In a sobering sign for Democrats, the latest McLaughlin & Associates national survey shows Republicans holding a solid lead ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
According to the poll, 47% of likely voters say they would back a Republican candidate for Congress, compared to just 42% who would vote Democrat. That’s a +5 point advantage for the GOP.
Read all the polling data on this McLaughlin & Associates poll.
Adding to Democrat woes, President Donald Trump’s approval rating continues to climb. The survey pegs Trump at 52% approval and 43% disapproval, giving him a solid +9 net approval rating as he heads into the second half of his second term.
The numbers reflect a political environment that appears to be shifting in Republicans’ favor, with Trump’s enduring popularity offering a potential tailwind for GOP candidates across the country.
Democrat are suffering from low enthusiasm among voters and the party’s ability to counter Republican momentum. With the midterms still over a year away, these early indicators are certain to energize Republican strategists and donors, while intensifying internal debates among Democrats about the direction of their party, which has been overtaking by extremists.
Republicans already hold control of both chambers of Congress, and a +5 lead in the generic ballot suggests their majority could expand. In Alaska, two congressional seats will be on the 2026 ballot: Sen. Dan Sullivan is up for another six-year term, and first-term Congressman Nick Begich will make a case for a second two-year term in the House.
Trump’s +9 approval rating is another key metric. If these trends hold, 2026 could shape up to be another banner year for the GOP.