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Southeast Alaska faces a redistricting peril

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By WIN GRUENING
SENIOR CONTRIBUTOR

After U. S. independence, the country’s population grew, but did not grow equally. Some towns and counties grew much faster and larger than others. In order to keep pace with changing population and provide balance in their legislative bodies, some jurisdictions shifted the number of elected representatives assigned to each district, or reconfigured district lines; others did not.

In a series of court cases starting in the mid-1960s, the Supreme Court decided that large disparities in district populations violated the U.S. Constitution. It required roughly equal population for each legislative district. This meant, to account for population changes, district boundaries must be readjusted every ten years after each new U.S. Census.

Win Gruening

How and when this is implemented can impact future elections significantly.  All candidates for the U.S. House, state legislatures, and even some municipal assemblies or councils are elected from districts.

Since U. S. Senators, Governors, and other state-wide offices represent entire states without regard to districts, redistricting does not affect them.  Alaska is one of only seven states that contains just one congressional district representing the entire state, so redistricting doesn’t affect the U.S. House seat now held by Representative Don Young.

If a state’s population shifts dramatically, it can either lose or gain seats in Congress through re-apportionment. Likewise, within each state, redistricting may result in changing legislative representation. In Alaska,redistricting affects the seats held by our state legislators – 20 in the State Senate and 40 in the State House.

Alaska’s constitution mandates that state legislative lines are drawn by a five-member independent commission. The governor chooses two commissioners. The state Senate president, House speaker, and chief justice of the state Supreme Court each choose one.  A commissioner may not be a public official or government employee and must be an Alaskan resident for at least one year. At least one commissioner must be appointed from each of the state’s four judicial districts.

It shouldn’t be surprising that redistricting has led to legal challenges during both Republican and Democrat administrations. This has resulted in the state Supreme Court requiring plan revisions for non-compliance with Alaska constitutional standards.

Alaska districts must be, as much as practicable, equal in population size, socio-economic make-up, and be contiguous and compact – all more exacting than federal requirements – and difficult to achieve in a state as large as ours with widely separated population centers. Assuming compliance with these standards, it would be difficult to “gerrymander” districts in a way that would pass constitutional muster.

Nevertheless, recent demographic trends will have enormous implications for Alaskans and especially those living in Juneau and Southeast.

Despite election races currently pending, Republicans will still likely control both legislative bodies along with the Governor’s House.  They would also control four of the five appointments to the Redistricting Board and will determine major legislative leadership positions, committee chairs, and therefore, scheduling and control of legislative action.

All three members of Juneau’s newly-elected legislative delegation are Democrat and just one legislator in Southeast Alaska (Sen. Bert Stedman from Sitka) would be in a legislative majority.

Equally important, large population increases in the Mat-Su, coupled with continuing declining population in Southeast, and Juneau in particular, presage a loss of regional representation in the Legislature.

Since 1980, Southeast’s nine legislative seats have declined to six and, given current population trends, may decline even further.  Remember, after the 2010 census, redistricting required re-allocation of district boundaries in order to offset declines in Juneau and other areas of Southeast.  This resulted in the loss of one house seat to Wasilla, requiring Haines, Skagway, and Gustavus to be absorbed into Juneau’s downtown district.

This doesn’t bode well for Southeast region’s ability to influence state operating and capital expenditures (especially in connection with the marine highway system) or future debates regarding the location of Alaska’s capital or legislature.

Long term, in order to stem the region’s dwindling political clout, Juneau and Southeast should consider working with the new administration and legislative majorities to embrace economic growth that will provide stable jobs and a lower cost of living – thereby attracting additional population to its communities.

The alternative is to do nothing and watch Southeast communities continue to shrink in population and influence.

Win Gruening retired as the senior vice president in charge of business banking for Key Bank in 2012. He was born and raised in Juneau and graduated from the U.S. Air Force Academy in 1970. He is active in community affairs as a 30-plus year member of Juneau Downtown Rotary Club and has been involved in various local and statewide organizations.

Assessing the midterm election: Ballot Measure 1 failed to turn out voters

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TURNOUT MODERATE

Two weeks after the Nov. 6 General Election in Alaska, enough of the absentee votes are counted that we can take a look at turnout.

Statewide, turnout was 49 percent, a strong number considering that the Division of Elections has a massive 571,851 registered voters for this election cycle — the most in Alaska history.

That means over 77 percent of the entire Alaska population is now eligible to vote.

Some 184,000 Alaskans are under the age of 18 and therefore ineligible to vote. These numbers are according to the U.S. Census and are, by nature, inexact.

280,458 of the 571,851 eligible ended up casting ballots before 8 pm on Nov. 6.

The voter rolls have ballooned in the decade since 2008, when there were only 495,000 registered voters.

An anomaly is that although the overall population of the state has increased by 7.28 percent in those 10 years, the registered voters have increased by 15 percent.

The biggest jump came between 2016 and 2018, when the number of registered voters jumped nearly 8 percent. At the same time, applicants for the Permanent Fund dividend dropped by 2,118 by the March 31 deadline this year, an indicator of a falling population. Actual population dropped by 2,629, according to the State of Alaska.

How can the population drop and yet Alaska has more registered voters than at any time in the history of the state? Chalk it up to automatic voter registration during the Permanent Fund dividend application process.

668,588 applied for a Permanent Fund dividend. Anyone who was eligible to register was automatically enrolled as a voter. The opt-out provision was badly managed.

IMPACT OF BALLOT MEASURE 1

Ballot initiatives are used to drive voter turnout, but Ballot Measure 1 underperformed for the Democrats who pushed it.

Ballot Measure 1 would have made salmon protections more stringent than current laws provide. Millions of dollars were spent by both the environmental lobby and the business community to motivate people to vote either yes or no on what became known as the “Stand for Salmon” or “Stand for Alaska” ballot question.

Ballot Measure 1 earned fewer total votes than the other two statewide items on the ballot, which were the governor’s race with 278,597 votes and the congressional race with 277,647 votes.

Yet for all the millions spent on persuasion, Ballot Measure 1 only brought 271,168 votes.  Several thousand voters either were undecided or found the dense language on the ballot confusing and put-offish.

Generally, higher voter turnout favors Democrats. But in this election, Republicans took the Congressional race, the Governor’s Office, the State House and the State Senate. They also crushed Ballot Measure 1.

With Ballot Measure 1 failing by a landslide, 62.4 to 37.6 percent, it appears that a large number of Democrats and progressives — as much as 18 percent — voted against the measure that was placed on the ballot specifically to bring them out to the polls.

TOP DISTRICTS FOR TURNOUT

The most avid voters in the state were in House District 28, Rabbit Creek-South Anchorage, with a 62 percent turnout.

The lowest performing district in the state remains House District 15, JBER-Muldoon, where 28 percent of the voters turned out.

District 2 Fairbanks, where Rep. Steve Thompson is the incumbent, had only a 29 percent turnout — a poor showing that resulted in the defeat of incumbent Senator Pete Kelly.

Dunleavy’s Labor Commissioner: Tamika Ledbetter

Gov.-elect Mike Dunleavy announced Tamika Ledbetter as his Labor and Workforce Development commissioner.

Ledbetter is an equal opportunity coordinator for the department. She works in the Eagle River and Wasilla offices of Labor.

The announcement was made at the convention of the Alaska Farm Bureau, a nonprofit devoted to increasing the successes of Alaska’s farms. About 40 farmers from around the state were in attendance during the group’s annual banquet in Anchorage.

Ledbetter was named a Top 40 Under 40 by the Alaska Journal of Commerce in 2014. She has a bachelor’s degree in history and political science from Virginia Union University and a master’s degree in adult education and training. She also has her PhD in organizational leadership from the University of Phoenix.

She has been active in housing and homelessness coalitions, women’s ministries, and small business development.

In her current role in DoL, she oversees and coordinates three job center locations, and as many as 30 staff that provide workforce development and services to job seekers, veterans and employers. She began with the department in 2009 as a career development specialist.

She is a U.S. Air Force veteran.

Red letter day: Political appointees asked to resign

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Political appointments are, by nature, temporary job holders.

Those hundreds of people appointed by Gov. Bill Walker when he took over in 2014 have now received their letters requesting their resignation. Most of them will go.

The letter requesting their resignation was signed by both the outgoing Chief of Staff Scott Kendall and the incoming Chief of Staff Tuckerman Babcock, and it went out to as many as 300 people who serve at the pleasure of the governor.

