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Quote of the day: Sunday best from Trey Gowdy

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“It is kind of ironic that the people in charge of investigating the law and executing the law would violate the law. Make no mistake, disclosing grand jury material is a violation of the law. So, as a former prosecutor, I’m disappointed that you and I are having the conversation because somebody violated their oath of secrecy.”

– House Oversight Committee Chairman Trey Gowdy, speaking about Special Counsel Robert Mueller having leaked information to the media concerning grand jury charges filed in the investigation into Russia’s influence in the the 2016 presidential election. Gowdy was speaking with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday. 

 

Mueller is a close friend of the now-dismissed FBI Director, James Comey, and has a team of lawyers with financial ties to Democratic candidates.

Quote of the day: In Anchorage, ‘I’m always carrying’

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“I don’t even question whether or not I should be armed when I’m walking my dogs now. I’m always carrying.”

— Anchorage resident testifying on Saturday by phone to the House Judiciary Committee on Senate Bill 54 and the need for criminal justice reform.

House Finance will meet earlier on Monday to deliberate SB 54, starting at 1 pm, but will take public testimony in the evening from 5-9 pm. Watch and listen here:

http://akleg.gov/#tab5

Give your crime-related testimony by calling 907-465-4648 to obtain the number or send testimony to [email protected].

SB 54 increases some penalties for crimes that under SB 91 have possibly led to a wave of thefts across Alaska. The bill was passed by the Senate in April, but House Democrats sat on it and never held a single hearing until the governor called them into special session to do so on Oct. 23.

The best opinion piece you’ll read all week

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Now for some good news. Andrew Jensen, editor of the Alaska Journal of Commerce, shared his thoughts on the success of SB 21, the oil tax reform that took the place of ACES in 2013, and was ratified by voters in a 2014 referendum.

‘GAME OVER FOR WILECHOWSKI’

If Sen. Bill Wielechowski is true to his word, we’ve heard the last from him about changing Alaska’s oil taxes.

Back on June 10, 2014, Wielechowski and now-former Sen. Hollis French (who Gov. Bill Walker appointed to the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission last year) issued a “very simple challenge.”

“If SB 21 produces new oil, even ONE additional barrel, and this production results in increased revenue to the state, even ONE more dollar we will drop our support for revising oil taxes,” Wielechowski said.

The legislation proposed by Wielechowski and French called for the previous system known as ACES to be retroactively implemented in 2019 “if there is not one new barrel of oil produced compared to the 2013 TransAlaska Pipeline moving average of 531,000 (approx.) and total oil revenues from 2014 to 2018 are not any greater under SB 21 than they would have been under ACES.”

Whoops.

On Oct. 25 in Juneau, state Revenue Department officials released a revised production forecast for the current fiscal year of 533,000 barrels per day.

That’s 1,999 barrels more than needed under Wielechowski’s and French’s challenge and by the time the fiscal year ends next June 30 it could be plenty more.

We’ve yet to reach the peak production months on the North Slope, yet in September the daily rate was 512,000 barrels per day compared to 474,000 per day in September 2016.

So far in October, the daily production is 537,000 barrels per day compared to 525,000 per day in the same month last year.

This puts the North Slope on track for its third straight year of production increases in the four full fiscal years that Senate Bill 21 has been in place despite the fact prices have cratered from about $112 per barrel when it passed to as low as $26 per barrel in January 2016.

Meeting the revenue half of the Wielechowski-French challenge is even more of a layup.

Nobody, not even the Democrats, disputes that SB 21 has collected more production tax revenue than ACES would have at the prices from 2014-18. ACES would have collected zero production taxes at prices less than $63 per barrel, which we haven’t seen since the first quarter of 2015. The revised price forecast doesn’t expect prices to cross the $63 threshold until 2020.

That represents hundreds of millions more in revenue under SB 21 versus ACES.

Game over.

Early indications are Wielechowski has either forgotten about the gauntlet he and his former Democrat colleague laid down or doesn’t intend to abide by it.

