Polling: Alan Gross quickly tested his popularity before filing for Congress at end of March

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Change Research, a San Francisco polling firm, helped candidate Alan Gross test his mettle before he filed for office for the Alaska congressional seat now vacant upon the March 18 death of Congressman Don Young.

In a poll conducted for Democratic Party in late March, Gross’ name was tested against others to see if he could be successful. Gross didn’t show any interest in the congressional race until Young’s death, but then had a poll in the field right away, March 25-29, asking 755 Alaskans their views on his candidacy, as well as others.

In a race that had Gross vs. the D.C. lobbyists’ favorite Josh Revak, Gross pulled 35% and Revak pulled 34%. When it was Gross vs. Sarah Palin, it was nearly split, at Gross 40% and Palin 42%.

When Gross’ name was pitted against Palin, Revak and State Sen. Lora Reinbold, the result was Gross 33%, Palin 30%, Revak 9% and Reinbold 8%.

In a Must Read Alaska poll commissioned in April found that, among 955 likely voters, the result would be:

  • Sarah Palin-R – 31%
  • Al Gross-D – 26%
  • Nick Begich-R – 21%
  • Chris Constant-D – 7%
  • Josh Revak-R – 3%
  • Tara Sweeney-R – 2%
  • Other candidate 4%
  • Undecided 6%

Remington Research Group typically polls for Republicans, while Change Research polls for Democrats. Al Gross flies under the “independent” label but is a nominal independent, who aligns with Democrats on all issues.

Change Research’s poll was for 314 Action, a political action committee for the Democratic Party and reached 728 likely voters. The breakdown of demographics for that poll are not known. The company is based in the San Francisco Bay Area, formed in July 2017 by Mike Greenfield, a former data expert at PayPal and LinkedIn, and Pat Reilly, a Democratic Party campaign operative. Change Research is the official pollster of Crooked Media’s Pod Save America and KQED, the most-listened-to public radio station in the US, according to the company website.

The special election primary will occur on June 11, 2022. Ballots will be in the mail from the Division of Election on April 27, and there are 48 names on the ballot, making polling extremely challenging for this race. The special general election Aug. 16, 2022, and the winner will be the temporary congressional representative for Alaska until the regular election process is completed in November and the new representative is sworn in in January.

Gross, fresh off the campaign trail from 2020 has evidently caught campaign fever. After he lost his race against Sen. Dan Sullivan in 2020, the Democrats contracted with Change Research and tested Gross’ chances against Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Kelly Tshibaka, with the idea that he might jump into that race in 2022. But the numbers were not favorable. In a three-way race with Murkowski and Tshibaka, Gross drew the last straw with 25% of the vote, handing the win to Tshibaka at 39% and leaving Murkowski with just 19% of the vote. That’s not something the Democrats could support, and Gross demurred from signing up as a spoiler.

He distinguished himself as a true liberal in 2020 with support from major progressive organizations such as the anti-Republican Lincoln Project, which may hold off getting involved in the 2022 special election for the temporary congressional seat until it sees which of the 48 candidates on the ballot are moving forward. If Gross moves to the special general election ballot, the Lincoln Project will likely be the attack dog that goes after Sarah Palin, just as the group went after President Donald Trump, Sen. Dan Sullivan, and other Republicans in 2020.

26 COMMENTS

  1. What has happened to this state where this clown gets even more than 2% approval??? Look around you, do you like what you see? Do you want more of this? Keep voting for the Al Gross and Lisa Murkowski types and that’s what you’ll get.

  2. Al Gross should be barred from running for any political office in Alaska until he proves he is a full-time Alaskan resident? How many permanent fund dividends has he applied for and received in the last five years? You can fool some of the people some of the time, however you can’t fool true conservatives. Especially if you associate yourself with dark money, like the Lincoln project. This includes rigged surveys that attempt to sway public opinion. Time to sing, “This little light of mine, I’m gonna let is shine.” Time to shine light on all of the evil worldwide! Cabal puppets must pay for their crimes against humanity.

    • You don’t have to be an Alaska resident to run for office which seems odd but that’s the law. If Gross were elected – long shot – he’d have to establish residency which would be easy to do. He’s probably already rented an apartment somewhere just in case.

  3. Al Gross is not the top Democratic candidate. He made the strategic decision to not file as a Democrat. He registered and filed as a nonpartisan candidate. Which may reflect how damaged the Democrat Party is in his view.
    But it also means voters not only have to find him, they have to walk in to the voting booth looking to vote, not for a Democrat, but for a nonpartisan.
    Sorry, AL, but the wave is building Republican, not nonpartisan. I don’t think the polling reflects how weak a position this puts AL in the 48 way race!
    My call: top 4 = all R. But that’s another article I owe MRAK! Ha.

  4. Kathy Reimer wasn’t listed as a candidate running against Gross in any of the polls above and yet Ms Reimer kicked Allen’s Butt in the Petersburg Hospital Board election. He came in fourth in a field of 5 candidates while Ms Reimer posted #1!
    Do you think that maybe these polls are really only catering to a well financed candidate’s ego?

  5. The bear doctor is quickly becoming my favorite also-ran has been Alaskan candidate, why this guy would subject himself to repeated and obvious failure is amusing. I wonder if during this election cycle he will claim he caught a king salmon that his buddy actually caught?

  6. He should ask for his money back, they lied to him. The last time he ran all of my Dem friends were so annoyed with his commercials that they said they wouldn’t vote for him for that reason alone. That makes me ask, who would vote for him except people in Juneau who know him? This is a big state Al. Does he honestly think he has a chance over Nick and Sarah?

    • Against Sarah, he probably will win. I know a lot of people who absolutely hate Sarah. I’m just gonna stop ranking candidates after Nick Begich.

  7. Remember the polls that predicted Hillary Clinton had a 90% plus probability of winning the Presidency over Trump? Well those same fraudsters are still peddling their snake oil. Al Gross as a frontrunner? – I don’t think so!

  8. Yuck, so many awful candidates, especially nutty Sarah and the bear doctor. I think I’ll just vote for Nick and then leave the rest of the Rank Choice ballot empty. No way can I vote for either Gross or Palin.

  9. It’s easy to see how the poll was taken. Some lefty in SF called a bunch of people living in downtown Juneau. They got very favorable results.

  10. June 11 election will be all about name recognition since there is little time for an actual campaign. My bet is:

    1. Sarah
    2. Begich III
    3. Gross

    The real action will be for 4 to move on to the special general in August. I have it:

    4. Sweeney
    5. Revak
    6. Lowenfels
    7. Halcro

    But —

    Don’t count out Santa Claus!

  11. Is he going to use that creepy picture again for his campaign? I hope so! And his radio ads during his failed senatorial campaign were so brutally aggressive that I had to stop listening to the radio.

  12. I’ll vote for Gross before I vote for Murkowski. He would be gone in six years while Murkowski will stay until this state is completely ruined.

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