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Alaska House in disarray, Edgmon tries to answer

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The budget solution doesn’t stop with Speaker Bryce Edgmon.

In an odd press conference today, Edgmon appeared alone, without any of his House majority colleagues, and explained that the buck stops with the House Republican minority, not the majority.

As he sat in the Speaker’s Chambers, facing questions from reporters, he said he doesn’t consider the budget a responsibility of just the majority.

The conservative minority was obstructing progress, he said.

Reporters were not buying it. Even Rich Mauer, the notoriously liberal journalist now reporting for KTUU, seemed skeptical.

“We need to have the difficult discussion on new revenues, I think that is very apparent,” Edgmon said, restating his party’s view that there is a need for an income tax to pay for what has become, under his watch, a $5 billion budget.

An income tax solution is not apparent to House Republicans. The conservative minority had offered dozens of amendments last week to lower the overall budget. On Monday, both liberals and conservatives voted across caucus lines to boost the Permanent Fund dividend to $2,700 this year.

That much was agreed on by a slim majority that felt it was time to go back to the time-honored formula for calculating the dividend.

House Minority Charisse Millett had earlier offered a different view of reality.

Millett had told a reporter from KTOO: “The three Republicans organized with the Democrats and independents because they had the plan. They had the votes. They were all aligned on Alaska’s future. And we’re seeing now that the alignment is not there. Unfortunately, when you are in leadership, and you’re the Speaker, it’s your obligation with 22 people to get the budget passed with 21.”

Edgmon didn’t like that characterization, answering, “I don’t reduce this to sort of carping about majority and minority politics and being more part of the problem, as opposed to part of the solution.”

But he admitted the body is at an impasse. “I’m trying to find a way that we get an operating budget passed, that we somehow find a consensus point between the many competing viewpoints, not just on the budget itself, but on the annual Permanent Fund dividend,” he said.

It wasn’t long, however, before Edgmon blamed Republicans for blocking the majority’s will to enact an income tax, as it has tried to do for two years.

“The minority is not willing to come to consensus. Their whole goal is to obstruct, to delay, to stymie,” he said.

“You’re not going to hear me in the media throwing political salvos at [Millett’s] coalition or anyone for that matter because that’s not going to get us closer to the solution at this point.”

Edgmon went on to say that a larger dividend, such as the one approved by a slim majority of the House on Monday, was not likely to be sustainable into the future.

HOUSE MAJORITY RUNNING OUT OF RUNWAY

Edgmon had begun his remarks by admitting the House was in a budget impasse that “has been obvious to everyone.”

“Our coalition, we took the political risk last year and we’re at the point where we’ve not been able to find the consensus to get the operating budget off the floor.”

Earlier in the day, Edgmon was forced to conduct a “technical session,” essentially gaveling in and out without getting work done because of the chaos in his caucus.

But even that was a struggle for the Democratic-controlled majority.

Why not a regular session on Day 72? If no House floor session today, would it be likely to pass a budget on Good Friday? Easter Monday? Or is the House really willing to hand over the operating budget to the Senate on Day 80, leaving the Senate only 10 days to process the funding plan for state services next year?

In that scenario, the 120-day session is almost a certainty.

And yet Wednesday’s House meltdown was worse when the technical session suddenly had a quorum, and business might have been conducted.

When all 17 Republican members showed up for the technical session, with their sleeves rolled up and ready to work, four of the Democrats also showed up. It was a miscount on the Speaker and House Majority Leader Chris Tuck’s part.

Work could actually get done.

Speaker Edgmon hastily called an at-ease so he could shoo Rep. Daniel Ortiz from the House Chamber, therefore ensuring Edgmon did not have enough members to conduct business.

Then Rep. Harriet Drummond walked out of the Chambers, to give added insurance there would not be a quorum.

The House Democrat-led majority starts Thursday in a state of disarray, having ended Wednesday unable to even figure out how many people they need to not show up in order for them to not get any business done.

Daily ballot count: 30,749 Anchorage residents have voted

GET YOUR BALLOT DROP BOX LOCATION HERE

As of 7 pm on Tuesday, the Anchorage election office had logged 30,749 ballots received of a possible 198,000 ballots that had been mailed on March 13.

That’s a 15 percent turnout to date for the city’s first-ever mail-in election, which ends April 3.