He was tweeting the day after about how we haven’t reached former Gov. Sean Parnell’s goal of 1 million barrels per day and then turned his attention to the difference in production tax revenue versus the entirely separate subject of oil tax credits.

[Read more at the Alaska Journal of Commerce]

 

Anchorage’s 30-day car theft map

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Anchorage has become one of the top cities in the U.S. for car theft. Today is a Saturday, so keep an eye out — it’s the biggest car theft day of the week in Alaska’s biggest city.

Of the 241 car thefts reported from Sept. 28 through Oct. 27, shown in the map above, Sunday is a day of relative rest for car thieves in Anchorage, but even then you’ll not want to leave your car running while unattended anywhere in the Anchorage bowl.

‘Gabby’s Tuesday PAC’ slapped with fine by APOC

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Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux’s campaign slush fund, Gabby’s Tuesday Pac, has been fined by the Alaska Public Offices Commission for missing a filing deadline.

She’s being ordered to pay $625 within 30 days of the decision, released on Wednesday.

https://aws.state.ak.us/ApocReports/Paper/Download.aspx?ID=14492

Alaska campaign finance law prohibits lobbyists from donating to legislative candidates unless they live in the same district. But LeDoux got around that by setting up her own political action committee to, as she labeled it, “elect comonsense conservatives.”

She lightened the pockets of lobbyists from the AFL-CIO, as well as Ashley Reed, John Harris, Darwin Bier, Ray Gillespie, Kris Knauss, Fate Putnam, Paul Fuhs, Kim Hutchinson, and others.

She then blocked legislation offered by Sen. Kevin Meyer to prevent legislators from creating such PACs.

This summer, she just forgot to file her reports with APOC.

LeDoux is a lawyer by training. She was a well-known consort of Bill Allen, who was convicted in a bribery scandal that rocked the state in 2006.

Quote of the Day: House Judiciary Claman following governor’s orders

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‘MOCKERY OF QUESTIONS’

Testimony in House Judiciary Committee, chaired by Rep. Matt Claman, may be pointless, as the chair has evidently decided that SB 54 needs to be passed without any amendments. Testimony from Oct. 26:

Rep. Lora Reinbold: Okay I think this is the right time, I’ve been wanting to ask this for a long time. Has there been any instruction any motivation to get Senate Bill 54 through as is with no amendments?

John Skidmore, Department of Law: Through the chair, Representative Reinbold, it is certainly the position of the Department of Law that [SB] 54 is an important tool and the tools that are found in 54, as it exists, are things we are seeking and we would like to see that move as quickly as possible. 54 has already passed through the other body, so passing through this body without changes is quite frankly the cleanest way that it’s enacted quickly. But be that as it may we respect this body’s ability to make their own policy calls and amend things as they deem appropriate.

Rep. Reinbold: With all due respect, I asked if there was any discussions in any way with anybody, with any direction where you’ve been instructed in any fashion with the Department of Law wants…

John Skidmore: Through the chair Representative Reinbold, I’ve tried to make clear my position throughout my testimony in the days in front of this committee that I represent the Department of Law and the Administration and that the positions that I state here are not my personal positions they are the positions of the Department  of Law as they have evaluated all this information. So have I talked with people in my department? Of course I’ve talked with people in my department. I would be foolish not to have. Have I talked with others in the Administration? Of course I have. I am a part of the administration. Um, have I been told what I’m allowed to say and wat I’m not allowed to say? The answer is no.

Rep. Reinbold: Thank you. And my final one..

Rep. Claman: I’ll let you have a final one.

Rep. Reinbold: I feel like…

Rep. Claman: Representative Reinbold I think you’re actually going to like what I’m about to tell you. As to Senate Bill 54, I personally had a conversation with the governor, before we arrived at special session, in which he told me that he would like to see Senate Bill 54 passed in the version that it left the Senate. That is what he told me personally and I can’t tell you the discussion that led to that. But I can tell you that he’s the chief executive and I figure that’s the position of his team, and that’s what I assume.  And again, I can’t say anything about the discussions, but I can tell you that I specifically remember that conversation with the governor and that’s what he told me. And you have a third follow up.

