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Permanent Fund dividend applicants drop by 2,118 this year

The number of people applying for an Alaska Permanent Fund dividend this year dropped by 2,118 from last year.

668,588 Alaskans applied in 2018 by the deadline, March 31, according to Sara Race, director of the Permanent Fund Division.

That is down from the 670,706 who applied in 2017, although only 615,590 of those were found qualified to receive it.

The state’s population is thought to be about 737,000, according to the Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

The number of people applying for the dividend has dropped for several years after reaching a high in 2012 of 679,633.

This year’s dividend will be $1,600, as set by the House and Senate and agreed to by the governor during the session.

Since its inception in 1982, more than 22.1 million applications have been received by the Permanent Fund Division, and 21 million of those Alaskans have been paid a total of $21.9 billion.

This year, if it’s like recent years, about 6 percent applications are likely to be rejected for various reasons, usually due to residency requirements. Last year, 8 percent of applications were not paid, a more than 20 percent increase in rejected applications over the average.

If 40,000 applications are rejected (6 percent), more than $1 billion will be sent to the qualified Alaskans in October. The first Permanent Fund dividend check, in 1982, was for $1,000 and was sent to 487,841 Alaskans.

Democrats exodus the House

MORE THAN A THIRD HITTING THE EXITS

Being in the majority is not all it’s cracked up to be. We’ve been counting. More than one third of the House Democrats will turn over this year:

Sam Kito, Dean Westlake, Zach Fansler, Les Gara, Dave Guttenberg, Justin Parish are all being replaced, (Westlake, Fansler, and Parish all got sideways with women and were forced out)

We’re still waiting to see if Chris Tuck and Harriet Drummond join the exodus, which would bring it to just one shy of half of the Democrats heading to greener pastures.

BREAKING: John Lincoln has told some people he’s not going to run for the District 40 seat that he was appointed to after the disastrous one year of butt-grabbing Rep. Dean Westlake.

Lincoln has, however, filed for that seat.

Will the Republicans be able to field sterling candidate Tiffany Scott (Sheldon)of Kotzebue? She was just appointed by the governor to the Board of Education and was a delegate to the Alaska Republican State Convention. Hmmm … Inquiring minds want to know.

 

Fields

MORE BREAKING: With Les Gara dropping out of the Alaska House, and Elias Rojas already filed to run, another Democrat has joined the fray.

Zach Fields announced he is running for the District 20 seat. He has lined up the big name support of Mark Begich, Vic Fischer, Les Gara, Vince Beltrami, Leslie Ridle, Heidi Drygas, Joelle Hall, Joey Merrick, and Laborers Local 341. Also, he claims Jane Anvik, Kay Brown, Bill Wielechowski, Hollis French and Kevin McGee in his camp.

Fields works for Laborers Local 341; previously he worked for the Department of Labor and was the communications director for the Alaska Democratic Party. He is a graduate of the University of Virginia with a degree in economics. He is a take-no-prisoners partisan, and has been the Democrats’ reliable attack dog for several cycles. Many had speculated he would be leaving to work on a Mark Begich campaign, but it appears it’s his own.

Rojas checks the diversity box, but evidently that’s not going to be enough for the party faithful. They’ve lined up for the East Coast white guy.

Mayhem like me: Torey Tuttle wrecks three police cars in five minutes?

AND HE WRECKS A STOLEN SUBURBAN, TOO

Anchorage police were called to the 600 block of East 16th Ave in Anchorage on May 21 because a vehicle was reported to be there, and it was known to be stolen. By the time the incident was over, four cars were damaged and one was on top of a patrol car.

When police approached the 2005 green Chevy Suburban Chevy parked in front of an apartment complex, they were looking for one person, said to be lying in the back seat.

 Officers discovered two people inside the Suburban, and blocked the vehicle from behind with their two squad cars. They then used their loudspeaker to order the people to exit the vehicle.

That’s when police say Torey Tuttle took the wheel of the Suburban and put it in reverse and rammed the patrol car. He then pulled forward and repeated the action, at a higher rate of speed, forcing one patrol car to slide and hit the second one.

But Tuttle wasn’t done. He pulled forward again and reversed for a third time and hit the patrol cars again, causing them both to move.

