The problem with lying to voters is that eventually they’ll find out. They always do. In this case, Alaska Senate candidate Al Gross found that out early. According to the Washington Free Beacon, Gross told Democratic donors last week that his “independent” claim is a front. It’s all fake, he admitted.
“I will caucus with the Democrats. I’ve been an independent since I was 18, but if you look at my platform, you’ll see that most of my values are to the left,” Gross reportedly said to a group of high-dollar Democrats last Wednesday. “I’ve met with leadership in the Senate and they are very understanding that my best pathway to win is to remain as an independent.”
Gross made his admission during a meeting with California and New York donors at the Democratic National Convention’s “virtual happy hour.” Of course, that is not what he is telling Alaskans. To them, he’s a rugged independent who once killed a bear.
Even that was not quite the truth. He told Alaska Public Media last year that he had been registered as nonpartisan for much of the past 25 years, but had registered as a Democrat in 2017, and then switch back to nonpartisan a year later.
“Gross’s admission may harm his ability to distance himself from national Democrats in historically red Alaska, which President Donald Trump won by nearly 15 points in 2016,” the Washington Free Beacon wrote.
Some 58 percent of the state’s voters are registered as either nonpartisan or undeclared, which is why more and more Democrat candidates are ditching the D after their names and trying to appear independent.
For Gross, it’s a charade he is willing to endure. He won the Democrats’ primary in Alaska last week, with the party’s endorsement, funds, and best wishes. Now it’s on to the big show — and to persuade nervous donors elsewhere that Alaskans will believe the “independent” label, but that he’ll actually put Sen. Chuck Schumer in place as Senate Majority Leader.
A story in a leading political blog says that the Trump Administration is about to put a dagger through the heart of the Pebble Project.
“The Trump administration is planning to block the proposed Pebble Mine in Alaska early next week, six people familiar with the plans told POLITICO, marking a surprise reversal that could be the death knell for the massive copper and gold project,” POLITICO wrote.
Calling the story wrong in that it was based on a “false report [that] surfaced Saturday morning,” the Pebble Partnership says the project is moving forward as expected.
“We firmly believe that the implication pushed by Politico that the White House is going to kill the project is clearly in error, likely made by a rush to publish rather than doing the necessary diligence to track down the full story,” said CEO Tom Collier. “We categorically deny any reports that the Trump Administration is going to return to an Obama-like approach that allowed politics to interfere with the normal, traditional permitting process. This president clearly believes in keeping politics out of permitting – something conservatives and the business community fully support.”
Collier added that the company was told the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is going to publish a letter Monday about the status of the “mitigation” of the project. Mitigation generally involves the sideboards put on a project and the protections for the environment that must be in place.
POLITICO wrote that the Army Corps of Engineers office in Alaska plans to hold a conference call Monday with groups associated with the proposed mine to “discuss the decision,” and cited three people “with knowledge of the call. An administration official confirmed the call with POLITICO.”
No such meeting has been announced. Generally, reporters are notified of media availabilities.
“Based upon our ongoing interaction with the USACE, we believe the letter will discuss the need for a significant amount of mitigation for the project’s wetlands impacts. This has been our working premise for quite some time and has been the focus of our recent efforts near the site to complete additional wetlands survey work to better inform our plan. The process and time needed to develop a comprehensive wetlands mitigation plan might result in a slight delay beyond earlier USACE milestones. However, at this time we do not believe this is the case and we will be working with the corps to get them what they need as soon as possible,” Collier said.
The Pebble Project is vastly different than the one originally proposed, but it is still a rallying cry for environmentalists who seek to stop the proposed gold mine, which they say will harm the Bristol Bay fishery.
“We know there are some who do not support the USACE’s findings but just because people don’t like the USACE conclusions does not mean their work has not been thorough,” Collier said.
Recently, Donald Trump Jr. on Twitter said he was opposed to the Pebble Project, raising the hopes of environmental industry advocates that he would be persuasive with his father, the president.
Politico changed its story on Saturday evening after receiving written comments from Collier.
