As the Alaska House of Representatives moves into its 23rd day of being rudderless, a new sense of normalcy has set in.
Nome Rep. Neal Foster is the Speaker Pro Tem, and Anchorage Rep. Chris Tuck occupies the seat for the House Majority Leader, controlling the action on the floor, to a large extent. For those watching at home, Democrats appear fully in control of the floor. Tuck is the first to speak. He’s the one who introduces the maker of the prayer, the leader of the pledge of allegiance. He makes the motions to adjourn.
Republican Chuck Kopp of Anchorage, who sits farther back in the Chamber, has to dash to the front to monitor and manage the affairs of the Republicans, when an “at-ease” request brings someone’s concerns to the front for private discussion.
Dozens of power combinations have been proposed to create structure in the House, insiders say, but none of them has gotten the support needed by Republicans, who have lost three of their members to the Democrats — Gary Knopp of Kenai, Gabrielle LeDoux of Anchorage, and Louise Stutes of Kodiak.
Democrats also have held firm against giving up the Speaker’s gavel to the party that won more votes: In the General Election, Republican House members took 125,000 votes to Democrats 113,000.
Rep. Knopp is now attending the caucus meetings of the Democrats but also serving as the go-between, and there’s a deal in the works that each side is said to be voting on today.
And then there are the Uniform Rules.
The House suspended Uniform Rules to allow it to meet in joint session with the Senate three separate times next week, to hear speeches from Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Sen. Dan Sullivan, and Chief Justice of the Alaska Supreme Court Joel Bolger.
Without a power structure to determine order in the House, the suspension of rules may continue and broaden.
The power-sharing agreement that is in play may work by uniting moderates of both parties; there are some Democrats who are arguably more conservative than some of the Republicans.
But it’s almost certain to put the most conservative members in a bind as they decide whether they’ll join a bipartisan caucus and try to work from within, or be relegated to a broom closet.
This is not going to be an easy decision for members like George Rauscher, District 9; Cathy Tilton, District 12,; Sharon Jackson; District 13, or Kelly Merrick, District 14, to name a few from Alaska’s conservative strongholds.
One of the major ratings services has flagged the three constitutional amendments proposed by Gov. Michael Dunleavy as actions that could erode the state’s current credit rating.
Fitch Ratings said that the amendments, if passed, may harm the state’s ability to proactively manage its financial operations and “could result in negative pressure on the state’s Long-Term ‘AA’ Issuer Default Rating (IDR)/Stable Outlook.”
Fitch has not seen the expenditure side of the story, or may be unconvinced it can be achieved. Although the analysts understand Alaska has been living beyond its means for a long time, they sounded the alarm without having a full picture of what the budget will look like when it’s signed into law later this year.
Credit ratings affect how much the State has to pay when it borrows money, as it intends to do later this year to pay some $740 million in debts, such as oil tax credits.
The State’s credit rating tanked in 2015 when oil prices dropped and the Walker Administration did not bring spending down to reflect declining oil revenues.
The three proposed constitutional amendments would require voter approval for any new or increased taxes; would enshrine the Permanent Fund dividend formula into the Alaska Constitution, and place a real spending cap on spending. Permanent Fund dividends would be paid first, before funds were available for state programs.
“Fitch believes the enactment of these amendments, which require approval by two-thirds of each legislative chamber and a state-wide vote, could weaken assessments for key rating drivers related to budget control (i.e., independent legal ability to raise revenues, expenditure flexibility, financial resilience, and budget management), and therefore, exert pressure on the ‘AA’ IDR for the state.
“Removing legislative discretion over the PFD formula alone would require a $1.9 billion dividend payment to residents in fiscal 2020, well ahead of the $1.2 billion payment proposed by the prior governor in his $6.9 billion executive general fund budget.
“Barring other offsetting action, this would result in a more significant draw on the approximate $16 billion PF Earnings Reserve (PFER) than currently expected. The maintenance of reserves is a significant rating consideration for Alaska given the volatility inherent in the economic and resource base,” the company said.
