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Alaska case at Supreme Court to test public employee right to not pay union membership dues

GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
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Alaska case at Supreme Court to test public employee right to not pay union membership dues

By OLIVIA JOHNSTON | THE CENTER SQUARE

A case pending before the Supreme Court of the United States has the potential to enhance the First Amendment rights of workers from being forced to subsidize union speech they may disagree with.

The case is Alaska v. Alaska State Employees Association and several states have already filed amicus briefs in support of workers. Among those who joined an amicus brief are Idaho, Kansas, Alabama and Texas, as well as others.

Why is a case out of Alaska drawing so much attention from other states, and how could it impact you? The case stands for a cause the Mountain States Policy Center firmly believes in – government transparency and freedom of choice as a public employee. It could have a nationwide impact for all public employees.

In 2018, SCOTUS held that public employees forced to subsidize a union, even if they “choose not to join and strongly object to the positions the union takes in collective bargaining and related activities,” is unconstitutional. Such an “arrangement violates the free speech rights of nonmembers by compelling them to subsidize private speech on matters of substantial public concern.” This decision from Janus could be strengthened by the Alaska State Employees case should SCOTUS accept and hear it.

Alaska State Employees seeks to resolve if affirmative consent must first be required before the Alaska state government can legally withhold from public employee paychecks for union causes within the scope of the First Amendment of the United States Constitution. There are currently two kinds of “fees” charged by public employee unions in Alaska: membership dues and agency fees, with agency fees being required for both union and non-union employees working in the public sector. SCOTUS addressed both of these types of fee categories in Janus, and determined it is unconstitutional to withhold union agency fees from public employees who do not agree with or have a desire to join a specific union.

The dispute at the center of the Alaska State Employees case is whether the ruling in Janus extends to membership dues as well. The Alaska Attorney General argues that it does; the Alaska State Employee Association argues that it does not.

The dispute arose as a result of Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor implementing aggressive initiatives to inform employees of their workplace rights once he took office. One of those initiatives includes requiring employee consent to union dues being withdrawn from their paychecks. Under Taylor’s guidelines, employees would have to provide “clear and compelling evidence” of consenting to union dues before they could be withheld from compensation. Paychecks could no longer support any union purposes without the employee intending their money to do so.

The state of Alaska initiative intends all Alaskan workers to be informed of each withholding line on their paychecks. Several states (including Idaho) have filed amicus briefs in Alaska State Employees in support of AG Taylor’s initiative regarding union dues. In other words, these states are also asking SCOTUS to recognize public employees’ right to consent to charges for governmental union dues.

SCOTUS’s ruling in Janus logically leads to a conclusion that public workers’ income cannot subsidize a private matter on issues of substantial public concern without voluntarily waiving their First Amendment right. To voluntarily waive a fundamental right demands individual rights have been thoroughly communicated and understood. The First Amendment protects both the freedom to speak as well as the freedom to refrain from speaking. The state of Alaska urges the Supreme Court to reaffirm Janus which equally supports employees who wish to support union causes and those who “strongly object to the positions the union takes” as the court stated in 2018.

Mountain States Policy Center firmly agrees with those asking SCOTUS to fully clarify the First Amendment rights of workers to not be forced to provide financial support to union causes or membership without direct consent first. We’ll soon know if the U.S. Supreme Court agrees.

Olivia Johnston is a contributor to Mountain States Policy Center, an independent research organization based in Idaho, Montana, Eastern Washington and Wyoming. Online at mountainstatespolicy.org. She is currently a law student at the University of Idaho College of Law.

Ship with tons of lithium batteries remains holed up in Alaska bay as storm rages

Suzanne Downing
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Ship with tons of lithium batteries remains holed up in Alaska bay as storm rages

As a major winter gale spirals across the Gulf of Alaska, a freighter carrying over 800 metric tons of lithium batteries is remaining anchored in the shelter of Broad Bay.

The M/V Genius Star XI remains stable, anchored near Dutch Harbor, the Coast Guard reports. No current fires are detectable in the holds after a fire broke out last week as the ship crossed the Pacific from Asia to its destination of San Diego.

Breaking: Cargo ship laden with lithium batteries catches fire, diverted to Dutch Harbor

Assessment teams continue to conduct air monitoring on-site and ashore. Air quality remains normal and there is no indication of heat in or around the cargo holds, the Coast Guard said in a statement.