BUSINESSES SAY THEY ARE THE SACRIFICIAL LAMB FOR BAD SCIENCE
Is it working? It has been three weeks since Mayor Ethan Berkowitz’s latest Emergency Order 15 went into effect. On Aug 3, he shuttered bars, restaurants, bingo halls, theaters, and churches.
Gatherings indoors are limited to 15 in Anchorage, but people must remain at a distance from each other. Restaurants may serve outdoors and for takeout, and several have created tents outside their establishments, complete with walls, the equivalent of rustic dining rooms with drafty corners.
Gallo’s Mexican Restaurant has a robust but costly solution to the mayor’s indoor dining ban.
Other restrictions and mask mandates are still in effect, hobbling the business community, whilst government work continues unabated and code enforcers comb the city for lawbreakers.
Three weeks later, the change in the number of COVID-19 cases diagnosed per day in Anchorage is somewhat unremarkable.
The trailing average is about 40 new cases a day in Anchorage in each of three-week increments since Aug. 1.
That’s six per day less than the three weeks prior to Aug. 1 (if one removes the one day spike when 152 cases were diagnosed in Anchorage on July 25, which reflects an outbreak at Copper River Seafoods.)
But the decline had already begun in late July, before the emergency order went into effect.
It’s even more striking if you look at the 7-day central moving average for positive tests, shown in the chart below. That average is taken three days before and three days after a point in time, to show more of a rolling average for positive tests:
These charts show that there’s a roller coaster effect with this virus, but do not indicate that the complete shutdown of the Anchorage economy in March slowed the spread.
The mayor briefly opened up the economy in June and July, only to once again close some venues for the entire month of August, primarily hitting restaurants and bars. By the time he decreed EO 15, the cases were dropping.
The mayor has been concerned that the hospitals would become overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients, but the data shows that the number of actual beds occupied by these patients is relatively stable and low, currently at 41.
Since March 3, only 198 Alaskans have been hospitalized with the illness — some of them had other conditions that complicated their health, such as heart disease, age, diabetes, or asthma.
The COVID-19 patients are the red lines in these charts:
Mayor Berkowitz has hammered home time and again that he is following the science. The mask mandate is one of those science-driven laws that some say has no science behind it at all and others say may help a little bit at least.
Yet on Friday, he predicted that his mandates would continue in some fashion, although he would not say what he plans to do next week when EO 15 expires.
“I’m going to impose upon you for many more months,” Berkowitz said.
“When we get to the end of the month, we’re going to do something different than what we’re doing today,” the mayor also said.
As Anchorage heads into the chilly fall season, it’s going to be harder for restaurants to provide outdoor dining. On Sept. 15, the daily maximum average temperature is between 53-57 degrees. The minimum temperature in Anchorage is between 39 and 45 degrees.
Some business owners who were shut down on Aug. 3 say they have been sacrificial lambs for no good reason.
“If we were the culprits in the rise of COVID,’ there would have been a sharp drop in the numbers about 10 to 14 days after the shutdown,” said Sandy Powers of Tudor Bingo. “This did not happen. The bars, restaurants, theaters, bingo halls, and churches are paying a massive price. Our employees are struggling, businesses are struggling, and somehow we are supposed to feel like we are a shield protecting the city. It is devastating to all of us.”
At Tudor Bingo, the gaming site has 12,000 square feet and between 100-120 people are in the building at a time, generally seated to play the game. None of the bingo halls have been a site of an outbreak.
“The burden is becoming too great to bear,” said Powers.
Other business owners said it’s the big stores that remain open that are more likely to be places spreading the virus, but are not paying the price that small operators are paying.
WHAT TO MAKE OF THE DATA?
Alaska has been under a state of emergency due to the COVID-19 pandemic since March 11. Since that time, there have been 31 deaths attributed to COVID-19 among Alaskans, or about one death every five and a half days. The deaths have been primarily among old or infirm individuals. Some of those deaths are disputed by people who were close to the situation.
The data could very well show that by completely shutting down the economy, the government can, in fact, drive down the number of infections. But it’s a temporary fix, because every time the economy opens back up, infections eventually follow. And no government has yet said what “flat” is or when masks can come off, frustrating business owners and causing many of them to fold.
