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Tavoliero: Comrade Merrick doesn’t want people to vote on the Permanent Fund dividend calculation

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By MICHAEL TAVOLIERO

Communism is “a system of government in which the state plans and controls the economy and a single, often authoritarian party holds power, claiming to make progress toward a higher social order in which all goods are equally shared by the people.”

On May 26, an Eagle River resident emailed his District 14 State House Rep. Kelly Merrick, regarding his concern over SJR 6, the governor’s proposal to allow the people to vote on a constitutionally set Permanent Fund dividend formula.

He asked for her support for SJR 6.

What followed was an example which many Alaskans are now witnessing from their state legislators.

What is SJR 6? It was part of the opening public policy platform of the then-new Gov. Dunleavy in 2018. It proposes amendments to the Constitution of the State of Alaska relating to the Alaska Permanent Fund, appropriations from the APF, the APF dividend, and power cost equalization.

Amending the state Constitution requires a vote of the people. 

This is part of Rep. Merrick’s response on June 3, 2021:

“Thank you for writing to share your support of SJR 6.  As you mentioned, the PFD has become of the biggest debates every year, and like you, I want that to end. The principal would certainly survive any PFD payout, given that the principal is untouchable, but the state may not.  Paying out a substantial PFD like those that have been proposed continues to shrink our state revenue options into the future, and shrinking revenue is certainly not something we can afford right now. I’m all for preserving the PFD into the future, and I believe Alaskans want that, as well; with the current formula, there are only a few dividends left before the money’s gone. The same people that are hurting after the last year are also people who need roads to drive on, teachers for their kids, healthcare options, and more.  The PFD isn’t the only concern, and SJR 6 doesn’t even address this year’s, or even next year’s, dividend.”

How come every elected communist to the Alaska Legislature since 2015 (the Walker Debacle) has framed the PFD to their constituents as “[one] of the biggest debates every year, and like you, I want that to end.”?

Comrade Merrick explains, “The principal would certainly survive any PFD payout, given that the principal is untouchable, but the state may not.”

The Alaska Deep State has been the only one profiting from the reduced PFD’s since 2015. If the State paid out all “owed” dividend funds since 2015, the Alaska Permanent Fund will still very solvent and continue to grow.  

It is this “The Sky Is Falling” attitude that these communists use to argue against even the 50/50 POMV plan, scare their constituents and label their narrative opposing the people’s right to decide such policy issues in favor of their own suspicious motives.  

When the communists control Alaska’s economy, freedom is in a vacuum.  

There are many people in this state, influential people, who are continually writing their legislators stating the sky is falling, yet have not taken the time to research the present and future financial health of the State of Alaska.

The sky is not falling.

The Permanent Fund is thriving.

The Permanent Fund performance since 2016 has grown in value from almost $52 billion to over $81.5 billion in 2021. That’s an increase in value of about $28 billion or an increase of over 50%.  With its rate of return over the past 5 years of almost 11.5%, the future Permanent Fund will hit $100 Billion.

Today’s communists in the Alaska Legislature create excitement through fear mongering and ignoring the facts.

Merrick continues, “Paying out a substantial PFD like those that have been proposed continues to shrink our state revenue options into the future, and shrinking revenue is certainly not something we can afford right now.”

Unless we reduce the size of government, but this is not part of her reasoning.

Alaskans on fixed incomes or in the lowest income brackets are being hit the hardest by the diminished dividend payments.  

Diminished dividends are the worst form of taxation.  

Every child, every senior citizen, everyone on fixed incomes was hit with the same tax every year going back to 2016.  

Under the current economic situation, communists like Merrick cannot support one, only one, larger PFD, whether it is the Statutory Formula ($3,400) or the 50/50 POMV 5.0 Formula ($2,300).  

The PFD program is the only way that we can boost the Alaskan economy by touching every Alaskan with a positive financial impact.  Every eligible Alaskan!

We have the money in the bank.  We do not have to “borrow” or “print” the PFD funds like the federal government does. 

How much better off would each eligible Alaskan be all the dividend balances owed to them?

That’s a balance of over $7,000 plus what is owed to us for 2021.  

How much have the resident households of Alaska had their revenue options shrink through confiscation of the PFD since 2015? 

But let’s talk about the state’s shrinking revenue options into the future.

Due to post pandemic demand and the current federal administration, conservative estimates see the price of oil topping $80 a barrel by the end of 2021, which may also be impacted by demand and production increases.  Demand for Alaska’s oil will remain high globally for at least the next thirty years.

Between the Alaska Permanent Fund and natural resource development, Alaska’s revenue options are fertile, unless the communists in the Alaska Legislature who continue to use their scare tactics, delay legislative work, and bloated budgets convince citizens it’s time to sunset the PFD.

The communists sure have done a great job in convincing the uninformed that the sky is falling.  

How dare they? 

Comrade Merrick continues, “I’m all for preserving the PFD into the future, and I believe Alaskans want that, as well; with the current formula, there are only a few dividends left before the money’s gone.”

Preserving the PFD into the future?  There are parents and grandparents and children and grandchildren today who are not benefitting from the PFD program, because of Comrade Merrick’s Marxist ideology of growing government at any cost. 

Many conservative legislators have earnestly worked to slow the level of government spending. Decreasing government spending will help our state economy, our fiscal rating, and improve the prosperity of the APF.  

But sadly, because of communists like Comrade Merrick, government is the major industry in Alaska.  It should not be.  

Comrade Merrick is the hold up for the conference committee. 

The reality is the 41st member of our House side of the state Legislature, her husband, Joey Merrick, Business Manager of the Laborer’s Union Local 341.  He pulls the strings to vanquish the PFD in favor of a larger capital improvements budget. Through his influence and other communists in the House, Comrade Merrick remains the disingenuous and phony conservative.  She is the hold up because she wants more capital spending and less PFD. This is no doubt this is a planned concession to the unions.  

While the platitudes in her response seem to indicate she is for a PFD payout, her actions and voting show she is not.  Please don’t take my word, look at her APOC statement, look at her voting, and look who she associates with.

Michael Tavoliero is a realtor in Eagle River, is active in the Alaska Republican Party and chairs Eaglexit.

Read Because of one vote, the Permanent Fund may be raided. 

Dan Fagan: They claim they slashed budget by 40%, but here’s what they didn’t tell you

By DAN FAGAN

If you live in Republican Sen. Josh Revak’s district, you likely received a flyer from him during his last campaign cycle boasting about the deep cuts he and his fellow legislators have made to the state budget in recent years. 

Revak and others claimed to cut the budget a whopping 40% since 2013.

Former Senate President Cathy Giessel famously used the 40% budget cut figure to justify her raiding of the Permanent Fund Earnings Reserve Account to keep special interests happy. Giessel also used the 40% number as evidence there’s no more room for cutting in state government. 

Readers will remember Giessel opposed most of Mike Dunleavy’s first year budget cuts back when the governor was a budget hawk. He no longer is.   

The media and liberal bloggers were more than happy to play along and repeat the 40% budget cut claim. 

But a report released Monday by the think tank Alaska Policy Forum shows the 40% budget cut figure is nothing more than a myth. 

“Alaska Policy Forum’s examination of total state spending and the cost of state government over the years finds that politicians have used smoke and mirrors to mislead Alaskans concerning budget cuts and spending,” the report reads. 

The AFP report found the 40 percent figure compares the 2013 budget to the 2020 budget. The 2013 budget had a much larger capital budget than the 2020 budget. Capital budgets are typically considered low hanging fruit in the world of budget cutting. They generally pay for projects and infrastructure. 

It is the operating and supplemental budgets that are close to impossible to cut. Cutting operating budgets means fewer state employees. Public employee union bosses don’t like that one bit. 

“While Alaska has made strides to reduce state spending by cutting the capital budget, the size and expense of state government have changed very little,” the APF report reads. 

The AFP reports the 2013 budget compared to current Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s most recent budget represents only an 18.8% reduction.

AFP Executive Director Bethany Marcum says when you factor in the amount of money it takes to run the state every year, the budget reduction is only 8.8% compared to 2013.   

You might be surprised to know the 8.8% in the reduction in the cost of state government from 2013 to 2020 did not come at the hands of the current occupant of the governor’s mansion. 

In fact, Dunleavy has ever so slightly increased the cost of state government since elected even though he ran as a budget cutting governor. 

If you were to blame anyone for the current morbid obesity of Alaska’s state government, it would have to be the queen of conservatives, Sarah Palin, and former Gov. Sean Parnell. 

Palin gave us the largest tax increase in Alaska’s history in ACES, the “progressive” oil tax system. She then quit, which gave Parnell the opportunity to take the tidal wave of cash pouring into state coffers and spend, spend, spend. 

Parnell spent close to a total of $7 billion on his capital budgets. The spending brought in tens of billions of federal matching dollars. Anyone care to offer a guess of what we got for those tens of billions in capital expenditures? My guess is much of it went toward studies. Or is there a slew of newly constructed roads and bridges I’m unaware of? 

Parnell’s third budget was $3 billion larger than his first. 

The spending during the Parnell years was so out of control he approved a plan to fly rural Alaskans into Anchorage for free if they promised to attend the then declining and sparsely attended Great Alaska Shootout basketball tournament.

The word “no” was not often heard in Juneau after ACES passed and the dollars flowed. 

The Alaska Policy Forum report proves little has changed when it comes to politicians standing up to the Juneau Swamp and doing something about the state’s Jabba-the-Hutt-sized government. 

Now when politicians claim they’ve reduced government by 40% and then say there’s nothing more to cut, you know the rest of the story. 

Dan Fagan hosts the number one rated morning drive radio show on Newsradio 650 KENI. 

Rep. Geran Tarr: The $525 PFD is a type of systemic racism

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East Anchorage Democrat Rep. Geran Tarr unloaded on Facebook about the possible $525 Permanent Fund dividend the Conference Committee of the Legislature has threatened. She doesn’t like being held hostage, and she says it’s a form of systemic racism against the poor in her district.

“Oh, great. Because manipulation is such an effective tool for bipartisan cooperation. This is so disappointing. Instead of actually trying to work together in a bipartisan way budget negotiators have chosen to try and strong arm the House Republicans into a three-quarter vote. … I’m convinced my colleagues won’t be satisfied until they have taken every last penny from the poor children I represent,” she wrote on Facebook.

Tarr, one of the most far-left legislators in Juneau, predicted that the governor will veto a $500 PFD and force the Legislature to take up the matter again in an August special session.

“For me, what is so hard is I thought Democrats stood for working people for poor people, and these unfair and unjust proposals just perpetuate systemic racism and poverty. My colleagues have so little respect for me and the 18,000 people I represent they completely ignore the needs of my district. One group will be happy with this: the very wealthy people in the Privileged People’s Club, oops, I mean the legislature,” Tarr wrote.

The legislator was referring to the Conference Committee’s hardline tactic to force a majority to vote on the budget, accessing the Constitutional Budget Reserve, and the sweep process for unused funds from last year, called the reverse sweep.

Her comments will challenge others representing lower-income Alaskans as the House and Senate face a vote as early as Monday night on the budget compromise offered from Conference Committee.

For details, read our earlier report: Conference Committee sets PFD at $525 or $1,100, depending.

Tshibaka places first TV ad buy 14 months before primary

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Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kelly Tshibaka today released the first television ad of the 2022 election. The ad features Tshibaka describing her own Alaska story and outlining her core conservative principles. The ad, launched some 14 months before the primary election, will run on local broadcast outlets and on cable television, the campaign said.

In the ad, Tshibaka speaks of her parents, who moved to Alaska in the 1970s and were homeless for a time. She says her background is what shaped her beliefs.

“Growing up wasn’t always easy,” Tshibaka says in the ad. “My mom and dad were homeless, surviving in a canvas tent. But tough times made me who I am today. I’m a conservative. Pro-life. Pro-2nd Amendment. And America first. Always. We’re raising our five kids with those same Alaska values.”

Tshibaka is challenging Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who she describes as a D.C. insider out of touch with Alaska and who enabled the Biden Administration to assault Alaska’s oil and natural gas jobs.

