With increased testing, comes a big one-day jump in Alaska cases of COVID-19, the Wuhan coronavirus. Some 59 Alaskans have now been diagnosed with the virus, which is extremely infectious and has no cure or vaccine.
Dr. Anne Zink, Alaska’s chief medical officer, said that two cases are in the hospital in critical care.
New cases include 11 cases in the Anchorage area, one case in Homer, two cases in Fairbanks-North Pole, and three more in Ketchikan. The Homer individual had traveled outside the state, did not return to Homer, and is in quarantined in Anchorage, according to MRAK sources.
Twenty-four of the current cases are travel-related, the others are either not known or spread by close contact with the person who traveled.
The cases discovered now are probably acquired some 10 days ago, said Dr. Jay Butler of the CDC, who spoke by phone during a press availability on Wednesday evening.
Butler said those who are dying from the virus are dying from pneumonia, and severe pneumonia is difficult to treat.
IS REP. JONATHAN KREISS-TOMKINS’ GROUP PUSHING POLITICALLY MOTIVATED DATA?
A prediction tool created by Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and his academic friends from the Ivy League world has predicted wildly inaccurate numbers regarding the spread of the coronavirus in Alaska.
The models created by CovidActNow are panicking officials nationwide and leading to faulty response, according to several critics, who have raised an alarm about what appears to be a stealth misinformation campaign that looks legitimate, at first glance.
A survey of statements made by the media was made by The Federalist that show how many are promoting the grossly misleading modeling tool to predict the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus.
The website touts itself as a tool “built to enable political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling.”
According to the Covid Act Now website, Alaska should have over 10 people hospitalized with the Wuhan coronavirus by now. But there’s just one hospitalization. The group says that without action, 15,000 Alaskans will die.
The flaws with the modeling came to light this week when Federalist author Madeline Osburn revealed that the models are not intended to be actually accurate, but were always designed to prompt policy action by political leaders. The group even says as much in its disclaimer, explaining that much of the data put into the model are likely to be wrong.
Rep. Kreiss-Tomkins, chair of the House State Affairs Committee, had his partners in the Covid Act Now project give a presentation to his committee, allowing them to give what may be false information to the Legislature.
The State Affairs Committee heard from Dr. Nirav Shah of Stanford University and modeler/mathematician Tomas Pueyo, both associated with the project that Rep. Kreiss-Tomkins cofounded.
“Dr. Shah and Mr. Pueyo testimony occurs first in the hearing. Mr. Pueyo published an article analyzing the spread of COVID that has received widespread acclaim, been translated into 28 languages, and been viewed 37 million times in the last week,” according to the Democrat-led House Majority press office.
The presentation avoided showing those wild predictions in Alaska that came out of the Covid Act Now group, but according to the model, Alaska’s hospital beds will be overwhelmed on April 12, 2020. That’s 18 days away.
One of the other cofounders of the modeling tool is Max Henderson, a supporter of Hillary Clinton in 2016, and a math whiz with a background in election predictions.
In addition to Sitka Rep. Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, who is a Democrat and an activist, there are other Democrat operatives involved in the project: Zachary Rosen and Igor Kofman, both steady donors to campaigns of Democrats and liberal political PACs. Rosen donated to the Democratic National Committee, as well as recently resigned California Democrat Rep. Katie Hill, who left Congress in disgrace, and other Democratic candidates.
Kofman, in his efforts to defeat Donald Trump, created an online game designed to raise $1 million for the eventual 2020 Democratic candidate. The app appears to be defunct, however.
What is really behind making wildly inaccurate and exaggerated predictions for a virus that has the whole world upended already?
Is it fake news, designed to scare politicians into adopting universal health care or Medicare for all?
Osburn suggests there is more than what meets the eye to this group.
“An interactive map provides users a catastrophic forecast for each state, should they wait to implement COVID Act Now’s suggested strict measures to “flatten the curve.” But a closer look at how many of COVID Act Now’s predictions have already fallen short, and how they became a ubiquitous resource across the country overnight, suggests something more sinister,” Osburn wrote.
“When Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins announced a shelter-in-place order on Dallas County Sunday, he displayed COVID Act Now graphs with predictive outcomes after three months if certain drastic measures are taken. The NBC Dallas affiliate also embedded the COVID Act Now models in their story on the mandate.”
Covid Act Now also predicted that by March 19 the state of Tennessee could expect 190 hospitalizations of patients with confirmed Wuhan virus. By March 19, they only had 15 patients hospitalized.
What’s more, the endorsements for the CoVID Act Now product include former Alaska Health and Social Services Commissioner Valerie Davidson, who served in the Gov. Bill Walker administration and expanded Medicaid across Alaska to able-bodied adults who do not have children to care for and who are over twice the poverty threshold.
The problem with predictive modeling is that the public must trust the source of the information.
In this instance, the source of the information has political ambitions, with backers who are clearly opposed to Republican wins in November.
“It was the best of times. It was the worst of times…it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness. It was the spring of hope; it was the winter of despair…”
The opening of Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities reminds me that whether it’s earthquake, fire, or pandemic the worst of times never fails to bring out the best in Alaskans.
Nome, Alaska, January 1925: Fiona, the middle grandchild, brought over a book to read with us: The True Story of Balto. Balto, a dog, lived in Nome with his Norwegian musher, Gunnar Kaasen. The story provided a teachable moment about Alaska’s Great Race – the Iditarod, and another Norwegian musher and his dog team that won the race in 2020.
It was also a time to talk about courage and sacrifice in trying times.
Alaska’s most famous mushing event happened in 1925. Two children in Nome were diagnosed with diphtheria and an epidemic threatened the entire town. The closest antitoxin was almost 900 miles away in Anchorage. Twenty pounds of serum was placed on a train that made it as far north as Nenana. Through a blizzard, the serum was then passed to 20 mushers and their teams who relayed the package almost 700 miles to Nome. The team that brought the serum into Nome was Balto and Kaasen who arrived on Front Street in the early morning. The serum was delivered in five and a half days.
Juneau, Alaska, October 1918: With a population closing in on 2,000, Juneau was the largest city in Alaska. Many of Juneau’s young men were in the military. The Spanish flu was hitting Juneau hard and October 1918 was the deadliest month of the entire pandemic. Over half a million Americans were dying from the pandemic. Those living in Juneau in 1918 surely felt it was “the worst of times/ a season of Darkness/a winter of despair.”
However, more testing of Juneau’s resolve was on the way.
The SS Princess Sophia departed Skagway in late October bound for Vancouver. In heavy snow, seas, and fog, the Sophia blew off course and grounded on Vanderbilt Reef. Several Juneau vessels immediately responded but Sophia’s captain thought it best to wait until the storm died down. Forty hours passed before the ship broke apart and quickly sank. All 353 lives were lost.
Ken Coates and Bill Morrison, authors of The Sinking of the Princess Sophia – Taking the North Down with Her wrote: “Almost every adult in Juneau was involved in the recovery of the victims – locating and escorting the bodies to a guarded warehouse; personal effects were transferred to the vaults at Behrend’s Bank. The cleaning and preparation of the oil soaked bodies for embalming was accomplished by a male team for male victims and a female team for women and children. The bodies then were readied for burial in Evergreen Cemetery or for shipment south.” The people of Juneau treated each victim with dignity and honor.
In the worst of times, Juneau’s best came out.
Juneau, Alaska, March 2020: We don’t know how severe this coronavirus pandemic will be or how long it will last. In some ways this makes it harder to deal with because we don’t know when the worst is over. We are learning what precautions to take and what symptoms to look for.
Meanwhile, while we are waiting and taking care of ourselves and others, let’s also help those who are taking a bigger hit than we are. A few suggestions:
Buy gift cards from local businesses online or call and ask where one is available.
Order takeout meals from local restaurants and add a generous tip.
Send financial support to local major food bank distribution centers.
Select a health and social service organization serving the most vulnerable and send a donation.
Pen a note to the transportation companies that are putting in countless hours supplying and resupplying the food and other goods we depend on. Don’t forget our Coast Guard and other military, medical, police, fire personnel, fuel delivery workers, grocers, postal workers, pharmacists, Customs and Border Protection, etc. If you failed writing class, purchase wrapped bake goods and drop them off with a thanks.
Lend a hand to all five, or do five of one, or any combination of five. Extend a helping hand and when we get the all-clear support a local bar or coffee shop for a celebratory alcoholic or non-alcoholic drink and make a point of taking that local tourism excursion that you always wanted to take. Stay safe.
Ken Koelsch is known as Juneau’s former “Poet Mayor,” elected to office in by a landslide in 2016 during a special election held when former Mayor Greg Fisk died on Nov. 30, 2015. Koelsch is a former longtime high school teacher at Juneau-Douglas High School.
In-person voting has been canceled for Alaska Democrats wanting to participate in their April 4 caucus-by-ballot primary for president of the United States.
But the Alaska Democratic Party has extended mail-in voting. Registered Democrats will need to be sure their ballots are received by the party by April 10.
The in-person voting that was scheduled for dozens of sites around the state was axed earlier today due to the coronavirus outbreak and the state restrictions in place that prohibit gatherings of 10 or more people, as well as the six-foot distance rule that is supposed to help prevent the virus from spreading.
The ballots were printed and mailed in February, so several candidates who have dropped will still appear on the ballot.
“Ranked choice voting provides us with an opportunity to address this issue without disenfranchising voters. Campaigns and candidates that have notified us in writing that they wish to have their names withdrawn will have their requests honored in the tabulation of votes. Votes cast on Alaska ballots for candidates who have withdrawn or suspended their campaigns will be considered votes for non-viable candidates. In this case, the voter’s next preference will be counted, until a valid vote is cast or the ballot is exhausted,” the party wrote in an explanation.
Withdrawn, but appearing on the Democrats’ ballot are:
The first death of an Alaskan who contracted the Wuhan coronavirus was announced today. The person died out of state, said Dr. Anne Zink, chief medical officer for the State of Alaska.
The person who died had been in Washington state for some time, acquired the virus there and died there. The person was older and had other health risk factors.
Another six cases were announced today: Juneau -1, Sterling-1, Fairbanks-2, Ketchikan-2. A total of 42 cases are known across the state.
Gov. Mike Dunleavy said he is preparing to announce ways the private sector is going to rise to help meet the need to create items needed to combat the pandemic: They’ll be making test swabs that are RDA approved, personal protective equipment like masks and gowns, and distilleries will start making hand sanitizer. The details about these efforts will be announced on Wednesday.
Dunleavy and Zink reemphasized the need for all Alaskans to take the advice of experts, and to stay out of public, stay at home, and do whatever they can to not be close to other people except those in their immediate household.
‘The cases we see now are of people who got the disease over a week ago,” Zink said.
The Municipal Clerk of Anchorage has announced that only one of six accessible voting centers will open as scheduled starting March 30 for the Anchorage Municipal Election. The hours are:
M-F, March 30 – April 6, 8:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m.
Tuesday, April 7, 7:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m.
Those with mail-in ballots will need to drop those ballots off at a ballot drop box at one of these locations.
The Clerk’s Office also is asking those who vote at home to not lick the adhesive on their ballot envelope, but to use alternate methods, such as a moist cloth or glue stick.
Voters may also send their ballots back by U.S. Postal Service. The stamp costs approximately 70 cents for this year’s two-page ballot, and it must be postmarked by April 7, 2020.
Assemblywoman Suzanne LaFrance gave Facebook advice to voters on how to game the Post Office, encouraging people to drop the ballot in the mail without postage, and shift the cost to the U.S. Postal Service.
Voters with questions about voting or the election may call the Voter Hotline at 907-243-8683. The Call Center Team can provide voters options to vote without risking their health, the health of Election Workers or our community.
HOMER CITY COUNCIL LEADS THE WAY, LIFTS THE BAG BAN
Homer City Council temporarily lifted the ban on single use bags at a meeting Monday night. The council passed a special ordinance that is in effect until Sept. 15, or whenever the current coronavirus state of emergency is lifted.
The plastic bag ban had just gone into effect in Homer on Jan. 1. It had been put in law by Proposition 1, a voter initiative that appeared on Homer’s 2019 General Election.
At Three Bears markets, the management has banned the cloth and fiber bags that shoppers have been bringing from home as a result of the bag bans in Wasilla, Palmer and in the Anchorage city limits. Three Bears says that for the safety of all, only unused plastic and paper bags are allowed to pack out groceries. Three Bears has stores in Wasilla, Palmer, Chugiak, Tok, and Kenai.
Wasilla’s bag ban has been in effect since July of 2018. Palmer has banned single-use bags since 2019.
Across the country, jurisdictions are suddenly doing an about-face on the bags that people bring with them into stores.
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu issued an emergency order over weekend banning the reusable shopping bags. Stores in the Live Free or Die State must now either provide disposable plastic or paper bags.
“Our grocery store workers are on the front lines of COVID-19, working around the clock to keep New Hampshire families fed,” said Gov. Sununu, a Republican. “With identified community transmission, it is important that shoppers keep their reusable bags at home given the potential risk to baggers, grocers and customers. This Emergency Order directs all grocers and retail stores in the state to temporarily transition to only use new paper or plastic grocery bags provided by stores as soon as feasibly possible.”
Maine’s Democrat Gov. Janet Mills announced last week that the state’s single-use bag ban, which was supposed to go into effect on April 22, has been delayed until next January.
In recent years, eight states have banned the use of the single-use bags. They include Hawaii, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Oregon and New York and New Hampshire. Both New York and California are hot spots for the virus’ spread.
Since Sept. 15 in Anchorage, retailers no longer are allowed to provide plastic bags to shoppers.
Instead, sellers are required to make paper bag available. By city ordinance, they are forced to charge for the paper bags at a minimum cost of 10 cents and a maximum cost of 50 cents. This fee was to prod shoppers into bringing their own bags from home.
Now, many are wondering if pathogens are hopping a ride on those bags, which go in and out of homes and stores.
The first four cases of community-spread coronavirus was announced by the State Department of Health and Social Services on Monday. The cases are in Anchorage.
The Alaska Supreme Court oral arguments for State Division of Elections vs. Recall Dunleavy Committee are scheduled for March 25 at 1:30 pm, and will be broadcast on KTOO’s Gavel Alaska, the Alaska Court System has confirmed.
Alaskans interested in following the proceedings are advised that the arguments will be made telephonically, but there will be a camera in the courtroom, live-streamed by KTOO/Gavel Alaska/360North. The justices will be visible, but the lawyers will not be visible.
The Supreme Court has limited access to the courtroom in Anchorage and is requiring the two parties participate by telephone due to the coronavirus outbreak.
This updates a story from last week on MRAK that indicated there was uncertainty about whether there would be a broadcast of the proceedings.
Gov. Mike Dunleavy stopped by and gave a pint of blood at Blood Bank of Alaska this morning. The blood bank was getting low on certain blood types and has put out the word for donors. 700 donors are needed each week to keep the blood supply in Alaska, providing it to to 21 hospitals across Alaska and to the military.
If interested in donating, call to schedule an appointment to ensure a limited wait time. 907-222-5630
