on Election Night, including 37% who Strongly Agree, 28% disagree, and 13% who Strongly Disagree. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 U.S. likely voters was conducted on Nov. 6-7, 2022 by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

While election results were known quickly in Florida, Arizona lags in counting, and Alaska is stuck with delays due to ranked choice voting.

In addition to wanting results to be known more quickly, fewer than half of voters think the news media did a good job covering the midterm campaign. Almost half say the coverage is biased in favor of Democrats.

Only 13% of Likely U.S. voters rate the media coverage of this year’s congressional campaign excellent. Some 24% rate it good and 23% give the media’s midterm coverage a fair rating. Another 33% rate it poor. That compares to November 2020, when 40% rated the media’s coverage of the presidential campaign excellent or good.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)