Anchorage voters have six days to go to get their municipal ballots in.

Eagle River/Chugiak still is underperforming with fewer ballots than have been voted in prior elections.

Some 61 percent of ballots that have been turned in have come through the mail. The drop box that has been most popular is the one at the Loussac Library (address below). The election office has received more than 20,000 ballots back because of wrong addresses or “moved.”

Must Read Alaska readers who are curious to know if their ballot has reached the city’s election office can send a personal message to Must Read Alaska on Facebook. We’ll search the most recent list of who has voted and let you know if your ballot was received.

Alternately, call the Municipality’s Voter Hotline at 907-243-VOTE(8683).

Here are drop box locations for those not mailing in their ballots:

— Anchorage School District Education Center, 5530 E. Northern Lights Blvd.
— Bartlett High School, 1101 Golden Bear Drive
— Clark Middle School, 150 Bragaw St.
— Dimond High School, 2909 W. 88th Ave.
— Fairview Community Recreation Center, 1121 E. 10th Ave.
— Loussac Library, 3600 Denali St.
— Service High School, 5577 Abbott Road
— Spenard Community Recreation Center, 2020 W. 48th Ave.
— South Anchorage High School, 13400 Elmore Road
— UAA Alaska Airlines Center, 3550 Providence Drive
— Eagle River Town Center, 12001 Business Blvd.
— Girdwood Community Center, 250 Egloff Drive

ACCESSIBLE VOTING CENTERS AND HOURS 

Anchorage City Hall

632 West 6th Avenue, Room #155

All Municipal ballots will be available at this location.

Monday, March 26 through Friday, March 30 from 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

Monday, April 2, from 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

Election Day, April 3, from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.

ZJ Loussac Library

3600 Denali Street, First Floor

All Municipal ballots will be available at this location.

Monday, March 26 through Saturday, March 31 from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Sunday, April 1, from Noon to 5:00 p.m.

Monday, April 2, from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Election Day, April 3, from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.

 

MOA Election Center

619 East Ship Creek Ave, Suite 100 at Door D on the east side of the building

All Municipal ballots will be available at this location.

Monday, March 26 through Friday, March 30 from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.

Monday, April 2, from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.

Election Day, April 3, from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.

 

O’Malley’s on the Green

3651 O’Malley Road

All Municipal ballots will be available at this location.

Monday, March 26 through Friday, March 30 from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Monday, April 2, from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Election Day, April 3, from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. 

 

Eagle River Town Center

Community Room #170

Same building as the Library

12001 Business Boulevard, Eagle River

Only Chugiak-Eagle River ballots will be available at this location.

Monday, March 26 through Friday, March 30 from 8a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

Monday, April 2, from 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

Election Day, April 3, from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.

[Read: What? Seven days to go and only 26,000 ballots in?]

Anchorage speaks: 96.5 percent say Berkowitz wasn’t honest on sanctuary city

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UPDATE: SURVEY CLOSED AT 11 AM MARCH 29.

Here are the results:

 

 

 

You read about how Anchorage Mayor Ethan Berkowitz implored immigration lawyers to help him with ideas for helping illegal immigrants evade federal immigration authorities. And perhaps you watched the CSPAN footage just to make sure you agreed with the characterization.

Here’s the original story, in case you missed it.

Now take our survey: Has Mayor Berkowitz been honest with voters about his intentions?

Thank you!

What? Seven days to go and only 26,000 ballots?

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MUST READ ALASKA VOTERS – GET YOUR BALLOTS IN

The first mail-in election in Anchorage is a nail biter for candidates, but voters have not shown up in droves, indicating little excitement so far.

Some interviewed by Must Read Alaska report they are dragging their feet because there are too many propositions on the ballot, and they feel overwhelmed.

With only 26,000 ballots received as of Monday, it could be one of the lowest turnout elections in recent memory. Some 198,000 ballots were mailed out on March 13, leaving 172,000 ballots still outstanding.

To compare, turnout for the mayoral election in 2015 was 54,275 for the first round, and 70,516 for the runoff.

But a major push by liberal groups such as the Alaska Center for the Environment is scheduled for the next few days, with volunteers gathering at phone bank events to call known Democrat-leaning voters and urge them to get their ballots in.

Proposition 1 opponents, which include the ACLU and Planned Parenthood, are also banging on doors to get ballots in from voters who favor gender-neutral public restrooms.

These groups are receiving voter identification lists from the Municipal Election Office each day that are updated with the new ballots received. They know who has voted and who is still sitting on their ballots.

They marry the information up with their “known Democrat” data, and then jump on the phone to call the voters they like.

Conservative groups can use the same tactic, but appear to be outnumbered in volunteers and strategy. Local elections in Alaska are heavily dominated by liberals, as Anchorage’s recent record shows.

THESE PEOPLE HAVE CAST THEIR BALLOTS

A review of the most recent voting list of 26,000 who cast ballots as of March 26 shows that:

  • Ethan Berkowitz voted but Alice Rogoff has not.
  • Mark Begich and Tom Begich voted. So has Nick, “the Republican Begich.”
  • Tony and Susan Knowles voted.
  • Former Mayor Rick Mystrom voted.
  • Suzanne Downing voted, while radio talk show host Dave Stieren has not (out of town).

THE BEGICH BACK STORY

With a low turnout, Must Read Alaska readers in Anchorage have an opportunity to influence the course of the election.

But several voters MRAK surveyed this morning — voters who had not returned their ballots — were unsure about Prop. 10, Mayor Ethan Berkowitz’ plan to sell ML&P to Chugach Electric.

The plan to sell the city’s utility was put in place by former Mayor Mark Begich and current Mayor Berkowitz, and requires a change to the city charter, so that only 51 percent of voters are needed to vote in the affirmative for the billion-dollar sale to be approved. This key feature of Prop 10 is not disclosed on the ballot.

This is classic Mark Begich, the mayor who famously proposed a change to the city charter when he was running for reelection in 2003 as mayor, so that he would only have to get 45 percent of the vote in what was a three-way race between himself, Rick Mystrom, and George Wuerch.

That year, Begich won by just 18 votes, which was 45.03 percent, when voters approved that charter change during the same election.

Trickiness pays off. Had voters not approved the charter change, there would have been a runoff between Begich and Wuerch, and Wuerch would have picked up the Mystrom votes for a possible win.

THE BEGICH PLAYBOOK AT WORK AGAIN

It’s a strategy that worked for Begich, and he is using it again, as he works his contract with Chugach Electric to pull off a deal that has had little public scrutiny.

Proposition 10 asks voters to once again change the city charter so that only 51 percent of the vote is needed, rather than 60 percent. Oddly, nowhere in the proposition language does it inform voters that they are lowering the threshold from 60 to 51 percent. That little detail is buried in the underlying ordinance but not disclosed on the ballot. Trickiness may pay off yet again.

Begich is said to be making $12,000 a month on his lucrative Chugach Electric contract, and it will take years for the deal to be completed. His contract could be worth high six figures by the time the sale is actually completed.

Must Read Alaska reader Ray Kreig wondered aloud why the media has been so meek in its coverage of the sale of ML&P to Chugach Electric.

“A number of us former Chugach Electric board officers and directors are really puzzled as to why the Anchorage media have a complete news blackout regarding the views of very informed electric utility voices for a ‘No vote on Prop 10,'” he said.

Kreig pointed to resources developed by the Alaska Policy Forum and a statement from former RCA Commissioner Dave Harbour.

Those with electric utility experience opposed to Prop. 10 include three former Chugach Electric board chairs/presidents, including Ray Kreig, two former Chugach Electric board officers, one former Chugach Electric board director, recently resigned ML&P Commission Chair Judy Brady, and former RCA Commissioner Dave Harbour. Former Mayor Dan Sullivan has also come out in opposition to the sale.

Mayoral candidate Rebecca Logan has raised concerns about the transaction.

The question may come up today at 4 pm, when Rebecca Logan is set to debate Ethan Berkowitz on the Dave Stieren Show, in a format that allows them to ask each other questions. Only Logan has confirmed her attendance.

Wonder how Must Read Alaska’s Suzanne Downing voted? Shoot a question to [email protected]

Go big money: Permanent Fund dividend formula restored

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FORTY DIFFERENT REASONS FOR VOTING IT UP OR DOWN

The Alaska House on Monday voted to fund this year’s Alaska Permanent Fund dividend at $2,700.