Fitch noted that Gov. Dunleavy has also submitted separate legislation to pay back Permanent Fund dividends that were taken by the previous administration.
“Passage would result in larger PFD payments from the PFER for eligible residents in fiscal years 2020 through 2022. The state estimates restoration payments would total a maximum of $2.3 billion based on proposed eligibility guidelines.
Under the Permanent Fund Protection Act of 2018, the state established annual draws on the fund’s earnings reserve account to patch projected budget gaps.
Fitch predicted at the time that the earnings reserve account would eventually be depleted under the plan. The payback of the Permanent Fund dividends “would be expected to escalate depletion of the PFER, barring other moves to reduce the anticipated use of PFER funds to support general operations.”
Gov. Dunleavy’s fiscal 2020 budget proposal is due on Feb. 13. That’s when the $1.6 billion in state spending cuts is expected to be revealed. Dunleavy has stated that he’ll bring spending in line with revenues, and any additional spending for government services will need to be proposed by the Legislature, along with a way to pay for them.
(2-minute read) SOME DROP, SOME DON’T; HERE’S WHO STAYED IN
Today was the deadline to drop out for those who filed to run in the April 2 Anchorage municipal elections.
Clayton Trotter dropped from his candidacy for the District 2, Seat A, representing Eagle River. That puts Republican Crystal Kennedy in a clear advantage over Democrat Oliver Schiess in this strongly Republican neighborhood.
For School Board Seat A, James Smallwood has dropped, leaving a two-way race between Republican Kai Binkley Sims and Margo Bellamy, undeclared.
For School Board Seat B, Paul Hatcher withdrew, but there are three candidates left: Ronald Staffer (undeclared) and David Nees (Republican) are trying to unseat Starr Marsett, the Democrat incumbent. A three-way race favors the incumbent.
Anchorage votes by mail. If you’re new to the Anchorage or if you moved recently, you could miss getting a ballot. The ballots are mailed out 21 days before Election Day, approximately March 20. Traditional polling locations are not available, but there will be a couple of accessible voting places for people who need help.
Residents with questions about Vote by Mail can call the Voter Hotline at 907-243-VOTE(8683), or may email [email protected], or visiting muni.org/elections.
To vote in a Municipal election, you must be registered to vote and your registration must be where you actually live, otherwise you won’t receive a ballot. The deadline for Voter Registration updates for the current election is Sunday, March 3, 2019.
(4-minute read) AG CLARKSON EXPLAINS ROLLBACK OF SB91 CRIME BILL
Alaska’s attorney general today gave Senate Judiciary Committee members a primer on one of Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s bills to crack down on crime — Senate Bill 32.
ILLEGAL DRUGS
Attorney General Kevin Clarkson explained how the bill will strengthen Alaska’s laws that address illegal drugs.
SB 32 makes it a felony to possess the most dangerous drugs, such as heroin, methamphetamine, cocaine, fentanyl, and other drugs.
The change of crime classification from a misdemeanor to a felony will help incentive drug treatment, Clarkson said.
“Drug seizures are increasing every year and the amount of illegal drugs fueling the opioid epidemic is unacceptable,” he told the committee.
As for trafficking drugs, SB 32 returns the crime to being a Class A and B felony from Class B and C levels, as they are now, under SB 91, the problematic crime bill that lawmakers are trying to undo.
SB 32 also removes quantity as an element of the offense of trafficking. This will help prevent drug traffickers from deliberately keeping just under the possession thresholds in order to avoid consequences for the dangerous drugs found on them.
“If they’re trafficking drugs, they’re trafficking drugs,” Clarkson said. The change will allow judges to impose more time in jail for those convicted of drug trafficking.
SB 32 also addresses the manufacture of meth, with “enhanced sentencing” for meth lab operators who are in close proximity to children.
The practical effect of this portion of the bill is limited: In fact, meth manufacturing has moved to Mexico and, as a consequence, domestic meth lab seizures are the lowest they’ve been in 17 years across the country, according to the Drug Enforcement Agency.
