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No LeDoux, as David Nelson pulls 3 out of 4 Republican votes in Muldoon

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By SCOTT LEVESQUE

The District 15 House primary race, which featured incumbent Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux pitted against primary challenger David Nelson, garnered a lot of interest around the state.

LeDoux is facing one felony charge and nine misdemeanors charges in conjunction with voter misconduct related to her 2014 and 2018 campaigns. The charges originated from an investigation into the 2018 Republican House primary.  

The joint investigation by Alaska State Troopers and the FBI revealed LeDoux lobbied for individuals living outside District 15 to vote in the 2014 and 2018 primary and general elections.

LeDoux’s former chief of staff, Lisa Simpson and Simpson’s son, Caden Vaught, have been accused of soliciting votes from individuals living outside the district. Both have been charged with several counts of voter misconduct. 

As LeDoux entered the 2020 elections, serious questions loomed about voter confidence and the possibility of reelection. Those questions were answered last night as challenger David Nelson took a commanding lead in the District 15 House primary garnering 407 votes to LeDoux’s 106. 

LeDoux won fewer votes than the leading Democrat on the other “ADL” ballot. Lyn Franks received 188 votes and will proceed to the November ballot to face off with Nelson.

The election results were consistent with a recent poll conducted between August 11 – 13 of 121 registered Republican voters in District 15. In that poll, LeDoux had 19 percent support, Nelson had 49 percent and undecided were 32 percent in the Republican primary.

But the pending court case did not do LeDoux any favors in the court of public opinion. 

In District 15, voter turnout has always been a challenge. In 2014 only 34% of the district voted compared to 2016 at 37%, and in 2018 the percentage dropped to 28%.

What is clear is that voters in JBER-Muldoon want a new face representing their interests in Juneau.

Kopp, Johnston find no favor with South Anchorage base

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In South Anchorage, Reps. Chuck Kopp and Jennifer Johnston, each polished and experienced lawmakers and campaigners, were soundly trounced in Tuesday’s primaries by challengers from the right.

The voting patterns in their districts — 24 and 28 — were almost identical on Primary Election Day.

The two Republicans got in trouble with their bases after they organized a Democrat-Republican caucus that put Democrats in charge of key committees, and installed a Democrat speaker, all of which made Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s agenda fall flat, even though the House was clearly dominated by Republicans.

Kopp became Rules chair in that House organization, and Johnston became vice chair of Finance, eventually ascending to co-chair.

Kopp, the District 24’s Republican incumbent, only received 601 votes on Tuesday.

In 2018, Kopp won 1,535 of the primary ballots, compared with challenger Stephen Duplantis’ 642 votes.

This year it was flipped, with challenger Tom McKay bringing in twice the votes that Kopp received — 1,202.

Johnston, District 28’s Republican incumbent, received just 600 votes in the Republican primary. Newcomer James Kaufman won decisively with 1,625.

Two years ago, Johnston won the primary with 1,637 votes.

Both incumbents are solid campaigners and both are likable, have excellent communication skills, and have the benefit of professional staff who take personal leave to work on their campaigns with them.

But it wasn’t enough for South Anchorage, which turned a lot more “red” on Tuesday. Both seats are considered safe Republican for the General Election.

The numbers on these races and others in Alaska will change as absentee ballots are counted beginning Aug. 25. But they won’t be enough to pull either of these public officials to victory.

A night for upsets as incumbents struggle

It was a rough night for Alaska State House and Senate incumbents on Tuesday, but some races are too close to call and there are still many absentee ballots to be counted. 

One takeaway is that the full-PFD message is powerful in Alaska politics. With only $5 billion and change left in the Earnings Reserve Account, the victors will have a very tough time paying the bills this coming year. But Alaskans are angry that the statute was not followed.

Here are a few results as of 1 am. Check for more stories throughout the day on some of these races:

Winners

Gov. Mike Dunleavy was the big winner as those Republicans worked against his agenda are generally in peril. This matters especially because Dunleavy didn’t get involved in this election cycle, except to give some nice remarks about Congressman Don Young at a fundraiser.

Senate Seat D: Sen. David Wilson, R, got by Stephen Wright and several other contenders in Wasilla.

Senate Seat H: Madeleine Gaiser
 was unopposed on the Republican side, got 1,222 votes, more than Sen. Bill Wielechowski’s 1,004, for this East Anchorage seat. She somewhat unknown but could give Bill-Wiel a run for his Big Union money.