“The Unified Command remains committed to conducting this response safely and effectively,” said Capt. Chris Culpepper, captain of the port. “Our top priority continues to be the safety of the local community, the Genius Star XI and her crew, and our response personnel. We have dedicated teams of experts who continue to monitor air quality aboard the ship and ashore, including community-based air monitoring on shore in Dutch Harbor.”

The vessel remains on a prepositioned mooring buoy for weather avoidance based on a recommendation from an Alaska Marine Pilot and the Salvage Master aboard the vessel. To comply with the ongoing Captain of the Port Order, the vessel will keep its pilothouse manned, engines warm, and have a tug standing by to respond if the situation changes.  

Response resources and technical experts continue to be mobilized to the incident site but extreme weather in the vicinity of Dutch Harbor has resulted in flight delays. Members of the salvage team will remain onboard with the crew throughout the extreme weather to monitor the situation and respond as needed.  

A one-mile safety zone around the vessel remains in place. Mariners who wish to enter that zone must request permission on VHF Channel 16.   

The Unified Command, consisting of the Coast Guard Captain of the Port, Gallagher Marine Systems, and the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, continues to work closely to coordinate response efforts on this incident.    

An investigation into the cause will take place once response efforts are complete.   

Scott Ogan: Top 10 ‘left fork-in-the-road’ policy proposals

SENIOR CONTRIBUTOR
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Scott Ogan: Top 10 ‘left fork-in-the-road’ policy proposals

By SCOTT OGAN

It has become painfully self-evident to many Americans that the press and digital media have been weaponized by people on both sides of the aisle. A true free press must thrive for our republic to survive. Politicos of all persuasions should not attempt to leverage the objectivity of the free press. We are blessed to be able to settle our differences with words, not bullets, which is not true in other places in the world.  

In keeping with my theme of Alaska being at a fork in the road, I have picked Ogan’s Top 10 bills that represent the dangers of Alaska taking the “left fork.” 

This is not representative of every member of the legislature, and there are many more examples. However, it generally represents the “left fork’s” policy vision for Alaska’s future.

When I was first elected in 1996, Rep. Al Vezey sat me down and said, “Sometimes, the most important thing we do down here is nothing.” I was stunned! I now know that he astutely explained it was intentionally designed that way, to prevent rapid and sudden swings in policy.

That is exactly why who is in the majority matters. When one chairs a committee, it’s a lot easier to stop things from happening than it is to make something happen. As the policy pendulum swings from side to side with each election, this keeps some stability in our political system. That is also why, even with our robust internal differences, Republicans should honor the voter’s intent when they elect a Republican majority. 

Below are Ogan’s Top 10 “left fork” bills. I’ve let the sponsor’s own words or bill language speak for them, but after each bill I’ve added my short analysis. Please note that I welcome readers’ feedback of these bills in the comments below. Please keep it on topic and without personal attack so your comments will get posted. Kindly represent your views respectfully if you contact a legislator’s office. Name-calling and personal attacks only serve to marginalize your effectiveness. 

Ogan’s Top 10 “Left Fork-in-the-Road” Policy Proposals:

10. HB 153, Oil and Gas Property Tax; Rep. Cliff Groh, D Anchorage: 

“Alaska’s reliance on savings accounts to fill budget deficits is no longer sustainable without risking the future of the Permanent Fund. We need new revenues, and changing the oil and property tax is one way to raise new revenues in a predictable fashion.”  

My HB 153 analysis:

Alaska is a mature oil province with declining production. The state may also be facing Cook Inlet natural gas and electrical grid power shortages. Add an openly hostile federal bureaucracy: This measure equates to the possible importation of very expensive Liquified Natural Gas into Alaska causing significant increases in electrical and heating costs.  Are California-type electrical brownouts in our future?  Rep. Groh’s number is 800-689-4998.

9. HB 184 Short Term Rental Unit Registry; Rep. Andrew Gray, D-Anchorage:

“Sec. 34.90.040. Limitation on number of short-term rental units. An operator may register and operate only one short-term rental unit at a time under this chapter.”  

My HB 184 analysis:

This measure is at best an extreme regulatory taking – at worst, violates bedrock free market and 14th Amendment due process principles. This bill must make Rep. Gray the darling of the Democratic Socialist Party. Rep. Gray’s number is 866-465-4940.

8. HB 46 Child Care Providers – Collective Bargaining; Rep. Zack Fields, D Anchorage:

“HB 46 would empower our small business childcare providers to negotiate with the state to improve wages, working conditions, and training.”  

