Poll analyst FiveThirtyEight forecasts Gov. Mike Dunleavy has strongest path for November victory


The FiveThirtyEight website ran simulations on the Alaska election for governor and found that a Republican is favored to win 71 times in every 100 simulations.

A Democrat is favored to win in just 12 times of every 100 simulations.

Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy has the best chance in the simulations, winning 69 in 100 times.

Bill Walker, the former Democrat-backed governor who is running as a nonpartisan candidate, wins 17 of 100 simulations. Les Gara, a Democrat candidate for governor, wins 12 of every 100 simulations. Republican Chris Kurka wins 2 of every 100 simulations. The organization did not appear to run a simulation on Republican candidate Charlie Pierce.

“This is FiveThirtyEight’s best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors,” the website reports.

A May poll by Lake Research Partners showed Dunleavy winning with 40%, to Gara’s 18% and Walker’s 12%, with Pierce following at 5% and no mention of Kurka. The poll did not take into consideration the ranked choice voting system that has been adopted in Alaska’s general elections, after the passage of the 2020 Ballot Measure 2.

FiveThirtyEight, run by founder and editor Nate Silver, focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports.


  1. Sad to see no conservatives interested in saving Alaska.
    But what’s worse?
    A weak-kneed pretend conservative?
    A radical neo-Marxist with dreams of being Czar?
    A Pipedreamer who taught other politicians how to steal from your family without having to pay a price?
    Coming elections brings to mind that great line from Dante….

    “Abandon all hope ye who enter here……”

    • Perfect example of a “gloom and doomer” who doesn’t want to pitch in and help Alaska be the best it can be. Continuing to fight against the majority is a defeatest attitude and has no place in Alaska.

      • Since you seem young enough and (for real or just for fun) claim to be conservative can we expect you to run? Isn’t it a wee bit late to think about that?

  2. Voters and the general public still do not like pedophiles or their enablers, no matter how hard Democrats try to mitigate their actions. So long, Bill Walker. Even a hypothetically generally issued apology for being a pedophile enabler to Byron Mallott is too little, too late. You are through.

  3. Sad comment that the Cowardly Lion is the best offering we have.

    Another example of why we can’t have nice things.

  4. Suzanne will you try for me Lisa won’t answer. Lisa murkowski will you be my date at the trump rally ma’am, I will be in a Biden costume if that will help us here. Come on man ma’am

  5. China Walker is the worst choice ever, please do not allow Diesel and China Walker another chance at screwing us again,. Keep them out.

  6. Dunleavy is a poor governor, lazy and just plain no good as a manager of a state or executive. He is poor in judgment of people he hires and will lie to whatever end to hide the truth from the voters.

  7. Continuing my thoughts on why Chairman Bill is getting so much backing from the Obama crowd, I have to wonder if Walker is a globalist. The GMMB firm that is now doing his advertising is the same one that Obama and other democrats used. It has a tremendous winning record. It is also highly expensive. This should be a concern to every Alaskan. No one needs a globalist in charge and Walker’s friends are beginning to look like those globalist wolves in sheep’s clothing.
    And a question or two on Pierce – 1. Was he dealing with a friendly or adversarial group as the administrative head? 2. Has he thought about what might happen to Alaska if it doesn’t become food independent due to likely shutdowns of the pacific ports when the two giant faults finally move (they are way overdue for the major correction). Has anyone heard Pierce say anything about how Alaska must become a sovereign state like Dunleavy’s statements in his state of the state. There is a lot more to being governor than balancing a budget. Just saying.

  8. We need to stick with Dunleavy as he has the best chance. Do you want to split votes and risk getting the type of governor that the blue states now all suffer from? Alaska is in the crosshairs and with one slip we’re done.

  9. I wonder if the pollsters are factoring in Dominion voting machines, mail in ballots, ranked choice voting, ballot harvesting, dirty voter rolls & activist judges? Let’s be honest here folks – our elections are hopelessly corrupt. We will get the results the elites want, period!

  10. Well the gentle giant(as in weak) has major globalists surrounding him.With that in mind will we have a fair election?
    Pierce 2022!

Comments are closed.