Senate Seat M: Sen. Josh Revak, R,
 1,653, Borbridge 268, Metcalfe, 636.

Senate Seat N: Roger Holland, R,
 2,586, Sen. Cathy Giessel, 1,010.

House District 6: Mike Cronk, R, won with over 1,034 votes. Interior seat being vacated by Rep. Dave Talerico.

House District 7: Chris Kurka, R,
 won with 1,294, over former Rep. Lynn Gattis, 520.

House District 8: Kevin McCabe, R, 
won, 1,377, over Rep. Mark Neuman, 809.

House District 9: Rep. George Rauscher, R,
 won with 1,226 over challenger L.D. Howard, 857.

House District 10: Rep. David Eastman, R, holds the lead 1,129, to Jesse Sumner, 1,050.

House District 13: Ken McCarty, R, 
won with 510 over Rep. Sharon Jackson, 351.

House District 15: David Nelson, R, 
won with 407 over Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, 106.

House District 24: Tom McKay, R, 1,202
, over Rep. Chuck Kopp 601. More coverage on this key race later this morning.

House District 25: Rep. Mel Gillis, R,
 912, over Benjamin Rodriguez, 203.

House District 27: Rep. Lance Pruitt, R, unopposed, won 1,302 votes, and Liz Snyder, D, received less than half that. They face each other in November.

House District 28: James Kaufman, R,
 won 1,625 over Rep. Jennifer Johnston, 600.

House District 30: Ron Gillham, R,
 won with 1,168, with Gary Knopp at 258, and Kelly Wolfe, 474.

House District 36: Leslie Becker, R,
 unopposed, won 1,103 votes and will face Indie-Dem Dan Ortiz in November. She’ll need to increase her turnout to successfully upset him, as in 2018’s general election he got 4,256 votes.


Losers

Incumbents in general did poorly. Looks like Sen. Giessel, and Reps. Johnston, Kopp, LeDoux are out, others are in peril.

Alyse Galvin, running for U.S. House, has to be worried. She only received 23,786 votes at last count in her Democrat primary. Congressman Don Young, the Republican, received 36,394. Lots of absentees will close that gap.

Al Gross, D, running for U.S. Senate, only received 22,329 in his primary. U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan went over 45,689, more than double.

Curiosities / Too Close to Call

Senate Seat B: Robb Myers, R, 1,447 holds the lead over Sen. John Coghill, 1,321.

Senate Seat L: Stephen Duplantis 
is ahead with 1,351, Natasha Von Imhof has 1,266, but likely had a robust absentee ballot chase. Duplantis had a small campaign budget, not likely enough to do an absentee ballot program.

Senate Seat P: John Cox, R, 1,403, holds the lead over Sen. Gary Stevens, 1,334 for this Kodiak-Homer seat.

House District 1: Rep. Bart LeBon, R, won uncontested Republican Primary with 788 votes, but the Democrat votes totaled 778 amongst the two contenders on the D side, so this will again be a squeaker race in November, when LeBon faces Democrat winner Christopher Quist, who won 394 votes.

House District 2: Rep. Steve Thompson, R, holds a slight lead 356 to Dave Selle’s 343.

House District 5: Kevin McKinley, R, unopposed, won 914, which is more than his opponent received in his primary. Rep. Adam Wool, D, only Brough in 675, which may worry him going into November.

House District 23: Connie Dougherty, R, won with 441 to Kathy Henslee, 425. Too close to call.

House District 35: Kenny Skaflestad, R, 336, in a tight race with Arthur Martin, 326 for the Republican Primary. The winner takes on Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins.

Giessel was her own undoing

PRIMARY 2020 ANALYSIS

What a bloodbath! Even though tens of thousands of absentee ballots have yet to be counted, some incumbents took such a beating Tuesday, 60,000 uncounted ballots can’t save them.

Tuesday’s primary election results proved one thing: Voters aren’t idiots. 

No single candidate showed less respect for voters’ intelligence than Senate President Cathy Giessel. What was she thinking? 

Giessel cut a YouTube video during her last campaign promising to work with Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy. But instead she became his chief antagonist.  Did Giessel think so little of voters she thought they wouldn’t notice. 