My HB 46 analysis:

Forces more single-parent families to seek public assistance by raising childcare costs significantly.  This bill also empowers submission and dependency on government entitlements. What parents don’t get forced out of the workplace will suffer even more under Bidenomics.  Rep. Fields’ number is 888-465-2647.

7. HB 156, Income Tax, Rep. Alyse Galvin, Not Affiliated-Anchorage:

“Nobody wants to implement a tax on Alaskans, but we are out of time and out of options. Through a broad-based tax, Alaskans will now have a direct stake in the state government spending responsibly.”  

My HB 156 analysis:

Well, somebody wants to raise taxes and it’s the very personable Rep. Galvin. I respectfully recommend that the representative look at the “options” Sen. Mike Shower and Rep. Ben Carpenter have proposed on a sustainable, comprehensive approach. Also, kindly consider the truth in advertising and drop the “Not Affiliated” label; you are very much affiliated with the “left fork” Democrat policy. Rep. Galvin’s number is 800-922-3875.

6. HB  43, Conversion Therapy Ban, Rep. Andi Story, D-Juneau: 

“HB 43 would prohibit physicians, physician assistants, psychiatrists, psychologists, psychological associates, and other “practitioners of the healing arts” licensed by the state from treating a person under the age of 18, as well as vulnerable adults, with a therapy or regimen that seeks to change their sexual orientation or gender identity. Nothing in the legislation affects any individual’s expressive speech, tenets, or practices outside of that context.” 

My HB 43 analysis: 

A wolf in sheep’s wool? If this bill included banning LBGTQ conversion pressure by the education community in our public schools, and academia in our universities, we would have a level playing field.  For good measure, throw in conversion and grooming attempts with drag queen story hours in our libraries. The disclaimer in the sponsor statement about free speech, tenants, or practices is a red flag. 

In the sponsor statement, Rep. Story quotes a San Francisco State University study about high suicide rates associated with “conversion therapy” from LBGTQ to strait.  One canreasonably argue that all the gender confusion now embedded in our schools may be the root source of these high suicide rates. The sponsor’s intent is to ban a parent’s ability to seek professional help when their child has a gender crisis. Rep. Story’s number is 800-968-6744. Please be thoughtfully restrained if you call. 

5. SB 52, Base Student Allocation Increase; Senate Education Committee, (Sen. Loki Tobin, Chair, D-Anchorage): 

“In recent years, flat funding and inflation have degraded Alaska’s vital system of public education. Without additional funding, Alaska will see increasingly large class sizes and continued teacher and staff attrition.” 

My SB52 analysis:

Senator Shower crunched the numbers last session on this same issue. Teachers (and ultimately students) have been getting the short stick with every increase. Plus, the multipliers in the formula actually cost more than represented. Kindly explain why more money assumes better education outcomes when no accountability measures are included?  Sen. Tobin’s number is 888-330-3704

4. SB 88, Restore Defined Benefits; Sen. Cathy Giessel, R-Anchorage: 

“SB 88 addresses Alaska’s workforce challenges with recruitment and retention head-on through establishing a new defined benefit retirement plan for police officers and firefighters, teachers, and all other public employees. Recruitment and retention are essential aspects of any successful organization and investing in our public service employees should be a top priority.”

My SB 88 analysis:

Sen. Bert Stedman was the prime advocate of eliminating defined benefits (and if memory serves me, it was an unfunded unsustainable liability then, and remains an unfunded liability today). Is Sen. Giessel doing the same thing and expecting a different result? Sen. Giessel’s number is 800-892-4843.

3. HB 90, Cap Dividend at $1,000; Rep. Fields, D-Anchorage:

“House Bill 90 gives the legislature the authority to appropriate funds for a dividend, and it caps that amount at $1,000.”

My HB 90 analysis:

My liberal friends truly believe to the core, that protecting or creating a government job is economic development. More money for the government is like blood to cancer. Rep. Field’s number is 888-465-2647.

2. HB 185, Permanent Fund Dividend Tax; Rep. Fields, D Anchorage:

“HB 185 establishes a Permanent Fund Dividend income tax rebate for working-class families while maintaining net-zero taxes on higher income families. Under this bill’s structure, individuals earning $75,000 and families earning $150,000 or more would pay annual income taxes equivalent to each year’s PFD, while lower income earners and all children would continue to receive PFDs.”