If it stands — and that’s a big if — that’s what qualifying Alaskans would get in October. The deadline to apply for this year’s Permanent Fund is March 31.

The move to restore the formula-based approach to the dividend came through an amendment to an amendment to the operating budget on Monday.

After several other amendments to the amendment, a version was approved 21 to 19 that adds between $450 million and $900 million (depending on how one calculates it) to a budget that already has a $2.6 billion gap, digging a hole that is more than $3 billion deep.

The budget patch would come from two places: the $2 billion that will be left in the Constitutional Budget Reserve and then some portion of the Permanent Fund’s $17 billion Earnings Reserve Fund, which is what is available for spending.

But the operating budget as a whole itself must pass, and getting the 21 votes to pass a budget that has bulked up with everything from a $500,000 Vitamin D study to unlimited authority for the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation to go it alone with third-party money, may prove difficult. It takes a simple majority vote to get into that Earnings Reserve Account, something that also has election-year ramifications.

With 19 days left in regular session, the House majority appears to be fracturing, still unable to pass an operating budget, and having its liberal members vote all over the map on the question of how much to fund the dividend shows that it’s not a binding caucus.

The disarray in the House under Speaker Bryce Edgmon leaves the Senate little time to process the operating budget through the required committees, vote on it, and then negotiate a settlement with the House through conference committee.

ELECTION YEAR NOISE-TO-SIGNAL RATIO

Politicizing the dividend for the first time in history, in 2016 Gov. Walker used his veto pen to set Alaskans’ portion of oil royalties at what he thought would be a tolerable amount. The $666.4 million he vetoed from their dividends stayed in the Permanent Fund’s Earnings Reserve Account and earned interest.

“If we don’t make a change in the dividend program, it goes away in four years,” Walker said two years ago.

But in 2018, the governor could be forced into vetoing half of the dividend once again, if the Senate goes along with the House’s decision to fully fund it.

And because it’s an election year, Walker could be forced into a corner by his opponents.

Many Democrats want to see Mark Begich run for governor, and the Permanent Fund dividend is a way of putting the “independent” Walker in a box: If he vetoes the dividend again, he may find no way to climb out of his political malaise. Walker won by joining with the Alaska Democratic Party to create a hybrid independent-Democrat ticket that won against incumbent Sean Parnell, a Republican.

Recent polling by Dittman Research shows that Walker’s popularity with voters has taken a dive, with only 41 percent prepared to vote for him again this year. Another poll by Morning Consult shows him as the least popular governor in the nation.

WHERE DID THE YES VOTES COME FROM?

If the dividend amount stands at $2,700, it would be the largest awarded in the Permanent Fund’s history, although not when inflation is calculated.

The yes votes on $2,700 dividend went across caucus lines: Speaker Bryce Edgmon, Neal Foster, Scott Kawasaki, Gabrielle LeDoux, John Lincoln, Justin Parish, Ivy Spohnholz, Geran Tarr, Chris Tuck, and Tiffany Zulkosky in the liberal majority and David Eastman, DeLena Johnson, Charisse Millett, Mark Neuman, George Rauscher, Lora Reinbold, Dan Saddler, Colleen Sullivan-Leonard, Dave Talerico, Cathy Tilton, and Tammie Wilson in the conservative minority.

All House members are up for re-election along with the governor. Ten of the 20 Senate members face re-election in 2018.

[Related news: Senate Democrats walk out rather than vote on spending cap]

The five steps to a gun-free society

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IT’S EASY: FIRST CHANGE THE CONSTITUTION, THEN ENFORCE

March for Our Lives tapped into a fear of violent death, something no student should have to think about. But in fact school shootings have declined.

So when 13-year-olds tell American voters, “”Guns are for the police and the government,” what are we to make of it?

Five easy steps toward a gun-free America, a two-minute playbook by Reason Magazine, is a video everyone should watch, but especially teens who are interested in gun control.

This is how gun control gets done:

 

 

Divining data from the Anchorage mail-in election

NO EXCUSE FOR NOT VOTING, UNLESS YOU’RE 100

Rebecca Logan, the leading conservative candidate for Anchorage mayor, said she talked to a 100-year-old man over the weekend. He is a voter who has never missed an Anchorage election, “but he refuses to mail in his ballot. He said he has seen way too many things in his life,” Logan said. And he’s not able to get into an accessible voting center either.

