Biden win? Pollsters' odds mirror just what they said during same week in 2016 - Must Read Alaska
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Biden win? Pollsters’ odds mirror just what they said during same week in 2016

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Nate Silver, the statistics wizard considered one of the top predictors in America, said Hillary Clinton had a more than 71 percent chance of winning the presidency.

Nate Silver prediction in August of 2016.

He made that claim on Aug. 5, 2016, just three months before Donald Trump was declared the victor, not with the popular vote, but by the Electoral College.

Four years later, Silver is again predicting that the Democrat in the presidential election will win, and he’s giving Joe Biden a 72 percent likelihood to be the victor.

Remarkably, Silver’s organization glosses over its statistical record on anything related to President Trump, saying the model did a good job in 2016, when it so badly missed. 

Nate Silver

“Although it had Hillary Clinton favored, it gave Donald Trump around a 30 percent chance of winning on Election Day, which was considerably higher than other models, prediction markets, or the conventional wisdom about the race,” the website said.

Not exactly. The August, 2016 model gave Trump a 28.6 percent chance of winning, not 30 percent, but we’ll allow him editorial license, since it was his poll. 

Trump only won by being able to work the map properly. Clinton, as we are reminded by Democrats time and again, received 2.87 million more votes than Trump. That’s more than a 57,000 vote advantage if we spread those votes like butter between the 50 states. Luckily, we don’t have the heavily populated blue states like New York and California overwhelming the less-populated red states like Alaska.

The Silver methodology uses various polls that it’s sent, with the exception of a few that are wildly biased. But those polls – CNN, Fox, Morning Consult, Pew — all have flaws, increasingly so as time and technology march on. 

Indeed, a recent study shows that polls have closer to a 6 percent margin of error, rather than the 3-4 percent they cite. 

Silver is a statistician who analyzes sports and elections at the website he founded, FiveThirtyEight.com. He is considered by news reporters to be a credible, hipster source for the predictive arts during elections and he was spot on in 2012, making him the savant he is today. 2016 was, he says, kind of an anomaly.

According to Silver, if his model says a candidate has a 30 percent chance of winning, that’s something you can take to the bank. But then he equivocates by saying this is no ordinary election. COVID has made things very unpredictable.

That’s not the only thing that is now unpredictable. We hear that people are not telling others how they are voting, because families, coworkers, and friends who do not like the president have been getting wildly emotional and their responses are erratic and unpleasant, sometimes violently so. This writer has spoken to a dozen individuals who won’t display a Trump bumper sticker, because their neighborhood leans liberal and they don’t want their car vandalized, and others who won’t display a Trump sign or flag on their property, for fear of having their house torched.

These are conditions not accounted for in the polls of America, which typically reach a more liberal respondent.

But none of this should comfort President Trump. The Electoral map is what brought him to the dance the first time, and will be what likely governs November, if riots, plague, and massive fraud do not also come into play.

The odds that riots, plague, and widespread voter fraud are factors for November? At least 50 percent.

Read about all the equivocating variables in the Nate Silver modeling in his Aug. 12, 2020 article, titled “How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Presidential Forecast Works — And What’s Different Because Of COVID-19.”

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Suzanne Downing had careers in business and journalism before serving as the Director of Faith and Community-based Initiatives for Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and returning to Alaska to serve as speechwriter for Gov. Sean Parnell. Born on the Oregon coast, she moved to Alaska in 1969.

Latest comments

  • Polls and predictions are a fool’s errand and should only be used as one of the many tools in following an election. People lie in an effort to skew the poll numbets or simply because they don’t wish to reveal their votes. And the ‘Voter fraud’ claims are wholly unsubstantiated except for Trumpian candidates most recently. Google it. I am ALSO reasonably too frightened to place Biden-Harris signs in my yard, wear the hats and shirts or merely expose myself as a Dem out of fear of retaliation and violence. I believe it’s the Trump Cult Following who are most capable of doing harm and damage in the name of their leader–and be sure it will escalate when Biden wins the Presidency. I keep my rifle next to the door.

    • Nice try but no cigar. It ain’t conservatives out there looting burning rioting and hurtin’ folks. It’s your commie buddies.

    • In case you care to take a look around you might notice these people burning down Seattle, LA SF, Chicago and NYC are not Trump supporters; they are backed by Biden and Harris and they are indeed the ones to fear at some point when Trump wins his second term..!!!