My HB 185 analysis:

See the Zobel case, (Alaska Supreme Court). This measure probably runs contrary to equal protection issues in Zobel. This approach ignores Wally Hickel’s, “Owner State” doctrine that recognizes that the state, not the people, holds the ownership of all post-statehood subsurface mineral estate, and your PFD is a dividend from your share of said public mineral estate ownership. This reveals the “left fork” philosophy of the public labor lobby: cap the PFD, and tax the rest.  Rep. Field’s number is 888-465-2647.

1. SB 61, US President Elected with Popular Vote; The number one partisan, “left fork” policy legislation award goes to: The powerful Senate Majority Rules Chairman, Sen. Bill Wielechowski, D-Anchorage: 

“SB 61 would have Alaska join the 15 other states and the District of Columbia who have already joined the agreement. Together these states have 195 electoral votes. Once states totaling a majority of the Electoral College (currently 270 votes) join the agreement, these states will begin to award their electoral votes to the presidential ticket that receives the most votes nationwide. Until this threshold is reached, Alaska will continue to allocate its electoral votes to the winner of the statewide vote.”  

My SB 61 analysis:

These 15 “other states” are the same blue states and national Democratic Party that gave us: The invasion of our borders by thousands of military-age foreign nationals, 2nd class crime-and-tent cities, smash-and-grab felony shopping, thousands upon thousands of fentanyl deaths, no ID voting, runaway inflation, an endless war in the most corrupt nation on earth…. Ukraine, over-lorded by the most corrupt president in history, Biden. 

With the passage of SB 61, absolute power to select who is president will be ceded to a few large population blue coastal states.  Alaska will be forever marginalized. The founders understood the dangers of consolidating the selection of the president to large population centers.  Thus, the electoral college system was adopted.  Sen. Wielechowski’s number is 800-550-2435.

 In conclusion:

Apathy is the enemy of freedom.  The relentless attacks by the “Left Fork,” from both government and academia, undermine our freedom and liberty – liberty that was paid for by the blood and lives of many patriots who served, fought and died to keep us free.  Never forget that sacrifice, or we very well could be one short generation from tyranny.  

Scott Ogan is recently retired as a senior policy advisor to Senator Mike Shower, having served in that capacity from January 2019 – May 2023.

Biden’s sweeping rule changes could wipe out women’s sports

SENIOR CONTRIBUTOR
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Biden’s sweeping rule changes could wipe out women’s sports

By BRENDAN CLAREY | THE CENTER SQUARE

The Biden administration has proposed sweeping changes to expand the nation’s law prohibiting sex discrimination in the nation’s schools to include gender identity and sexual orientation. Final action on the rule is not expected until March, but legal challenges likely will arise upon its implementation. 

The U. S. Department of Education says the rules protect students and try to strike a balance between concerns over fairness and safety with the benefits of allowing transgender students to play. Critics, however, say the rule burdens girls and illegally rewrites the law.

Jennifer Braceras, the director of the Independent Women’s Law Center and a former member of the United States Commission on Civil Rights, told Chalkboard News that the Biden administration’s proposed changes would change the civil rights statute’s implementation and meaning. (Chalkboard News is published by the Franklin News Foundation, which also publishes The Center Square.)

“Title IX is a very specific statute, and it does only one thing: prohibit schools that accept federal dollars from discriminating on the basis of sex,” Braceras told Chalkboard. “Although Title IX is limited as to who it covers, it is broad in that it covers all aspects of the educational experience — including sports.”  

“In most educational areas, separating males and females is considered discriminatory,” Braceras said. “But sports are different from academics.

“Where sex is irrelevant to academics, it is often dispositive with respect to athletics because males have a clear biological advantage,” Braceras said. “That is why, for the past 50 years, the regulations that enforce Title IX have permitted schools to offer single-sex athletic teams.

“Unfortunately, however, the Biden administration has proposed a rule that, if adopted, would reverse the presumption that schools can offer separate sports teams for males and females,” Braceras said. “Under the proposed rule, women’s sports aren’t just for women anymore – they are for anyone who says he identifies as a woman unless a particular school can demonstrate that keeping a particular team female meets ‘important educational objectives.’” 

The Biden administration has proposed one larger rule that would redefine sex discrimination to include gender identity and sexual orientation for federally funded academic institutions. There’s also a second rule that applies specifically to sports and athletic teams for those institutions. 

The broader changes proposed to Title IX govern a number of protections for students including pregnancy discrimination, sexual harassment, parental rights, how schools are required to take action, retaliation for filing a complaint, improve grievance reporting procedures and changes to create protections for gender identity and sexuality.

That sweeping rule change would, among other things, prohibit recipients of federal funds from “adopting a policy or engaging in a practice that prevents a person from participating in an education program or activity consistent with their gender identity.”  