She also promised to restore the full dividend check and return the money former Gov. Bill Walker took. Instead she became chief among permanent fund raiders. Her efforts would cost each Alaskan close to $6,000? Did she really believe she could pull a fast one over on voters when there was that much money at stake? 

Giessel often sounds like a kindergarten teacher dealing with a four-year-old. But voters are not children. Her choice to underestimate their ability to know when a candidate is lying cost her the Senate presidency. 

If Giessel would have argued circumstances changed since she cut the original YouTube video and that’s why she didn’t fulfill her promise, some voters might have cut her some slack. 

But instead, she cut a new YouTube video during this campaign doubling down on her claim that she fought for a full dividend. Which is of course ridiculous and something only a four-year-old might fall for. 

The thing is, even voters who don’t care as much as others about the dividend probably turned on Giessel. They had to if they value authenticity, transparency, and honesty.

Giessel also doubled down on her deception during an interview on the Mike Porcaro Radio Show. She came across as short-tempered, condescending, and blatantly dishonest. It’s difficult to imagine those still on the fence about voting for Giessel still supporting her after hearing her on the Porcaro Show.  

Giessel also had a tyrant vibe about her. The way she punished the most conservative legislators, for of all things voting their conscience instead of what she wanted, it was not a good look for her. 

When the legislators who were targets of Giessel’s wrath were vocal about her unbending, rigid and retaliatory-like tactics, it was another strike against her. Giessel was already behind in the count. 

What may have hurt Giessel the most is her obvious disdain for Dunleavy. It became clear to most Giessel was a woman scorned when it came to Dunleavy after she co-authored a letter with her Lieutenant, Sen. Natasha von Imhof, to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, questioning the governor’s use of COVID-19 relief funds. 

Bottom line is Giessel was not who she said she was during her previous campaign and voters saw right through her. It’s a cautionary tale for other candidates. Trust your constituents, treat them with respect, and don’t play them for the fool.  

Dan Fagan hosts a radio show weekday mornings on Newsradio 650 KENI. 

LeDoux felony hearing moved to October 8

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The pre-indictment hearing for Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux has been moved to Oct. 8 at 2 p.m. Before yesterday, the hearing was scheduled for Aug. 20, two days after the Primary Election.

LeDoux is being charged with one felony and two misdemeanors for mishandling of ballots during her 2018 campaign. Many court hearings on criminal matters have been postponed due to the Court system’s policies regarding the coronavirus pandemic.

[Read: LeDoux faces charges over voter fraud]

[Read: LeDoux’s felony problem]

Ketchikan Borough mayor vows to veto anti-First Amendment ordinance

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Ketchikan, Alaska (KINY) – Despite the Ketchikan Gateway Borough Assembly adopting an anti-discrimination resolution on a 6-1 vote, Borough Mayor Rodney Dial said he plans to veto it. 

Assembly Members Amanda Pierce and Sven Westergard requested the Assembly consider the resolution supporting action by the Alaska Legislature to prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender identity or expression.

A number of citizens testified in favor of the resolution.

Assembly member Susan Lee Pickrell voted no, and member Alan Bailey passed on the vote (did not vote).

Dial cited the First Amendment and possible forcing of Christian-owned businesses to act outside of their faith.

“I simply can’t have any part of this because of my faith,” Dial said.

Read the rest of this story at KINYradio.com.

Biden win? Pollsters’ odds mirror just what they said during same week in 2016

Nate Silver, the statistics wizard considered one of the top predictors in America, said Hillary Clinton had a more than 71 percent chance of winning the presidency.

Nate Silver prediction in August of 2016.

He made that claim on Aug. 5, 2016, just three months before Donald Trump was declared the victor, not with the popular vote, but by the Electoral College.

Four years later, Silver is again predicting that the Democrat in the presidential election will win, and he’s giving Joe Biden a 72 percent likelihood to be the victor.

Remarkably, Silver’s organization glosses over its statistical record on anything related to President Trump, saying the model did a good job in 2016, when it so badly missed. 

Nate Silver

“Although it had Hillary Clinton favored, it gave Donald Trump around a 30 percent chance of winning on Election Day, which was considerably higher than other models, prediction markets, or the conventional wisdom about the race,” the website said.

Not exactly. The August, 2016 model gave Trump a 28.6 percent chance of winning, not 30 percent, but we’ll allow him editorial license, since it was his poll. 