At this point, another patrol car arrived and blocked the Suburban from the front. Its final resting place was with its rear end on top of the front end of the first patrol car.

Tuttle was taken into custody, handcuffed, and his female passenger was also arrested.

Tuttle, 38, had a warrant out on him for a felony, and he was charged with three counts of Criminal Mischief III, two counts of Assault III, and Theft II.

Passenger, Nicole M. Webster, 33, went to jail on an outstanding felony warrant and was also charged with Criminal Mischief V and Misconduct Involving a Weapon III.

Three police cars and the Suburban all sustained damage.

WHO IS TOREY TUTTLE?

He’s got a long rap sheet, filled with domestic violence and protective orders, guns, beatings, and evictions.

In 2002, he was with a group of men who robbed another man. Tuttle was found by the judge to have shot several rounds at the victim, although he missed. Seven men, including Tuttle, were indicted for first degree robbery.

One of the co-defendants told the court that Tuttle had yanked the gun away from him, saying “he didn’t have the balls to use it.”

There was an incident of resisting arrest, and having a gun in the house; as a felon, there are laws about that.

There was a car theft in 2016, and he was out on the streets causing trouble while he was awaiting trial. But he failed to show up on May 9 for a court appearance and a warrant was issued for his arrest.

Then, this week, he wrecked three police cars and a stolen vehicle before being sent back to jail. Must Read Alaska will keep an eye on his case to see how he fares under the “tightened” catch-and-release policies.

A look at his recent rap sheet:

 

 

 

 

Gara signals he’s out; Rojas has filed for Downtown Anchorage

One big-city Democrat in the Alaska Legislature may be replaced by another as Rep. Les Gara, who represents the second-most liberal district in the state — District 20 — has signaled he’s done.

Democratic Party operative Elias Rojas has filed for his seat.

According to the Pride Foundation, Rojas is a communications and marketing professional with an extensive background in legislative campaigns, media relations, public relations, communications, marketing, and advertising. He owns Alaska Digital Strategies, an Anchorage-based digital marketing agency, after bouncing around several marketing jobs over the past few years, according to his LinkedIn account.

Rojas grew up in California and lived in New York, where he was a senior field organizer for the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force. He has a B.A. from San Diego State University (go Aztec Warriors!) and earned his MBA from Alaska Pacific University.

He can often be found in a coffee shop, and often at Steam Dot in the Sears Mall, and has served on the Pride Foundation board since 2009. He has worked on many Democratic campaigns since moving to Alaska.

Gara announced his intentions on Facebook on Monday. By next January, he will have served 16 years in the House.

“After many years working as your Legislator, I’d be honored to have a bright, hard working person take the turn to represent our district and state. I’m not necessarily dropping out of the 2018 race, but I’d truly prefer to have a great new candidate, who honestly shares the values of the large majority in our district, represent us. I will keep my name in this race because I do have the energy for another 2 years of this job IF a committed person who will work to win and represent our district’s values doesn’t run.”

That was enough for Rojas. Within 24 hours, he’d filed a letter of intent with the Alaska Public Offices Commission, possibly seeking to crowd out other potential applicants.

District 20 covers downtown, Government Hill, Mountain View, Fairview and South Addition. During the past two election cycles, Gara has not faced a primary challenge nor a Republican opponent in the General Election.

The district is reliably anti-private sector. In the 2014 primary election, voters in District 20 voted to repeal SB 21, oil tax reform, 2826 to 1897. Only District 33 downtown Juneau voted against oil tax reform at a higher rate, 4,769 to 1,906. The repeal effort was defeated, however.

When dueling Facebook videos give true polling data

TWO RETRO-LOOKING ADS, BUT VERY DIFFERENT RESULTS

Political campaigns gauge voter interest in different ways, and strategists from the competing teams try to explain and massage the results to suit their purposes.

This became evident in a recent Patinkin Poll released on behalf of the Bill Walker campaign, which showed Walker in the lead over Mike Dunleavy, 51 to 44 percent, among likely General Election voters.

Two video ads that appeared on Facebook in recent days have created their own kind of polling results. They are messages reflecting the values of Walker and those of Dunleavy, both running for the state’s highest office.

