Tshibaka releases poll showing she can win in ranked choice voting this November


Kelly Tshibaka, who is challenging Sen. Lisa Murkowski this year, says she has a clear shot at winning in November. Her pollster, Cygnal, says that:

  • Tshibaka carries 84% of the Republican vote and leads with both men and women.
  • On the final ranked-choice results, Tshibaka prevails by 2%.
  • Tshibaka trounces Murkowski with both Trump Republicans and Traditional Republicans.
  • A strong majority of undecided voters have an unfavorable opinion of Murkowski.

Alaskans will be using a confusing election system this year, brought to them by Ballot Measure 2. In the primary, all candidates go on the same ballot; Ballot Measure 2 did away with the Republican primary ballot that people could choose if they were registered Republicans or not registered with another party. This is now an open or “jungle” primary.

The top four vote-getters from that Aug. 16 election proceed to the November ballot. In that election, Alaskans rank their favorites 1-4 with a space for a write-in candidate.

If no candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated. First-choice votes cast for the failed candidate are also eliminated, lifting the second choices indicated on those ballots into the first choice slot. A new tally is conducted to determine whether any candidate reaches a 50+1 majority of the adjusted votes. The process is repeated until a candidate wins an outright majority.

The voting system, which is vexing even the experts who try to explain it, was designed and pushed by Murkowski’s past campaign counsel Scott Kendall. The purpose for the scheme is to help Murkowski avoid a Republican primary, which she cannot win. As for the general election, Murkowski has never reached 50 percent in any of her wins since she first ran in 2004, which is why Tshibaka sees a path to victory.

In the scenarios tested, Cygnal says Tshibaka wins, even after the ranked-choice ballot goes through its machine-calculated redistribution of votes.

  • According to the pollster, 87% of Alaska Republicans hold an unfavorable view of Murkowski.
  • Independents voters prefer a Republican by 13%.
  • Party intensity is much stronger for Republicans (+86%) than Democrats (+58%).

The poll was conducted March 14-16 among 500 Alaskans through phone, text and email-to-web.

Cygnal is a reputable firm that caters to Republican clients. The New York Times rated Cygnal the #1 most accurate polling firm in 2018. In the same year, the survey company FiveThirtyEight said Cygnal was the top GOP polling firm. In 2020 Cygnal called the most races correctly of any Republican shop in the nation.


  1. I find it highly unlikely that Trump Republicans are equally supportive as Traditional Republicans. This seems like wishful thinking

  2. Cygnal called our house while conducting their poll. They asked me to rank my favorite candidates in order, and I said, Kelly T, Kelly T, Kelly T and Kelly T. Nancy interrupted me and said I couldn’t do that because Scott Kendall had it rigged for Lisa to win with Democrats. So, I told the Cygnal poster to put Lisa down as my #5 choice. I knew my bachelor’s degree from Seattle University would come in handy one day.

    • What was the B.S. degree in, one wonders? Certainly not morality or sensibility one might think. Why would a person vote for someone who is a pencil pusher lawyer, who’s liable to mix some degree of religious fervor with governance, who despite her religious fervor doesn’t seem to be Christian supporting righteousness or morality in leadership, whose heart is not in Alaska, (and for all intents and purposes is mother of a family of cheechako moquitoes), and who has no stated purpose other than fully supporting the dubiousness of a game plan of a former scandal-raking criminal with unswerving support? It’s really difficult to understand why anyone would vote for this ‘puppet’.

      • Mrs N, maybe because she isn’t named Lisa? Works for me!
        Oh, BTW, your girl has been working such wonders for Alaska since her Pally China Joe was ” selected”.

    • Frankie’s degree was in Economics. Unfortunately, he had no common sense while banking, other than to give loans to his best friends, laden with confidential promises by the loan recipients. So, I told him to go into politics instead, where he could fib all day and not be accountable to anyone but the voters who wouldn’t know the difference. Since I have the brains in the family, I could guide Frankie along with whatever predicament arose. After putting Lisa through law school and making her take the bar exam repeatedly until she found the bar prep company who could give her the answers beforehand, I thought she could carry the torch for our family business of politics. But after 40 years of fooling fellow Alaskans, they have finally figured out that Lisa inherited the lessor of Frankie’s common sense. I have to cut the apron strings and vote for Kelly Tshabaka now. Alaskans have finally figured us out, and the Democrats will use Lisa like a wad of toilet paper to get what they want. Going to Confessionals and Praying is no longer going to solve this BIG problem. GO KELLY!

    • The ugly Murkowski saga rolls on. This is what happens when a family gains a political dynasty of 40 years in the making. And Alaskans are getting really sick of them.