JUNEAU’S ASSEMBLY APPEARS READY TO TAKE BUREAUCRACY PATH
By WIN GRUENING
Following months of racial unrest and protests, the country is struggling with Black Lives Matter claims that America is awash in systemic racism.
There may be benefits to a broad examination of government policies that could perpetuate negative impacts on minorities.
But the question is: How much change is warranted and what is the best way to accomplish it?
The “systemic racism” narrative is promoted so widely that it is taken as undeniably true.
Businesses and local and state government agencies spend upwards of $10,000 an hour for tutorials on how to eliminate their own purported systemic, institutional racism. Schools and colleges have tripped over themselves denouncing white privilege and systemic racism.
It’s become accepted fact that racism accounts for most disparities among races, whether in educational achievement, employment rates, income gaps, crime rates, policing policies, or health. Individual behavior, family structure, and cultural attitudes are dismissed as factors. If you argue that they are, you risk being accused of being racist.
It is universally acknowledged that our country, like many countries, has a history of slavery and racism. Today, instances of racism regrettably still exist. What seems not to be acknowledged is the progress our country has made in securing voting rights, improving educational opportunities, and promoting economic advancement for minority Americans.
Today, 131 of our 535-member Congress are black, Hispanic, Asian, or Native-American. African American college-graduation rates have quadrupled over the past six decades. The United States remains the place millions of emigrating “people of color” choose when looking for opportunity.
In Juneau, after four meetings of the municipal Human Rights Commission with public participation, a draft ordinance establishing a new Systemic Racism Review Committee (SRRC) was forwarded to the Assembly for action.
During discussions, one Assembly member commented that the ordinance was addressing a “massive problem we are trying to solve.”
After minor changes, the ordinance was set for public hearing on August 24.
It would establish an appointed 7-member committee responsible for reviewing all assembly ordinances and resolutions that may contain a “systemic racism policy or implication”. The committee would also be responsible for recommending a cure.
Thus far, no Assembly or city staff member has identified a single concrete example of systemic racism in Juneau.
The ordinance, which is both vague and unlimited in scope, doesn’t either.
The term “systemic racism” is not clearly defined other than an act, practice, or policy that would have a “significant discriminatory impact on a protected group.”
Defining the committee’s mission this way, there will be no need to prove a policy or act is racist – only that there is disparate impact. This would be de facto evidence that racism exists.
The SRRC would have wide latitude to delve into virtually all facets of city government including the budget, hiring practices, housing policies, homelessness issues, education curriculum, and policing practices, to name just a few.
The anticipated workload for the SRRC was deemed so burdensome, the Assembly discussed hiring a consultant and requested that staff draft an ordinance to provide $50,000 in initial funding.
Aside from the bureaucratic overload and financial drain this SRRC would create, the potential recommendations that could be forthcoming should be of concern.
Indeed, a draft resolution accompanying the ordinance from the Human Rights Commission says in part, that with the “execution of George Floyd, one case of endless cases…the City and Borough of Juneau (CBJ) must face the unique and local history of racism”. The HRC further suggests that the CBJ must embrace the ten demands of local black leadership which include expansive powers of oversight of our police department and schools.
To vest this much power and public authority in a group of unelected committee members would be extraordinary and unprecedented.
Juneau’s current Human Rights Commission, with some modifications, has the ability to solicit and receive public testimony and make recommendations to the Assembly about policies and practices that may have racial implications.
Should creating an additional expensive layer of bureaucracy with an undefined goal of eliminating “systemic racism” be a priority now?
Or rather, should our city leaders be focusing on improving our faltering economy, thereby improving opportunity and quality of life for everyone?
Win Gruening retired as the senior vice president in charge of business banking for Key Bank in 2012. He was born and raised in Juneau and graduated from the U.S. Air Force Academy in 1970. He is active in community affairs as a 30-plus year member of Juneau Downtown Rotary Club and has been involved in various local and statewide organizations.
