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Election update: District 27 race is now 56 votes apart

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We have a nail-biter.

Rep. Lance Pruitt of East Anchorage leads challenger Liz Snyder by just 56 votes, after absentee ballots were counted for District 27 on Wednesday by the Division of Elections.

“The district is a cliff-hanger. It has been in the four of the last five elections, and nothing is new, it’s all a matter who got the last three people to show up to vote,” said Randy Ruedrich, who analyzes Alaska elections from a Republican perspective.

Must Read Alaska has learned there are fewer than 400 full-count absentee ballots and 50 questioned ballots to be counted for that district.

Several groups of ballots were counted from different areas of the state today. But no results were more interesting than District 27, where House Minority Leader Pruitt is fending off a second attempt by hardline Democrat Snyder.

Looking at the whole ballot, Pruitt is significantly outperforming the top of the ticket. Pruitt won more votes than Donald Trump Trump-3,975, and only 86 votes less than Biden-4,386. Pruitt did better than Democrat for Senate Al Gross-4,185, and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan-4,171. Pruitt also did better than Congressman Don Young.

Snyder now has 4,244 votes to Pruitt’s 4,300 votes.

The last batch to be counted in the district is thought to lean Republican, which may give Pruitt a few more votes. MRAK analysts believe he will win by about 70 votes.

In District 15, Republican David Nelson gained one vote in today’s count. All of his absentee ballots and questioned ballots are counted, although some may come in until the close of business on Nov. 13. Those are thought to lean Republican. Nelson is 116 votes ahead of Democrat Lyn Franks.

Statewide, in Congressman Don Young’s race, Democrat challenger Alyse Galvin needs 86% percent of remaining votes to win Alaska’s only congressional seat, after some 20,000 votes were counted today.

In the Senate race, Sen. Dan Sullivan race, Democrat Al Gross needs about 90 percent of the remaining votes to win.

With about 56,373 votes left to be counted, the gap that Gross would need to close is 51,222.

As of 8:20 pm on Wednesday, 289,185 ballots have been counted in the 2020 General Election.

Tshibaka: From a nation divided to a nation united

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A CALL FOR A PRUDENT PAUSE BEFORE DECLARING A WINNER

By KELLY TSHIBAKA

A house divided cannot stand. Today, our nation’s deep divisions threaten the integrity of the house our founding fathers risked their lives, fortunes, and sacred honor to design and build.

Months of violence, riots and destruction have ravaged our national house, which beltway pundits and politicians have characterized as a noble pursuit of social justice.

Even Kamala Harris and Joe Biden campaign staffers were complicit in the carnage by helping bail out rioters who had been arrested for the destruction and looting of minority-owned businesses in Minneapolis and St. Paul. 

Now, after our national election, Biden is encouraging peace and unity, but many of his supporters are continuing their divisive and destructive campaign.

Brandon Friedman, a columnist for the New York Daily News, called Trump supporters “deplorables” and discouraged reconciling with them. Michael Simon, who previously served in President Obama’s administration, is leading an effort to catalog all Trump supporters and hold them accountable. Wajahat Ali, a columnist for the New York Times, tweeted, “[The GOP] have to be broken, burned down and rebuilt. When Biden is in power treat them like the active threats to democracy they are. If those who committed crimes aren’t punished then they will be more emboldened.”

The foundations of our national house are imperiled by the divisive path Biden’s supporters continue to pursue. 

As of Tuesday, Nov. 10, some 48% of Americans had voted for President Trump, and the counting continues. That is a substantial number of “deplorable” Americans to “break,” “burn down,” “punish” and “catalog” for exercising their right to vote. 

The percentage of Americans voting for Trump also is not the substantial Biden victory many pollsters predicted. In fact, as of Tuesday night, in the 4 swing states of Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, there were less than 91,000 votes separating Biden and Trump. Indeed, the numbers are so close that even the political news site Real Clear Politics has retracted its decision that Biden is the president-elect. 

In short, at this juncture, the election officially (and legally) remains undetermined. Tensions are high, tempers are flaring, and our political fault lines run deep. 

But both Biden and Trump supporters can change the narrative; they still can restore a sense of national unity in which diversity of thought and differences of opinion result in healthy dialogues and debates, not in division and discord. As a starting point, Biden supporters can join Trump supporters in calling for election integrity. 

Americans in both major parties are willing to accept the outcome of elections, if they believe the process was fair and election laws were followed.