Rep. Reinbold: OK and with all due respect, I feel like this has kind of been a mockery of questions. And you’re not answering all the questions. And you’re kind of … not remembering things, you don’t have the statistics … and I’ve been very disappointed.

And as much as I respect you, and as much as it is a tough position, I’m asking very simple questions, and if there was a discussion between you and the governor and you and the attorney general — if there was any discussion and you were directed anyway, because someone in the room told me there was, and so I’m just telling you I want that.

I know you’re not going to answer it at this point in time but its frustrating that I’m not getting the answers from very, very simple, tiny little questions….

Two outdoorsmen file for House District 26

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South Anchorage politics just got more interesting: Joe Riggs yesterday filed a letter of intent to run for the House District 26 seat being vacated by Rep. Chris Birch, as Birch makes a bid for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Kevin Meyer.

Earlier this month, Al Fogle announced he’s running for that seat, which puts two Republicans into a primary battle for a seat that will almost certainly go to a Republican. One year ago, Birch won the general election against Democrat David Gillespie — 5,141 to 2,873.

Riggs ran for Anchorage Assembly in 2016, but pulled out after his company had to downsize due to Obamacare. He was in the medical equipment and consulting business and needed to focus on landing on his feet. Riggs served on the city’s budget advisory committee. Riggs is a climber, kayaker and wind-surfer.

Fogle ran for the South Anchorage Assembly seat in 2017, but lost to left-leaning Suzanne LaFrance.  He served in the Iraq War in the U.S. Army and has worked as a financial consultant. Fogle was president of the Alaska Association of Health Underwriters. He loves to fish and hike.

Walker tax to add 40 people to State payroll

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The sectional analysis of the Walker Payroll Tax shows that the Revenue Department believes that “Adding a broad based tax would be a significant challenge to the Tax Division,” and would require a budget of $10 million and a staff of 40.

The tax, which Gov. Bill Walker has asked the Alaska Legislature to consider in the fourth special session of the year, would bring in $320 million a year in revenue to the State in 2020.

Here is HB 4001’s sectional analysis in full, as prepared by Ken Alper, director of the Tax Division, and approved by Commissioner Sheldon Fisher:

BILL ANALYSIS

The bill establishes a payroll tax on both wages and self‐employment income earned in Alaska. It applies equally to both residents and non‐residents.

The amount of tax is equal to one and one half percent (1 1/2%), with a maximum tax “cap” equal to two times the permanent fund dividend distributed in the previous calendar year. If the dividend is less than $1,100 as adjusted for inflation, the maximum cap is $2,200 instead.

The tax will be withheld by employers and remitted to the state. Employers of contract employees who are required to report this to the federal government, will be required to send comparable information to the state. Self‐employed individuals shall report and pay directly to the state.

The Department of Revenue is given broad powers to administer the tax, including drafting regulations, determining what business income is from a source in the state and thus subject to the tax, collecting withholding taxes, and paying tax refunds. Portions of the Internal Revenue Code are adopted by reference.

REVENUE IMPACT

The Tax Division has modified their existing income tax revenue model to estimate the approximate number of taxpayers and their associated tax burden. The bill would take effect on January 1, 2019, meaning that the tax for calendar year 2019 would be due in early 2020.

At full implementation in FY2020, revenue will be about $320 million / year. Revenue in FY2019 will be half that number, $160 million, based on the tax taking effect in the middle of the fiscal year. Impact could be partially mitigated because this will likely qualify as a state income tax for federal tax purposes, meaning it would be deductible on Schedule A of form 1040. Therefore, Alaskans who itemize could be able to reduce their federal taxable income by the amount of their state tax.

IMPLEMENTATION COST

Adding a broad based tax would be a significant challenge to the Tax Division.  We have recently completed implementation of Tax Revenue Management System (TRMS), an integrated online tax application used by both taxpayers and administrators for the 25 tax programs currently overseen by the Division. We expect to engage FAST Enterprises, the TRMS contractor, to build a new module for this tax into TRMS.