But SB 32 will have an impact on sentencing. It will return all sentencing ranges to their pre-SB 91 levels, where the levels were reduced in felony and misdemeanor sentencing under SB 91. This change is to give judges the discretion to impose sentences appropriate to the circumstances of the crime.
TERRORISTIC THREATENING
SB 32 addresses threats such as school shootings by establishing a new crime in Alaska: Terroristic threatening. The bill creates a general threat statute so law enforcement can act sooner when a person threatens to harm others.
Currently, Alaska statute has a significant gap, Clarkson said, which makes it difficult to intervene before a person takes steps to carry through with their threats.
REMOVING ANKLE MONITORS
SB 32 creates a new felony offense for removal of an ankle monitor during the pretrial phase or when in custody on a misdemeanor offense.
With SB 91 releasing many criminals onto the streets who are wearing ankle monitors, it became common knowledge in the criminal community that there was no penalty for removing the monitor. Now, it will be a separate criminal offense.
DNA SAMPLE REFUSAL
SB 32 will make it a class a misdemeanor for a person to refuse to provide a DNA sample upon arrest. Clarkson said that the State wants to enter the samples into a database the DNA Identification Registration System that can help investigators solve other crimes.
“Many will recall that it was the DNA registration system that enabled law enforcement and prosecutors to solve the Bonnie Craig murder,” he said.
GENERAL PROBATION
SB 32 increases the maximum level of general probation to ensure offenders are appropriately monitored.
“Alaskans cannot continue down the path of SB 91,” Clarkson said. “Not when the crime rates continue to increase year after year in all categories. We have to be responsive to the public and to the victims of crime.”
SB 32 is a first step in that process, he said. It’s part of a package of Dunleavy bills that are meant to get criminals off the streets.
Anybody could see it coming. Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s new budget director has the usual suspects more than a little nervous and they are wringing their hands and questioning her budget-cutting ways and previous connections to the private prison industry.
Dunleavy brought Donna Arduin aboard to run the Office of Management and Budget and help with the state’s $1.6 billion operating budget gap. She has a long history of successful budget work under difficult circumstance in other states.
None of that is good for the big-government crowd. Democrats fret about her work history, her business connections and whether she is setting public policy by cutting the budget. They wonder whether lawmakers should be able to confirm her to the position as they do with other top jobs in governors’ administrations.
Their real fear, of course, is that she will do what she was hired to do: cut government to the bone, and that does not sit well.
After Dunleavy trimmed $20 million from the education budget last week, Sen. Donny Olson, D-Golovin, suggested in a news conference covered by the Juneau Empire that the cut likely was Arduin’s.
“I don’t necessarily blame the governor for doing that,” Olson said. “I think the OMB director’s the one with the hatchet out there. And it’s a hatchet, not a scalpel.”
With a $1.6 billion deficit, Alaska is far beyond the need for a budgetary scalpel. Dunleavy promised a balanced budget, and what is needed – and has been needed for umpteen years – is a fiscal hatchet to make spending come into line with revenue.
Despite lamentations from budgetary nervous Nellies, if that is what Arduin brings to the table, good for her.
(2-minute read) REMOVES A CONSTITUENT’S SUGGESTION THAT HE RESIGN
Rep. Gary Knopp will be featured at a special Kenai/Soldotna Chamber of Commerce breakfast on Friday, Feb. 15, and a Town Hall later that evening.
He posted the event on his Facebook page, only to have a couple of criticisms pop up in response.
Ray and Jenny Chumley responded to Knopp that they hope he’ll resign during the town hall meeting. But their comment only appeared for a while before it was removed, presumably by Knopp, but certainly not by them, Must Read Alaska has learned.
The posting, linked below, has been sanitized of a second critical comment as well:
CONSTITUTIONAL QUESTION
The “curbing of critics” may be an abridgment of the First Amendment right to free speech because Knopp’s Facebook page represents him as an official of the government, not as a private citizen.