Unfortunately, because of the many credible allegations and documented incidents of fraud, voter oppression, and voting irregularities, half the country is skeptical of the media’s premature announcement that Biden is our president-elect.  

The sad reality is that whether Biden or Trump is officially declared the winner of this election, half the American people will never accept the result, unless the credible allegations of fraud, voter suppression, and voting irregularities are thoroughly investigated and resolved. 

For example, we must address the credible claims that Republican election monitors were barred from observing ballot counting in several states; that Pennsylvania election officials defied law and a court order requiring them to allow Republican poll watchers to observe the ballot counting process; that a glitch in a Michigan county voting software program resulted in 6,000 Trump votes being tallied as Biden votes (that same system was used in more than 40 other Michigan counties and in roughly 30 states).

We must address claims that, according to a sworn affidavit by a Michigan poll worker, election officials instructed her and other poll workers to backdate thousands of absentee ballots; that, according to a Michigan poll challenger, tens of thousands of unsecured and unsealed ballots arrived in vehicles with out-of-state license plates after the election deadline, and all of them were attributed to Democratic candidates; and that thousands of deceased and former residents voted in swing states, including over 11,000 voters in Michigan who were deceased or 100+ years old, but not listed as living centenarians. 

For the sake of unity and peace in our nation, and for the sake of preserving the integrity of our democracy and electoral process, both Biden and Trump supporters should join in calling for a prudent pause in declaring a winner until these myriad matters are adjudicated and resolved. This is a significant moment, one in which “We the People” can model for our leaders what it means to be a house united.

My hope and prayer are that Americans, and Alaskans, of all political persuasions will move forward together, honoring the rule of law and supporting a peaceful, transparent, and just resolution of this election controversy. That is how our house divided can once again become a house, and a nation, united. 

The views expressed here are the writer’s in her personal capacity and do not reflect her role as the Commissioner of the Department of Administration.

NBC, WaPo decision desks call Alaska races: Sullivan and Trump for the win

CONGRESSMAN DON YOUNG MAKES HISTORY WITH 25TH TERM

The mainstream media has called President Donald Trump and Sen. Dan Sullivan as winners of their respective races in Alaska.

NBC and the Washington Post both announced these races on Wednesday morning, after results were released late Tuesday night. About one-third of the vote is yet to be counted in the state.

Although Congressman Don Young received more votes than the president or Sullivan at this point, the news media did not call that election. Young won 150,443 votes, to Alyse Galvin’s 108,269, making Young the highest vote-getter in the state this election, so far.

It appears Young will be elected to his 25th term in office, making history for Alaska once again. He has served since 1973.

At the latest count from Nov. 10, Sen. Sullivan had 149,669 votes to Alan Gross’ 97,608, a crushing 57-37 landslide. More votes are expected to be counted that will close that margin but are not likely to overtake it.

Gross has not yet made a concession statement. On Twitter on Tuesday night, Gross wrote: “More than 100,000 ballots left to count. 30% of the vote not counted out there! We can win this.”

Like Gross, Trump has also not conceded defeat, although he has an uphill battle through the courts, should he choose that path.

In Alaska, Trump won 148,624 votes to Joe Biden’s 102,080, a 56-39 victory. Alaska’s three electoral votes will go to Trump.

Late-night count: 21K more ballots finished, District 25 flips to Democrat Schrage

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Another 21,000 ballots were counted and posted on the Division of Elections website after 11:30 pm on Tuesday.

263,645 ballots have been counted. While Ballot Measure 2 lost some more ground, Rep. Mel Gillis in District 25 saw his lead disappear to Indie-Democrat Calvin Schrage.

Here’s where some of the races stand as of midnight, Nov. 10:

Ballot Measure 1 is losing 60.70% to 39.30%. Earlier in the night it was 61.58% to 38.42%. This is the measure that would increase taxes on oil. The proponents would need to get 75 of the remaining vote to win, and 25 percent of the remaining vote is Republican.

Ballot Measure 2 is losing with 47.51% for and 52.49% against. Earlier in the night, it was 46.69-53.31%. In other words, the “no” side is slipping.

This is the measure that would scramble Alaska elections into a ranked-choice system and jungle primary.

All results here.