Among the supplemental funds requested for FY2018, the Department intends to use about $300.0 to begin the implementation process. With this, we will engage a contractor with experience building a statewide tax structure impacting individual workers. An essential deliverable of the outside contract will be an implementation plan that includes staffing, infrastructure, and additional outreach needs. We will also contract for more advanced data servicesin order to more accurately forecast future revenues.

The $10,000.0 capital request reflects an estimate for our contract with FAST to add the new tax module as well as the Department’s other short term implementation costs.  This is a multi‐year process and much of the actual spending will not occur until after we begin collecting revenues. In addition to the software development, this will require integration with national accounting and tax software vendors in order to update programssuch as TurboTax and QuickBooks to incorporate Alaska. In addition to the tax return filing and examination modules, the contractor will have to provide for the associated databases, forms, communications, and integration with our existing imaging, accounting, and collections systems.

Currently, the Department of Labor administers the Employment Security Tax, which establishes a relationship for data and tax collection with most employersin Alaska. It is possible that some efficiencies could be achieved by linking these databases. However, the proposed legislation adds at least three major functions that do not exist within the Employment Security Tax. These are: receiving and processing individual (rather than employer aggregated) tax returns, receiving direct payment from self‐employed individuals, and providing refunds in the event of overpayment.

The department envisions a gradual ramping up of the staff needed to collect and administer the tax.

At full implementation, we will have about 40 additional staff. We expect the new staff to be roughly split between our Juneau and Anchorage offices. The staffing need is substantially less than what would be expected for a full income tax for two major reasons. First, the complex task of apportioning income among multiple states is greatly simplified by the bill structure. And second, the size of the tax cap reducesthe expected need for complex audits of high income individuals.

Additional travel is largely for public education efforts, as well as the need to train new staff on the tax management system. Cost for Servicesreflects primarily  internal “core services” paid to other state agencies, due to the substantial growth in the overall size of the tax division staff. Commodities are primarily subscription data services; the Tax Division anticipates needing to procure additional data to better forecast revenue from individual Alaskan and nonresident worker taxpayers.

The department anticipates that taxpayers will file online at approximately the rate currently achieved by the Permanent Fund Dividend Division. If a substantially larger portion choose to submit paper returns, the staffing needs would increase accordingly. Throughout the six‐year period covered by this fiscal note, we anticipate total implementation costs, operating plus capital, to be less than 2.5 percent of additional state revenue.

An initial analysis of the staff needs within the Tax Division to implement a personal income tax is as follows:

Armstrong’s Nanushuk project needs your input

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A proposed North Slope project could bring up to 1,000 construction jobs to Alaska during the project’s development, and 200 drilling and production jobs.

The project is also projected to put 120,000 barrels a day into the Trans Alaska Pipeline, which is running at only one-quarter capacity. That alone would lift Alaska N. Slope production by 20-25%.

It’s Armstrong Oil and Gas’ Nanushuk Project, one of the largest finds on the Slope in decades. And it’s time for the public to weigh in.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is soliciting comments from the public as it makes decisions in the environmental impact statement process.

The public comment period is open through Nov. 14 for the project located southeast of the Colville River, which is expected to produce over one billion barrels of recoverable oil from a conventional reservoir.

Armstrong is one of the largest oil and gas explorers on the Slope since it acquired leases in 2001. The company has drilled 30 exploration wells since 2003 and employed hundreds.

Click here to send your comment about the project to the Army Corps of Engineers.

Click here to view the draft Environmental Impact Statement.

The Alaska Support Industry Alliance provides these points about the project:

  • The Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) is only about a quarter full.  Nanushuk’s anticipated production of 120,000 barrels per a day would extend the useful life of TAPS and all associated downstream assets, including tankers and storage facilities in Valdez.
  • The net economic effect of the Nanushuk project would be overwhelmingly positive with production generating billions of dollars in local, state and federal revenues.
  • Nanushuk would generate approximately 1,000 construction jobs and up to 200 jobs in drilling.
  • Armstrong continues to create hundreds of jobs through ice road and pad construction, catering, and well servicing and drilling work from its exploration work over the last 16 years.
  • Armstrong and its contractors have been working through the EIS process since June of 2015.