  3. Go Kelly Go, we can beat their election steal scheme! Senator Kelly Tshibaka, has a nice ring to it.

  4. “IF” we’re serious about cutting the cancer and embarrassment from our ranks THEN, it’s imperative we get out to vote AND we consistently vote as follows:
    … 1) Kelly T.
    … 2) other.
    … 3) other.
    … 4) Daddy’s Little Princess.
    It’s the only way to overcome the inequities and deviousness (ie – crookedness) of Rank Choice Voting. This is our chance, for us to stand united and cohesive, making a conscious decision to end the deception and manipulation that has inflicted and poisoned our local voting system.

    • Murkowski will not be marked anywhere on my ballot. I’d rather put Kelly twice or leave a blank spot.

    • Guess that’s that’s the meaningless ‘buzzword’ this election cycle … DLP … does it unify all those supporters of a treasonous presidency? One might hope that the criminal is charged with more than a ‘possible felony’ when it comes time to realizing that supporting a trumpian sycophant gives the election cycle to members of the other party.

  5. There will be a ton of Democrats voting for Lisa. She will carry the majority of rural Alaska. Not so sure this poll is accurate. But we can hope!

    • I think you are right about that, as far as I can tell anyway. I have never voted for a Republican in my life and yet I will vote for Lisa just to try and keep Kelly out. I do not agree with a lot of what Lisa votes for but I believe she will bring more to Alaska than Kelly will.

      • Will never be able to vote for anyone whom makes up a language speaks with “spirit animals”. DQ from the get go.

  6. While this looks like good news, there is a large segment of the voting population that is so disgusted with constant polling that they refuse to answer – I believe these folks skew toward Kelly T, but it is an unknown. The other really bad news is that the State will be conducting this election by mail. The cemetery vote and all ex-Alaska voters will get ballots – we all know that once you’re in the grave you always vote left! Rank choice voting is designed to help Lisa and whoever the dems run. Beware and please vote for Kelly – and if you get two ballots, vote ’em both… (sarc…)

  7. The reason Murkowski can’t win a Republican primary is because she’s not a Republican. The GOP kicked her out.

  8. Wait, if the last place candidate’s ballot goes to the second choice only, what reason is there to make a third and fourth pick?

    Your third and fourth choice never comes into play. Only your second choice would be tallied.

    • If your second choice is eliminated, then your third choice moves up. If your third choice is eliminated, then your 4th place moves up. No more one person one vote!

  9. Frankie, there isn’t a soul in Alaska who thinks you can make a wise independent decision. You should have let me talk to the pollster. At least I know how to spell Tshibaka.

  10. The citizens want oath integrity Kelly will list her accomplishments for Alaskans Kelly is 100% oath integrity. Lisa time to scat your so exposed scat ma’am. I’m supporting Kelly I have sent her money I will give her my vote. Kelly will support us Kelly will show us oath integrity. Please all support Kelly. Oath integrity needed immediately.

    • Yeah, like when she said she she went from Homelessness to Harvard. She cannot help but lie. She is a Beltway swamp dweller.

  11. A lot of candidates put our polls they have commissioned saying they are gone to win. They want to convey the message that they can win so potential supporters see them as a viable candidate and are willing to send them money. Such polls are typically skewed and biased. I have a hard time believing a poll bought and paid for by Kelly Tshibaka. She has demonstrated she will say anything to get elected, like supporting the big lie that Trump won the 2020 election in order to get his endorsement.

  12. Fellow Conservatives, be very wary of the recent exit of the Democrat running for the US Senate seat, for Alaska. I can most assuredly be certain that Mitch McConnell had something to do with that turn-about; only to help and assist Lisa (the mole) Murkowski. McConnell has a strong chance of losing his leadership role currently, and he knows that Lisa will bow down to his selfish and corrupt commands.

    • She is indeed a scammer and grifter. She is no different that Gaetz and Taylor-Greene and Boebert. She has Trump’s endorsement for gawd’s sake which should, in a reality-based world, sink her.

  13. Nobody who is not a part of the established elites will win a ranked choice election.

    Ranked choice is designed to allow shenanigans and few people in the nation have the skills required to ferret out the cheating buried in lines of code.

    So long as ranked choice voting is the law, there will not be an honest election.

  14. Is ranked-choice voting confusing? Perhaps so. But those for whom ranked-choice voting is unduly complex are probably challenged with other aspects of voting also: more than one candidate (decisions, decisions?), so many issues, filling out one’s ballot, etc. – wouldn’t an autocracy be so much easier and less confusing? Life is complicated enough as it is.

    Will this comment be posted – or if so for long? Very unlikely.

  15. What is it about this woman that makes me like her less every time she opens her pie hole?

    I’d sooner vote for Murky just to spite the interloper… and I dislike Murky’s consistent turncoat voting record intensely. Go away Chewie. You are not ours and I have no idea what Dunleavy may have been thinking when he made room for you and your husband to inflict yourselves (and you specifically) on Alaska politics. Go away.

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