In January, federal appeals court said a Virginia politician violated the Constitution by temporarily blocking a critic from her Facebook page, in the same manner that former Alaska Rep. Les Gara was so fond of doing when he was in office, and in a similar way to the censoring that Knopp is doing now.
In an unanimous decision, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said that the chair of the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors violated the free speech rights of Brian Davison by banning him for 12 hours from her official “Chair Phyllis J. Randall” page.
While Knopp didn’t ban the Chumleys, either he or his official government staff did remove their suggestion that Knopp step down from office.
Political speech “occupies the core of the protection afforded by the First Amendment,” wrote the Virginia-based appeals court in the decision that affirmed an earlier ruling by U.S. District Judge James Cacheris in Alexandria, Virginia.
The Virginia case was the first of its kind in a federal appeals court, but could be used in other courts as precedent.
President Donald Trump asked the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to flip a a District judge’s ruling that said he could not block Twitter critics from his @RealDonaldTrump Twitter account.
(1-minute read) POLICE RELEASE THIS DRAMATIC FOOTAGE
Anchorage police have released a video showing two men escaping from the Yakitori Sushi restaurant early on Feb. 4, when it caught on fire.
One of the men’s gloves caught fire before he finally shook it off and the two men tumbled through a fenced enclosure while the glow of the fire was behind them.
APD released the photo to its Facebook page, and it’s the same one that Yakitori had earlier posted on its own Facebook page, but then removed. It comes from the ring.com security camera.
Police are calling the fire arson and says both suspects appear to have been injured in the incident. One likely had some level of burns on his right hand. The other may also have burned his right hand.
“Detectives need the public’s help in identifying and/or locating two suspects in this investigation,” APD said today.
Police also posted these photos of the suspects, hoping the public will help in identifying them:
If you have any information about these two individuals and/or this investigation, including video (smartphone/and or surveillance), please call Dispatch at 311 or Crime Stoppers at 907-561-STOP to remain anonymous.
During the State of the Union Speech by President Donald Trump on Tuesday night, a group of Democrat women wore white in protest, and sat mostly wooden during much of the hour-long oratory.
They rose to cheer World War II heroes present who had landed in Europe on D-Day to secure freedom, at great personal cost. They applauded astronaut Buzz Aldrin, who once walked on the moon, one of the first two to do so (with Neil Armstrong). They encouraged the little girl who has endured chemotherapy. They supported the felon who Trump released from prison. They applauded record low unemployment, especially for African-Americans.
However, they saved their biggest cheers for themselves.
When Trump highlighted the achievements of women, and said that Congress has never had so many women serving, the women rose to their feet, clapped, pumped the air with their fists, and congratulated each other for what was close to a minute.
They were thrilled with his recognition of their mighty achievement of running and winning office, and they welcomed the praise from a president whom they openly loathe. The House now has more than 100 women in office, 90 of which are Democrats.
Even Rep. Alexandria O. Cortez, a socialist, was seen smiling with her white-clad colleagues during that moment of self-congratulations, while during most of the speech her eyes remained steely and her hands remained quiet.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi twisted her face throughout the speech, a visible distraction on camera, as she sat behind the president. Republicans everywhere noticed her struggle to contain herself.
Even Sen. Kamala Harris of California, now a presidential candidate, appeared pained, shaking her head when the president spoke about immigration and border security.
(4-minute read) WHAT HAPPENED IS COUNTER TO TODAY’S CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
By ART CHANCE SENIOR CONTRIBUTOR
Former Speaker of the House Bruce Kendall died in 2012 at the age of 93, but I had lost touch with him long before that, some time after he left the second Hickel Administration and returned to Anchorage.
Bruce and I had been pretty good friends in the late 1970s and early 80s.
One of Bruce’s proudest achievements was having been Speaker of the 20-20 split House of Representatives in 1963 and 1964, and he loved to regale anyone who would listen with stories of that time.