“The insiders don’t like me because I spent my career exposing taxpayer fraud and abuse,” Tshibaka says in the ad. “That’s okay. I’m not running for them. I’m running for you.”

The television ad follows a paid digital ad Tshibaka launched last week, running on social media sites, selected websites, and streaming services.

Read: Tshibaka starts digital ad campaign for Senate.

Fire season is here, as lightning keeps crews busy on the Loon Lake Fire on the Kenai

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The Loon Lake Fire burning in the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge became more active Sunday, according to the Division of Forestry, which has received numerous calls from concerned residents who could spot a smoke column from the Sterling Highway and elsewhere.

The lightning-ignited fire grew from six acres Sunday morning to about 150 acres by 5 p.m.

The fire was reported at around 8 p.m. on Saturday and is burning in dense black spruce about 1 mile from where the Swan Lake Fire was started by lightning on June 5, 2019.

The Loon Lake Fire is burning in a remote area of the refuge about 10½ miles northeast of Sterling and is not a threat to the community, or any structures, the division said.

An air tanker based in Palmer dropped water on the fire and two water-scooping aircraft based at the BLM Alaska Fire Service continue to bomb the fire with water. A helicopter from the Kenai/Kodiak Area Forestry station has also been making water drops on the fire and another helicopter has been hired for additional bucket work.

Refuge managers have given the Division of Forestry permission to drop retardant around the fire to slow its spread and give firefighters on the ground a chance to attack and build containment lines.

The 17-person Gannett Glacier Type 2 Initial Attack Crew is being helicoptered into the fire and was due to arrive on the wireline by 7 p.m. Sunday. Two more hotshot crews – the Pioneer Peak Hotshots and Midnight Sun Hotshots – have been ordered and will arrive at the fire on Monday.

Meanwhile, the wildfire near the Salcha River in the Interior was 60 percent contained by firefighters on Sunday – an increase of 30 percent from Saturday. Crews have started gridding the interior of the fire for any hot spots that need to be extinguished to achieve full containment.

So far in 2021, there are 169 wildfires that have burned 7,443 acres. Four wildfires were reported on Saturday and there are 26 active wildfires as of this writing, but just three of them are staffed, while the others are being monitored. According to the division, 145 of the fires this year were human-caused.

A burn-suspension is in effect for the Tok area, due to high wildfire danger, increased human activity, and limited initial attack resources. All burning permitted by small- and large-scale burn permits is banned during a burn suspension, including outdoor debris/brush burning and the use of burn barrels.

Small campfires of less than 3 feet or less in diameter with flames lengths no higher than 2 feet are still allowed during a suspension, with extreme caution advised.

Yukon Quest for 2022 will be two races

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For the 39th running of the Yukon Quest International Sled Dog Race, the board of directors has decided that the race will be split in two, since it is still unclear if the Canadian government will open its border.

The first race will start in Fairbanks on Feb. 5, and the other will start in Whitehorse, Yukon Territory on Feb. 19. That way if the border does open, long-distance mushers will be able to run both races, Covid-19 regulations permitting, with rested teams. Usually, the 1,000-mile race is run in even-numbered years from Fairbanks to Whitehorse, and reversed in odd-numbered years.

The announcement came months earlier than last year’s announcement in September, when the cancellation of the 2021 race was announced due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which was surging.

Conference Committee sets PFD check at either $525 or $1,100, as dividend becomes a bargaining chip for budget

The Alaska Legislature’s Conference Committee unveiled the Permanent Fund dividend for this year: It will be either $525, or $1,100, depending on whether the House and Senate can get enough votes to access the Constitutional Budget Reserve and enact the reverse sweep of unused funds from various accounts.

That takes several tricky votes and the dividend is the leverage to get legislators to pass a budget with a fraction of a dividend that will no doubt cause an uproar with at least some members of the public.

In other words, it is the Bargaining Chip PFD that came out of Conference Committee on Sunday.

The Legislature, meeting in a locked building for the entire session, is on Day 145 of session, and it all hinges on the Permanent Fund dividend, which is essentially bringing all its other budget-making to a halt. This is occurring during a time when the overall budget is one of the largest in recent memory, and when the Pension Funds obligations are nearly paid off and the price of oil is over $73 a barrel.

Today, with no members of the public present, the conference committee settled on a dividend that would require pro-dividend legislators to vote for the fifth year in favor of a dividend that is calculated in violation of Alaska Statute.

The statutory dividend would be over $3,000; the governor is requesting a dividend of $2,350, which is 50 percent of the available funds from the Earnings Reserve Account, the same amount that would be released under his proposed constitutional amendment, which has not passed House or Senate.

The budget doesn’t balance without using funds from the Constitutional Budget Reserve, but that takes a three-quarters vote of the Legislature. That’s where the extra $600 PFD payment would come in. To get into the Constitutional Budget Reserve, the two chambers need a three-quarter vote.

Legislators are being put in a bind: To pass the budget and the dividend, the House needs 21 of the 40 representatives to vote yes, and the Senate needs 11 of its members to do so. But to approve an “effective date,” which would prevent a government shutdown on July 1, the House would need 27 votes and the Senate would need 14.

Rep. Bart LeBon of Fairbanks, who sits on the conference committee, voted in favor of the $525-$1,100 dividend. So did Rep. Kelly Merrick of Eagle River. In fact, all but Sen. Donny Olson of Golovin and Neal Foster of Nome voted in favor of the committee report.

LeBon said it seems like a fair compromise. But whether his fellow Republicans in the House agree seems unlikely, given most of the 20 are in favor of a full dividend, and there are some Democrats who also may balk at such a tactic being used on them to rob their low-income constituents.

The House and Senate members have been split on the question of the dividend for the entire session. In the House, due to the PFD deadlock, the budget ended up with a zero dividend, while the Senate put in the 50-50 amount which is about $2,300, which passed by a vote of 12-8, and an amendment to spend $1.5 billion from the Permanent Fund Earnings Reserve Account to pay for it the PFD passed, 11-9.

The conference committee report will be printed, sent to both chambers, and then the members must be given 24 hours to look it over before a vote is taken, so the earliest it could be voted on is Monday night. If the report fails, the composition of the conference committee is blown up, and a new conference committee will be appointed with free powers to negotiate.

But meanwhile, pink slips go out to all State workers on Thursday afternoon, and the Legislature’s special session ends on Friday.

How legislators vote on the PFD will set up the framework for the 2022 election cycle, when all members of the House are up for reelection, and half of the Senate will be as well. Senate seats A, C, E, G, I, K, M, O, Q, and S are all on the ballot, as is the governor.

Mark Hamilton: Build your media filter based on science, not narrative

By MARK HAMILTON

(Editor’s note: This is the eighth in a series by Mark Hamilton about the history of the Pebble Project in Alaska.)

We are engaged in a contest between facts and narratives. This observation has been discussed in several books and papers recently, but I believe it is important for all of us to be aware of the unequal battlefield to which we are subjected.

This is a necessary exercise in order to decide what kind of “filter” you wish to arm yourself with in considering any controversial issue.  

Sadly, the very word “controversial” has been highjacked by the narrative crowd. In seeking audiences to inform about the Pebble mine project, I was turned down many times with the (usually regretful) statement, “We don’t allow controversial subject matters.” What? The word “controversial” simply means there are opinions on both sides of an issue.  How has this become a “hands off” topic?

Nowhere is this attitude more harmful than on our university campuses. My 12 years as the president of the University of Alaska thankfully predated an alarming trend. Understand that the foundation of higher learning is the dialectic. This protocol describes the contest of ideas, wherein a thesis, developed, supported, and explained confronts an antithesis (anti-thesis) also developed, supported and explained to be reasoned together in search of a synthesis (a newly discovered blending) that will more closely approximate truth. These contests of ideas do not necessarily require emotional indifference, indeed childlike name calling has added a bit of spice to several of these historical intellectual duels. While there may be room for emotion and passion, these diminish in the face of data and research.

What is the new learning protocol when we observe multiple universities creating “safe zones”?  Spaces that specifically outlaw conflicting ideas. Without the conflict of ideas, without the allowance of antitheses, without the reasoning together, what is left of our ability to learn?  We are left with uncontested narratives to voice opinions devoid of fact.  