Those recipients would include everyone from commissioners to deputy commissioners and legislative liaisons for each department. They’d also include most division directors and other special assistants, as well as those working in state-owned enterprises, such as Alaska Energy Authority, Alaska Gasline Development Agency, and the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority.

The executive director of the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute has already resigned earlier this month.

It’s unknown whether the attorneys in the Department of Law are considered in the “exempt” category. They generally enjoy no protections of a union, and therefore would be considered partially exempt, employed at the pleasure of the governor.

The governor-elect has indicated that people who want to continue working for his administration need to apply, like everyone else, through his transition team.

A certain number of people were not asked to resign, Must Read Alaska has learned. But that’s a limited and closely guarded list.

In the final days of an administration, the janitorial crew comes through the offices of those exempt employees who are leaving and go through it thorough to clean it and make sure the next administration walks into a space that they can operate out of.

Inaugural events set

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DUNLEAVY TRANSITION TEAM ANNOUNCES SCHEDULE

Gov.-elect Mike Dunleavy’s transition team announced the following schedule of inaugural celebrations.

  • Sun., Dec. 2, Kotzebue: Pre-inaugural events
  • Mon., Dec. 3, Noorvik: Swearing-in
  • Tues., Dec. 4, 6-8:30 p.m., Wasilla: Menard Sports Center
  • Thurs., Dec. 6, 5-7 p.m., Kenai Peninsula: Soldotna Sports Center
  • Sat., Dec. 8, 6-8 p.m., Anchorage: Anchorage Christian School
  • Tues., Dec. 11, 3-6 p.m., Juneau: Governor’s Residence Open House and Inaugural Celebration
  • Sun., Dec. 16, 4-6 p.m., Fairbanks: Carlson Center
  • February TBD, Anchorage

Inaugural celebration co-chairs Cynthia Henry and Rina Salazar are working on details, but Alaskans can expect a combination of traditional, formal events, and less formal, family-centered ones.

“Mike Dunleavy is more Carhartt than tuxedo,” said co-chair Cynthia Henry. “These community celebrations will reflect that unique feature of our governor-elect.”

Rogoff: Hopfinger, Coyne and her were like ‘three-way marriage’

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PUBLISHER ASSUMED THEY WERE PARTNERS FOR LIFE

By CRAIG MEDRED
CRAIGMEDRED.NEWS

The staid facade to which 67-year-old, millionaire publisher Alice Rogoff has clung through more than a year of off-and-on court appearances in the wake of her bankrupting Alaska’s largest news organization finally cracked on Thursday.

On the stand in Anchorage Superior Court for the second day answering questions related to a $1 million lawsuit filed by former best-friend forever Tony Hopfinger, she looked very frail and human for a brief few minutes.

Some tears appeared in her eyes amid questions about the tight bonds that once bound her to Hopfinger and then-wife Amanda Coyne, the founders of the Alaska Dispatch. Rogoff described Coyne as the “guru” of the long gone, online news start-up, and Hopfinger as the cement that held the business together.

Alice Rogoff

Over the course of a few short years from the end of the 2000s into the 2010s, Rogoff invested enough money, and Hopfinger, Coyne and a small group of reporters invested enough sweat energy in the Dispatch to build it from nothing to a respected and steadily growing news organization. The Columbia Journalism Review labeled the Dispatch a “regional reporting powerhouse” in 2010. 

The Dispatch was as much a family as a news organization in those days, and though Rogoff only flitted in and out while others labored 60 to 80 hours per week, she was emotionally attached. She was the visiting grandma to a bunch of young reporters being schooled by Hopfinger, Coyne and a cranky old uncle, who worked in a rundown office in an airport hangar with a cupboard always stuffed with snacks and wine, and a refrigerator guaranteed to contain the makings for a late-night sandwich and, of course, a beer.

Rogoff knew how to take care of her people in those days, and though the pay wasn’t that great and the offices were a little grungy, the Dispatch had a lot of the fabled elements of internet start-ups everywhere: free food and a free bar, freedom to innovate, and esprit de corps.

More than once in those days, Rogoff testified, she told people she, Hopfinger and Coyne were in a “three-way marriage. I used to say that all the time publicly. We just all understood each other.”

“In my mind,” she said,”we would be making money.”

