According to predictive modeling from the Economist magazine, Donald Trump already has Alaska’s three electoral votes locked up. Trump is 99% likely to win Alaska in November.
The analysis also shows that Trump has about a 3 in 4 chance of winning the national Electoral College, while Joe Biden has a 1 in 4 chance. The model, which is updated daily, shows Trump with 313 electoral votes, and Biden with 228. The winning candidate needs 270.
In six swing states, with 77 electoral votes in play, Trump is now leading by a few points. They are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia.
In 2016, Trump carried five of the six states, while in 2020, Biden won them all. As of July 8, 2024, Trump is leading in all of them as his popularity has only soared since he was convicted of a felony in a New York courtroom on May 31.
Check out the Economist predictive charts and graphs at this link.
The Economist’s model of America’s presidential election estimates each major candidate’s chances of winning each state and the overall electoral college.
The model was developed with scholars at Columbia University, and combines national and state-level polls with fundamental data about the state of the economy, historical voting patterns, and the demographics of each state to predict the likelihood of various outcomes of the race.
The model constructs thousands of scenarios, each one containing different variables that account for things like polling bias and other characteristics.
For more details on exactly how the model works, read the full methodology.
A forgone conclusion no doubt.
I think there is a 99% chance Trump won’t win the election.
I think there is a 100% chance that every single MRAK reader already knew you were going to write that.
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Com’n Greg. Toss us a curveball sometime.
I’m a straightshooter. You know that. You know, we share many policies. I just don’t like gropers and liars.
You are wasting everyone’s time on MRAK, including your own.
As are you. I’m just keeping you honest.
You could not keep a used car salesman dishonest, what makes you think you are keeping anyone, even me, “honest?”
Because you can’t argue successfully against the facts.
As soon as I see you actually state a fact, we can test that theory.
Thankfully your governor doesnt think like you.
But he does. He’s even more conservative than I am and that’s saying something.
Where is that poll that says Hillary as VP and Kamala for POTUS will landslide Trump? Still waiting…
After your last question, I went back and checked just to make sure I wasn’t seeing things and as suspected I saw six or seven news organizations that reported it. Do you know how to look up stuff on the interweb?
So, you do not actually have an answer…
Got it.
Sure do I prefer a to let those who bragg present their research. Do you really believe polls?
Bendixon and Amandi Poll given to Politico. Choke on it since you’re so computer literate inept
Politico?
Otherwise known as Obama’s typewriter?
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That like expecting a balanced and rational discussion on guns from Michael Bloomberg.
Considering Biden’s last two remaining braincells committed hara-kiri on live television a couple weeks ago, its not exactly an earth shattering prediction now, is it?
Yet we have Murkowski and peltola. Explain that…..
RCV
Until we no longer use the voting machines in Alaska, no one running for election is a for certain thing or ensures we have fair elections. Anchorage was looking into the voting machines, then for some reason the whole issue went crickets?
This also just in….water is wet.
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