The founder of the Trafalgar Group polling firm says predicting the outcomes of races in the midterm elections is harder now that President Joe Biden has called supporters of former President Donald Trump as adherents to “semi-fascism.”
That pollster’s data-driven remark to The Washington Times is showing up anecdotally in Alaska. Three moderate Republicans have told Must Read Alaska that they are considering changing their party registration out of fear of retaliation by the Biden Administration or the federal government. Others have reported being reluctant to put stickers on their cars that show support for Republican candidates.
Biden last month characterized Republicans as a threat to democracy and said Republicans supporting Trump subscribe to “semi-fascism.” Robert Cahaly, who accurately predicted Trump’s win in 2016, said that it’s already a challenge to get Republicans to answer political polls.
Cahaly told The Washington Times that “public perception of just how far Democrats and government institutions such as the FBI will go to smear their political opponents in the wake of Biden’s escalating campaign rhetoric has worsened the challenge.”
“If you think, for example, being called a deplorable and being worried about being canceled make you less likely to tell people what side your on, imagine what suggesting that because you have a Republican sticker on your car or a sign in your yard that now your a threat to national security,” he told The Washington Times.
Cahaly is senior strategist and pollster of the Atlanta-based Trafalgar Group who bet the future of his company on his team’s unorthodox polling methodology. When asked by national reporters if he would “stand by his polling results” showing a clear 300+ Trump victory, effectively rejecting the herd mentality of the polling industry that had predicted a significant Hillary Clinton electoral win, he didn’t back down.
“On Wednesday I’m either going to be the guy who got it right, or nobody is going to listen to me anymore,” he told reporters two days before the November presidential election in 2016.
The Washington Times story is at this link.
With the DOJ and the FBI being a weaponized arm of the democrat party who wouldn’t keep their head down.
Gee… I wonder if that is why Begich, the candidate that got a lot of Democrat votes, shows as beating Peltola, but only if Palin drops out?
Could be because they are afraid of supporting a Trump endorsed candidate, or maybe they are afraid of backlash at work and social events by anyone leaning left.
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Perhaps the automatic/home team +3 points the Dems always seem to get should be boosted to +5 or more in the polls.
Where are you getting such information that so many democrats voted for Begich? Please share.
Look at the results from the Election.
While I am sure a percentage of the Begich voters that ranked Petola as second were anti-Palin voters, it does not explain the large number. About the only explanation that fits is a measurable number of Democrats were voting Begich. Either because they did not have enough energy for Petola to rank her first, or because they were afraid Petola would not get better than 50%, and they wanted to get the Republican closest to the center elected.
CBMTTeek… All of the Democrats voted Mary as their # 1, got that? 100% of them. Attempting to blame enlightened voters for your candidates failings isn’t a good strategy.
Begich voters are young, smart, educated independents and Old Wise Conservatives who are Republicans or usually vote for the most Conservative Candidate.
Sarah isn’t a Conservative, she is a screecher who thoughtlessly repeats the same sound track over and over again. You should be asking yourself why it is that so many found voting for Sarah to be repugnant? I assert that it isn’t about Trump, the Orange Man stands or falls on his own merit. It is all about the Sarah here. Perhaps you like Bill Walker? I don’t like his policy or how he governed, Sarah did, she endorsed Billy.
One of many really, really bad decisions she has made. (a little Trump lingo there)
I do not believe Sarah voters are Stupid, I do believe however voting Sarah as your #1 choice is really DUMB.
BTW, what the hell does your handle stand for? Ever consider using your real name?
Votes are secret ….. the ballots don’t have names on them
I registered as a Dem many years ago & never changed, but I haven’t voted for a Dem since Reagan.
Our votes are ours alone (except perhaps mail in votes – I don’t trust them)
I have never before adorned my pickup or my yard with political stickers and placards. This story changes things for me. I am a threat to no one, so long as no one is a threat to me.
This is a good sign.
Democrats are clearly petrified that those on the right are waking up and will start utilizing government power to actively fight back. This goes beyond just using the DOJ/IRS/FBI to arrest political opponents.