The marriage started to come apart after Coyne fell out of love with Hopfinger and in love with a powerful Alaska lobbyist in 2012. That caused all sort of problems. Hopfinger and some others on the Dispatch staff didn’t think it was a good idea for Coyne to be covering politics while in a romance with someone who tended to end up with his fingers in every big political deal in the state.

“(Hopfinger) thought that a little more than I did,” Rogoff admitted. “He thought he couldn’t trust her reporting.”

[Read more at CraigMedred.news]

Seesaw: Fairbanks absentees give LeBon the win with five votes?

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RECOUNT LIKELY FOR DISTRICT 1 HOUSE SEAT

The cliffhanger election in District 1 Fairbanks continues today, as absentees were counted.

What’s being decided today is the seat that Rep. Scott Kawasaki is vacating as he heads into the Senate. Kawasaki picked up more votes today to increase his lead on Sen. Pete Kelly.

Also, Republican Bart Lebon got 131 absentee votes and Kathryn Dodge got 116, meaning that LeBon seesawed ahead of Dodge by what appears to be 5 votes. More absentees from overseas could come in, and this race will likely head to a recount.

The race tightened on Tuesday when early votes and questioned ballots were counted, and Dodge had pulled ahead of LeBon by 10 votes.

Overseas ballots are due in no later than Nov. 21. There are 17 of those, and no recount can be done until they are accounted for.

Meanwhile, the Senate Seat A race has been all-but-decided for Scott Kawasaki, who was celebrating at the Fairbanks Division of Elections office and on the phone with supporters.

Kawasaki picked up 77 votes in the House District 2 area of Senate Seat A, and Kelly picked up 90, but in the HD 1 area, it went for Kawasaki over Kelly, 137-114.

In the House District 2 race, Rep. Steve Thompson already had a significant lead and picked up even more today, 103-63 over Democrat Van Lawrence.

This story will be updated.

Rogoff says former partner Hopfinger is lying about napkin contract

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SHE SAYS IT WAS ‘INCENTIVE COMP’

BY CRAIG MEDRED
CRAIGMEDRED.NEWS

The former owner of the bankrupt and gone Alaska Dispatch News/ADN.com took the stand in Anchorage Superior Court on Wednesday to testify under oath that the former editor of the 49th state’s by far largest news organization lied about a note promising him $1 million.

Alice Rogoff, the ex-wife of U.S. billionaire tycoon David Rubenstein, said 10 annual payments of $100,000 per year she guaranteed ADN editor Tony Hopfinger in 2014 weren’t for the purchase of his remaining, 5 percent interest in the online-only news organization – AlaskaDispatch.com – he started with ex-wife Amanda Coyne.

Instead, the 67-year-old Rogoff said, the promise was an added “incentive comp” to Hopfinger’s already healthy, new, $190,000 per year salary to encourage him to stay in Alaska for a decade “as president of the company and help me make it work.”

The first witness called by Hopfinger’s attorney in a lawsuit demanding she pay up on a handwritten, signed and dated napkin-promise, Rogoff portrayed the note as nothing more than an effort to buy Hopfinger’s fealty because she needed him to make her newspaper enterprise succeed.

She admitted, however, that there are no witnesses to back this claim. The note was written while Rogoff and Hopfinger were in the offices of the Anchorage law firm Birch, Horton, Bittner and Cherot.  It was witnessed by Jennifer Alexander, one of the firm’s small army of attorneys.

[Read more at CraigMedred.news]

Polar bear population healthy, study shows

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Retreating sea ice notwithstanding, the polar bear population off the western coast of Alaska’s Chukchi Sea appears to be abundant and healthy.

A study by researchers at the University of Washington and federal Fish and Wildlife Agency says about 3,000 polar bears make up the population in the Chukchi. There’s never been a formal study done before the one published Nov. 14 in Scientific Reports.

The authors say that the bears have about one month less time on their sea ice habitats, compared to what they had 25 years ago. And yet the animals are thriving.

[Read the scientific report here]

Although polar bears were listed in 2008 as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, this study doesn’t support the popular notion that the bears in U.S. habitats are suffering, although other populations of polar bears are struggling due to diminishing sea ice that they use to hunt sea mammals.

Other studies show the Chukchi polar bears are maintaining the same body fat they had 25 years ago; this study shows they have good  reproductive rates and cub survival.