She talked to another couple who have waited three weeks for their absentee ballots to arrive.

Logan and volunteers contacted more than 3,000 Anchorage voters over the weekend to urge them to get their ballots in the mail, in a drop box, or into an accessible voting center. They heard many complaints about ballots that were promised but never arrived, and a lot of frustration with the new mail-in election.

Polling from over the weekend shows that Logan is neck-and-neck with Mayor Ethan Berkowitz, a liberal Democrat who is running for a second term.

Ethan Berkowitz, mayor of Anchorage, speaking at the 2016 Alaska Democratic Convention.

ANCHORAGE VOTING INTELLIGENCE

  • 20,230 Anchorage ballots were received by the Muni election office by March 23, out of the 198,000 ballots mailed to voters on March 13. It’s a 9.27 percent turnout so far for an election that ends April 3. Not impressive but the election is only halfway there.
  • Last April 4, 49,370 voted of the 212,782 registered Anchorage voters, a 23 percent turnout that decided six Anchorage Assembly seats and eight ballot propositions.
  • The election office processed 4,000 ballots on Saturday. A flood more is expected today, as many as 9,000.
  • Chugiak turnout is 9.72 percent, trailing South Anchorage by 4 percent. This area used to vote on par with South Anchorage.
  • Eagle River turnout is 8.86 percent, trailing South Anchorage by 5 percent. This area was  also historically similar to South Anchorage.
  • Taku Campbell also lags behind South Anchorage by 5.5 percent.
  • Anchorage is at mid-point for ballot collections and so far, fewer than half of the voters have mailed in their ballots than voted in the last election.
  • Turnout for the mayoral election in 2009 was 58,233 for the first round, and 55,000 for the runoff.
  • Turnout for the mayoral election in 2015 was 54,275 for the first round and 70,516 for the runoff.

PRECINCT CURIOSITIES

Voting totals from various precincts as of Friday:

  • Eagle River 1&2 = 287
  • Chugiak = 101
  • Peters Creek 1&2 = 416
  • Oceanview 1&2 = 453
  • Goldenview = 421
  • Bayshore = 337
  • Downtown 1-4 = 414

WHO IS VOTING SO FAR

MRAK reviewed available data over the weekend. (Readers can be assured this is not confidential information and that the ACLU has the same data and is working it very hard via phone banks and door-to-door. If the Left hasn’t knocked on your door to remind you to vote, it’s because they know you are a conservative and they prefer that you just let it slip your mind).

  • The gender of those voting is about 50-50 male/female (yes, we’re still basically binary)
  • 74 percent of voters are over 50 years old.
  • 50 percent of the ballot drop boxes are located on public school property, making it convenient for members of the NEA to get their ballots in on time. Here are drop box locations.

— Anchorage School District Education Center, 5530 E. Northern Lights Blvd.
— Bartlett High School, 1101 Golden Bear Drive
— Clark Middle School, 150 Bragaw St.
— Dimond High School, 2909 W. 88th Ave.
— Fairview Community Recreation Center, 1121 E. 10th Ave.
— Loussac Library, 3600 Denali St.
— Service High School, 5577 Abbott Road
— Spenard Community Recreation Center, 2020 W. 48th Ave.
— South Anchorage High School, 13400 Elmore Road
— UAA Alaska Airlines Center, 3550 Providence Drive
— Eagle River Town Center, 12001 Business Blvd.
— Girdwood Community Center, 250 Egloff Drive

 

ACCESSIBLE VOTING CENTERS AND HOURS 

Anchorage City Hall

632 West 6th Avenue, Room #155

All Municipal ballots will be available at this location.

Monday, March 26 through Friday, March 30 from 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

Monday, April 2, from 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

Election Day, April 3, from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.

 

ZJ Loussac Library

3600 Denali Street, First Floor

All Municipal ballots will be available at this location.

Monday, March 26 through Saturday, March 31 from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Sunday, April 1, from Noon to 5:00 p.m.

Monday, April 2, from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Election Day, April 3, from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.

 

MOA Election Center

619 East Ship Creek Ave, Suite 100 at Door D on the east side of the building

All Municipal ballots will be available at this location.

