EXCEPT IVAN MOORE — HE’S THE OUTLIER (AS USUAL)
Cook’s Political Report, Inside Elections, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball all put Congressman Don Young in the “likely win” category for the U.S. House. Don Young has been winning that seat since 1973.
And yet, according to Anchorage-based pollster Ivan Moore, Alyse Galvin, running as a Democrat, is within four points of Young.
The mainstream media gave that poll credence, so Must Read Alaska looked into it.
Can that number be trusted?
Galvin won 19,650 votes in her Democrat primary in August. That’s 2,671 more than Steve Lindbeck won in 2016.
But Young received 44,247 in his primary, a gain of 5,269 from his 2016 primary race votes. Young did better than Galvin by double in that measurement.
The Primary Election includes a closed ballot for Republicans, which means that many voters who like Congressman Young did not vote for him in August because they voted the Democrats’ open ballot.
However, in November, any voter can vote for Galvin or Young. Young has always enjoyed the support of Democrats in rural Alaska, as well as working class urban Alaskans who register Democrat. He has a lot of union support, too.
Then there are the Nonpartisans and Undeclareds — the N and the P voters. Will they go with Galvin or Young? Those are the swing voters that make polling difficult in Alaska. Nonpartisans typically vote Democrat, while Undeclareds typically split for conservative candidates, if they vote at all.
FiveThirtyEight.com says Young has a 75 percent chance of winning. That Nat Silver number is based on two Ivan Moore polls and one Lake Research Partners poll. Lake Research polls for Democrats, and is working for Galvin’s campaign. Ivan Moore works for Democrats as well, and generally polls for Jim Lottsfeldt, the partisan strategist used by Democrats in Alaska.
Yet even the aggregate of those polls show Young winning:
THE DEMOCRATS’ PROPAGANDA MACHINE
Why is the Ivan Moore poll interesting to politicos? Why did mainstream media bite on a partisan poll?
The Democratic Congressional Coordinating Committee hasn’t put money into the Galvin campaign yet, but a close poll could lure in the money. This is partly propaganda, then, that liberal pollsters are peddling on behalf of Galvin, who is likely not even close to 44.9 percent, if her Primary numbers are to be used as a gauge of the one polling that matters — the election.
Will the propaganda work?
Here’s what the experts say: