A Dittman Research Poll that was in the field from Oct. 4-8 in Alaska has the freshest forecasting of the Alaska congressional race, where the candidates for Nov. 8 include two Republicans, a Libertarian, and a Democrat incumbent.
Nick Begich, the Republican, has pulled ahead of former Gov. Sarah Palin and is within 3.4 points of Congresswoman Mary Peltola, who won the special general election in August to complete Congressman Don Young’s term. That puts Nick Begich within the margin of error of winning for this poll, in which Palin is eliminated in the second round, after Chris Bye, the Libertarian, who is the first eliminated.
For the final round of voting among survey participants, Peltola wins with 51.7%, and Nick Begich comes in second at 48.3 In the Round 3 result, Palin is eliminated in Round 2, with just 24.2%.
The results show that Nick Begich is still gaining momentum. During a nearly identical Sept. 6-14 poll by the Dittman Research group, it was Nick Begich who was eliminated in after Round 2, and Peltola bested Palin, 57.6% to 42.4%.
The latest poll shows the lowest numbers yet for Palin, who came in second in the special general election in August.
Under the new ranked choice voting, system, a candidate can win outright if he or she gets 50%+1 votes in the first round. If no candidate makes that threshold, then the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and that candidate’s voters get their second pick counted. The counting continues in rounds until two candidates remain. The one who has the most votes in that round of counting wins.
While it’s impossible to say why Peltola’s support has slumped, her position on Second Amendment, abortion, and her alignment with President Joe Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may have something to do with it. She has come out against oil development in the 10-02 Coastal Plain, Alaska oil and gas storehouse in the Arctic, and has voted to put more veterans on food stamps — all hardline Democrat positions that have begun to define her voting record, as opposed to her campaign promises.
Dittman, Alaska’s leading polling and survey firm, is not polling on behalf of any of the candidates in the House race.