      • Prove it with supporting evidence from well established, legitimate news sources.

        • From Canada Free Press:

          The Real Obama Outs Himself as Architect of The ‘Great Awakening’

          Barack Obama referred to the ongoing unrest around the country, associated with the Black Lives Matter protests, as a “Great Awakening” in his remarks to a fundraiser for former Vice President Joe Biden.

          Obama Refers to Unrest as ‘Great Awakening’
          Obama said:

          “And the good news, what make me optimistic is, the fact that there is a Great Awakening going on around the country particularly among younger people who are saying not only are they fed up with the shambolic disorganized mean spirited approach to governance that we’ve seen over the last couple of years but more than that are eager to take on some of the core challenges that have been facing this country for centuries.”

          “…The current wave of protests, ostensibly motivated by outrage at the death of George Floyd, 46, an African American man, in the custody of Minneapolis, Minnesota, police, has devolved into riots and vandalism, with widespread destruction of historic statues and monuments.”

        • BLACK LIVES MATTER HOSTS THE ‘DEFUND THE POLICE’ CAMPAIGN

          The Black Lives Matter website – the organization spearheading nationwide “defund the police” campaigns – is partnered with ActBlue, a Democrat fundraising platform that is the top donor to Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden, responsible for raising nearly 99.64 percent of the Biden for President effort.

          After reaching the BLM homepage, which features a “Defund The Police” petition front and center, if a user chooses to donate, they’re rerouted to a site hosted by ActBlue and prompted with the message: “We appreciate your support of the movement and our ongoing fight to end state-sanctioned violence, liberate Black people, and end white supremacy forever.”

          Joe Biden is the top beneficiary of the ActBlue’s fundraising efforts.

          This means donations to Black Lives Matter are actually the primary funding mechanism for Joe Biden 2020; and that explains why national democrats (Pelosi) and the DNC have changed their position on BLM as an activist organization, and now embrace them openly.

          After reaching the BLM homepage, which features a “Defund The Police” petition front and center, if a user chooses to donate, they’re rerouted to a site hosted by ActBlue and prompted with the message: “We appreciate your support of the movement and our ongoing fight to end state-sanctioned violence, liberate Black people, and end white supremacy forever.”

          The small print on the BLM site confirms the money goes to funding Joe Biden for President, via ActBlue.

          ActBlue contributions comprise 99.64 percent of all funds raised for the “Biden for President” entity and the total is nearly 773 times greater than the group with the second-highest donation sum.

    • Voir, I am not a Joe corrupted to the core Biden supporter and will vote for Trump, however I like so many millions of others respect your right to express your support for any candidate. Fact is you can bank on me and others going to the mat to protect your rights. I am not aware of any Trump Supporters going about punching folks who wear hats with a message of support for Biden. I am however aware of thousands of documented reports of Trump Supporters getting their bell rung by punk ass ruffians with a Bolschevik bent.

      So, please quiet your fears, come out of the closet and announce to the world you are a Democrat. I assure you that we who support the President will not harass, harm or ridicule you for your political choices. See Voir, we believe in freedom and the rights afforded to us in the Constitution, we believe that those apply to all citizens.
      Oh, if you own a rifle, better hide it if Biden wins, as he and his running mate will confiscate it.

      • I , too, TRY to respect the opinions of others but don’t always succeed. I don’t see any American unity anytime soon but hopefully, with Biden elected to office, Trump’s influence –and make no mistake,,– intentionall efforts to groom the political landscape into malignant division– will finally deescalate and we can try to make nice.

    • You are both a fool and ignorant. The level of dispair when Biden loses just like Hillary will be a direct result of the lefts inability to accept defeat. A poll can have a predetermined outcome by simply polling the ones who will give you the desired output. This is why the margin of error has increased between 16 and 20.

    • Grow a pair. I have a fxxx Biden garden flag in my front yard.

      • Lol

    • Reah, because Republican and Conservatives are burning, looting, assaulting and killing innocent people and business’ in Democrat controlled cities, give your head a shake man and pay attention.

      We don’t need to act like complete a-holes like you liberals do to get our point across, we do it at the ballot box and you’ll find that out come November.

