The founder of the Trafalgar Group polling firm says predicting the outcomes of races in the midterm elections is harder now that President Joe Biden has called supporters of former President Donald Trump as adherents to “semi-fascism.”
That pollster’s data-driven remark to The Washington Times is showing up anecdotally in Alaska. Three moderate Republicans have told Must Read Alaska that they are considering changing their party registration out of fear of retaliation by the Biden Administration or the federal government. Others have reported being reluctant to put stickers on their cars that show support for Republican candidates.
Biden last month characterized Republicans as a threat to democracy and said Republicans supporting Trump subscribe to “semi-fascism.” Robert Cahaly, who accurately predicted Trump’s win in 2016, said that it’s already a challenge to get Republicans to answer political polls.
Cahaly told The Washington Times that “public perception of just how far Democrats and government institutions such as the FBI will go to smear their political opponents in the wake of Biden’s escalating campaign rhetoric has worsened the challenge.”
“If you think, for example, being called a deplorable and being worried about being canceled make you less likely to tell people what side your on, imagine what suggesting that because you have a Republican sticker on your car or a sign in your yard that now your a threat to national security,” he told The Washington Times.
Cahaly is senior strategist and pollster of the Atlanta-based Trafalgar Group who bet the future of his company on his team’s unorthodox polling methodology. When asked by national reporters if he would “stand by his polling results” showing a clear 300+ Trump victory, effectively rejecting the herd mentality of the polling industry that had predicted a significant Hillary Clinton electoral win, he didn’t back down.
“On Wednesday I’m either going to be the guy who got it right, or nobody is going to listen to me anymore,” he told reporters two days before the November presidential election in 2016.