The athletic-specific rule would prohibit blanket bans on transgender athletes participating in sports that align with their gender identity. It would put the onus on school districts and institutions of higher learning to create case-by-case guidelines for sports and athletes.

“If a recipient adopts or applies sex-related criteria that would limit or deny a student’s eligibility to participate on a male or female athletic team consistent with their gender identity, those criteria must, for each sport, level of competition, and grade or education level: be substantially related to the achievement of an important educational objective, and minimize harms to students whose opportunity to participate on a male or female team consistent with their gender identity would be limited or denied,” the proposed rule states.

“Obviously, developing detailed policies for each and every team will be administratively burdensome and legally risky for schools,” Braceras said. “Moreover, schools will have to somehow show that they have ‘minimized the harm’ to trans students – a subjective test without clear contours.

“No school superintendent wants to litigate this issue with Washington multiple times at the risk that the Department will revoke federal funding,” Braceras said. “So most schools are likely just to let males who say they identify as women play on women’s teams, no questions asked. “

“So, in effect, the new rule places the burden of proof on the female athletes who object to men in their sport,” Braceras said. 

The rules purportedly strike a balance between the interests of transgender students and players who will be competing against opponents who may be of the opposite biological sex. 

“The Department recognizes that prevention of sports-related injury is an important educational objective in recipients’ athletic programs and that – as courts have long recognized in cases involving sex-separate athletic teams – fairness in competition may be particularly important for recipients in some sports, grade and education levels, and levels of competition,” the proposed rule reads.

“The administration seems to think that they can find a way to let biological males play women’s sports and still ensure fairness,” Braceras said. “But all the talk of fairness sort of misses the point because Title IX isn’t a ‘fairness in sports’ law. It’s an equal opportunity law concerned with making sure that females have opportunities previously denied them.

“So even if there were a way to ensure a level playing field when biological men participate in women’s sports – and there is not – the proposed rule would contradict the statute’s equal opportunity mandate,” said Braceras. “That’s because the world of competitive sport is a zero-sum game in which some athletes make the team and others do not.”

The Office of Management and Budget says the broader rule change to Title IX will be finalized in May 2024. Chalkboard previously reported that the timeline had been pushed for the athletic rule until March 2024. 

For Braceras, the timing is more than just bureaucratic delays. 

“I believe that the administration is deliberately delaying releasing the final rule for as long as it can so that the opponents of the rule can’t formally challenge the administration’s actions in court,” Braceras said.  

Disgraced: Harvard president resigns, claims victimhood

SENIOR CONTRIBUTOR
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Disgraced: Harvard president resigns, claims victimhood

By SARAH RODERICK-FITCH | THE CENTER SQUARE

Harvard President Claudine Gay announced her resignation Tuesday following new allegations of plagiarism and scrutiny of her congressional testimony on antisemitism.

In recent weeks, Gay’s presidency has divided the Ivy League university, with faculty, administrators and the governing Harvard Corporation supporting the embattled president. At the same time, a group of students called for her to step down.

In Gay’s resignation letter, she expressed the difficult decision to step down from the university while saying personal attacks were “fueled” by racism. The letter was void of responsibility for minimizing antisemitism, serial plagiarism, intimidating the press, or damage to the institution.

Her term is the shortest of presidents for Harvard, which traces its founding to 1636.

“It is with a heavy heart but a deep love for Harvard that I write to share that I will be stepping down as president. This is not a decision I came to easily,” Gay wrote.

“Amidst all of this, it has been distressing to have doubt cast on my commitments to confronting hate and to upholding scholarly rigor – two bedrock values that are fundamental to who I am – and frightening to be subjected to personal attacks and threats fueled by racial animus,” Gay added.

Gay noted she consulted with the Harvard Corporation in her decision. Last month, the 13-member governing board unanimously stood by the university president, reaffirming confidence.

“After consultation with members of the Corporation, it has become clear that it is in the best interests of Harvard for me to resign so that our community can navigate this moment of extraordinary challenge with a focus on the institution rather than any individual,” Gay wrote.

Over the weekend, students called for Gay’s resignation in an editorial in The Harvard Crimson, the student newspaper, citing “scandal after scandal.”

“University President Claudine Gay should resign,” the editorial demanded. “It has been less than half a year since Gay assumed one of the most prestigious posts in all of academia. Since then, scandal after scandal has plagued our beloved university.”