Trump only won by being able to work the map properly. Clinton, as we are reminded by Democrats time and again, received 2.87 million more votes than Trump. That’s more than a 57,000 vote advantage if we spread those votes like butter between the 50 states. Luckily, we don’t have the heavily populated blue states like New York and California overwhelming the less-populated red states like Alaska.

The Silver methodology uses various polls that it’s sent, with the exception of a few that are wildly biased. But those polls – CNN, Fox, Morning Consult, Pew — all have flaws, increasingly so as time and technology march on. 

Indeed, a recent study shows that polls have closer to a 6 percent margin of error, rather than the 3-4 percent they cite. 

Silver is a statistician who analyzes sports and elections at the website he founded, FiveThirtyEight.com. He is considered by news reporters to be a credible, hipster source for the predictive arts during elections and he was spot on in 2012, making him the savant he is today. 2016 was, he says, kind of an anomaly.

According to Silver, if his model says a candidate has a 30 percent chance of winning, that’s something you can take to the bank. But then he equivocates by saying this is no ordinary election. COVID has made things very unpredictable.

That’s not the only thing that is now unpredictable. We hear that people are not telling others how they are voting, because families, coworkers, and friends who do not like the president have been getting wildly emotional and their responses are erratic and unpleasant, sometimes violently so. This writer has spoken to a dozen individuals who won’t display a Trump bumper sticker, because their neighborhood leans liberal and they don’t want their car vandalized, and others who won’t display a Trump sign or flag on their property, for fear of having their house torched.

These are conditions not accounted for in the polls of America, which typically reach a more liberal respondent.

But none of this should comfort President Trump. The Electoral map is what brought him to the dance the first time, and will be what likely governs November, if riots, plague, and massive fraud do not also come into play.

The odds that riots, plague, and widespread voter fraud are factors for November? At least 50 percent.

Read about all the equivocating variables in the Nate Silver modeling in his Aug. 12, 2020 article, titled “How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Presidential Forecast Works — And What’s Different Because Of COVID-19.”

Election Day arrives, MRAK will livestream results

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The candidates have made their best cases, and will be waving their signs until the polls close. Now it’s all over but the voting for Primary Day, 2020 in Alaska. Some yet-to-be-known number of the state’s 588,072 voters will head to the polls to make their stand for the right or for the left.

With primary elections in Alaska, as few as one in five voters may end up participating; it varies wildly from election to election.

[Look up where you vote here]

Must Read Alaska will begin livestreaming coverage of the election after 7:30 pm Tuesday on Facebook.

Polls close at 8 pm, and typically results start showing up within the first 40 minutes and we’ll wind down the livestream around 11 pm unless something unusual occurs.

Guest hosts on the Must Read Alaska Facebook Live coverage will include John Quick of Nikiski, and Scott Levesque, Bernadette Wilson, Art Hackney, and Steve Strait of Anchorage. We’ll bring several guests on screen, including legislators, analysts, and campaign managers. It will be a freewheeling, unscripted event, in lieu of an Election Central gathering, which won’t happen this year, due to COVID-19 mandates.

But while we and others may speculate and prognosticate, many of the races will be unresolved by the evening’s end, due to the extraordinary number of absentees.

In fact, it could be days before Alaskans know the results of some of the more contested races. Absentee ballot counting will begin Aug. 25 and end Aug. 28, after which the election will be certified.

Some 53,968 absentee ballots were mailed by the Division of Elections, and 28,317 were received by the Division so far. That’s a lot of ballots still out there in the wild.

35,671 ballots have already been voted in this year’s primary, as of Monday’s count at the Division of Elections. This includes early voting and online voting, in addition to the absentee ballots already received.

High Senate stakes: Voters feel frayed and betrayed

PART II: GIESSEL, COGHILL, VON IMHOF

Alaska voters, especially conservative Republicans are angry, frustrated, and feeling betrayed. On Tuesday, many will look for revenge at the polls. Incumbents beware. 

Two years ago, conservatives voted in one of their own when they chose Mike Dunleavy as their governor. Dunleavy promised to return to issuing a full yearly permanent fund dividend check. He also said he’d restore the money former Gov. Bill Walker took from Alaskans by ignoring the statutory formula that determined each year the size of the check. 

Dunleavy’s plan was to stop the raiding of the fund to feed the insatiable overgrown beast that is Alaska state government. 