      • Well, aren’t YOU the big, brave Trumpuppet! The political paraphernalia has simply evolved into points of contention and, oooooh! Trigger Bait The fave game of the GOP, right behind kicking puppies. Pssssst…your entire rant was scripted by Fox Ruse. I heard that same spiel broadcasted.

        • Lol……I’m only speaking the truth, if that means Fox News speaks the truth then good for them. As for that drivel you posted….straight out of MSDNC and CNN.

    • Absolute drivel.

      Celebrate the sound of Nat’l Guard boots putting liberals in order, for that sound is coming.

    • That is interesting. I haven’t seen any Trump supporters frothing at the mouth and getting in anyone’s face. Not one. But, I have been assaulted, verbally, a number of times expressing my dislike of the leftist agenda. Have you been treated like this for being a democrat or do you just “fear” it?

    • Tell it to Portland.

    • For gosh sakes, Voir, that vivid imagination or yours coupled with your laughable fears brought a smile to my face for a brief moment but I’m over it now and I find myself disgusted and sneering in your general direction instead. Your parents failed you immensely.

      Please pull yourself together and realize that nobody is coming to mess you up, young fella.

  • Tell it to Portland.

  • During Presidential Election years and prior to Labor Day, the polls are used to shape opinion. During September and early October, the polls transition to actually reflecting opinion because retaining some semblance of a reputation is important to them.

  • You believe it’s the “Trump Cult Following who are most capable of doing harm and Damage”? Really? That has to be about the dumbest thing I have read in a long time!
    Tell that fairy tale to the store owners, the general non rioting public and the police in Oregon, Washington, Minneapolis, NYC.and many other States and cities. Ask the thousands of people, including police who were injured by the “we love Democrat’s” looters . Ask them who they are afraid of. It ain’t Trump! It is the same Biden / Harris people you adore.
    And don’t worry about keeping your “ rifle next to the door”. If Biden wins you won’t have a rifle

    • You haven’t been paying attention. The looters and vandals are opportunists hired by outside factions to intentionally commit these crimes and are often paid by organizers with some unholy agenda. It wouldn’t be the first or last time. It’s been an underhanded strategy for centuries.

      • And yet your party still hasn’t condemned the violence and those causing it, their silence speaks for itself.

        • That is not even close to the truth. Prominent Dems all around the country have condemned violence and called for a return to peaceful gatherings. Your claims have no basis in reality.

          • No they have not, they keep calling the protest peaceful but they are far from it, anyone that’s paying attention can see it plain as the nose on their faces. You’re just another unhinged liberal that knows what’s coming in November. 4 more years of Trump!

  • I thought Voir de piaffe was making a joke about conservatives causing all the violence, but he/she was serious! I say, show me the evidence. Name one documented instance of conservatives looting, burning down buildings, purposely blinding cops with lasers, beating people up, generally rioting, and please don’t refer to the lies fomented on a daily basis by the extention of the democrat party, the liberal media. Most conservatives just want to be left alone. You won’t find us trying to bend people to our will. Oh, and I keep a rifle next to my door as well, and a pistol next to my bed.

    • And a knife under my pillow.

      • Fritz, I use a Samarai sword. Makes a cleaner draw, from a greater distance. (How ya been, buddy)?

    • That person can’t be serious, he/she has got to be trolling. Either that or they’ve completely fallen for the lies and propaganda of the fake news media. The violence is occurring overwhelmingly in cities and states where the mayors, police chiefs, governors, and representatives are democrats. With very few exceptions, they are not prosecuting those arrested on charges of burglary, arson, brutality complaints, reckless endangerment, etc. The dems in these states and in Congress won’t even condemn the violent behavior – see Ted Cruz Triggers Mazie Hirono So Badly That She Storms Out of the Hearing.

  • I got called by one of the national polling outfits. They asked me who I wanted for president and I told them, “Biden,” which of course is a lie. I love messing with these idiots.

  • Suzanne has cited the plague as something that could alter the presidential election. By November the plague will have killed 300,000 Americans and destroyed the lives of millions of people who can’t find work. The War President will no doubt be a victim of the plague. The hungry and desperate will riot for food, medicine and a safe place to sleep.

  • The real “woke” will occur in about five weeks, when the majority of voters have had enough of the anti-American gimmicks of the far-left and their supporters in the media. Joe Biden’s mental status will be on full display and Trump will hail again. The big Democrat celebration, as in 2016, will fall like the old, tall timbers and disappear into the forest.

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