What is Gross' realistic path to victory over Sullivan? 70% of the uncounted vote - Must Read Alaska
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Tuesday, January 19, 2021
HomePoliticsWhat is Gross’ realistic path to victory over Sullivan? 70% of the uncounted vote

What is Gross’ realistic path to victory over Sullivan? 70% of the uncounted vote


Alan Gross says he is sure he will win the Senate against Dan Sullivan. In a video statement on Wednesday, posted on Twitter, the Democrats’ candidate reassured his supporters that with 40 percent of the vote yet to be counted, he’s confident those votes are for him.

But are they?

Various media reports give differing totals for the number of votes yet to be counted. Some put the estimate at 120,000, others are assuming 150,000.

There are already 192,918 ballots already counted, and they went 119,000 to Sullivan, 61,362 to Gross. That means Sullivan has over 61 percent of the vote, for early voting up until the Thursday before Election Day, combined with all of the votes cast on Election Day itself, Nov. 3.

In the 2016 General Election, 321,271 total votes were cast. This includes all votes — early, absentee, and day-of votes.

So far this year, 173,712 votes have already been counted. If 2020 turnout is anything like 2016 turnout, that means about 147,600 remain, or 46 percent of the expected turnout.

Gross would be right, if he used this presumption, that over 40 percent of the vote is yet to be counted.

Gross also knows that those 147,600 ballots were aggressively scavenged by his field team from the Lower 48, flown up and housed in local hotels, from where they fanned across the state with smart tablets, knocking on doors and harvesting ballots from voters who are modeled as liberals.

To get across the finish line, Gross needs 57,638, presuming that Sullivan has all the votes he is ever going to get, and that Sullivan won’t get a single vote more in the the 147,600 outstanding ballots.

But that’s not how it will work, of course.

Let’s presume the 147,600 ballots split 50-50. In that scenario, Sullivan gets 193,400 votes, and Gross gets 135,162 votes, still far short of a win for Gross.

Now let’s presume that the 147,600 ballots break two-thirds for Gross. Now, Sullivan would have 168,200 votes, and Gross would have 159,762. Close, but no cigar. Gross still comes up about 8,438 votes short, or 6 percent shy of pulling even.

In order to win, Gross needs well over 70 percent of the remaining ballots, including all absentees and the votes of people who cast ballots from Friday through Monday before Election Day. It’s a big lift, but Gross thinks he has this in the bag.

Of the uncounted early and absentee votes, approximately 30,000 are from registered Republicans and 28,000 registered Democrats. If you assume that Democrats will vote for Gross, and Republicans for Sullivan, then Al Gross has to get 85 percent of undeclared and nonpartisans.

But what if there are only 120,000 remaining votes? The calculus is similar.

And what about the third person in the race, the Alaska Independence Party candidate? All indications are that John Wayne Howe is actually pulling votes from Gross, not Sullivan.

If by magic, Gross can go from his current 32% popularity to 70% of the vote, he can win this thing. Otherwise, he’s just spinning another tall tale for his Outside donors, while his workforce gets back on the plane headed south.

Donations Welcome


Written by

Suzanne Downing had careers in business and journalism before serving as the Director of Faith and Community-based Initiatives for Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and returning to Alaska to serve as speechwriter for Gov. Sean Parnell. Born on the Oregon coast, she moved to Alaska in 1969.

Latest comments

  • There must be a millions of dollars at stake in this and like races.

  • Yes, he’s counting on those 100’s of false mail in ballots showing up here too, of course in his favor, as well as Galvin’s, and even Biden’s albeit we have little say in the Presidential election finality in Alaska. Every state in the union needs to be investigated for election fraud.

  • Maybe Gross forgot he was running for senate in Alaska and not Michigan where a magical 130000 votes appeared over night for the Democrat.

    Biden admitted to putting together a voter fraud organization.

  • Where’s the grizzly bear when you really need him?

  • He is banking on the ballot manufacturing machine that Soros funded and is at work in PA, WI, MI, AZ, GA, and NV. Problem for him is that Democrats don’t control the counting in Alaska.

  • Apparently Ephraim’s people didn’t grease the right person in charge of elections in the SOA.

  • This is insane. They need to redo this whole election in person. How can any of us have faith in a system now so easily manipulated?

  • Time for gasbag Al to prescribe himself a large opioid cocktail.

