The FiveThirtyEight website ran simulations on the Alaska election for governor and found that a Republican is favored to win 71 times in every 100 simulations.
A Democrat is favored to win in just 12 times of every 100 simulations.
Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy has the best chance in the simulations, winning 69 in 100 times.
Bill Walker, the former Democrat-backed governor who is running as a nonpartisan candidate, wins 17 of 100 simulations. Les Gara, a Democrat candidate for governor, wins 12 of every 100 simulations. Republican Chris Kurka wins 2 of every 100 simulations. The organization did not appear to run a simulation on Republican candidate Charlie Pierce.
“This is FiveThirtyEight’s best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors,” the website reports.
A May poll by Lake Research Partners showed Dunleavy winning with 40%, to Gara’s 18% and Walker’s 12%, with Pierce following at 5% and no mention of Kurka. The poll did not take into consideration the ranked choice voting system that has been adopted in Alaska’s general elections, after the passage of the 2020 Ballot Measure 2.
FiveThirtyEight, run by founder and editor Nate Silver, focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports.