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Survey: Alaskans may give Trump his biggest win yet, but Harris ahead among ‘other’ gender voters

Alaska Survey Research’s poll from Oct 8-9 shows that Donald Trump could win Alaska with as much as 54.1% of the vote — at least among super-voters, specifically those most likely to actually vote by Nov. 5.

Trump won Alaska in 2016 with 51.28% of the vote, and again in 2020 with 52.83% of the vote. This could be his best year yet for the Alaska voters, if the recent poll is any gauge.

The survey question to a group of super-voters was: If the November 2024 general election for US President was held today, for whom would you vote?

If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. advanced to the elimination round, the results were:

  • Kamala Harris: 42.9%
  • Donald Trump 49.8%
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 7.4%

Then for the second elimination round in the ranked-choice voting scheme, the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. voters picked Trump over Harris and the final result was:

  • Harris: 45.9%
  • Trump: 54.1%

Of course, super-voters are not the only ones who will cast their ballots, and so the favorability ratings of the candidates among all likely voters (including but not just super-voters) gives another perspective.

In a question to 1,434 panelists, ASR asked was if they had a positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative or negative (or no view) of Trump. Trump is overall seen slightly negatively by the participants in Alaska. But when it came time to vote, they still picked him over Harris, who Alaska voters see even more negatively.

  • Harris was seen somewhat negatively by 12.2% She was seen very negatively by 45.2%, for a total of 67.4% negative.

Only 10.3% of Alaskans who took the survey see Harris very positively, and 18.2% see her somewhat positively, for a total of 28.5% positive. Another 3.5% had no opinion of her at all.

When it comes to rating positive and negative for Trump, feelings were strong:

Trump was seen very negatively by 43.1% and somewhat negatively by 7.9%, for 49% total in the negative column. He did better than Harris in this category.

Trump was rated very positively by 27.5% and somewhat positively by 18.8%, for a total positive of 46.3%. He also did better than Harris in this category.

Trump is in better shape going into the election in Alaska than than Harris, according to these results.

An interesting side note on the survey is that Alaska Survey Research shows Harris winning in Southeast Alaska (Harris – 55.8% to Trump – 44.2%); winning in rural Alaska (Harris – 52.1% to Trump – 47.9%); losing in Southcentral Alaska (Harris – 30.5% to Trump – 69.5%); winning in Anchorage (Harris – 51.8% to Trump – 48.2%); and losing in Fairbanks (Harris – 48.9% to Trump – 51.1%).

The gender breakdown of the positive and negative opinions of Harris, Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., JD Vance, and Tim Walz were telling:

Men:

  • Trump was seen positively by 50.9% and negatively by 47%.
  • Harris was seen positively by 41.5% and negatively by 53.3%.
  • Kennedy Jr. was seen positively by 43% and negatively by 46.1%.
  • Vance was seen positively by 45.8% and negatively by 42.4%
  • Walz was seen positively by 36.4% and negatively by 49%.

Women:

  • Trump was seen positively by 41.9% and negatively by 54.6%.
  • Harris was seen positively by 41.5% and negatively by 53.3%.
  • Kennedy Jr. was seen positively by 37.7% and negatively by 36.4%.
  • Vance was seen positively by 34% and negatively by 41.2%.
  • Walz was seen positively by 34.9% and negatively by 32.1%.

For people who chose “other” as a gender:

  • Trump was seen positively by 14.8% and negatively by 85.2%.
  • Harris was seen positively by 63.5% and negatively by 36.5%.
  • Kennedy Jr. was seen positively by 4.7% (not a typo) and negatively by 57.5%.
  • Vance was seen positively by 4.7% and negatively by 77.4%.
  • Walz was seen positively by 49.3% and negatively by 23.7%.

The “other” gender totaled just 1.7% of the poll, only about 24 people. Sample sizes this small are difficult to trust.

Important to the survey context is that in 2020, Alaska Survey Research found in its Oct. 6 poll of 676 likely voters that 46% were likely to vote for Biden and 50% said they would pick Trump. That was close but Trump outperformed in the election in Alaska. He won Alaska with nearly 53% of the vote that year, while Biden received less than 43% of the Alaskan vote.

The Alaska Survey Research polls typically list to the left. This particular poll appears to lean heavily toward college-educated Alaskans, which would skew the results toward the liberal side.

Rep. Jamie Allard: I have faith voters will repeal the ranked-choice wolf in sheep’s clothing

By REP. JAMIE ALLARD

When I listen to my constituents, common concerns rise to the surface. People care about their daughters having a fair chance in sports. They worry about their kids in failing schools. They’re concerned about increasing taxes and how to survive in this economy. Curiously, they love the idea of ending daylight savings time.

And they overwhelmingly hate ranked-choice voting. 

Presented as an innovative new voting method that would save us all from our two-party duopoly, dark Outside money flooded into our state to deceive voters in 2020, inflicting this disastrous experiment upon us.

According to its proponents, RCV was intended to increase voter participation and reduce polarization by allowing voters to rank candidates in order of preference. Even if implemented with good intentions, which I doubt, ranked-choice voting has had far-reaching consequences in Alaska, leading to confusion, voter fatigue, and the disenfranchisement of marginalized communities.

In the aftermath, many Alaskans feel disillusioned. A system that was sold to simplify voting has, in reality, made it more confusing and complicated.

For example, in the 2022 elections, countless ballots were rejected due to errors in the ranking process, with voters either misunderstanding how to rank candidates or not ranking enough.

In rural areas, where voters have limited access to voter education, the confusion was even more profound. Remote communities, in particular, struggled with the system, due in part to language barriers. Reports surfaced of voters being confused how to properly rank candidates. Some voters mistakenly believed their vote would only count for their first choice, while others didn’t fully understand that ranking fewer candidates could influence the outcome if their top choice was eliminated early. Confused voters are more likely to make errors that invalidate their ballots or prevent their true preferences from being counted, effectively disenfranchising them. 

Since ballots with fewer ranked preferences are exhausted as an election goes through multiple rounds of eliminations, voters who rank more candidates essentially have more power.

And for a voter to feel confident in their rankings, they must spend even more time gathering enough information about candidates to form an opinion, sometimes up to 4 candidates, or an endless number in the presidential race. This creates an elite group of voters with time and access to information and contributes to voter fatigue. Voter fatigue discourages people from voting at all. 

When one person has one vote, the outcome of the election clearly represents the will of the people. Ranked voting and jungle primaries reduce voter confidence. The outcomes are convoluted, lack transparency, and do not ensure that our representatives have our support.

As clearly demonstrated when Mary Peltola won the first RCV election, in Round 1 of counting, nearly 51% of the people did not align with her values, and yet she is who we ultimately sent to represent our state as a whole in Congress. This large-scale misrepresentation feels deceitful and turns voters away. What’s worse, ballots are easily cast out, because everything must be tabulated by specialized machines to track the complicated process. Voters end up wondering why they should even bother.

Misrepresentation seems to be the theme, as promises that Ranked Choice Voting would put an end to Outside money influencing our elections fall flat. Why is there so much interest for outside organizations to dump money into our elections? 

Born of this frustration and voter regret, Ballot Measure 2 this year seeks to repeal Ranked Choice Voting and return us to our previous foolproof system—one person, one vote. But now, dark money is at it again, with opponents of Ballot Measure 2 outspending supporters by nearly $8 million, flooding the airwaves with misleading advertisements about the supposed benefits of RCV. 

As if the confusion surrounding Ranked Choice Voting wasn’t bad enough, the opposition to Ballot Measure 2 is now spreading blatant falsehoods in their advertisements, adding yet another layer of confusion for voters.

One of the most egregious claims is that if Ballot Measure 2 passes, military personnel and veterans will be forced to register with a political party in order to vote. This is simply untrue and a direct attempt to scare voters into opposing a measure that would return fairness and simplicity to our elections. These political wolves should be ashamed of themselves. Their lies are a stain on our right to vote, a right that was purchased with the blood of the very people at the center of their deception.

The language of Ballot Measure 2 is crystal clear: our elections would return to the way they were before Ranked Choice Voting, and that has never required Alaskans to register with a political party to vote. Alaska has a long history of open primaries, where any voter—whether registered as an independent, non-partisan, or undecided—can choose to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary. This has been the case for decades, and nothing in Ballot Measure 2 changes that.

The opposition’s strategy is to confuse voters, falsely implying that a repeal of Ranked Choice Voting would take away their rights. This is a tactic of desperation, using outright lies to keep a flawed system in place. In truth, returning to a simple, one-person-one-vote system would only bring back the clarity and fairness that Alaskans deserve.

Though the system played to their advantage in 2022, even Democrats are worried about the outcome this time, as they panic to remove an incarcerated felon from the ballot. They seem to be uncomfortable with the shoe on the other foot. 

We may be up against a Goliath of outside money and political schemes, but I have faith that our communities have unmasked this wolf in sheep’s clothing, and we will successfully repeal the disastrous Ranked Choice Voting.

The word on the streets is a resounding “Yes!” Vote YES on Ballot measure 2! One person, One vote. 

Rep. Jamie Allard serves Chugiak-Eagle River District 23 in the Alaska Legislature.