WALKER NOIR VIDEO

The first black-and-white ad came from the Walker camp. It’s the “Why I Ran” video described in this “Noir vision is Walker’s strange theme” story earlier this month on Must Read Alaska.

Click here to see the video. 

It was posted to Facebook on April 24 and has been seen 99,000 times, according to the social media site. That many views in a Facebook universe comes with a high-dollar advertising spend from the Walker-Mallott campaign.

But in spite of the high spend and the entire month it has been running, the “Why I Ran” video has only received about 300 “likes” from viewers.

That means only 3 out of about 1,000 people indicated they “like” the video message.

Well, maybe the “shares” are better. Some 74 people shared the post with their friends on Facebook, and several of those are Walker insiders. Others shared it along with several negative comments, such as this one:

“The good people of Alaska better not be bamboozled again by this guy.”

DUNLEAVY ‘FATHER OF FUND’ VIDEO

Dunleavy for Alaska posted a video this past Saturday, starring Jay Hammond speaking about the Permanent Fund. It’s also a retro video and has lots of real black-and-white and faded color footage of what Hammond actually said about the Permanent Fund and the dividend, and a screen shot of what Walker actually did.

In just four days it was seen by nearly 49,000 people, and received 653 “likes” and 582 shares. We could find no negative comments associated with the shares.

See the Dunleavy video here.

STRIKING NUMBERS OFFER STARK FUTURE FOR WALKER

What’s unusual about the two videos is that, while presumably both camps paid for Facebook to show their videos to more people, the dark vision that Walker presented had nearly zero “organic” appeal, which means people didn’t share it.

But the old footage of Gov. Hammond, as presented by the Dunleavy camp, garnered an enviable organic reach with its 669 percent more “shares” in four days than the Walker video had in an entire month.

People sharing the video are not comparing Hammond to Walker. They’re associating Hammond and Dunleavy.

Dunleavy for Alaska is not the actual Dunleavy campaign, but a political action committee set up by several major contributors, including Francis Dunleavy (Mike’s brother), Bob Penney, Josh Peppard, and Al Haynes, to name a few.

Is media coverage creating more school shootings?

CONTAGION EFFECT: IS IT A THING?

The front page of the New York Times on Saturday featured expansive coverage of the boy who shot students at his high school in Santa Fe, Texas, killing 10 of them and injuring several others.

The stories of the victims were featured, but large on the page was the photo of the troubled young man, now a killer, who had spared some students “so he could have his story told.”

The New York Times and news media around the world obliged him and fed what appears to be a contagion of mass shootings at schools around the country.

 

Two days before the Santa Fe shooting, a former student of Dixon High School in Dixon, Illinois, opened fire with a 9 mm semi-automatic rifle, a common firearm, but was stopped by a police officer. The 19-year-old suspect is now in jail.

In Anchorage last week, a Dimond High School student was arrested after making a verbal threat to shoot up the school.

THE CONTAGION THEORY

Newspaper editors have long honored the requests of suicide prevention experts, who theorize that reporting suicides actually cause more suicides to occur. But does news coverage and social media also increase the incidences of mass shootings?

Arizona State University researchers analyzed news coverage of gun-related rampages from 1997 to 2013. Using a mathematical model, they found that shootings resulting in four or more deaths launched a contagion that spread like a virus, lasting an average of 13 days. In other words, when news coverage occurs relating to mass shootings, more mass shootings occur. Some 20-30 percent of extended violence was documented.

Other behaviors have also been theorized as contagious, including disordered eating leading to obesity as well as anorexia, suicide attempts, and psychogenic illnesses.

Researchers from the University of Vermont tracked K-12 school shootings and college mass shootings, along with social media chatter, to establish a causal relationship between the media reaction and what may be a copycat effect.

If that is the case, then Second Amendment proponents have more to point to than just parents needing to take more responsibility for their children’s access to firearms and violent video games. The media needs to do some reflection on coverage. But in an era of social media, how will our society stop the wildfire of online chatter that could be unwittingly influencing alienated, disaffected young people with guns?

Is the fact that schools are staging “active shooter” training with students contributing to the contagion?