Monday, March 26 through Friday, March 30 from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.

Monday, April 2, from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.

Election Day, April 3, from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.

 

O’Malley’s on the Green

3651 O’Malley Road

All Municipal ballots will be available at this location.

Monday, March 26 through Friday, March 30 from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Monday, April 2, from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Election Day, April 3, from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. 

 

Eagle River Town Center

Community Room #170

Same building as the Library

12001 Business Boulevard, Eagle River

Only Chugiak-Eagle River ballots will be available at this location.

Monday, March 26 through Friday, March 30 from 8a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

Monday, April 2, from 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

Election Day, April 3, from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.

Dittman poll shows Dunleavy over Walker

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A Dittman Research poll conducted between Feb. 26 and March 4 of 809 Alaskans asked several questions about the 2018 election for governor, and one question stands out as important bellwether:

Who would you most likely vote for for governor if the election were between Republican Mike Dunleavy and non-affiliated Bill Walker?

Must Read Alaska is not privy to all the public sentiment information gathered by the Dittman poll, but it appears the name recognition challenge Dunleavy had in late 2017 has been overcome to a great extent.

Dunleavy for Alaska has run ads on television during the Super Bowl and Winter Olympics, and has had an active radio presence statewide, along with social media.

The responses to the question – when picking just between Dunleavy and Walker – were:

Mike Dunleavy – 47 percent

Bill Walker – 41 percent

Unsure or someone else – 12 percent

In the past 50 years, Dittman Research has accurately predicted the winners of Alaska gubernatorial and senatorial races 100 percent of the time. In this poll, Dittman is doing research on behalf of the Dunleavy for Alaska independent expenditure group, whose chair is Terre Gales. The group has raised over $500,000 so far to make its case that Mike Dunleavy is the strongest candidate in the field.

A separate poll — by an unknown firm — was conducted over the weekend and asked if respondents were likely to vote for Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Mike Dunleavy, or former Gov. Sean Parnell, who the pollster said was unaffiliated (he is registered Republican).

An earlier poll by Morning Consult showed that Walker is the least popular governor in the nation who is facing reelection.

China tariff retaliation won’t affect Alaska salmon — yet

COULD AK-CHINA NATURAL GAS DEAL MAKE SEAFOOD A FUTURE TARGET?

Alaska seafood has escaped the growing trade war with China, for now.

Friday’s announcement that China will slap higher tariffs on American-made goods, steel pipe, and agricultural products hit Iowa hog farmers and California orchards.

Seafood is not on the list, a relief to the Alaska commercial fishing sector.

Yet it’s a warning of just how much leverage a powerhouse like China could have over a small economic province like Alaska in an era when the state’s fragile economy is growing increasingly dependent on China as a trading partner.

‘PIPELINE-POOR’ POLITICS

With Gov. Bill Walker now attempting to make deals to sell Alaska natural gas to China, the state could become heavily indebted to the Chinese under the Walker “Pipeline-Poor Plan” whereby Alaska borrows tens of billions of dollars from China and turns over most of the construction and operation of the AK-LNG project to Chinese entities.

In the deal that is only superficially understood by Alaskans, China would also own the rights to 75 percent of Alaska’s gas from the North Slope.

The die has not yet been cast, but negotiations are underway between Alaska Gasline Development Corporation and Chinese banks, financial institutions, and the Chinese government.

[Read: Big reveal: Deal is on with China, gasline]

HOW A TRADE WAR COULD COME BACK TO BITE SALMON FISHERS

The China Ministry of Commerce issued a list of 128 items it will target for increased tariffs, a first shot back over the bow of the U.S.

States such as California (fruit, nuts, wine), Wisconsin (90 percent of U.S. ginseng), and Iowa, North Carolina, and Minnesota (pork) are going to feel the sting from China’s decision.

China, the world’s largest pork producer, doesn’t actually need Iowa pork, making it an easy target. For now, China likes Alaska’s salmon as a commodity, but increasingly doesn’t need our wild-caught protein. Alternatives in the farmed salmon market are exploding across the world.

Between 80 to 90 percent of wild-caught Alaska seafood is sent to China and re-exported as fillets and fish sticks to the U.S., Europe and Asia. China’s cheap labor in Qingdao, a seafood processing and trading hub, shaves about 80 cents a pound off of salmon that’s had its pin bones removed.