Some possible examples:
COVID:
Left: Force vaccines for all, private and government must fire anyone that doesn’t comply. (Peltola)
‘Conservative’: No gov’t mandate, but the private sector can invade your privacy if it wants. (Begich)
Right: Outright ban on vaccine mandates – including corporate ones. (Palin)
Automobile Regulation:
Left: Ban gasoline automobiles. Mass transit or EVs now mandatory.
‘Conservative’: Free choice for all – until Corp USA decides its more efficient to apply California’s mandate nationwide.
Right: Ban EVs outright in cold climate/rural states like Alaska and Montana on the grounds that short range and poor performance in cold temperatures make them an actual safety risk. (Imagine driving to Fairbanks in December, -45F, and the battery craps out 45 miles earlier than the computer predicted because you wanted to run the heater.) Take a stick to corporations that want to force rural America into vehicles that only function properly in big cities.
I owned a plug-in hybrid when I lived in the South (before moving to AK). In the Summer I could get to work and back on battery power (even running the A/C). On those odd cold mornings we’d get in December/January, I could not run the heater without draining the battery and having the ICE kick on.
I own an F-150 up here.
It’s a scam.
I’m not afraid of conservatives using government power. I’m afraid of conservatives using guns to get their way.
You better be, Lucie.
I like your attitude. I at first felt like Begich and that putting bans on bans or mandates seems hypocritical. But now I see how dangerous mandates really are. I don’t think any mandates should exist that involve personal health. That means I think public schools and immigration should remove all of their vaccine mandates even though I believe many vaccines are good ones. The medical industry has proven they aren’t good at many things, ethics being one of them as they felt totalitarianism is sometimes justified whenever they get steered in that direction because the public doesn’t want to do what the corrupt fda and big pharma want it to do, and there should be restrictions on what the medical industry can guilt the government or corporations to mandate.
After all the heart of this nation is restricting the government, not giving freedom to people. Nobody “gives” freedom. We all have it until it is taken away. The government isn’t responsible for dispensing and guaranteeing what is mine as soon as I’m born. It’s not the government’s possession. It’s mine and yours. And I can be mandated to drive the speed limit to restrict that freedom but I can’t be mandated to have the government drive my car and force me to go only when and where they decide because I could decide to go to the liquor store and I could drink the liquor in my car and kill somebody. “I should have the ‘guaranteed’ freedom to be safe when I go outside. You believe in speed limits right?” is really just a rationalization to circumvent the spirit of the constitution that is the foundation of this country that people are risking their lives to get into.
Sure Suzanne. Trump loving white Christian nationalist chaos merchants are victims. Geez.
I’ll answer poll questions until I don’t get one that seems like it is pushing me into a corner. Most recent one was:
If you ever have an occasion when you don’t vote it usually is because:
You couldn’t get time off of work.
It was too inconvenient.
It took too long.
There wasn’t a polling place close enough to your residents.
So essentially if I ever don’t vote, it has to be somebody else’s fault. A liberal wrote that question.
The media runs all of the polls and that’s why I don’t answer them.
Both sides have a hard time with the concept sometimes not voting is a vote. We saw it here with the second choice of many Republicans.
Votes are earned, not owed. Not voting for either candidate is a clear vote against all candidates on offer.
I still think most people who don’t vote are lazy. But I do accept the reality many who don’t vote are appalled by the choices and vote not to vote.
If you’re that scared of the government that you won’t admit you support conservative ideals, you are already in deep trouble.
No, Steve — then this NATION is already in deep trouble.
As anyone with half a brain, and who is not completely divorced from reality, can see and knows already (radical leftist extremists being automatically excluded here due to the stated criteria).
Polls are for ‘Exotic Dancers ‘. Nothing more.
Biden is a sick, old, demented, illegitimate president. A criminal getting kick-backs from foreign governments. Father to a terribly dysfunctional family. A philanderer on the order of Bill Clinton. A lying thief of a man, if you want to call him a man. An ugly Democrat. How did we end up with such a despicable character?