Biden / Harris had 64,246 on election night, now at 102,080 votes, 38.91%

Trump / Pence had 118,844 on election night, now at 148,624 votes, 56.65%

Of note, in 2016, Hillary Clinton received 36.55% of the vote, and Donald Trump received 51.28% in the final count of the 318,608 votes counted. In 2020, Trump is doing even better in Alaska than he did four years ago.


Al Gross had 61,364 on election night, now at 97,608, 37.45%.

Sen. Dan Sullivan had 119,174 on election night, now at 149,669, 57.42%.

Of note, this is Sen. Sullivan’s first run for reelection. In 2014, he won against one-term incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Begich, 48-46%.


Alyse Galvin had 69,674 on election night, now at 108,269, 41.71%.

Congressman Don Young had 119,999 on election night, now at 150,443, 57.95%.

Of note, in 2016, Steve Lindbeck received 36.02% of the vote and Congressman Don Young received 50.32% of the vote of the 308,198 votes counted. In 2018, Young won 53.08% to Alyse Galvin’s 46.50%.

Tonight Galvin needs more than 73 percent of the remaining ballots to win against the Dean of the House. 


District 1: The race tightened up between Rep. Bart LeBon and Christopher Quist, now is 55-44%, but LeBon is ahead, 3,720 to 2,989.


District 4: Republican Keith Kurber vs. Democrat Rep. Grier Hopkins. Hopkins is in the lead 55-44, with 6,006 to 4,781.


District 5: Republican challenger Kevin McKinley fell behind Democrat Rep. Adam Wool. Wool leads 53-47, 4,289 to 3,807.


District 15: Republican David Nelson leads Democrat Lyn Franks, 51-49, 2,321 to 2,206.


District 16: Republican challenger Paul Bauer is losing to Democrat Rep. Ivy Spohnholz; she is ahead 53-40, 3,778 to 2,890.


District 21: Democrat Rep. Matt Claman has the lead 61-38, over Lynette Largent. 5,178 to 3,241.


District 23: Kathy Henslee, the Republican was leading Democrat Rep. Chris Tuck, but Tuck is now ahead 47-44, 3,231 to 2,976.


District 25: Democrat Calvin Schrage has pulled ahead of Republican Rep. Mel Gillis 52-48, 4,316 to 3,936.


District 27: Republican Rep. Lance Pruitt still has 61 percent. This district had no votes counted today, so is the same.


District 31: Republican Rep. Sarah Vance vs. challenger Kelly Cooper. No votes counted today.


Senate Seat B: Republican Rob Myers, 10,169; Marna Sanford, 7,047.

The numbers from earlier in the night at this link:

Murkowski, Romney, Collins and Sasse congratulate Biden

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Four moderate Republican senators have put out statements congratulating Joe Biden on his election victory.

Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah, Ben Sasse of Nebraska, and Susan Collins of Maine, broke away from the rest of the Republican senators, who have urged President Donald Trump to not concede until matters involving reported widespread fraud are resolved, or at least until legal challenges and recounts are settled.

“Tonight, he declared victory and pledged to be a president who represents all Americans,” Murkowski wrote over the weekend. “I congratulate President-elect Biden and Vice President-elect Harris and will be ready to work with their administration when it takes office.”

“We may not always agree, I will work with them to do what is right for Alaska—just as I will continue to emphasize collaboration and bipartisanship with my colleagues in a narrowly divided Senate,” Murkowski said.

Congressman Don Young also congratulated Biden on his win. “President-elect Biden has tremendous work ahead of him. Today, a long, hard-fought, and contentious presidential election appears to be behind us. It is time to put the election behind us, and come together to work for a better tomorrow for our nation.”

Gov. Mike Dunleavy was more circumspect: “I for one will support our President’s efforts to ensure that the election is completed with integrity. Let us hope and pray that it is.”

Election update: Young, Sullivan still far ahead, as both ballot measures failing

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With 192,918 votes already counted before today, the Division of Elections counted more ballots from various districts in the state. This story will be updated.

Must Read Alaska has learned that over 95,000 votes remain to be counted.

The total ballots counted is now at 242,665, and the first numbers have been released to the Division of Elections website, with more on the way later tonight, Nov. 10.

Ballot Measure 1 is losing 61.58% to 38.42% with 234,848 votes counted. This is the measure that would increase taxes on oil. The proponents would need to get 75 of the remaining vote to win, and 25 percent of the remaining vote is Republican. The latest tranche of ballot counting broke 51-49 for the measure. The “no” team lost only 800 votes in tonight’s count. The 54,000 vote lead was eroded to the point where “the fat lady has sung.”

