That being the case, an accurate assessment of Senate Bill 21 (oil tax reform) can only start in 2014.
So, let’s look at that.
According to the Alaska Department of Natural Resources Division of Oil and Gas, the Trans Alaska Pipeline System throughput in 2014 was 512,827 barrels per day.
The most accurate assessment of current Trans Alaska Pipeline throughput can be found in the upper right-hand corner of the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company’s website. Alyeska was formed to design, build, maintain, and operate the Trans Alaska Pipeline System.
For 2018, as of June 20, 2018 at 3:23 PM, the average barrels produced per day was 540,763.
540,763 (2018) is more than 512,827 (2014). The difference is about 28,000 barrels per day.
540,763 is also more than Cole’s alleged 2013 figure of 532,000.
Contrary to what naysayers have stated, Senate Bill 21 has been a good step in the right direction.
How do we know?
There is evidence. Alaska has seen increased investment. Stable tax policy is one part of the equation. That overall equation has led to higher production projections. Those projections exist today but did not exist in years past.
That’s good news for everyone.
John Coghill is a state senator representing District B Fairbanks-North Pole.
Not so fast: Dermot Cole plays fast and loose with the facts.
At this time in 2015, the State of Alaska had 9,175 applications for Medicaid that were considered “out of time frame.”
That meant the applications were backlogged for more than 30 days. Some applications went back a year, which meant low-income, children, elderly, and disabled Alaskans were suffering because they couldn’t get qualified for Medicaid.
Then along came the tsunami — the Obamacare Medicaid expansion population brought on by Gov. Bill Walker with a stroke of the pen, over the objections of a majority of legislators. By 2018, the backlog of applications had increased to 20,000.
As critics predicted, the new applicants of able-bodied adults who earn up to 38 percent more than the federally established poverty level are crowding out the truly sick and needy.
Complaints started coming in: Applications were lost; there was no way to get a response from the Division of Public Assistance. The State Ombudsman’s Office was receiving more than two complaints every working day — over 400 in a year from both the regular Medicaid recipients and the new applicants under expansion.
The office had been working with DPS on individual Alaskans’ cases to try to get them resolved, but saw no improvement.
In January of this year, the Ombudsman’s Office initiated an investigation. It did a deep dive into the processes and challenges at the Division of Public Assistance. It looked over the shoulders of workers who were trying their level best to determine eligibility in an enormously complicated system.
The office’s report, released in May, documents a systemic failure of the Department of Health and Social Services under the direction of Commissioner Valerie Davidson to roll out the Medicaid expansion program in a way that would not harm the existing non-expansion population.
The Ombudsman’s report shows an agency overwhelmed by the flood of Medicaid expansion applicants, with a 24 percent increase in applications since Gov. Bill Walker grew the program starting Sept. 1, 2015.
Although the agency has not been able to retain its key workforce in this program, with a 54 percent turnover in the eligibility specialists and office assistants at DPS year over year, the Legislature authorized another 20 positions to address the growing backlog. The department had asked for more than double that amount.
The division now has the challenge of trying to prop up morale in the existing workforce, while hiring and training for dozens of unfilled or new positions, and answering the needs tens of thousands of Alaskans who are knocking on the door for an entitlement promised to them by the Walker Administration.
We don’t like talking about it much, but Juneau’s picturesque landscape has some scary bare spots we can’t seem to patch. Formerly full local malls remain half empty; our 121,000 square foot Walmart store building stands vacant; and most recently, the Capital City’s nationally renowned Perseverance Theatre is struggling financially.
Certainly, some of this is due to the demographic slump Juneau is experiencing as well as Alaska’s weak economic climate. Fewer jobs, declining population, reduced school enrollments, and lower state budgets, combined with rising crime rates, opioid abuse, and homelessness are just some of the fiscal challenges that Juneau must juggle going forward.
Our population decline, as in the rest of Southeast Alaska, is even more concerning as 2020 census and re-districting approaches. It’s quite possible, even likely, Juneau will need to draw population from neighboring towns to maintain its two State House seats, further reducing whatever clout we may have in garnering state funding for capital projects and other needs.
Win Gruening
We are fortunate to have the visitor and mining industries along with state employment (albeit declining) to help mitigate these trends.
Despite this, Juneau is shrinking – meaning it will be more and more difficult to spread the costs of government, education, public safety, social services, and our aging infrastructure over fewer and fewer people.
This trend isn’t just isolated to the private sector. The Juneau School District is under extreme financial pressure with diminished enrollments and state revenues along with the burden of facilities that are under-utilized. The Juneau International Airport has been unable, up to now, to complete re-construction of the obsolete and aging north wing due to funding shortfalls.