Most of Dunleavy’s promises never materialized. He certainly could have employed better strategy and been bolder in trying to fulfill his promises. He also could have used his line-item veto pen more. 

At one point he secured $130 million in cuts to the bloated university system. The cuts motivated university leaders to find new efficiencies like possibly consolidating campuses. Something that should have been done years ago. It was a major win. 

But at the last minute, Dunleavy, possibly spooked by the recall targeting him, reversed most of the $130 million in cuts to the university. For his conservative supporters, it was like having your wind knocked out. 

But Dunleavy is not a dictator with unlimited powers. Most of the blame for the governor failing to deliver on many of his promises belong to a hostile House and Senate. Especially since both bodies were made up of majority Republicans. 

Conservatives thought the stars were finally aligned with Republicans controlling the House and Senate and governor’s mansion. But the Republicans in name only in the House showed us who they really were and organized with the Democrats. It gave the big government, labor union boss, non-profit cabal, deep-state, and lobbyists pleasing party control of the House. It was a major victory for the Juneau swamp.  

Then the Senate fell. President Cathy Giessel, long considered a reliable and consistent conservative morphed into something nobody recognized. Giessel became the governor’s chief antagonist and leader of the resistance. 

She’s also considered by many as the chief raider of the permanent fund. 

Giessel joined herself at the hip with former liberal Democrat and now independent Speaker of the House, Bryce Edgmon. The two worked together to resist Dunleavy at almost every turn. 

They were even willing to break the law and ignore the governor’s call for a special session in the Mat Su Valley. If Dunleavy said up, they said down.

Giessel, who is one of a very few vulnerable Senate candidates facing a primary challenge Tuesday, has every right to fight Dunleavy and block his agenda. But as she campaigns for another term, she has a tape problem.  

Most voters have seen Giessel during her last campaign on a YouTube video criticize Walker for raiding the fund. She called it a money grab. Giessel also on the video promises to work with Dunleavy to get the money back. 

What she has done as Senate President and what she said as a candidate could not be more different. 

But it gets even worse. Her current campaign ads double down on her first campaign’s lies. And on her recent appearance on the Mike Porcaro Radio Show, if she had a Pinocchio problem, her nose would have busted a glass window.  

Giessel campaigns based on the belief voters are idiots and have a third-grade level of ability of understanding. And some do and will probably fall for her deceptions. But most won’t. 

But Giessel leading the opposition to Dunleavy’s conservative agenda has made her the darling of labor union bosses, lobbyists, non-profit leaders, and most Juneau swamp creatures. They’ve given her a ton of cash and she’s spent plenty of it trying to rehabilitate her image and defeat her primary challenger, Roger Holland. 

But Holland is a credible candidate, a Coast Guard veteran , and comes across as reasonable and trustworthy. Giessel is in real trouble come Tuesday.  

Natasha Von Imhof, Giessel’s lieutenant in the war to block all things Dunleavy, also has a primary opponent. Von Imhof is much more fortunate in her opponent than Giessel. 

Stephen Duplantis says he does not believe George Floyd exists. Floyd is the man killed by a Minneapolis cop that set off riots across America. Duplantis also cut a video on his Facebook page recently warning us that UPS delivery trucks are used by the federal government as temporary jails. He says the trucks go into neighborhoods seizing people and then locking them up in the back of the trucks. 

As frustrated as voters may be with Von Imhof, she doesn’t face much of a threat in Tuesday’s primary. 

The only other Senate candidate that may be in trouble on Tuesday is John Coghill of Fairbanks. Coghill, Von Imhof, and Giessel led the charge to resist Dunleavy. They also punished and neutered the five or six legitimate conservative members of the Senate. 

Robert Myers is taking on Coghill. He’s certainly an underdog but the word is that Coghill’s name is mud with many conservatives in Fairbanks. We’ll see. 

What’s at stake Tuesday is a battle between the working man and the special interests benefiting from government largess. Should the tens of billions in the permanent fund be used to maintain government bloat? If legislators continue to raid the fund, they’ll never right-size state government. We must starve the beast. 

The special interests are organized and have highly paid lobbyists and powerful union bosses to make sure politicians put their interests first. The only power voters have is at the polling place. 

Tuesday’s a big day for Alaska. 

Dan Fagan hosts a radio show weekday mornings from 5:30 to 8 am on Newsradio 650 KENI.