Ballot Measure 2 is losing 53.31% to 46.69% with 234,272 votes counted. This is the measure that would scramble Alaska elections into a ranked-choice system and jungle primary. This ballot measure could end up passing because there are a lot of votes still to be counted and it is doing better than some people expected. It’s still losing but among the votes counted today, 18% were “yes” votes. If it continues in this vein, Ballot Measure 2 will pass with 3,600 votes.


Biden / Harris had 64,246 on election night, now at 91,497 votes, 37.9%

Trump / Pence had 118,844 on election night, now at 139,264 votes, 57.67%

Of note, in 2016, Hillary Clinton received 36.55% of the vote, and Donald Trump received 51.28% in the final count of the 318,608 votes counted. In 2020, Trump is doing even better in Alaska than he did four years ago.


Al Gross had 61,364 on election night, now at 87,445, 36%.

Sen. Dan Sullivan had 119,174 on election night, now at 140,440, 58%.

Of note, this is Sen. Sullivan’s first run for reelection. In 2014, he won against one-term incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Begich, 48-46%.


Alyse Galvin had 69,674 on election night, now at 97,420, 40.69%.

Congressman Don Young had 119,999 on election night, now 141,181, 59%.

Of note, in 2016, Steve Lindbeck received 36.02% of the vote and Congressman Don Young received 50.32% of the vote of the 308,198 votes counted. In 2018, Young won 53.08% to Alyse Galvin’s 46.50%.

Tonight she needs nearly 73 percent of the remaining ballots to win against the Dean of the House.


District 1: The race tightened up between Rep. Bart LeBon and Christopher Quist, now is 55-44%, but LeBon still is 700+ votes ahead.


District 4: Republican Keith Kurber vs. Democrat Rep. Grier Hopkins. Hopkins has flipped into the lead 52-47, with about 343 votes separating them.


District 5: Republican challenger Kevin McKinley fell behind Democrat Rep. Adam Wool. Wool leads 51-49, with 154 votes separating them.


District 15: Republican David Nelson leads Democrat Lyn Franks, 52-48, and is ahead by 146 votes in this low-turnout district.


District 16: Republican challenger Paul Bauer is now losing to Democrat Rep. Ivy Spohnholz; she is ahead 53-40, with a 978-vote lead.


District 21: Democrat Rep. Matt Claman recaptured the lead 61-38, over Lynette Largent,


District 23: Kathy Henslee, the Republican was leading Democrat Rep. Chris Tuck, but he is now ahead 48-43. Tuck is up by 313 votes.


District 25: Republican Rep. Mel Gillis still leads against challenger Calvin Schrage, 51-49; 166 votes separate them. About 2,000 votes remain in this race. Schrage could close the gap.


District 27: Republican Rep. Lance Pruitt still has 61 percent. This district had no votes counted today, so is the same.


District 31: Republican Rep. Sarah Vance vs. challenger Kelly Cooper. No votes counted today.


Biden’s transition teams have strong Obama credentials, begin work with no Alaskans to be seen

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The transition teams for the possible Biden-Harris Administration have been published, and it’s not looking good for Alaska. Must Read Alaska has reviewed the transition teams and hasn’t found a single Alaskan on the list. But it’s early. There’s still time for Alaska Democrats to get involved.

The transition teams gather resumes and start scouting for true believers to put into key appointments throughout the government. As they do their work, another group of partisans are embedded in agencies, often called “beachhead teams,” to ensure the departing administration doesn’t get away with too much during the transition.

For Alaska, the Department of Interior and the EPA are always top concerns.

For the Interior transition team, the transition team reads like the yearbook from the Obama Administration’s DOI team:

Kevin Washburn, Team Lead, Dean of the University of Iowa College of Law, was appointed by President Obama as the Assistant Secretary of Indian Affairs (BIA) at the U.S. Department of the Interior. He served in that role until January of 2016.
Bob Anderson, Harvard Law School, Oneida Indian Nation Visiting Professor of Law. Specializes in tribal sovereignty.
Bret Birdsong, The Nevada System of Higher Education, he was appointed by the Obama administration to serve as deputy solicitor for land resources at the U.S. Department of Interior in Washington D.C.
Shannon Estenoz, The Everglades Foundation, was President Obama’s federal point person for Everglades restoration.
Chris Goranson, Carnegie Mellon University, The Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy, he was residential Innovation Fellow in the Obama Administration.
Janie Hipp, Native American Agriculture Fund. Hipp served under Barack Obama as the director of the Office of Tribal Relations of the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Kate Kelly, Center for American Progress, she served in the Obama administration at the Interior Department.
Elizabeth Klein, New York University, School of Law, State Energy & Environmental Impact Center. She was former deputy assistant secretary, policy, management & budget in the Department of Interior under the Obama Administration and worked at DOI in the Clinton Administration. At her work at NYU, with Director David Hayes, the two have sued the Department of Interior over Arctic lease sales.
Amanda Leiter, American University, Washington College of Law, Professor of Law and the Director of the Program on Environmental and Energy Law.
Molly McUsic, Wyss Foundation,
Maggie Thomas, Evergreen Action, Obama Administration at the White House Council on Environmental Quality 
Tanya Trujillo, Colorado River Sustainability Campaign

At the EPA transition team, a very strong bias emerges toward Obama-era policies, led by a Vice President of Earthjustice:

Patrice Simms, Team LeadEarthjustice. Former Deputy Assistant Attorney General in the U.S. Department of Justice’s Environment and Natural Resources Division.
Amanda AguirreBlue Crab Strategies, Director of Public Engagement & Environmental Education, US Environmental Protection Agency
Ann DunkinDell Technologies, Environmental Protection Agency CIO under President Obama
Matt FritzLatham & Watkins, LLP, senior advisor to the EPA Administrator during Obama Administration.
Lisa GarciaGrist Magazine, Inc., led the EPA’s environmental-justice work under President Obama, 
Cynthia GilesHarvard Environmental and Energy Law Program, former Assistant Administrator for EPA’s Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance for the entire Obama Presidency
Joseph GoffmanHarvard Law School, Associate Assistant Administrator for Climate/Senior Counsel, Office of Air and Radiation, US Environmental Protection Agency
Ken KopocisAmerican University, Washington College of Law, former assistant administrators of the EPA under Obama.
Michael McCabeSelf-employed, former Regional Administrator, and later Deputy Administrator of the United States Environmental Protection Agency, Clinton, Bush Administration
Billie McGranePA Democratic Party
Alejandra NunezThe Sierra Club
Luseni PiehSelf-employed, Deputy Chief of Staff for Programs and Strategic Initiatives at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for Obama.

Reinbold wonders if Dunleavy should step aside, calls his mandates ‘socialist’

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By DAN FAGAN

Republican Sen. Lora Reinbold is measured, calm, mild-mannered, and agreeable – said no one ever. Reinbold is a pint-sized fighter. But when she sets her sights on you – watch out – she’s swinging for the knockout. 

Reinbold has launched an all-out jihad against fellow conservative and Mat-Su Valley Republican, Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Reinbold has consistently badgered “Big Mike” with over-the-top rhetoric for most of his term. Reinbold has appointed herself as Dunleavy’s chief antagonist and most formidable political threat from the right.   

Will she run against him in the primary? As Gov. Sarah Palin used to say, “you betcha!” 

On Sunday, Reinbold posted on her Facebook page a post describing the governor’s extension of the COVID-19 Emergency Declaration as socialist.

“It looks like Commission (sic), Commander Crum, and Gov. D hired Dr. Zink to tell a story of why medical tyranny is so important for Alaska via health alerts and mandates,” posted Reinbold. 

“Each time I read his (Dunleavy’s) March 11 ‘Disaster Declaration’ I now see it as their way to fear monger, using COVID-19 as their front, to gain immense control over our lives.”

But has Dunleavy really tried to gain “immense control over our lives?” 

If anything, his extending the COVID-19 Emergency Declaration frees up health care providers, and does not limit the private sector’s ability to function or even flourish, unlike the unreasonable, harsh, and job-killing restrictions put in place by Anchorage city leaders. 

Dunleavy, much like President Donald Trump, has allowed local government leaders to determine how to deal with the spread of the coronavirus. 

His emergency declaration extension allows hospitals continued flexibility and the ability to overcome burdensome regulations when treating the virus. It allows for more telehealth instead of in-person visit requirements. The extension also allows hospitals to set up new temporary facilities to house patients if they become overcrowded. 

The extension also keeps open the Joint Incident Command Center and keeps federal funds flowing into the state to help with dealing with the virus.  