The editorial slammed those at the university for standing by Gay after her controversial congressional testimony and allegations of plagiarism, saying the scandal surrounding Gay was ultimately hurting the university.

“Because our peers avoid reckoning with the severity of Gay’s failures, dismissing instances of explicit plagiarism as insufficient to warrant her resignation, we respectfully dissent,” the editorial wrote. “One doesn’t need to look far to see that Harvard isn’t running smoothly – these scandals disrupt teaching and research, Harvard’s core missions. As students, we are exhausted.”

The opinion piece said Gay’s good character and scholarly abilities weren’t enough to save her tenure as president.

“President Gay may be a good person. She may even be a praiseworthy scholar, despite the allegations. But that isn’t enough to remain president. The leader of the world’s foremost university must be held to a higher standard, one that Gay has unfortunately failed to meet,” the editorial concluded. “It is clear to us that the continuation of Gay’s tenure as president only hurts the University. For Harvard’s sake, Gay must go.” 

Despite the students’ call for Gay’s resignation, last month, Gay received a boost of support from nearly 700 faculty members who urged the president not to bow to pressure to resign, citing “political pressures.”  

Chinese batteries at Camp Lejeune disconnected after lawmakers raise security concerns

Suzanne Downing
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Chinese batteries at Camp Lejeune disconnected after lawmakers raise security concerns

Duke Energy announced that it has disconnected Chinese-manufactured batteries from Camp Lejeune after lawmakers raised concerns to the Pentagon about security.

Duke Energy told Military.com that it disconnected the lithium batteries produced by the company CATL from the North Carolina installation’s energy infrastructure after “some concerns about this project” were raised.

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL), a company directly funded and supported by the Chinese Communist Party, continues to pose national security risks to the United States. This past spring, CATL batteries were installed at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, Sen. Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican, wrote.

Rubio and other senators sent a letter to U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, demanding the U.S. Department of Defense immediately reverse the decision to install CATL batteries at Camp Lejeune. The letter called for a full assessment of whether CATL systems have been installed at other U.S. military bases. 

Todd Lindley: Storage to shortage — The Cook Inlet natural gas crisis

SENIOR CONTRIBUTOR
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Todd Lindley: Storage to shortage — The Cook Inlet natural gas crisis

By TODD LINDLEY

The old adage that to create a hero, one needs a villain is a useful context. If one wants to “solve” a problem, one need only to create a crisis. Cynicism aside, the public is served by knowledge and transparency, and here Southcentral ratepayers have much to hope for.

Why create a crisis?

Energy generation numbers are huge. Alaskans are paying some of the highest rates for energy in the U.S., with southcentral ratepayers forking out  nearly one billion dollars annually.  Alaskans would love to see a gas line and for advocates of tapping the Permanent Fund to build it, an energy crisis could prove useful.

For a privately financed pipeline too, ratepayers might be more accepting of price increases to fund it if they think energy supplies are dwindling. If a crisis looms, consumers could benefit from the favorable economics of LNG imports that could compete with Alaska producers, but imagine the permitting hurdles in the absence of a bona fide crisis? And we all know there are large financial and environmental “anti-carbon” interests bent on eliminating carbon-based energy altogether. To move the needle in today’s investment climate, a crisis is required.

Déjà vu: We have all been here before.

Circa 2010, when Sen. Dan Sullivan was Department of Natural  Resources Commissioner, there were numerous columns written spreading fear of “brownouts” and low gas supplies.

This led to the creation of state-subsidized credits for drilling and production through HB280 (Cook Inlet Recovery Act),which proved disastrous for everyone as the State reneged on its tax credits. AIDEA lost millions when a company it backed, Buccaneer, went bankrupt. SEMCO energy, at the time a Warren Buffet owned company,  used the urgency of a crisis to obtain the legal right to “take” private property using the powers of eminent domain. CINGSA—a private gas storage facility—rose to the rescue. In retrospect, did ratepayers benefit? Was there a real crisis, or were circumstances manufactured to justify higher rates and concessions to businesses, like CINGSA’s certificate of need and public convenience? Is it coincidental that the same playbook is emerging yet again for carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS)?

What’s going on now?

Last month, four seemingly random meetings occurred. First, the Regulatory Commission of Alaska met on Dec. 13 to discuss Renewable Portfolio Standards and tariff obligations like “forced” power outages.

Second, the DNR met that same day to announce the winners of the Cook Inlet lease sale.