Listicle: Follow the money at the ‘No on 2’ campaign, which has $12.3 million — most tracing back to the John and Laura Arnold dark network

The No on 2 group has nearly $12.3 million in the bank to try to convince Alaskans to vote no on Ballot Measure 2, and thus keep ranked-choice voting in Alaska.

Voting yes would return voting to its previous, normal procedures.

The advertising is relentless in Alaska in the weeks leading up to the election, in part because the polling shows that Alaskans want to go back to regular voting. The “No on 2” campaign has more money than any candidate running for office in Alaska. Who is actually funding all these “No on 2: ads?

Here are some of the biggest contributors to No on 2:

$4,400,000: Article IV, a secretive group out of Arlington, Virginia that has associates of John Arnold (Enron) on its board. Arnold is the Texas billionaire who was one of the biggest funders of the original ballot measure that brought ranked-choice voting to Alaska in 2020. This group’s funding sources are secretive. This campaign donation was made in October.

Article IV has made ranked-choice voting one of its priorities, as it is a mission of Arnold Ventures. In 2022, it gave a $400,000 grant to Utah Ranked Choice Voting Action and $342,000 to Oregon Ranked Choice Voting Advocates, as well as others.

What is known is that some of its money comes through the Arabella Advisors network, including the Hopewell Fund, which has funded liberal causes in Alaska.

The executive director of Article IV is George Wellde, who was the vice chairman of the Securities Division at Goldman, Sachs & Co. from 2005-2008. Sam Mar, employed by Arnold Ventures, is a director and secretary of the board of Article IV.

Article IV in 2022 made a grant to the Alaska League of Women Voters in Anchorage. The League of Women Voters produces official voter guides for the Municipality of Anchorage and a $7,500 grant is a large grant for the organization. The group also does election monitoring. The Alaska League of Women Voters opposes Ballot Measure 2 in its official statement on its website.

Article IV grant to Alaska League of Women Voters, from IRS 990 form. After this grant, the League of Women Voters took a position against Ballot Measure 2.

$2,000,000: Act Now Initiative, of Houston. The Act Now Initiative is another spoke of the John and Laura Arnold network. Arnold was a hedge fund trader with Enron who now funds ranked-choice voting. Key word: Arnold Ventures.

$20,000: A4, the same group as Article IV above out of Arlington, Virginia. This donation was a non-monetary contribution of work by subcontractor Objective First Communications LLC, of Atlanta, Ga. Donation reported in September.

$2,000,000: Unite America PAC: Another one of the promoters of ranked-choice voting. Unite America is associated with Kathryn Murdoch, one of the funders of ranked-choice voting in Alaska in 2020. Reported in August.

$28,250: Unite America PAC, another one of the promoters of ranked-choice voting. Unite America is associated with Kathryn Murdoch, another one of the funders of ranked-choice voting in Alaska in 2020. Here’s where it gets its money. Donation reported in September.

$10,000: Unite America PAC non-monetary. Reported in August.

$2,000,000: Unite America PAC, see above. Reported in August.

$220,000: Peter Kelly, of Mill Valley, Calif. Donation was reported in September.

$220,000: Robert Small, of Berkshire Partners in Boston. Reported in August.

220,000: Jennifer Sandall, no employment but same address as Robert Small in Boston. Reported in August.

$200,000: William Thorndike, Cromwell Harbor Partnership, Boston. Reported in August.

$220,000: Robin Richards Donohoe, investments, Carrollton, Georgia. Reported in August.

$150,000: Final Five Fund, Chicago. Founded by Katherine Gehl, who helped finance the 2020 campaign in Alaska to enact ranked-choice voting. Read about Gehl and this group here. She is formerly on the board of Unite America, listed above as a funder of the No on 2 campaign. The Final Five Fund funnels donations. Read more about how they funded the ballot initiative to start ranked-choice voting in Nevada here.

$200,000: John Carroll, Summit Partners, Hingham, Mass.

$220,000: Dan Markovitz, Corte Madera, Calif. Reported in August.

$65,108: Unite America PAC, non-monetary, for polling. Reported in June.

$11,881: Alaskans for Better Elections, non-monetary, for email list purchase. Reported in June.

$100,000: Final Five Fund, see above for description. Reported in June.

There are other donors who top off the entire campaign fund, which had $12.3 million on its 30-day report required by Alaska Public Offices Commission.

Where has the money been spent by No on 2?

Here are some of the vendors who have been paid by the No on 2 group:

Juli Lucky, Anchorage, campaign management

Alliana Salanguit, Anchorage, deputy campaign management

Solstice Social Media Management, Fairbanks

Reeves Amodio LLC, legal counsel, Anchorage

Portland Highbaugh, events coordination, Anchorage

Jeff Carson, voter outreach, Anchorage

Northern State Media, video work, Juneau

Matthew Lastimoso, office work, Anchorage

The Mobilization Center, LLC, Anchorage

Alaska Survey Research, Inc, polling, Anchorage

NPG Van, data and lists, associated with national Democratic Party

Ship Creek Group, campaign company for Democrats, Anchorage

Sena Kozar Strategies, Washington, D.C., associated with Nancy Pelosi https://www.senakozar.com

Grace Jang Solutions, outreach and engagement, former comms director for Gov. Bill Walker

Alaska Federation of Natives, major event sponsorship for annual convention

Patinkin Research Strategies, polling, Gig Harbor, Wash.

Six-7 Strategies, owned by Kevin Sweeney, campaign support, Girdwood, Alaska

Bailey’s Strategies LLC, associated with Trina Bailey, assistant to Sen. Lisa Murkowski

True Blue Strategies, LLC, AFN materials, Seattle, Washington

Related: See where all the ad money is going and why the airwaves are being bombarded:

Alex Gimarc: Gov. Dunleavy’s Eklutna decision was reasonable

By ALEX GIMARC

Gov. Mike Dunleavy issued his final Eklutna Fish and Wildlife program this month.  

Documents supporting the decision can be found at the Eklutna Hydroelectric Project website.  This project is comprehensive, with significant local, state and national interest. Everything is thoroughly documented. And there are a lot of documents.  

The 1991 purchase agreement required the governor to give equal consideration to the eight following factors to “ensure Eklutna [is] best adapted for power generation and other beneficial public uses.”  These factors are:

  • Efficient and economical power generation and other beneficial public uses
  • Energy conservation
  • The protection, mitigation of damage to, and enhancement of fish and wildlife (including related spawning grounds and habitat)
  • The protection of recreational opportunities
  • Municipal water supplies
  • The preservation of other aspects of environmental quality
  • Other beneficial public uses
  • Requirements of state law

Note that all of this falls directly out of the 1991 purchase agreement and must be addressed as part of this Final Program.  

Dunleavy’s 30-page Decision Memorandum has a three-page transmittal letter and announced with State of Alaska Press Release 24-047.  Depending on how deep you want to dig into the Eklutna Fish and Wildlife Program, I would start with the press release, move to the transmittal letter, and then to the 30-page program detail.  Supporting documents for all this can be found in the Eklutna Hydro Project Documents page.  

The adopted Final Program will restore year-round water flow to the Eklutna River. This will require purchasers to provide funding for monitoring, habitat enhancement, lakeside trail repairs, creation of a “Monitoring and Adaptive Management Committee,” a pair of limited program re-openers for possible replacement of the existing outlet and spillway of the dam, and potential construction of a fish passage into and out of Eklutna Lake.  

Left unsaid is the observation that a continuous flow of water out of the lake will eventually require a higher water level in the lake. Water levels in the lake are highly variable over the course of the year leading to periodic dry riverbeds in sections.  Note that a 2017 paper by Loso, et al found no evidence of a former red salmon population spawning in the lake, although they could not preclude the existence of such a population before the original dam was constructed in 1929.  

From here, the Final Program is a reasonable approach that balances everything the governor was asked to do with the 1991 purchase agreement.  Commentors provided significant and what appears to me to be reasonable input.  The only significant disagreement appears to be a group from Eagle River calling itself The Conservation Fund that is dedicated to removing the dam.  

As I read the approved Final Program, it will be more difficult for a future governor, legislature or Anchorage Assembly majority to remove the dam.

From here, the approved Final Program is a reasonable approach to maintenance and improvement of what we have at Eklutna. 

The Governor, his team and the owners of Eklutna should be congratulated on a job well done under potentially difficult circumstances.

Alex Gimarc lives in Anchorage since retiring from the military in 1997. His interests include science and technology, environment, energy, economics, military affairs, fishing and disabilities policies. His weekly column “Interesting Items” is a summary of news stories with substantive Alaska-themed topics. He was a small business owner and Information Technology professional.

Michael Tavoliero: Is Alaska’s legislature really representing the people?

By MICHAEL TAVOLIERO

At times, the question “Do we have the best state legislature money can buy?” echoes loudly across Alaska’s political landscape, with a tintinnabulation of urgency, concern, and disillusion.

While we are fortunate to have some dedicated conservative lawmakers who, if allowed to participate in the legislative process freely, would undoubtedly steer Alaska back to its roots as a natural resource powerhouse, there’s a truth that can’t be ignored: These same representatives receive the majority of their campaign funding from the very constituents they represent — Alaskans who share their values and vision for the state and its future.

A growing number of candidates have strayed from this model of local support. Instead, a troubling trend has emerged, where campaign coffers are increasingly filled with donations from Big Labor and its powerful affiliates. 

This is no small issue. The ramifications of this are felt in Alaska’s socio-economic matrix and impacts Alaska’s future generations with present selfishness and future foolishness.

Each election cycle brings a growing number of candidates dependent on union-backed funding, with their campaigns fueled by organizations that prioritize their agendas over the well-being of Alaskans. This is evidenced by the expansion of government bureaucracy, escalating budgets, and a disconnect from the priorities of the people. Instead of restraining government power, candidates seem more focused on controlling the populace and abandoning the principles of limited governance that are essential for preserving Alaska’s freedom and prosperity.

Is your district being seduced by a candidate who floods you with grand promises of progress, assuring you that everything is improving because of his/her leadership?

Does the candidate captivate you with pledges that your community will prosper—not through thoughtful, long-term planning, but by handing out short-term pork-barrel projects timed perfectly to win votes each election cycle?

Behind this carefully crafted facade, have you noticed that this candidate is largely funded by Big Labor and its affiliates? The question then becomes: Is the candidate truly working for you, or for the special interests that bankroll his ambitions?

The influence of these organizations has surged to unprecedented levels in Alaska, and voters must confront this reality with urgency. If left unchecked, this dominance could reshape the state’s future in ways that no longer prioritize the needs of everyday Alaskans. It’s critical that voters examine the truth behind these campaigns now, before it’s too late to reclaim control from special interests.

In the 2024 election cycle, we see this trend. Many campaigns in Alaska are receiving minimal financial support from local constituents. Instead, they are largely funded by Big Labor, government employee unions, and their affiliates.

Who are these candidates really serving? What policies will they champion? The answers to these questions are crucial, as Alaska’s future hangs in the balance.

Labor unions, including public-sector unions, are pouring massive sums of money into the campaigns of candidates who promise to increase government spending—on Medicaid, on education without accountability, on reviving defined benefit pension plans, even as Alaska faces billions in unfunded liabilities, on the PFD, and on the continuing need for infrastructure development.

Medicaid Expansion: Who’s Really Benefiting?

The expansion of Medicaid in Alaska has been a contentious issue. Health is the largest component of Alaska’s operating budget. While federal funding significantly supports Medicaid in Alaska, the state will increasingly have to shoulder a larger portion of the costs, which could become a major fiscal issue in the coming years. Evergreen Economics in its Long-Term Forecast of Medicaid Enrollment and Spending in Alaska: FY2024-FY2044 sees this as an annual state and federal funding increase of 4.4%. 

While government funded health care may seem like a compassionate move, it’s important to question who is really benefiting from this money tree. With millions of federal dollars flowing into the state under Medicaid expansion, healthcare unions and their affiliates have reaped major financial rewards. 

Many candidates who support further expansion are not doing so out of concern for Alaska’s fiscal or its physical and mental health, but because they are backed by labor unions who stand to profit from the increased funding. And while some candidates make it seem like expanding Medicaid will solve Alaska’s healthcare issues, it also increases the state’s dependency on federal funding and deepens the state’s fiscal crisis.

Education Funding Without Accountability

Another area where Big Labor’s influence is glaring is education. Alaska’s education system has seen consistently increases in funding, but with little to show in terms of results. Education represents the second largest component of Alaska’s operating budget. 

The powerful teachers’ unions, which back many of these candidates, push for ever-higher budgets without addressing the accountability needed to ensure better outcomes for Alaska’s children. While more money flows into the system, Alaska continues to rank at the bottom in educational performance compared to other states. This is a truly dark cloud when we consider the needed levels of educated citizens necessary to propel Alaska into a strong future.

The unions, with their financial clout, continue to push for more education money without being held accountable for results—a dangerous cycle that leaves our children underserved and in dire straits as adults.

These candidates are very easy to single out since they preach about not enough state funding participation in education but are reticent on performance and outcome.

The Defined Benefits Debate: A Financial Time Bomb

The resurrection of defined benefit pension plans is perhaps one of the most dangerous policies being pushed by candidates supported by government employee unions. Alaska moved away from defined benefits years ago because they were financially unsustainable, leaving the state with billions in unfunded liabilities. Despite this, Big Labor-backed candidates are advocating for their return, which would only deepen Alaska’s fiscal woes. Who benefits from this? Government employees and their unions, while the average Alaskan is left holding the bill as liabilities balloon.

The Permanent Fund Dividend: A Political Football

Let’s talk about the Permanent Fund dividend. For years, conservative lawmakers have fought to preserve the PFD as a direct benefit to Alaskan families. But many in the legislature, backed by Big Labor and special interests, have been pushing to reduce or cap the dividend to fund government spending—spending that benefits the same labor unions that bankroll their campaigns. For almost a decade, these candidates argue that cutting the PFD is necessary to fund essential services and the state budget continues to grow, but it’s clear that their true agenda is to maintain the ever-growing government bureaucracy, which keeps their union backers happy.

Big Labor’s Insatiable Hunger

Alaska’s long and troubled pursuit of building infrastructure, particularly in the Bush, has become a significant financial and political burden. Over the decades, billions of dollars have been poured into expanding infrastructure—roads, airports, energy systems, and government facilities—yet many of these projects have failed to deliver the expected benefits. Instead, they have contributed to long-term debt, bloated bureaucracy, and economic strain.

Since the early 1980’s, Alaska has heavily relied on oil revenues to fund not only basic services but also ambitious infrastructure projects. While these projects were often aimed at improving the quality of life for residents, they frequently resulted in spiraling costs. The expense of maintaining this vast infrastructure has been immense, and it’s often argued that these projects were built without sufficient consideration of their long-term sustainability, all of which were spearheaded by Big Labor and the candidates it has bought and paid for.

Who Is Representing You?

The influence of Big Labor and its affiliates has reached record highs in Alaska. The questions for voters are simple: Who is your candidate accountable to? Are they working for their constituency? Are they beholden to the unions and special interests that finance their campaigns? 

It’s time to reclaim Alaska’s political future and support candidates who prioritize the needs of Alaskans, who take their funding from the grassroots, and who will fight for a state where natural resource development, fiscal responsibility, and individual liberty are prioritized over the interests of Big Labor and their agenda of unchecked government expansion.

Have you ever gone to The Alaska Public Offices Commission campaign income reports at this link and reviewed the financial reports?

Type in a candidate’s last name and click on search. It will produce an income report. For better clarity, you can produce an excel spreadsheet by clicking on “Export” and then click on “CVS.” This will produce a spreadsheet with will enable you to determine where the sources of campaign donations for this candidate come from. 

Michael Tavoliero resides in Eagle River and writes for Must Read Alaska.

Report: Secret Service failed mission when rank amateur killed one man, nearly killed Trump at rally

By BRETT ROWLAND | THE CENTER SQUARE

An independent review panel called for leadership changes and refocusing the U.S. Secret Service on its core mission after multiple severe and fatal failures during former President Donald Trump’s July 13 campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

The Department of Homeland Security’s Independent Review Panel identified six critical Secret Service failures at the rally and called for a raft of changes at the agency to prevent future failures. 

“The July 13 assassination attempt was not the work of a trained foreign adversary prepared to conduct a multi-dimensional attack and willing to sacrifice themselves in the process,” according to the report. “Rather, a young, local Pennsylvania man who had seemingly conceived of and executed his assassination plot within days after the former president’s rally was publicly announced had managed, with striking ease, to circumvent the Secret Service’s ‘no fail’ protective mission.”

Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, struck Trump in the ear, killed one person and injured two others when he opened fire at the former president’s July 13 rally near Butler, Pennsylvania. Secret Service agents shot and killed Crooks. 

The panel detailed key failures that day, including: 

  • The absence of personnel to secure the AGR building (the large, connected complex of buildings to the immediate north of the Farm Show grounds)
  • The failure to mitigate the line of sight threat posed by the AGR building;
  • Numerous communications issues including but not limited to the split structure of communications on July 13 which physically and electronically separated the Secret Service’s “Security Room” from the communications post used by local law enforcement;
  • The failure of anyone from the Secret Service or law enforcement to encounter Crooks, despite his being first spotted at approximately 4:26 p.m., more than ninety minutes before he began shooting at former President Trump and the assembled crowd;
  • The failure of anyone to inform former President Trump’s detail leadership about Crooks either before the former president took the stage or, even more crucially, in the last couple minutes when Crooks had taken to the roof of the AGR building; and
  • The failure of the detection component of the Secret Service’s Counter Unmanned Aerial System during a critical period of time when it could have detected Crooks operating a drone.

The panel’s report also made recommendations to improve the Secret Service.

“Two of the most important recommendations involve the necessity of new leadership at the Secret Service and the criticality of re-focusing the Secret Service on its core protective mission,” according to the report. “But there are many others regarding a wide range of topics including overhead surveillance, communications setup, integration with state and local partners, effective auditing and continuous improvement mechanisms, line of sight mitigation, extraction training, and numerous others.”

The panel also examined deeper concerns about the agency and criticized the Secret Service culture and lack of critical thinking, among other issues. 

“The panel has observed that many of the Secret Service personnel involved in the events of July 13 appear to have done little in the way of self-reflection in terms of identifying areas of missteps, omissions, or opportunities for improvement. July 13 represents a historic security failure by the Secret Service which almost led to the death of a former president and current nominee and did lead to the death of a rally attendee,” according to the report. “For personnel involved, given the multi-factor nature of the security failure, even a superficial level of reflection should yield insights regarding lapses and potential remediations. But many personnel struggled to identify meaningful examples of either type of observation – what went wrong and what could be done better in the future to prevent a similar tragedy from reoccurring.”

The panel dedicated its work to the firefighter killed at the rally and two others who were injured in the shooting. 

“The Panel dedicates its work to Corey Comperatore, James Copenhaver, David Dutch, and their families in the hope that no one again suffers the tragedies you have endured.”

Randy Daly: Ballot Measure 1 is a bad idea. Here’s why

By RANDY DALY

Ballot Measure Number 1, an act increasing the minimum wage in Alaska, does not get much discussion, which may lead to it passing, and that would be a bad thing for Alaska.

As an Alaskan business owner, I know firsthand that increasing expenses without an increase in value to the consumer leads to price increases for customers. Alaskans have experienced a 20% increase in consumer prices over the last four years.

Ballot measure 1 is a poorly timed bad idea. But hey, don’t take my word for it, there are many wiser and well qualified folks like Thomas Sowell, Tim Harford, and Charles Wheelan who all agree: 

Thomas Sowell, the famous economist and author of Wealth, Poverty and Politics, opposes raising the minimum wage because he argues that it leads to higher unemployment, especially for low-skilled workers. According to Sowell, minimum wage increases make it more costly for businesses to hire employees, which often leads them to reduce hiring, cut hours, or even lay off workers.

These policies can be especially detrimental to young and minority job seekers, as they may find fewer entry-level opportunities. Sowell suggests that market-based wages are more effective in promoting economic growth and improving overall employment rates.

Tim Harford, who wrote The Undercover Economist, opposes raising the minimum wage due to concerns about job loss and economic inefficiency. He argues that minimum wage increases often result in reduced employment opportunities, particularly for young and low-skilled workers. Harford emphasizes that wage floors interfere with market dynamics by distorting the natural balance between supply and demand for labor. This interference can lead businesses to cut back on hiring or to replace workers with automation.

Harford contends that such policies can ultimately harm the individuals they aim to help, as they reduce overall economic efficiency and job availability.

Charles Wheelan, author of Naked Economics, argues that raising the minimum wage can have unintended consequences that may harm those it aims to help. Wheelan believes that if the minimum wage is set above a worker’s marginal productivity (the value they bring to their job), businesses might respond by cutting jobs or automating roles to reduce labor costs. He also emphasizes that wage hikes can lead to fewer entry-level opportunities, which are crucial for unskilled workers to gain experience.

Instead, he suggests focusing on policies that enhance worker skills and productivity, addressing poverty more effectively without risking job losses.

Sowell, Harford, Wheelen, and I agree, increasing wage without increasing economic output, measured in quality, quantity, speed, or a combination of these things, creates higher prices, reduces economic efficiency and risks job loss.

These guys know what they are talking about. You might say they wrote the book on it. 

Ballot measure 1 is a poorly timed bad idea. Vote no on Ballot Measure 1.

Thomas R. “Randy” Daly is originally from Tok and now lives in Kenai. A graduate of East Anchorage High School and University of Alaska Anchorage, he is a former Marine, E Company 4th Recon., 4th Mar. Div., Elmendorf AFB; Communications Chief, Airborne, SCUBA, WSSI; Founder / Owner HiSpeed Gear! Inc.; former owner of a statewide business equipment dealership founded in 1998; former producer of Tom Randell Daly’s Show on KWHQ FM / Host on Sound Off KSRM AM; founder of Randy’s Garage, car sharing service founded in 2020; past president, Alaska Film Group; past president, Rotary Club of Kenai / Paul Harris Fellow; past president, Kenai Peninsula Economic Development District Board; married to his high school sweetheart and is the father of two.

Ranked-choice repeal is nail biter, but ‘No on 2’ has $12.2 million to hammer the airwaves with ads

According to Alaska pollster Ivan Moore of Alaska Survey Research, the prospect for the success of Ballot Measure 2 — repealing ranked-choice voting — is just about too close to call.

Ballot Measure 2 would undo the decision Alaska voters made in 2020 to change elections to a ranked-choice voting system.

The ASR poll, conducted Oct 8-9, 2024, shows that the repeal of ranked-choice voting is failing by a margin of less than 1%.