[Read The Atlantic Magazine: Mass shootings are spreading like an epidemic]

[Read Malcolm Gladwell: How school shootings catch on]

Add your thought below about whether there is a contagion effect with school shootings.

Catch-and-release: Shane Muse is out again

Shane Muse is out of jail as of Monday, on supervised release while he awaits trial.

Muse has been one of numerous repeat offenders who have cycled in and out of jail under the the State’s “give crooks a chance” law, SB 91.

He was singled out by Anchorage Assembly members Dick Traini, Fred Dyson, and Eric Croft in a letter drafted to state legislators, pleading with them to strengthen penalties for those repeatedly committing serious crimes.

Muse’s recent criminal career in Alaska includes an incident in October, when he was stopped by Anchorage police in a stolen silver 2003 Cadillac Escalade on West 44th Ave., after careening through Midtown and ramming police vehicles in an attempt to escape.

Officers arrested him and two others in that incident. One person in the car, Crystal Tui, had been released several weeks ago. Muse was released by the judge after being charged with numerous Class C felonies.

On March 6, Muse was caught in a 2006 black GMC Yukon that had been reported stolen weeks earlier. The Yukon was parked next to two other occupied vehicles: a silver GMC pickup truck and a silver Chevy Malibu. The officer who spotted the Yukon knew it to be stolen.

As the officer waited for backup, the drivers of the three vehicles noticed him, and pulled away. With all three vehicles now evading the law, patrol units were dispatched to chase the Malibu and the GMC pickup, while another officer forced the Yukon into a snowbank at 10th and Juneau Streets.

At some point in the proceedings, numerous shots were fired not far from the police officers. No one was hit, but officers found a stolen handgun inside the Yukon, tucked beneath the seat where Muse had been sitting. There was a bullet in the chamber.

Muse was booked, but with the pretrial risk assessment tool the state uses, he scored a 2 out of 10, and qualified for mandatory release in spite of being charged with two counts of theft, vehicle theft 1, and being a felon in possession of a weapon. He also had a prior forgery charge and had been missing his court dates on that charge.

The Assistant District Attorney Kevin Bergt told the judge at the time that Muse was a serious risk to the public. But the judge wasn’t able to keep Muse in jail on the car theft and felon-in-posesssion charges, since he could not afford bail.

However, the judge was able to keep him locked up for the forgery incident, since it occurred before the lenient catch-and-release portion of SB 91 went into effect.  The judge set bail at $5,000, which has now been paid. Muse left jail on Monday.

Didn’t the Legislature fix the quick-release bail system? Shouldn’t Muse be in jail for two car theft charges plus evading officers, plus the hand gun under the seat? Isn’t that enough to hold him?

“The short answer is, the ‘fix’ was superficial,” said Amy Demboski, a member of the Anchorage Assembly who also has a talk show on KVNT. “They put a Bandaid on SB 91 to make it through the election and didn’t even come close to fixing it. It is fundamentally flawed.”

The lenient arm of the law: More ‘catch-and-reoffend’ car thievery

 

 

Heads and Tails: Who’s filed for office?

THE FILING DEADLINE IS JUNE 1 – HERE ARE THE LATEST TO JUMP IN

Bieling

ROSS BIELING has filed his letter of intent as a Republican for House District 28 against Rep. Jennifer Johnston. In 2016, he and Johnston were matched in the primary, and she polled 57 percent to Bieling’s 43 percent. This is the South Anchorage hillside area. Lee Amber, a hard Democrat, has also filed for the seat. Johnston, who has served one term in the seat vacated by Mike Hawker, filed this morning.

Wein

DR. RICHARD WEIN of Sitka is said to be filing for the seat now held by Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins of Sitka. Kenny Skaflestad of Hoonah already filed as a Republican for District 35 so the two will meet in the primary. Wein is a retired surgeon and is on the Sitka Assembly. Kreiss-Tomkins, a Democrat, faces no opponent yet in the primary.

Harnett

EUGENE HARNETT of Eagle River has filed for House District 14, a seat now held by Lora Reinbold. Harnett has raised five children in Eagle River, owns his own business, and has been involved in local and state affairs since 1988.