Only slightly better are contested narratives assuming they are allowed on the social media link you are a part of. At least in the weighing of contested narratives, you could detect logical fallacies, or outrageous exaggerations.

What about facts?  It’s just too easy to exclaim we can never determine the facts. Of course, you can.  It may involve listening to several, certainly more than one news agency, discovering the differing interpretations, and exploring the issue yourself.  It may involve searching the several sources of baseline data compiled by agencies with no agenda except formulating their business model.  Insurance companies care about valid statistics about age and gender to construct their insurance plans, not to issue a public opinion.

Their data might be more reliable than data quoted to support a narrative.  

True, there are a huge number of issues that you just don’t care to research yourself. I certainly join you in that. In those situations, assuming that we are interested in the resolution of the debate, we are forced to rely on experts.  But here we are faced with a similar problem, which experts to rely on.

As you build your own filter, I recommend you look closely at the track record of reliability. What source of facts has predicted the outcome? That’s what your filter should do, help you in determining the outcome of controversial issues.

For example, if your sources have predicted that the world’s oil will run out in the next decade on three or four previous occasions, and that has not occurred; it’s time to find a new expert.  

Insistence on dealing with facts can deal you out of a lot of current discussions. Facts need to be verified; narratives only need to be repeated.

But while you are depending on experts, narratives are depending on clicking “SHARE.” There is no need for a narrative to disprove your facts if they can just overwhelm you with repetition; how many followers do you have? How many do they have?

While you are looking for a “LIKE” with logic; opponents are getting a “COMMENT” with emotion.

It will take some time to build your own filter, it will involve testing it with your own predictions, or predicting the path of opponents’ narratives. Only then can you avoid getting “Pebbled.”

The “Pebbled” series at Must Read Alaska is authored by Mark Hamilton. After 31 years of service to this nation, Hamilton retired as a Major General with the U. S. Army in July of 1998. He served for 12 years as President of University of Alaska, and is now President Emeritus. He worked for the Pebble Partnership for three years before retiring. The series continues next week. 

Pebbled 1: Virtue signaling won out over science in project of the century

Pebbled 2: Environmental industry has fear-mongering down to an art

Pebbled 3: The secret history of ANWR and the hand that shaped it

Pebbled 4: When government dictates an advance prohibition

Pebbled 5: EPA ‘just didn’t have time’ to actually go to Bristol Bay

Pebbled 6: The narrative of fear

Pebbled 7: The environmentalists who cried wolf

Coast Guard, CDC: We’ll change the mask rule, but for now won’t enforce masks on fishing boats, commercial vessels, ferries

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The Centers for Disease Control and U.S. Coast Guard, reversing their position from less than a month ago, said the federal agencies will no longer enforce its rule for wearing a mask in “outdoor areas of transportation conveyances or while outdoors at transportation hubs.”

That means commercial vessels like cruise ships, ferries, fishing boats, and charters won’t require passengers to mask up for those who are outdoors. And people don’t have to wear masks at “transportation conveyances,” such as train stations.

Marine Safety Information Bulletin (MISB) 02-21 Change 2 reflects updated enforcement policy.

To be clear, the rule still exists, but the agencies will not enforce it.

“Relatedly, CDC announced that, until it can amend the Order, it will exercise its enforcement discretion to not require wearing a mask in outdoor areas of transportation conveyances or while outdoors at transportation hubs,” the CDC wrote.

Read: CDC says fishing crews must wear masks

Earlier this year at a fishing conference, Sen. Dan Sullivan called the fishing crew mask rule “stupid.”

“Now we have another stupid regulation that our fishermen need to wear masks. Senator Murkowski and I have been pressing this relentlessly on a call with the Coast Guard commandant, a call with the White House guy who’s supposedly in charge of all the CDC issues, we had a meeting with the head of the CDC, we are trying to explain to them how, no offense, but just how stupid this is and how uninformed it is. And it could be a safety issue, not with regard to COVID, but with having to wear masks when you’re out on the deck of a ship in 30 foot waves trying to bring in gear or pots. So, we’re going to continue to work on that one,” Sullivan said.