That’s remarkably close, since “No on 2” this year has more than $12.2 million to spend on ads, campaign materials, and coalition building. The group just received a $4.4 million infusion this month from a single Outside group, topping off their coffers for the final push.

The money to fight the repeal has come from mostly Outside dark money being deployed through a liberal network to convince Alaskans to keep ranked-choice voting. The ads are everywhere in Alaska, warning of terrible consequences if Alaskans go back to normal voting.

A few of the recent media ad buys by “No on 2” can be seen here, averaging over $1 million each:

The Alaska Survey Research question to Alaska voters earlier this month was straightforward:

“Ballot Measure 2 will get rid of open primary elections and ranked-choice general elections. It would bring back political party primaries and single-choice general elections. Elections will occur exactly as they did before a previous ballot measure changed the election laws in 2022. In the primary election, voters will choose a party’s ballot. They will vote for one candidate and the winning candidate will be the party’s nominee. In the general election, voters will select one candidate. The candidate with the most votes will win. This act would also bring back party petitions, special runoff elections, and other processes in place before 2022. It would put all election laws, except campaign finance laws, back the way they were before 2022. If the election was held today, would you vote yes or no on Ballot Measure 2?”

Among 1,254 likely voters, 49.9% said Yes and 50.1% said No.

When Alaska Survey Research asked the question of 886 super voters — those who consistently vote and who will absolutely vote on Nov. 5 — it was 50.1% Yes, and 49.9% No.

In 2020, when ranked-choice voting was first on the ballot, voters were persuaded by a similar multi-million-dollar advertising campaign that came from Outside Alaska.

Yet, even with all the money spent by the pro-RCV group, the measure barely passed, 50.55% to 49.45%.

This time, the group trying to repeal ranked-choice voting is vastly outspent and outmaneuvered by the Alaskans for Better Elections group, the “No on 2,” and their millions of dollars being used in Alaska’s media, in digital ads, and in flyers.

The “Yes on 2” group has only raised $67,849, mostly from Alaskans. The group has less than 1% of what the Outside dark money has poured into the “No on 2” campaign.

A similar poll conducted by Alaska Survey Research two weeks earlier showed that among likely voters, 51.5% were against repeal, and 48.5% were for the repeal.

Alaska Survey Research does polling primarily for liberal groups and candidates, and the results are often slanted toward the progressive side of a campaign, and the company has been contracted by the “No on 2” group to help gauge voter sentiment.

With a race this close, and with “No” ads purchased across the state, the noise from “No on 2” may only increase during the final stretch toward Nov. 5.

Election year cash flow: Robin Brena doles big dollars to Democrat candidates, and Valdez picks up the tab?

Alaska oil company foe Robin Brena has been doling out tens of thousands of dollars to mainly Democrat campaigns in Alaska this year, placing his bets on candidates who might raise taxes on oil companies if given the chance to take control of the Alaska House. The Alaska Senate is already under Democrat control.

Brena’s donations appear at the Alaska Public Offices Commission, showing his strong preference for people like Janice Park, a hardline Democrat, rather than moderate Republican incumbent Sen. James Kauffman who represents District F in South Anchorage.

Brena donated to Democrats House candidates Nick Moe, Cliff Groh, Denny Wells, and Ted Eischeid, and Senate candidates Sen. Scott Kawasaki, Savannah Fletcher, and Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick, who is fighting to keep her Eagle River seat in the Alaska Senate, where she has joined the Democrat-majority caucus.

Brena, who has made his sizable fortune suing oil companies, also has the municipal attorney contract for the City of Valdez, the terminus of the Trans Alaska Pipeline and one of the wealthiest municipalities in the state. That’s a contract that goes out to bid periodically and Brena, who is law partner with former Gov. Bill Walker, has won the contract for years. Many small towns in Alaska have their city attorneys on contract.

Valdez’s entire city budget is $72 million a year for a community of 3,500 people — over $20,571 per resident. The Law Department, with Brena as the contracted city attorney, has a budget of over $3.6 million, more than double what it was in 2020. His budget represents about 5% of the city’s overall budget.

Here is the Law Department budget and the actuals over the past four years:

This year, however, there were cost overruns in the Valdez Law Department, and so the City Council is awarding another $1.9 million to the contract. The increase was passed during this week’s council meeting.

The boost to Brena is nearly 53% increase for the legal services (Brena) provides in just one year. This is giving Brena the cash flow to boost Democrat candidates across the state to the tune of nearly $100,000 so far this year.

The City of Valdez has been suing the State of Alaska this year over a dispute about property taxes in a case that has dragged on for years.