Third, on Dec. 14, at an Alliance Breakfast, the deputy commissioner of the DNR discussed Cook Inlet lease incentives. Then, Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson held a press conference highlighting his Coalition of Southcentral Mayors to address the looming energy crisis.

Carbon is what connects all these dots. But not just any carbon, only those that must be reduced in order to meet a so-called energy transition by 2030–oil and natural gas. What’s so special about 2030? Possibly the answer is that the World Economic Forum, the United Nations, and the World Health Organization all have stated they will implement their plans by 2030. However what concerns us most is Alaska and exactly how much pressure is being exerted here. The meetings above give the public a glimpse of what’s coming by 2030 and to what degree global initiatives impact Alaskans.

Gaslighting or gas producing?

Creating an energy crisis starts where it’s felt most acutely—in population centers. The Railbelt utilities produce well over 80% of the electricity in the state. Most of the natural gas for electricity comes from the Cook Inlet, where Hilcorp, the current major supplier, has said their contracts will begin to expire around 2028 (Pg 1 – Executive Summary). Logically, this would mean we need to open up new long-term leases. Under the DNR’s leasing program, the entire basin is up for grabs. The interested parties are selected by the state based on their profit share for a term of only five years (2028), paying of cash bonuses and annually increasing lease payments. 

As the DNR announces their lease winners, some will celebrate ‘resource development’ without asking the tough questions: what are the drilling commitments and assumptions for the Cook Inlet? Gov. Mike Dunleavy along with the Coalition of Southcentral Mayors want us to believe that Alaskans need to act to incentivize exploration to avoid forced outages before 2027. And yet, known reserves, which can be massive, are largely kept hidden and are simply estimated based on the best reservoir engineering analysis available to the public. (Presently, only “producible gas” is disclosed in plans of operation submitted to the DNR or contained in reports submitted to the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.

Furthermore, until recently the USGS, the DNR, and the AK Division of Oil and Gas all advertised there are more than enough proven reserves to meet demand past 2030—not counting the “probable” or “possible” reserves. But, in a reversal, on Dec. 18, 2023 (Errata, Cover Page), the Department of Revenue issued a corrected production forecast for Cook Inlet. So, what changed?  

Cook Inlet energy context

In his State of the State in January of 2023, Gov. Dunleavy highlighted the CO2 storage potential of the Cook Inlet, but nothing was mentioned about the deficiency of Cook Inlet gas leasing or production. Beginning in 2022, presentations about an Alaska Gas line all show that the Cook Inlet must turn into a CO2 sequestration basin (Pg. 11) to unlock the ammonia, hydrogen, and LNG markets for our “Asian” allies. 

Reportedly, Alaskans will only obtain their small share of this market if the utilities decide to tie-in to the new gas line. Further eroding the interests of ratepayers is the view by the utilities that natural gas is a transitional fuel—essentially a bridging, too, before renewable portfolio standards are adopted.

These standards, which were voted down during the RCA public meeting, would drive your personal energy costs up tremendously by 2030, siphoning hard earned wages from average Alaskans and re-distributing them to inefficient utilities. 

This will happen if we lose natural gas as the primary fuel to generate electricity and mandate that gas be replaced by renewables like wind, solar, hydro, and thermal. All very costly and unreliable. Right now, there is talk of further utility rate increases, with decarbonization targets to meet 2030 goals through fuel savings and modified consumer behavior. In other words, if gas isn’t available, ratepayers are forced to adopt alternatives. 

Why is no one discussing the obvious and less costly option of importing LNG? When Henry Hub prices in the gulf hover about $3/Mcf, and transportation from there to Cook Inlet is roughly $2.50/ Mcf, gas can land here for under $6/Mcf. Long-term utility contracts, however, are closer to $12/Mcf. That’s quite a spread. Renewables will likely be even less “affordable.”

In the study done by Berkley Research Group, the imports discussion focused on options from repurposing the Marathon Refinery to a Floating LNG facility to make up supply gaps. Interestingly, in trying to secure electricity rates under $0.10/kWh, the Energy Security Task Force projected the cost of supply for the state-owned projects to be around the $10-12/Mcf marker.

To the State, the optics of an LNG import facility in Alaska is rife with conflict, but it would benefit ratepayers. And it could help propel support for the ultimate objective which is the AK LNG project, along with its decarbonization and Railbelt electrification components. Citizens should pay attention to 8 Star LLC (pg. 23 of presentation) which will be the entity toraise funds for an in-state gas line project as well as to negotiateutility supply contracts. 

