Economist magazine says Trump has 99% chance of winning in Alaska


According to predictive modeling from the Economist magazine, Donald Trump already has Alaska’s three electoral votes locked up. Trump is 99% likely to win Alaska in November.

The analysis also shows that Trump has about a 3 in 4 chance of winning the national Electoral College, while Joe Biden has a 1 in 4 chance. The model, which is updated daily, shows Trump with 313 electoral votes, and Biden with 228. The winning candidate needs 270.

In six swing states, with 77 electoral votes in play, Trump is now leading by a few points. They are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia.

In 2016, Trump carried five of the six states, while in 2020, Biden won them all. As of July 8, 2024, Trump is leading in all of them as his popularity has only soared since he was convicted of a felony in a New York courtroom on May 31.

Since the May 31 felony conviction of former President Donald Trump, his popularity has soared.

Check out the Economist predictive charts and graphs at this link.

The Economist’s model of America’s presidential election estimates each major candidate’s chances of winning each state and the overall electoral college.

The model was developed with scholars at Columbia University, and combines national and state-level polls with fundamental data about the state of the economy, historical voting patterns, and the demographics of each state to predict the likelihood of various outcomes of the race.

The model constructs thousands of scenarios, each one containing different variables that account for things like polling bias and other characteristics.

For more details on exactly how the model works, read the full methodology.


  1. Considering Biden’s last two remaining braincells committed hara-kiri on live television a couple weeks ago, its not exactly an earth shattering prediction now, is it?

  2. Until we no longer use the voting machines in Alaska, no one running for election is a for certain thing or ensures we have fair elections. Anchorage was looking into the voting machines, then for some reason the whole issue went crickets?


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