JAMES “RICK” PHILLIPS joined two others in the Democrat primary for District 15, the seat now held by Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, a Republican. Although he is undeclared, he has filed for the primary, which means he’ll go into the Democrats’ primary. Already filed for that seat is hard-Democrat Lyn Franks, and hard-Democrat Patrick McCormack. On the Republican side, Aaron Weaver has filed to take LeDoux on in the primary.

Stutes

LOUISE STUTES filed to run for her Kodiak-based seat. Although registered a Republican, the Alaska Republican Party has kicked her off the ballot and is in a dispute with the Division of Elections about whether it has the authority to do that, or if the State of Alaska can force names on a party’s ballot against its objection. A nonpartisan had filed earlier: Sandra M. Katelnikoff-Lester.

SB26: ‘Diapering the Devil’ is in the details

BY TODD SMOLDON
GUEST CONTRIBUTOR

The 2018 legislative session ended with many of us breathing a sigh of relief through clenched teeth, thankful the House Majority and Gov. Bill Walker were unable to saddle hard-working Alaskans with new taxes, but incredibly frustrated.

Once again, despite the fact that there are $18 billion in the Permanent Fund Earnings Reserve Account, the Legislature failed to pay the traditional 50/50 dividend. Three years in a row, our “leaders” have failed to give the private sector the economic stimulus it needs during this recession.

Let’s review.

In 2016, Governor Walker took $1,100 from each Alaskan with his veto pen.

Doubling down in 2017, a majority of the legislature voted to take another $1,300.

This October will see Alaskan families take a third financial gut punch. The lLegislature arbitrarily determined that every Alaskan will get $1,100 less than they should. The amount of money taken from Alaskan families and the private sector is staggering.

What’s really disturbing are the philosophical inconsistencies of those who are taking nearly $20,000 from the average Alaskan household. Republicans claim that they want small, limited government, but then vote to take money from small businesses and out of the private sector for government largess. Democrats and Independents claim to be “champions of the poor,” but continue to push the button for a de facto regressive income tax.

Alaskans have called, emailed, and testified with very little response from their elected representatives. Instead, like those former Gov. Jay Hammond warned about in his book Diapering the Devil, our politicians use the oil wealth we hold in common to curry favor and grow government.

Hammond’s hope as “Father of the PFD” was to limit the amount of wealth that politicians could waste. However, Gov. Walker and most who represent us in Juneau are bursting out of their Pampers.

As a further insult to constituents, many legislators also voted for Senate Bill 26. This new law allows the Legislature to spend a percentage of the overall value of the fund – a POMV, or percent of market value.

While celebrated by some as a way to protect the Permanent Fund and future dividends, there is absolutely nothing in this law that guarantees any protection.

Alaskans are intelligent people. We know how to read and analyze legislation, and we have discovered that SB26 is deceptive and terribly flawed. A POMV draw would create a more predictable amount of money available for dividends and government spending. However, SB26 isn’t a true POMV because it only draws from the Permanent Fund Earnings Reserve Account, not the value of both the principle and earnings. SB26 is just a statute. And based on how Walker and the Legislature have abused the traditional PFD statute, many of us are more than skeptical.

To create a real POMV, we would need to amend the constitution; something that legislative leadership and Gov. Walker know will never happen with their proposed split of 70 percent for government and 30 percent for dividends. As one member of Senate leadership put it, “The people will just vote with their pocket books.” He obviously needs a new diaper.

The truth is that SB26 doesn’t guarantee a dividend at all. SB26 does not force us to have real conversations about the proper size of government or to identify its essential functions. It only creates a new source of revenue for our legislators to tap. Forget diapers, SB26 allows the Legislature to go commando!

At the unsustainable rate Gov. Walker and our Legislature continue to spend, the PFD will soon be swallowed up by their insatiable appetite.

Sadly, with SB26, our leaders have defied the will of most Alaskans. They’ve also weakened the safeguards established to protect the Permanent Fund and Hammond’s vision of using the PFD to control government spending. Clearly, we must get active in campaigns and elect new people to represent us. Never has the following quote been more clear, “Politicians are like diapers: they should both be changed often and for the same reason.”

Todd Smoldon has taught high school economics for 20 years, resides in Willow, and has lived in Alaska for 31 years.