A STUDY IN CONTRASTS AS AL GROSS BECOMES MASKED AND MUFFLED
Sen. Dan Sullivan just released a post-primary video touting some of his greatest strengths — his unending energy, devotion to Alaska, and doing what he promised to do when first elected in 2014.
In the video, he’s clipped in old footage of him running on trails in Alaska — as he is known to be an avid runner, even in Washington, D.C.
Then, the one-minute video shows that he has delivered on the promises he made to work on jobs, strengthen the military in Alaska, improving care for veterans and their families, and opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Also, he’s championed cleaning the oceans of plastic, worked to bring solutions to opioid addiction, and strengthened Alaska’s fisheries.
The ad is in stark contrast to the message from his opponent Al Gross, who recently featured himself gasping for air in a video, while he labored to speak behind a ladybug mask, which kept getting sucked into his lips as he read from the teleprompter:
The buses that typically travel through Denali National Park are idle in storage yards in the Denali Borough, lined up row after row. Each one represents several jobs lost this year in Alaska’s tourism economy.
Gone are the shifts of drivers, the people who clean the buses, the people who maintain them, the people who sell parts and prepare meal for the bus fleet crews. It’s a snapshot of a tourism industry that has come to a standstill in Alaska, one that has just five fleeting months of employment in a normal year.
Unemployment claims in Alaska in June broke the record books. During a time when there’s usually more work available in the 49th state, Alaskans are struggling with a nearly 12.5 percent unemployment rate average statewide.
Some locales have done better than others — many government workers are enjoying the ability to work from home, for example. But overall unemployment claims tell the story of other families heading into a winter of worry.
Initial filings for unemployment in June totaled 30,580, a nearly 800 percent increase from June of 2019, when there were just 3,413 filings.
Continued filings in June were 600 percent higher than June of 2019: 188,961 in June of 2020 vs. 26,857 last year.
And the number of claims was 572 percent higher year over year: 46,481 this year vs. 6,912 last year.
Unemployment in Alaska is higher than it was during the recession of the late 1980s. Job growth dropped to negative numbers, and wages have slumped, according to the Alaska Department of Labor, where Commissioner Tamika Ledbetter described the situation as “tough.”
This fall and winter will be worse, employers told Must Read Alaska. While in normal years, seasonal workers would leave in mid-September, in this year, there are no seasonal workers. The full-time workers laid off this past spring won’t be coming back until the spring of 2021 at the earliest.
In an indication that workers are leaving the state, the rental vacancy rate is growing and is now 9.2 percent. Juneau has the lowest vacancy rate at 4.4 percent, while Fairbanks has the highest, at 19 percent.
As the fireweed hits its final stage of gossamer plume, Alaskans may be facing economic hardships this winter, as they wait out a pandemic that has destroyed so much of their lives already.
At least 200 people joined together at the east side of the Midtown Mall and held a three-hour rally to support police officers. The rally also drew the approval of hundreds of drivers, who honked their horns in approval and waved as they passed by on the New Seward Highway.
Organized by a loosely knit grassroots network that thrives on Facebook, the pro-law enforcement group was generally upbeat. Attending the rally were Republican candidate for House District 28 James Kaufman and Republican Sen. Mike Shower of Seat E, Wasilla
Also along the block were anti-police Black Lives Matter protesters, about a dozen strong. They chanted “No Justice No Peace” and waved signs, including “Fuck the Police.”
A few times during the dueling rallies there were words exchanged between the groups, such as when one Black Lives Matter squadron leader chanted repeatedly “I can’t breathe!”
“Take off your mask!” the Back the Blue crowd shouted back, helpfully.
Several races in the 2020 Primary Election are coming down to what the absentee voters decided, and if they mailed in their ballots. Ballots had to be postmarked by Aug. 18, and are trickling into the Division of Elections. the count will begin Aug. 25.
Senate Seat B
Sen. John Coghill, who has held office since 2009, was challenged by Robert Myers for the chance to get to the November ballot. As of now, Myers is ahead with a 126 vote lead over Coghill, 1,447–1,321.
In Senate Seat B, there were 307 absentee votes from District 3 that were received but yet to be counted. In District 4, 670 Republican absentee ballots have come in. That’s a total of 977 absentee votes that could be marked for Coghill or Myers.