Alaska seafood processing jobs, which once upon a time covered everything from “slime line” to canning, now are reduced to heading and gutting. The fish is then frozen and sent to China, where pin bone removal is left to those making pennies on the dollar.

With Alaska competing with farmed salmon around the world, that calculus could change in a few short years. Fish lovers may value wild, Alaska salmon, yet many are settling for an acceptable, cheaper farmed fish. In fact, consumers have adapted to the milder flavor of farmed salmon, and farming operations have responded to the demand by advancing projects from Chile to South Florida. They are becoming less dependent on antibiotics and are now marketing how sustainable and environmentally friendly they are.

Norway, Chile, and Australia are importing more salmon to China, with Norway taking the prize for the most salmon imported to China. New free trade agreements with European countries are scheduled for a May roll-out, and the 10 percent tariffs on imported salmon and other seafood are expected to drop to as low as zero.

And the pace of change in seafood markets is staggering: The amount of Norwegian salmon that China is importing grew by 1,600 percent in 2017.

China is getting in on the farmed salmon action. In 2016, Rizhao Res Mo Ze Feng Yu Ye Ltd Co., announced it will open salmon farming on the Rizhao coast in the Yellow Sea, water that connects China and Korea.

The company plans to produce 20,000 tons of salmon per year. If China’s coastal provinces become more adept at salmon farming, the value of Alaska salmon could drop dramatically.

A photo from the International Space Station of fish farms on the coast of China’s northeast province of Liaoning, extending four miles out into the Yellow Sea. 

Russia is still the largest exporter to China of seafood, followed by the U.S., Norway, Canada, Chile, Indonesia, Australia, Vietnam, Thailand and New Zealand.

THE LIST OF CHINA’S TARIFF TARGETS

The list of U.S. products that China has increased tariffs on (MRAK ran China’s officially published list through Google translate, and has not verified for accuracy)