As with many crises, it is not the headlines that deserve our attention. Behind the scenes, the laws we implement and the expanded powers we create for agencies tell the real story. Consider this proposed amendment to Alaska Statute 42.05.141(pg. 133, Action A-2.2), which will broaden the RCA’s powers. Specifically, it states that in creating electric service rates, “…the commission shall promote the conservation and diversification of resources used in the generation of electric energy.” As it did with CINGSA in 2013, RCA powers will be ready to deploy in response to yet another Cook Inlet gas supply crisis in 2023. 

Assumptions of grandeur

There are two facts buried in the DNR Cook Inlet Reserves Study and the Berkeley Research Group Report relating to Cook Inlet’s development plan, both of which support AK LNG’ goal to build a pipeline to monetize North Slope gas. First, Hilcorp just entered into a 20-year agreement to supply North Slope (Pg. 64) natural gas to the Interior Gas Utility which “…will drive future demand of Cook Inlet gas down in the future.” Thus, Hilcorp is betting on Gov. Dunleavy’s ability to deliver on AK LNG. This will help ‘transition’ their Middle Gas Shoal (MGS) platforms to CCUS. The second fact is that within the AK DNR Cook Inlet Reserves Study, no drilling is assumed to take place after 2030 (Pg 9).

In any other era, such a plan could be perceived as collusion as our elected officials appear to be taking Cook Inlet out of play as a potential energy supplier. Hilcorp is not the only player in this basin, so why should Alaskans not be alarmed at a policy of no drilling in the Cook Inlet after 2030? 

Alaskans deserve straight answers: Did Cook Inlet producers indicate a decline in production or an inability to meet future demand—thus leading to a perceived fuel shortage for southcentral utilities? Or, alternatively, did shortages suddenly appear because our utilities project reduced demand due to our forced “transition” to renewables? 

Unless Alaskans demand more transparency, the Cook Inlet basin will be the next casualty in a campaign to appease a climate change narrative and to implement Environmental, Social, and Governance policy. Who wins and who loses? You decide. 

Maybe, as the possessed Edward Wayne Brady said in the film Nefarious: “Probably just a coincidence.”  

Todd M Lindley, PE is an energy and engineering professional in Alaska and VP of Alaska Gold Communications, Inc. Contact him @TMLindley_AK on X (Formerly Twitter).

Old-timers head back to workforce: Report

SENIOR CONTRIBUTOR
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51
Old-timers head back to workforce: Report

A study released by the Pew Research Center shows that more Americans over the age of 65 are heading back to work. The reason? They need the money. Twice as many people over 65 are still working than earlier generations of 35 years ago, Pew reported.

For decades, Baby Boomers lingered in the workforce, much to the complaints of younger generations wishing they’d retire and make room at the top of organizations.

Now, reasons older Americans say they are going back to work include changes in Social Security benefits, which forces people to work past age 65 in order to receive full benefits, lack of savings, increased inflation, and a shift away from defined benefit plans that reward people for retiring early.

In 2022, the average worker over the age of 65 was making about $22 an hour, compared to the average wage for those 25-64, which was $19 an hour. Since 2022, wage inflation has had an impact on those salaries, and so has inflation’s pressure on retired people’s savings.

In addition, there are more jobs for people who want to work, and older workers are viewed as having better work ethic than Generation X, Y, or Z.

Older Workers Are Growing in Number and Earning Higher Wages

California now offers free health insurance to illegal immigrants

Suzanne Downing
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28
California now offers free health insurance to illegal immigrants

Starting Jan. 1, all illegal immigrants, regardless of age or criminal status, qualify for Medi–Cal, California’s Medicaid program.

The program, an expansion of taxpayer-funded health care that started with Obamacare, makes an estimated 764,000 illegal residents between ages 26 and 49 eligible for full coverage. Earlier expansions included children, young adults and older illegals.

Medi-Cal already covered 14.6 million Californians – more than a third of the state’s population, before the 2024 expansion to those in the country illegally.

Meanwhile, since Obamacare created mandatory insurance laws with the promise of driving down costs, the average annual premium for covered workers in California averaged $8,083 for single coverage and $22,818 for family coverage in 2023, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

but Californians will pay 11% more for health insurance in 2024, due to inflation and state policies driven in part by the rising number of Medi-Cal enrollees.

The free health care may help California reverse its population trend. As working people flee California for Texas and other states, the illegal immigrants may flock to the state for the health services it offers them, boosting actual population numbers but putting pressure on services.

California’s population was 39.5 million in 2020, but declined to below 39 million in 2023.

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