  • For Gross to make the claim that ‘uncounted’ ballots will deliver him the win over Dan Sullivan says that Gross is depending on the same tactics that leftist, socialist democrats are using to try and steal the election in WI, PA, MI, MN, VA, GA and the rest of key battleground and swing states. The only chance Gross would have is to follow their example of cheating, lying, fraudulent voting and ‘harvesting’ ballots with pay-offs for voters voting the way the socialist criminals/fools pay them to. One example I read about was an expenditure (pay-off) of $55,000 for about 500 votes. The going rate is as much as $200 cash per vote in most cases. Not exactly the American way. It seems armed conflict may not be far off over the farce of electing Biden and crew, who couldn’t entice more rally goers than a couple dozen, while President Trump has tens of thousands at every rally. The vote is completely our of gear where in favor of Biden in any venue.
    I am very proud of conservative voters in Alaska. The ‘silent majority’ is no longer silent.

  • Thank you Mr Gross for that insight on the ballot harvesting of mail in ballots, which was the modius of operdi of the Democratic Machine across America. Caught the Republicans flat footed and unprepared. Hence Gross’s confidence in his statement “until the last ballot is counted”.
    Nationally Unfortunately for Mr Trump it does not look good.
    Between the Media,Banks,Big Tech,China Flu, and good old fashion Democrate cheating it appears it is a bridge to far. Small wonder after all Obama is the first President NOT to leave the Capital after his term in office. Why? Simple the deep State of Obama never stopped.
    With many examples of information leaks with no accountability from operatives within the Federal government subverting Trump with impunity. Trump could never stop looking over his shoulder.

    The Democratic Party that I once belong to as a proud Union member is long gone. Trump obviously made a major shift in what the banner of the Republican Party represents. All the big money spent across the Nation for all Senate races is record setting. Just witness what we as Alaskans were exposed too. Wall Street money from the Billionairs who profit from the sweetheart deals from China just had to much to lose with Trump. One only has to look at the money the Democratic s raised in the closing days of the election.

    Trump will be a tough act to follow. On the four nominations for a Nobel Peace prize alone, for something he actually accomplished. American got a taste of Donald Trump and the working class, and minority’s liked it. Sad thing of all of this is that after all of the corruption that this fine man had to endure, he fought to the bitter end. America truly is run by the Elite class, which is now the Democratic Party of billionaires.

    So set tight Alaska the political fireworks are not even close to over. Biden s idea of returning to the olden days of unfettered corruption is not going to go over as before. Fortunately the Senate and a predictable Republican landslide in two years will stave off radical efforts of our new California President. After all Biden will be Impeached by the Senate who will be looking for blood after the vicious legal Presidential battle that is coming. A
    What will we be left with, the new face of America, an unelected Vice President that almost everyone hates.
    Why does everyone dislike Cali girl, because it is easy not to like her, kinda like Gross.

  • The only way this — can win is by voter fraud

  • Is it 4 am in Anchorage yet? I’m sure someone can find a million votes or two lying around somewhere.

  • Gross is a poster child for a delusional Liberal. Hope all the millions liberals threw at Gross for a total loss paid off 😂🤣😃

  • He should dress up for his acceptance speech and wait outside. Like, in CA.

  • Gross, born in the wake of an Avalanche, just got buried. Despite his snow job advertising, fueled by enormous sums of Schumer ca$h.
    Sadly for Allan and his mentor Chuck Schumer, the lesson here is that $ money really cannot buy you love, or net enough votes to get a US Senate seat.

  • Fraud is always the fallback position for all Democrats.

  • Big Al the bear doctor was standing on a corner waving signs with his family and that was it, 4-5 of them. All the big outside money might have bought him a few votes and probably a couple boxes of fraudulent ballots but it didn’t buy him this election. Seriously the guy was on the news and had only a few family members with him. Even the local liberal newspaper wouldn’t support him.

  • Soros is sending a cargo plane loaded with “harvested” ballots. The league of Women Voters will be counting them shortly…………

  • And we are to believe that Biden got more votes than Obama and they are still counting. Nothing fishy at all…..

  • Suzanne
    Point of clarification please:
    You wrote that 192,918 ballots have been counted. In the next paragraph you stated that 173,712 votes have been counted, which is less than the vote total for both candidates combined. Can you please explain the numbers.
    Thank you

  • How did Trump suddenly lose his lead in Michigan? Tens of thousands of ballots mysteriously appeared in the dead of night all marked for Biden! Gross is only relying on 70% for the win. The Dems have a political machine in Anchorage – I hope someone is watching the vote counters.
    Josef Stalin infamously once said that, “Voters don’t count, it’s the people who count the vote that matter”.