Taking a look at the districts in Senate Seat B, Coghill and Myers split the early vote in District 3, 24-24. In District 4, the early vote split 50-50. It’s close.
Takeaway: If the absentee votes break the same way as the early votes and the Election Day votes, Myers will win Senate Seat. B.
Stephen Duplantis
Natasha Von Imhof
Senate Seat L
Sen. Natasha von Imhof is trailing Stephen Duplantis by 85 votes, 1,351 to 1,266.
There are 504 possible absentee votes in District 23, and 1,090 absentee votes in District 24.
As for early votes in District 23, they broke toward Duplantis, 33-17. Duplantis received 64 percent of the vote in this district.
In District 24, they broke toward von Imhof, 56-48, who received 53 percent of the votes in this district.
Takeaway: It’s a safer bet that von Imhof will climb out of the hole she’s in due to the 1,090 votes still to be counted in the district where she was strongest, and District 23 may not have enough Duplantis votes for him to overcome those D-24 votes.
John Cox
Gary Stevens
Senate Seat P
Sen. Gary Stevens is trailing behind challenger John Cox for this Kodiak Borough district that also stretches up to Homer.
In the District 31 portion of the Senate seat, Cox beat Stevens 1,144 to 709. There are 746 absentee ballots possible for that district.
In the District 32 (Kodiak) side of the Senate seat, Cox lost to Stevens 259 to 625. and there are only 320 ballots to count.
There are no early votes tallied yet for this race.
Takeaway: John Cox has a very good chance of retaining his lead over Stevens. Neither of the candidates pursued the absentee ballots with any effort.
Steve Thompson
Dave Selle
House District 2
Rep. Steve Thompson is ahead of challenger Dave Selle by 13 votes. There are 210 possible Republican absentee ballots already turned in and 348 that have not yet been received by Aug. 18. In the early vote, Selle carried the day 18-15, so if that trend holds on the 210 already received ballots, he will win.
Takeaway: This could be a race that goes to a recount.
Jesse Sumner
David Eastman
HouseDistrict 10
Rep. David Eastman is holding onto a lead over Jesse Sumner, by 79 votes.
The Early vote leaned slightly for Sumner, 77-73. there are 568 absentee votes turned in for this district and 861 still not returned by Aug. 18.
Takeaway: 79 votes is a big lead that could narrow, but likely not enough to help Sumner to a win.
Kathy Henslee
Connie Dougherty
House District 23
Connie Dougherty and Kathy Henslee are in a tight race to take on incumbent Democrat Rep. Chris Tuck in November. Dougherty is winning by 16 votes and there are 504 possible absentee. Henslee carried the early vote 26-24 over Dougherty. If she gets the same percentage in the absentee ballots, she could pull off a narrow victory.
Takeaway: This race is a toss up that could be going to a recount.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has just poured a half million dollars to prop up the campaign of Alyse Galvin, who is has already spent more money than Congressman Don Young in the congressional race.
In Tuesday’s Primary election, Young won 36,674 votes on the Republican ballot, while Galvin only got 24,134 votes. Absentees have not yet been counted.
Galvin’s performance with voters was so poor, in spite of her campaign outspending Young five-to-one, that the television buy from the DCCC came as soon as the committee realized she is in trouble.
Galvin’s own campaign’s television ad buy is $700,000, compared with Young’s $400,000. Now comes the DCC’s $500,000, bringing her a whopping $1.2 million for television ads to present herself to voters.
That’s a lot for television in Alaska. But it’s not that much for the DCCC, and there’s a message there. Galvin is evidently not as strong a candidate as Ethan Berkowitz was in 2008. That year, the DCC poured $6 million into propping up his campaign.
Young received 50% of the vote in 2008, to Berkowitz’s 45% that year.
Berkowitz came closer than any other candidate to unseating Young since John Devens of Valdez tried to bump him off in 1990.
If the DCCC was as confident of Galvin as it was of Berkowitz, it would be spending $7.2 million on those television buys, which is what that $6 million in 2008 would translate to today, if counting for inflation.
