President Donald Trump on Thursday directed the Department of Commerce to begin work on a new census that excludes undocumented immigrants from the population count, a move that could have a profound effect on the makeup of the US House of Representatives.
Calling for a “new and highly accurate” census based on “modern day facts and figures,” Trump ordered Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to begin to work on the project immediately. The announcement came as redistricting battles intensify across the country in advance of the 2026 midterm elections.
Historically, the decennial US Census has included all residents, regardless of legal status. That count is then used to apportion congressional seats among the states. Under the presidency of Joe Biden, illegal immigrants flooded the nation to the highest levels in history, and many believe it was an intentional strategy by Democrats.
By excluding noncitizens, states with high numbers of undocumented illegal immigrants, such as California, could lose seats in Congress.
A 2020 Pew Research Center analysis suggested that excluding noncitizens would result in California, Texas, and Florida each losing a congressional seat.
In Texas, Republicans are pushing a new congressional map that could flip as many as five Democratic seats. Democratic lawmakers there made headlines by fleeing the state to block a vote, prompting Republican Sen. John Cornyn to confirm that the FBI is pursuing those legislators.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom says he will back a redistricting effort in his state that would counteract the Republican map in Texas, and he is calling on Democrats to “fight fire with fire.”
Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski stands alone among Republicans on this issue. In a 2024 vote on an amendment to restrict census counts to US citizens, she was the only Republican senator to vote against it, even though the change would not impact Alaska, since the state has just one congressional seat due to low population.
While other members of her party argue that including undocumented immigrants unfairly boosts Democratic power, Murkowski has defended the broader interpretation of the term “persons,” even in light of the crush of illegal immigration under the Biden administration and the cost to American taxpayers to mitigate the social problems associated with criminal migrants.
An estimated 16.8 million illegal aliens were living in the United States as of June 2023, according to data from the Federation for American Immigration Reform, up from 15.5 million the previous year. Over 7 million of those have entered the country during President Joe Biden’s time in office. These populations are heavily concentrated in blue states, and under current policy, bolster those states’ congressional clout.