    • thefederalist.com/2020/11/04/yes-democrats-are-trying-to-steal-the-election-in-michigan-wisconsin-and-pennsylvania/

      Then, something strange happened in the dead of the night. In both Michigan and Wisconsin, vote dumps early Wednesday morning showed 100 percent of the votes going for Biden and zero percent—that’s zero, so not even one vote—for Trump.

      In Michigan, Biden somehow got 138,339 votes and Trump got none, zero, in an overnight vote-dump.

  • ‘D’ is for Democrat… ‘D’ is also for Delusional, which defines the psychological status of democrats. He should return to his California mansion basement and watch the movie ‘From Noon Till Three’ over and over again. Thankfully we will not send him to DC

  • GROSS just go back to California stay there

  • The votes from beyond the grave have not yet been counted, and they voted 99% for Gross.

    • Only 99% that’s a little low… I would wager on at least 99.999999999999% dead vote for Al “Democrat” Gross…

  • I’m wondering how these absentee ballots could effect local races?

  • The people who cast the votes don’t decide an election, the people who count the votes do.

    Joseph Stalin

    • “He who does not work shall not eat” Lenin
      “He who does not obey shall not eat” Stalin

  • Sounds like he has a secret that would clarify the national election results. I will pray for someone involved in this scam to grow a conscience and spill the beans, for the sake of our country.

  • Even his dead, former patients voted for him.

    • ….you mean the ones HE killed? That’s prescriptive loyalty for ya.

  • Productive Alaskans have no idea how their vote counting works, why their votes should take so long to count, or what –exactly– protects their vote-counting process from corruption happening in other states.
    Current events give us good reason to believe vote counting is profoundly corrupted in other states, but we don’t know what protects Alaskan votes from similar corruption.
    On Dan Fagan’s talk show this morning, people who voted on election-day in person recounted putting their ballots in a machine which rejected their ballots so often that an on-site troubleshooter had to intervene.
    But people who voted -early- in person simply put their ballots in a box
    …which means early, in-person voters will never know whether their ballots were later put through the same machine … to be randomly, erroneously rejected this time without their knowledge!
    Recalling the successful Great Alaska LeDoux Vote Experiment, we don’t even know whether the Dearly Departed turnout broke as enthusiatically for Gross as it did for LeDoux!
    With respect, Madam Editor, we Deplorables aren’t allowed to know how it will work.
    But we have our suspicions…

  • I early-voted Friday 2020, Oct. 30. Mine is one of the 147,600 outstanding ballots and will not be counted until Saturday 2020, Nov. 7. I voted Sullivan, Young, and no on both initiatives. It seems reasonable to assume a normal percentage of conservative voters did the same as I did.

  • Elections in this country will never be the same again. It’s amazing to me how anytime a batch of ballots show up, in the dead of the night, how all those votes strangely go to the Democrat nominee. I remember what happened in Minnesota not so long ago when Al Franken suddenly received a surge of votes that were found in the trunk of a car and was enough to propel him to victory. Funny how that works eh?

  • Despite the probability that those of us who don’t want him anywhere near government could be smeared as “anti-Semites”, this LOSER should just pack up his overnight bag and head back to California where he can be among other losers with similar warped views.

    ‘Twould be nice if he took Alice Galvin along with him…

  • This will not end well for Dems. Midterms will bring us a House majority and grow our majority in the Senate. And guess who will run in 2024? Trump. It will be sweet.

    • And with Kamala in charge we know the counting will be fair.

  • Candidate Party Total
    Gross, Al DEM 61,362 32.09%
    Howe, John Wayne AIP 10,532 5.51%
    Sullivan, Dan REP 118,978 62.22%
    Write-in 358 0.19%
    Total Votes 191,230
    Times Cast 192,918 / 595,647 32.39%

  • Yeah…..pretty uncomfortable for GOP. Alaskan independents are pretty hard to predict. R, D and U voters all supported Lisa a few years back. My thought is the egregious Bristol Bay ploy/gambit/debacle by Sen. Sullivan will be his undoing. Let’s just wait and see how many votes will take to get Dr. Gross into his seat. I’m guessing about 152. Upsetting the balance of senate power. Sweet dreams everyone.

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