One of Juneau’s most significant and critical pieces of infrastructure is our water and sewer system. Despite benefiting from last year’s generous sales tax allocations, it remains woefully under-funded. Juneau has some of the highest water and sewer utility rates in the state, yet forecasts are that these rates will continue to rise dramatically. CBJ’s own study recommended spending $75 million every 10 years to upgrade one-quarter of our water and sewer infrastructure so that it’s completely replaced within its 40-year lifespan.
Thus, many people are asking, “With a stagnant economy and declining population coupled with rising community financial needs, why would we add major new services and facilities that will likely increase taxes and/or decrease necessary services elsewhere?”
Currently under consideration are large funding requests towards a $32 million arts and culture center project (plus at least $10+ million for parking) and a $2.8 million annual outlay for a new Pre-K childcare program. Also, being proposed is a new city hall atop the Main Street Parking Garage.
While these projects may be well-intentioned, under current economic circumstances, should they be considered a priority for city funding? Won’t they either replace funding for other necessary projects or precipitate increases in municipal taxes?
If Juneau’s population was growing, our economy was robust and vibrant, and living-wage jobs were rising, these ideas might make sense and be worthy of consideration. Under those conditions, tax revenues would be increasing and there would be more people willing and able to support new programs and facilities.
Ironically, projects that would actually expand our economy, such as the Lynn Canal Highway or re-writing the mining ordinance to attract new mining operations, receive no end of public scrutiny, fiscal analysis and serious pushback from those who view growth as detrimental to our quality of life.
Therefore, supporters of spending public money on the arts or preschool programs should have no objection to having their projects subject to equally rigorous examination.
In the interests of transparency, prior to any CBJ staff or Assembly action or community-wide vote on any of these initiatives, serious objective financial analysis must assure residents that funding (through debt or otherwise) won’t prevent other more essential projects from moving forward.
Further, forecast operations of proposed projects should be detailed enough to ensure they will not incur additional operational subsidies that would negatively affect future community priorities or cause an increase in our municipal taxes.
Only then, after all the dots are connected, can we truly make thoughtful and well-informed decisions.
Win Gruening retired as the senior vice president in charge of business banking for Key Bank in 2012. He was born and raised in Juneau and graduated from the U.S. Air Force Academy in 1970. He is active in community affairs as a 30-plus year member of Juneau Downtown Rotary Club and has been involved in various local and statewide organizations.
Anchorage Police took Orlando Holder into custody in the Mountain View neighborhood last night. He is now in the Anchorage Correctional Complex, and is charged with murder II, manslaughter, and misconduct involving a weapon III (felon in possession).
Detectives working the case of the shooting death of Jaymes I. Bradley, killed by gunshot in Spenard on June 14, developed information as to Holder’s whereabouts, and officers with the Investigative Support Unit took Holder into custody after questioning him.
Brent crude oil prices will average $71 per barrel this year, and $68 in 2019, according to the latest Energy Information Agency forecast.
The updated 2019 price is $2 per barrel higher than what was projected by the agency just a month ago.
Alaska North Slope crude oil prices track Brent prices fairly closely, which makes it an important bellwether for Alaska’s economy. Today’s price for ANS crude is $73.20. A year ago today it was $46.65.
The FY19 state budget balances at $71 per barrel, including the percent of market value (POMV) draw amount from the Permanent Fund Earnings Reserve to pay for state government and Permanent Fund dividends.
The average barrels per day coming from the North Slope this year is 540,763. The throughput in May was 529,382, trending down as the warm season brings lower volumes and scheduled maintenance that occurs during summer months.
This year, to date, the Trans Alaska Pipeline has shipped 81,655,186 barrels to market. Last year, a total of 192,472,797 barrels were shipped during the year, measurably higher than 2014, 2015, and 2016.
In the June update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook the agency said Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $77 per barrel in May, an increase of of $5 per barrel from April and the highest monthly average price since November 2014.
Prices for crude oil have risen as global inventories have declined over the past 18 month.
According to EIA, most of the global growth in oil production in the coming months will be from the United States with crude oil production averaging 10.8 million barrels per day in 2018, up nearly double from 2017.
In 2019, U.S. production is projected to be nearly 12 million a day, which will be the highest domestic production level on record.
Could Gov. Bill Walker become the new China-U.S. trade negotiator for the Trump Administration?
President Donald Trump upped the ante in the tariff war with China today, ordering U.S. officials to add another $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to the list of those that would be hit with an additional 10 percent tariff.
Last week, China said it would retaliate against the first round of $50 billion in announced U.S. tariffs. China issued a list of nearly 550 U.S. products that will be hit by a 25 percent tariff starting July 6. It included Alaska seafood.
“This latest action by China clearly indicates its determination to keep the United States at a permanent and unfair disadvantage, which is reflected in our massive $376 billion trade imbalance in goods,” Trump said today.
“This is unacceptable. Further action must be taken to encourage China to change its unfair practices, open its market to United States goods, and accept a more balanced trade relationship with the United States,” Trump said.
