Dittman poll shows Nick Begich has pulled ahead of Palin

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A Dittman Research Poll that was in the field from Oct. 4-8 in Alaska has the freshest forecasting of the Alaska congressional race, where the candidates for Nov. 8 include two Republicans, a Libertarian, and a Democrat incumbent.

Nick Begich, the Republican, has pulled ahead of former Gov. Sarah Palin and is within 3.4 points of Congresswoman Mary Peltola, who won the special general election in August to complete Congressman Don Young’s term. That puts Nick Begich within the margin of error of winning for this poll, in which Palin is eliminated in the second round, after Chris Bye, the Libertarian, who is the first eliminated.

For the final round of voting among survey participants, Peltola wins with 51.7%, and Nick Begich comes in second at 48.3 In the Round 3 result, Palin is eliminated in Round 2, with just 24.2%.

The results show that Nick Begich is still gaining momentum. During a nearly identical Sept. 6-14 poll by the Dittman Research group, it was Nick Begich who was eliminated in after Round 2, and Peltola bested Palin, 57.6% to 42.4%.

The latest poll shows the lowest numbers yet for Palin, who came in second in the special general election in August.

Under the new ranked choice voting, system, a candidate can win outright if he or she gets 50%+1 votes in the first round. If no candidate makes that threshold, then the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and that candidate’s voters get their second pick counted. The counting continues in rounds until two candidates remain. The one who has the most votes in that round of counting wins.

While it’s impossible to say why Peltola’s support has slumped, her position on Second Amendment, abortion, and her alignment with President Joe Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may have something to do with it. She has come out against oil development in the 10-02 Coastal Plain, Alaska oil and gas storehouse in the Arctic, and has voted to put more veterans on food stamps — all hardline Democrat positions that have begun to define her voting record, as opposed to her campaign promises.

Dittman, Alaska’s leading polling and survey firm, is not polling on behalf of any of the candidates in the House race.

27 COMMENTS

    • Steve A,

      You are correct. I have lived here my whole life and I have noticed that Anchorage (Alaska) has declined rapidly.

  1. Now Sarah’s NYC trip makes sense.

    She wasn’t coronated as she expected. So she’s leaving us peasants for more lucrative grounds.

    Cue the Palinheads denying reality in 3…2…1..

  2. Sarah really doesn’t give a rat’s behind if she wins or loses. She just wants her star power name back in her older age. Like a movie starlet who’s looks are fading, she wants one more brush with stardom. That’s why she is dating a famous retired hockey player. Sarah should be at home in Alaska raising a special needs child that she brought into the world while governor. Instead, she barely even visits Alaska anymore. Sarah has not grown up into adulthood. And I hope all you adults out there will join me and my family and vote for Nick Begich III.

  3. The best poll (and hopefully, a wake up call) was the primary election- that poll had the largest sample size. If the Begich voters had picked Palin over the socialist Democrat in their second ranking, we would not have a socialist Democrat in the temporary slot.

    What has changed? More Alaskans are waking up to what is pointed out in this article- Peltola will ban firearms, she likes Biden and Pelosi, and she will work to continue the destruction of the United States economy.

    Its too bad the Berkowitz loving Begich has not directed his campaign ads against Peltola- like he does against Palin. Its almost like he wants the Democrat to win…

    • I agree M. Also most pollsters only poll likely Republican and Democrat voters. Sarah’s real strength is in the Independent, non partisan voters—60%— of all voters. That’s why the pollsters got the 2016 election wrong. They didn’t poll the Tea Party people. Actually they refused to be polled. Sarah has won three times so far. Nick and Sarah both went on the Mike Porcaro show, and asked their voters to Rank the Red. That means Sarah gets those 26,000 Nick votes that went to Mary Peltola.

    • Peltola has stated that her view of gun rights is for food security,aka hunting. Certainly it is hunting for her real constituents who are “rural”residents. She will push for native subsitence on federal lands.

      Book it!

      She won’t represent ALL Alaskans.

    • Begich has traveled around the entire state meeting voters, and also urging them to “rank the red”.
      Sarah on the other hand, not only bragged about not ranking the red in August, refusing to vote Begich second behind herself, but posted proof of it on social media.
      To give her credit, she has FINALLY asked her supporters to rank the red in November.

    • Didn’t the Queen herself rank Mary 2nd? After telling her followers to vote for her only?

      If she wouldn’t rank red, why does she deserve others to do it to benefit her?

    • If you understand how RCV works you would understand there is NO need for vote-splitting as long as the people don’t stubbornly refuse to vote for the “other” Republican. Outlets like MRA should be candidly and objectively explaining this system to their readers instead of constantly attacking it and acting like it is a rigged system. It’s not, but the only accomplishment in convincing people that it is will be getting them to stay home.

      • AK Pilot – before the primary and special general, we ran a six-part series on this. You can look it up by using the search function with key words “ask Bernadette” and all of the stories will com up for you. There have been numerous other articles that we have shared with readers. Take a closer look and welcome to Must Read Alaska’s search function. – sd

      • “If you understand how RCV works you would” wonder how it benefits the voter.

        If you were a candidate that at least marginally sucked then yeah, you might be a proponent.

  4. Howdy Tim. She was the first one to do so on the Mike Porcaro show, Nick was next. She explained her earlier reason for not ranking the Red, but admitted that it is the right thing to do now. Both Canidates presented themselves well. Nick prospered from RCV, in that he would have been eliminated in June under old rules, you can’t blame Sarah for being Not Happy that he is still around. He has run a good race, his family’s experience has helped him alot. November will be like the OKAY CORRAL.

    • So, as usual, her “convictions” are as flexible as they need to be. She is about as reliable as Joe Biden’s memory.

      You may harp all you want about “old rules”. We play the hand we are dealt.

      Queen is unhappy she has not been coronated. So much so she left the state instead of campaigning.

      • Masked Avenger,
        Hold the phone, the “Queen”, aka Sarah got to go to a Rangers Hockey game with her legend boy friend and was on a National News program, so she got back into the big time. She answered questions about oil production in Alaska, ( her figures may have been wrong) and spoke about Tulsi Gabbard. So, Sarah is doing what Sarah will do! Promoting Sarah!

        Disclaimer: I will still vote for Sarah as my #2. A self promoting, MAGA bleating Sarah is better than a commie gun grabbing, welfare plantation DEMOCRAT. I hope to hell the Palin People will do likewise.
        RANK THE RED

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