Our beautiful country has turned rotten and sick
under Joe Biden.
Let’s Go, Brandon!
Biden did not characterize republicans as a threat to democracy. He characterized Trump as a threat to democracy, which pretty much accurately describes Trump. He refused to concede an election he clearly lost, making up ridiculous claims about voter fraud with absolutely no credible evidence. He conspired to persuade state legislatures in states he lost to ignore the voters and cast their electoral votes for him. He called the Secretary of State of Georgia and asked him to “find” 11,000 votes. He incited a riot that led to the attack on the Capitol on January 6 and then did nothing to stop it. So I think Biden’s description of Trump, and those republicans who still support him, was spot on.
But to be clear, not all Republicans support Trump, and many have called him out for the wannabe dictator that he is. If you support Trump and his preposterous claims, then I think it’s fair to say you support facism, because Donald Trump’s behavior is a pretty clear example of what fascist dictators do,
You are completely, and thoroughly, mixed-up in your head. More Trump Derangement Syndrome. Get therapy. Lots of it.
Turn off the tv and actually seek out the evidence and what audits found from a source that isn’t WaPo, NYT, Newsweek or Yahoo or an Orwellian “FactChecker”. You might learn something. But from the sounds of your rant, probably not. But sure, the democrats that never accept a loss and actually fabricate evidence and get caught doing it and then muzzle the media and prevent republicans from stating their disputes couldn’t possibly be the “semi-fascists”. Maybe just read 1984.
By the way, when Georgia did an audit, they “found votes” for Trump. Thousands actually. Just not enough. But sure, muzzle their objections, sue them for defamation, and call them fascists.
Gawd Justin. And you probably believe in a virgin birth.
Lucinda, the lack of critical and independent thinking (the only real kind of thinking), and the mindless groupthink and ‘running with the herd’, that is routinely displayed by you radical leftist extremists never ceases to amaze and sadden me.
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You do realize, don’t you, that you have NEVER shown any evidence here of exercising the least bit of original and independent thinking? Everything that you have ever spouted here could have been (and realistically, was) lifted verbatim from the talking points of CNN and/or MSNBC. You are simply a parrot.
I cooperate with pollsters until they say “for the purpose of quality assurance we may record this call”
Then I tell them – “you can’t record me, I don’t want to be recorded” – and they hang up.
So they never get this conservatives opinion & I get called all the time
A long long time ago I was required to take (essentially) PR 101 as a college elective. Opened my eyes to how these things work.
It’s all in how you ask the question and who you ask it to. The goal I s never to gauge opinion. It’s how to shape opinion to meet the pollsters needs.
As a registered Republican since 1983 in Alaska I have no qualms about supporting Alaskans running for office that protect the Alaska Constitution and the right to privacy over MAGA conservatives. The carpetbagger Tshibaka’s will only be a bad memory after Kelly loses and they leave Alaska
Alaska Constitution and right to privacy is being threatened by MAGA conservatives? Not sure how you get that point of view. MAGA conservatives want to preserve both things. Are you referring to the constitutional convention because MAGA conservatives want to get rid of dark money?
Yeah, Frankly Rancid, we believe that you are a Republican.
And I am the Easter Bunny.
I never talk to pollsters.
Most of these polls are push polls designed to get the answers they desire. I like to confuse them! Sample conversation:
What party do you affiliate as? – my answer- Democrat. In reality Independent
Are you married or single – my answer? – single. In reality Married.
Is Joe Biden doing a good job as President? – Yes – In reality worst President in the history of the USA!
What is your age? – 26 – in reality pushing 70
What is the most pressing issue for you – LGQBT rights – in reality the economy stupid!
This can go on & on until the pollster has had his fill of his wildest dreams of Democrat victory in November. Actually in November they will be scratching their heads about how their polls were so wrong when reality crashes into them like a rutting bull moose on a narrow trail! Don’t play their game, create your own.
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