Meanwhile, Gov. Bill Walker of Alaska also made a statement today about the trade war, but it was soothing, and indicated that Alaska can “dramatically” soften the trade imbalance with the state’s natural gas, baby food, beer, and seafood. His statement in full:
“Alaska has abundant resources, from natural gas and seafood to beer and baby food. These resources enable our state to dramatically reduce the trade deficit between the United States and China, if we can finalize agreements to increase exports of our products. Trade negotiations between leaders from both countries are ongoing. I am confident that we will, in the end, embrace the opportunity for mutual economic growth that we can achieve by working together. Next week, I will meet in Washington with leaders from both governments who have been at the table leading the efforts to avoid an unnecessary trade war. I will continue to work directly with both sides to make sure Alaska’s interests are protected.”
Sean Parnell, former governor of Alaska, has joined the law firm of Holland & Hart, in the firm’s Anchorage office.
Parnell was governor from 2009-2014, and served as lieutenant governor, state senator, and representative. He is a lifelong Alaskan with decades of experience in commercial contracts, natural resources and government.
Parnell will serve clients in energy and infrastructure development, and will continue to serve his existing Alaska business clients developed in his private practice in Palmer, where he and his wife Sandy live. He will work both in Palmer and in Anchorage.
“The extensive connections and relationships Sean has fostered at state, federal, and Western regional levels make Sean a valuable resource for clients undertaking infrastructure or natural resource exploration and development. Sean provides the firm’s energy and natural resources clients with a unique combination of experience as a former government leader, legislator, administrator, and legal advisor,” said Kyle Parker, administrative partner.
Holland & Hart opened up its Anchorage office in 2017, taking over the practice of Crowell & Moring. Its 500-lawyer firm has the largest environmental law practice in the country, according to Law360. It has 16 offices across the Mountain West and in Washington, D.C.
Meet Jason Schneider, the State of Alaska’s newest member of the Walker Administration. His job title is “Innovation Stakeholder Change Manager.”
You’ve not heard of this? It’s kind of a secret.
Schneider, a surfer originally from California, was over the winter hired away from his job as the executive director of the Marquette, Michigan Chamber of Commerce, where he worked for the past three years. Marquette is a small town on the shore of Lake Superior, population 21,000.
In addition to starting the Chamber of Commerce there, he has also been a wedding and event photographer for 17 years. He has run a coffee shop and he likes rock climbing. Schneider has a B.S. in economics from Northern Michigan University.
Schneider announced he was leaving his Michigan job in February, and the local Marquette media reported it at the time, but he would not reveal to them where he was moving to or what the new job was. It was a secret.
In an interview in March with a Marquette blog, he said his duties were still being worked out, but he still wasn’t ready to say where he was going. It was still confidential — he couldn’t talk about it.
Last week, word was out in Marquette: He had been hired by the State of Alaska as the chief “innovation stakeholder change manager officer,” with his start-date in May.
Must Read Alaska has submitted a public records request for his duties, chain of command, and pay. He’s stationed in Juneau in the Department of Administration and he’s clearly enjoying his life in Juneau so far, according to social media. But it’s only been a couple of weeks in the belly of the beast that is state bureaucracy.
Anchorage Mayor Ethan Berkowitz also hired a change agent in his administration. Brendan Babb is the municipality’s “Chief Innovation Officer.”
The role of Chief Innovation Officer is a new thing in bureaucracies, but it’s clearly trending. Usually the role is associated with technological advancements and how to modernize data systems.
About 8,000 cases were denied by the U.S. Supreme Court this session, but Alaska’s John Sturgeon vs. Frost (U.S. Park Service case #17-949) was accepted — for the second time. The announcement came this morning.
The high court’s first ruling in 2016 was narrow, but in Sturgeon’s favor. It sent key questions back to the Ninth Circuit, which doubled down in October, 2017 on its ruling against state sovereignty and aspects of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act. The 9th Circuit judges ruled the federal government has authority over rivers within the national parks under a broad scope of water reservation provisions in federal law.
The Supreme Court accepts fewer than 1 percent of the cases brought to it. But after the court took his case the first time in 2016, Sturgeon felt somewhat more confident it would accept his case again, if only because the 9th Circuit simply ignored the Supreme Court’s directions for review.
“Going to the Supreme Court is a miracle,” said Sturgeon. “And of the 8,000 petitions this term, they took 20. It means that hopefully the federal government will understand the state sovereignty issues: The State of Alaska owns the rivers and navigable waters, and it gets to manage them, under the provisions of ANILCA. Above all, this is about state sovereignty.”
Sturgeon thinks the case will be heard this summer, and that the justices will answer the question of whether Section 103c of ANILCA says the federal government cannot control navigable waters and has no control over inholdings on national parks and preserves under ANILCA.