Art Chance
The State of Alaska was still aborning, completing the transition from the Territorial structure, and building and buying new things. In 1963, the State took delivery of the first “big” ferries, the Taku class, two of which were later enlarged and became the Malaspina and Matanuska, and brought mainline service to Ketchikan, Petersburg, Wrangell, Sitka, and Prince Rupert. The Tustumena was delivered in 1964 and service to the Gulf Coast, Kodiak, and The Chain began.
Indeed, liberating Alaska travel from Lower 48-controlled shipping concerns was almost as important as liberating Alaska from the Alaska canned salmon industry and fish traps.
Then life changed forever late in the afternoon of March 27, 1964: The Great Alaska Earthquake.
The Legislature was in its second session and remained in session through April 14, when it recessed until May 24 — when it reconvened until it finally adjourned on May 30.
Then Gov. Bill Egan called a special session from Aug. 31 through Sept. 2 to deal with appropriations to match federal revenue for earthquake relief and provide State relief to Alaskans whose homes and businesses had been damaged or destroyed by the earthquake and tsunami.
The State also retired or adjusted mortgages on homes damaged or destroyed and borrowed what was then the princely sum of $17.8 million for earthquake relief.
Along the way the Legislature established the Human Rights Commission, enacted Aid to Families with Dependent Children legislation, passed the Mandatory Boroughs Act, and started the first of many of Alaska’s Boondoggles to Nowhere, the Rampart Dam Development Commission.
In total, the Third Legislature was in session 164 days. Some 836 bills were introduced, and 231 bills were passed.
Some members of that Legislature went on to become household names in Alaska politics and government for a generation. A couple are still around and still politically active, and some have sons and daughters who followed in their footsteps. I knew quite a few of them; they were and are smart, industrious people, but none of them are superhuman.
Today’s conventional wisdom, at least the conventional wisdom of one House member, is that a tie or a narrow majority either guarantees stasis or causes individual members to have unwarranted veto power over legislation.
The actions and results of the Third Legislature graphically demonstrate that the conventional wisdom is either a delusion or a contrivance. To my mind, it is more likely the latter.
I think Rep. David Eastman has it exactly right in his column, in which he characterized the current situation in the House as a contrivance by the Democrats and three false-flag Republicans to deny the People the results of the last election and preserve the Holy Grail of the union-owned Democrats, an untouched operating budget with no cuts to the State’s extortionary education funding, no cuts to Medicaid, and no layoffs of employees paid from the General Fund.
The unions/Democrats could get away with this under Gov. Bill Walker by holding the Senate hostage; they had to pass a budget the Democrats and the governor would sign or have a government shutdown on their heads.
The only objective I can see the Democrats and their quisling allies have now is to force the governor to call a special session after the 90 day goes by without action, which would continue the session through the 120th day, the constitutional limit.
If they can stall until June 1, the governor has to give almost all State employees a layoff notice effective at 12:01 am on July 1.
At that time, the government of the State of Alaska will all but cease to exist.
School Districts/REAA’s totally reliant on State funds will follow suit as will “polisubs” (political subdivisions) with employees whose positions rely on State funds.
The School Districts that have local funding in addition to State funding don’t have to give immediate layoff notices, but since they’re all union chattel, they will. The unions/Democrats and their allies are counting on the governor not having the will to look into the abyss. We’ll see.
Frankly, nobody has ever seen anything like this before. There are only a handful of us still on this planet who’ve ever seen and dealt with significant labor strife at the State level and who remember when June 1 layoff notices were really a matter of routine. Everyone heard the wailing and gnashing of teeth over a few hundred requests for the resignations of political appointees, but wait until you hear the howl from 20,000 State employees getting layoff notices and perhaps as many as another 20,000 education and polisub employees potentially getting them as well.
I used to have a sign above my desk that said: “If you have to eat frogs, eat the big one first, and don’t spend too much time thinking about it.” Somebody is going to have to eat some frogs.
Art Chance is a retired Director of Labor Relations for the State of Alaska, formerly of Juneau and now living in Anchorage. He is the author of the book, “Red on Blue, Establishing a Republican Governance,” available at Amazon.