There are also practical benefits to extending the extension. It allows businesses the ability to sell alcohol curbside, so customers don’t need to come inside.  

“The new disaster declaration will continue to provide certainty to Alaska’s health care system and Alaskans during this pandemic while avoiding any disruption to the state’s economy,” said Jeff Turner, the governor’s deputy press secretary.

There’s not a single component of Dunleavy’s disaster declaration that hurts the private sector. Yet Reinbold makes it seem like the governor and his team are an Alaska version of Bernie Sanders. 

“Sadly, they have unleashed a constitutional, economic, educational, and emotional crisis on Alaskans,” Reinbold posted on Facebook. ”Many of the mandates and health alerts are not only ridiculous, but they are scientifically unsubstantiated, many are unconstitutional and it’s easy to predict, they have created more harm than good.” 

Reinbold even went to the extreme of asking if its time for Zink, Crum, and Dunleavy to “step aside.” 

Reinbold also called for the governor to “ask God’s forgiveness and forgiveness of Alaskans for the damage done to Alaska and Alaskans.” 

To say Reinbold is prone to fits of wildly emotional hysterics is an understatement. 

The truth is, Dunleavy has been much more measured in his approach to COVID-19 than most governors. 33 governors have issued statewide face mask mandates. Other governors have limited the size of gatherings including for churches. Dunleavy has done none of that. 

The governor does not have the authority to stop the over the top tyranny placed on the private sector by the hard-core Leftists running the city of Anchorage. 

Even conservative Assembly member Jamie Allard agrees the governor is not to blame for the assault on the freedoms of Anchorage citizens. Allard has criticized the governor in the past for not speaking out more about the issue. But unlike Reinbold, her criticism ends there. 

“Anchorage municipalities extreme mandates and their enforcements have proven ineffective,” writes Allard. “Anchorage should follow Gov. Dunleavy’s lead when he stated Alaska is open for business.”  

If Reinbold was really upset about constitutional rights being violated, she should funnel her rage-filled Facebook posts toward the real culprits, the Anchorage Assembly’s liberal majority and mayor. 

But that wouldn’t help her in the Republican primary two years from now when she runs against Dunleavy. 

Dan Fagan hosts the number one rated morning drive talk show in Alaska on Newsradio 650 KENI. Dan splits his time between Anchorage and New Orleans. 

MRAK’s crystal ball: Sullivan to win by 7 points over Gross

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Based on Election Day returns, the number of uncounted absentee and early ballots, and what is known about these voters, Alan Gross has no realistic path to victory.

Some 62,000 votes will be counted and announced on Tuesday, Nov. 10, after 5 pm. The votes will be announced in two batches, one at 5 pm, and one much later in the evening, when election officials finish their work for the day.
 
Assuming there are approximately 147,600 ballots, and 25% are from registered Republicans, and another 25% are from registered Democrats, Gross would need to win more than 90% of remaining ballots cast by registered Undeclared, non-partisan, and third party voters.
 
This figure does not take into account the third-party candidate John Wayne Howe – who took approximately 5% of the vote on election day.
 
When all ballots are counted, the MRAK crystal ball predicts that Dan Sullivan will beat Gross decisively:
 
Current Vote Totals:
 
·Dan Sullivan: 118,978 (62.22%)
·Al Gross: 61,362 (32.09%)
·John Wayne Howe: 10,532 (5.51%)
 
Senator Sullivan leads Al Gross by a resounding 57,616 votes.
 
Based on information from the Alaska Division of Elections on Nov. 6, of the 131,536 uncounted absentee and early ballots:
o   34,257 ballots cast by registered Republicans
o   30,063 ballots cast by registered Democrats
o   67,216 ballots cast by registered Undeclared, Nonpartisan, and others.
 
If all registered Republicans vote for Dan Sullivan:
 
· Dan Sullivan will have: 153,235
· Gross would need to receive over 97% of the remaining 97,279 ballots from registered Democrats, undeclared, nonpartisan and other ballots.
 
Election Projection:

If Sullivan receives 20% of remaining ballots and John Wayne Howe receives 3% of undeclared, nonpartisan and other ballots (67,216 ballots):
 
13,443 for Sullivan 166,678 vote total
51.66%, a win by +7.3%

81,820 for Gross
143,182 vote total – 44.36%

10,532 for Howe
12,906 vote total – 3.99%
 
(+7.3%) win for Sullivan.