  • Dried coconut
  • Coconut without inner shell (endocarp)
  • Other coconut
  • Unhulled Brazil fruit
  • Shelled Brazilian Fruit
  • Unshelled Cashew
  • Shelled Cashew
  • Unshelled almonds
  • Shelled almonds
  • Unshelled hazelnuts
  • Hazelnut
  • Unshelled walnut
  • Walnut
  • Unshelled chestnut
  • Unhulled Chestnuts
  • Unhulled Pistachio Nuts
  • Unshelled Pistachio Nuts
  • Unhulled Macadamia Nuts
  • Unshelled Macadamia Nuts (Hawaiian Nuts )
  • Betel nut
  • Pine nuts
  • Unlisted fresh or dried nuts
  • Fresh or dried plantains
  • Fresh or dried bananas
  • Fresh or dried dates
  • Fresh or dried figs
  • Fresh or dried pineapple
  • Fresh or dried avocado
  • Fresh or dried guava
  • Fresh or dried mango
  • Fresh or dried mangosteen
  • Fresh or dried orange
  • Mandarin orange and Satsuma orange
  • Clementine orange
  • Verkin orange and similar hybrid citrus
  • Grapefruit, including pomelo
  • Lemons and limes
  • Unlisted citrus fruits
  • Fresh grapes
  • Raisins
  • Fresh watermelon
  • Fresh cantaloupe
  • Papaya
  • Fresh apples
  • Fresh pears and pears
  • Other fresh pears
  • Fresh sour cherries
  • Other fresh cherries
  • Peach, including nectarine
  • Fresh plum and plum
  • Fresh strawberries
  • Fresh raspberry, blackberry, mulberry and loganberry
  • Fresh cranberry and cowberry
  • Kiwifruit
  • Fresh Durian
  • Persimmon
  • Fresh Litchi
  • Fresh Longan
  • Bright red Maodan
  • Fresh sweet lychee
  • Fresh Carambola
  • Fresh lotus fig
  • Fresh Pitaya
  • Fruits not listed
  • Frozen Strawberry
  • Frozen raspberry, blackberry, mulberry, loganberry, currant (gallon) and gooseberry
  • Frozen fruits and nuts, not listed
  • Temporarily preserved cherries
  • Other temporarily preserved fruits and nuts
  • Dried apricots
  • Mei Qiang and Li Gan
  • Dried apples
  • Dried longan and meat
  • Dried persimmons
  • Red dates
  • Dried Litchi
  • Unlisted dried fruit
  • Sparkling wine
  • Other fresh grapes brewed in containers of two litres or less or alcohol-inhibiting brewing
  • Grape juice
  • Wines made from other fresh grapes packed in two-liter or more but not more than 10-litre containers, or alcohol-suppressed brewed grape juice
  • Wines made from other fresh grapes loaded in more than 10 containers or alcohol-inhibited brewed grape juice
  • Wine grape juice other than item 20.09
  • The third type of modified ethanol
  • Any concentration of modified ethanol and other alcohol
  • American ginseng
  • Other fresh ginseng
  • Unlisted ginseng
  • Fresh or cold boned pig forelegs, pig hind legs and their meat
  • Other fresh or cold pork
  • Other frozen whole head and half pork
  • Frozen pork bones, pig hind legs and their meat
  • Other frozen pork
  • Frozen pork liver
  • Other frozen pork chops
  • Stainless steel oil and gas pipeline pipe, 215.9mm ≤ outside diameter ≤ 406.4mm 89 stainless steel oil and gas pipeline pipe, 114.3mm < outside diameter <215.9mm 90 stainless steel oil and gas pipeline pipe, outside diameter ≤ 114.3mm
  • stainless steel oil and gas pipeline pipe, outside diameter > 406.4mm
  • Other steel oil and gas pipeline pipes, 215.9mm ≤ outside diameter ≤ 406.4mm 93 Other steel oil and gas pipeline pipe, 114.3mm < outside diameter <215.9mm 94 Other petroleum and natural gas seamless pipe pipe, outside diameter ≤ 114.3mm
  • Other steel oil and gas seamless pipe, outside diameter > 406.4mm
  • Stainless Steel Drilling Oil and Gas Drill Pipe, Outside Diameter ≤168.3mm 97 Stainless Steel Drilling Oil and Gas Drill Pipe, Outside Diameter>168.3mm 98 Other Steel Drilling Oil and Gas Drill Pipe, Outside Diameter≤168.3mm
  • Other Steel Drilling Oil and Gas Drill pipe, outer diameter >168.3mm
  • stainless steel seamless casing and conduit for drilling oil or natural gas
  • Other seamless steel casings and conduits for oil and gas drilling with a yield strength of less than 552 MPa
  • Other seamless steel casings and ducts for oil and gas drilling with yield strengths equal to or greater than 552 MPa but less than 758 MPa
  • Corrosion-resisting oil and natural gas seamless pipes and ducts for other steel drills with a yield strength of 758 MPa or more
  • Seamless boiler tubes for cold drawn or cold rolled iron or ordinary steel
  • Cold drawn or cold-rolled iron or plain steel seamless geologic drill pipe, casing 106 Undrawn cold-drawn or cold rolled iron or plain steel seamless circular cross-section pipe
  • Non-cold drawn or cold rolled iron or ordinary steel seamless boiler tubes
  • Non-cold drawn or cold-rolled or ordinary steel seamless geologic drill pipe, casing
  • Unlisted non-cold drawn or cold-rolled iron or ordinary steel seamless circular cross-section tubes
  • Cold drawn or cold rolled stainless steel seamless boiler tubes
  • Unlisted cold rolled or cold rolled stainless steel seamless circular section tubes
  • Non-cold-drawn or cold-rolled stainless steel seamless boiler tubes
  • Unlisted non-cold drawn or cold-rolled stainless steel seamless circular cross-section tubes
  • Cold-drawn or cold-rolled other alloy steel seamless boiler tubes
  • Cold drawn or cold-rolled other alloy steel seamless geologic drill pipe, casing
  • Cold rolled or cold-rolled alloy steel seamless circular cross-section tubes, not specified
  • Non-cold-drawn or cold-rolled other alloy steel seamless boiler tubes
  • Non-cold-drawn or cold-rolled other alloy steel seamless geologic drill pipe, casing
  • Unlisted non-cold drawn or cold-rolled alloy steel seamless circular cross-section tubes
  • Other seamless steel tubes and hollow profiles (excluding cast iron)
  • The seventh category scrap aluminum
  • Aluminum scrap