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The pollsters agree: Don Young for the win

EXCEPT IVAN MOORE — HE’S THE OUTLIER (AS USUAL)

Cook’s Political Report, Inside Elections, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball all put Congressman Don Young in the “likely win” category for the U.S. House. Don Young has been winning that seat since 1973.

And yet, according to Anchorage-based pollster Ivan Moore, Alyse Galvin, running as a Democrat, is within four points of Young.

The mainstream media gave that poll credence, so Must Read Alaska looked into it.

Can that number be trusted?

Galvin won 19,650 votes in her Democrat primary in August. That’s 2,671 more than Steve Lindbeck won in 2016.

But Young received 44,247 in his primary, a gain of 5,269 from his 2016 primary race votes. Young did better than Galvin by double in that measurement.

The Primary Election includes a closed ballot for Republicans, which means that many voters who like Congressman Young did not vote for him in August because they voted the Democrats’ open ballot.

However, in November, any voter can vote for Galvin or Young. Young has always enjoyed the support of Democrats in rural Alaska, as well as working class urban Alaskans who register Democrat. He has a lot of union support, too.

[Read: Alyse Galvin gets her radical on in Oakland in this video]

Then there are the Nonpartisans and Undeclareds — the N and the P voters. Will they go with Galvin or Young? Those are the swing voters that make polling difficult in Alaska. Nonpartisans typically vote Democrat, while Undeclareds typically split for conservative candidates, if they vote at all.

FiveThirtyEight.com says Young has a 75 percent chance of winning. That Nat Silver number is based on two Ivan Moore polls and one Lake Research Partners poll. Lake Research polls for Democrats, and is working for Galvin’s campaign. Ivan Moore works for Democrats as well, and generally polls for Jim Lottsfeldt, the partisan strategist used by Democrats in Alaska.

Yet even the aggregate of those polls show Young winning:

THE DEMOCRATS’ PROPAGANDA MACHINE

Why is the Ivan Moore poll interesting to politicos? Why did mainstream media bite on a partisan poll?

The Democratic Congressional Coordinating Committee hasn’t put money into the Galvin campaign yet, but a close poll could lure in the money. This is partly propaganda, then, that liberal pollsters are peddling on behalf of Galvin, who is likely not even close to 44.9 percent, if her Primary numbers are to be used as a gauge of the one polling that matters — the election.

Will the propaganda work?

Here’s what the experts say:

What I told health care policy experts in Anchorage

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THE BUREAUCRACY IS A TERRIBLE HEALER

It all starts with government intervention. Once government starts making policy around health care, it starts down a long road that gets swampier and swampier.

The result for consumers (those are people who need doctors and nurses and medicine) is that they require health care navigators, something that became popular during the rollout of Obamacare. Remember health care navigators?

Health care navigators are still a thing. They continue to help people get through the increasingly complex medical system that government has fostered. The system itself has become so bad, it’s like the Fire Swamp from The Princess Bride.

In the course of three generations, we have gone from “going to the doctor” to becoming a part of a health care “system” that has in many ways served us well, but at an enormous cost. Policy and regulation has benefits and is also crushing the very healers that want to help people get well.

To the conservative brain, it’s almost as if liberals are trying to break the entire health care provider network so that universal health care will become the law of the land. It will be the only alternative in a world where Americans have come to expect a government solution.

And when that happens, it’s the government making the decisions about how much care you receive. You’ll be entrusting the government with your very life, from your slippery entry into the world until your uncomfortable exit.

These are some of the topics I covered in my portion of a panel at the State of Reform conference in Anchorage on Wednesday. I shared the panel microphone with Matt Buxton of MidnightSunAk.com and Nat Herz of Alaska Public Media. We had 45 minutes to explain how the media in Alaska views and covers health care topics.

What we showed the audience is that news writers have no idea how to fix health care costs and availability in Alaska.

At the end of the panel, we did a rapid speed-dating question of the audience to find out what they want from the media coverage on health care.

They want more. They want better. They want more informed coverage.  And, likely, they want someone else to pay for it.

But as with health care, the media landscape in Alaska is shallow, overstretched, and underfunded, and that was abundantly clear to them — they were offered two bloggers and a public broadcasting reporter who covers energy — not health care — for the media panel. The pickings for writers were, perhaps, slim. The one writer who typically covers health care the most will be leaving the Anchorage Daily News soon.  One third of the news staff has been laid off there. There are no writers left in Alaska who have the luxury of being health care specialists.

ONWARD TO THE TOPICS

The health care professionals we spoke to were especially interested in Alaska news writers covering these topics:

Must Read Alaska will endeavor to get to these topics in the coming weeks, so long as we are not forced to navigate the three terrors of the Fire Swamp.

Alyse Galvin gets her radical on in Oakland

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LISTEN AS SHE TRIES TO STOP HERSELF FROM CALLING A WOMAN A ‘HER’

Alyse Galvin, running for Congress for Alaska under the Democrats’ banner, posted a video interview she did in Oakland, Calif., where she corrects herself after referring to a young woman as a “her,” and finds fault with homeschooling.

The proper terminology is to call someone a “they,” Galvin tells the viewers, scolding herself.

She is running against Congressman Don Young in a bid to represent Alaskans in the U.S. House.

In the half-hour coffee shop interview, Galvin reaffirms the need to dismantle the patriarchy, how Christian homes are bad environments, how homeschooling needs to be regulated, and how “gender theory” should be systematically enforced in schools.

Dunleavy advances in latest Ivan Moore poll

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RACE TO THE FINISH LINE IN 27 DAYS

Alaska pollster Ivan Moore says candidate Mike Dunleavy has stretched his lead in the sprint for governor of Alaska.

Dunleavy gained two points in support over a poll released in late September. As of Oct. 6, Dunleavy is now winning a comfortable 46.5 percent of likely votes.

Mark Begich has dropped from 29 percent to 22.6 percent, according to Moore, swapping places with Bill Walker, who went from 22.9 percent to 27 percent.

As for the undecided voters, they remained within a margin of error at under 4 percent.

When paired one-on-one, Dunleavy would crush Begich by nearly 14 points — 54.5 percent to 40.8 percent, and would clobber Walker by 10 points —  52.9 percent to 43 percent.

Moore’s polls tend to skew in favor of Democrats. In April, Moore had Walker at 51 percent and Dunleavy at 44 percent. That was before Begich joined the race in June.

But in 2014, Moore was wildly off, showing Begich beating Dan Sullivan by 6 points in late October, while all other polls showed Sullivan winning for Senate. He ultimately won by 2.2 points, making Moore’s poll off by more than 8 points.

But even if there is an 8-point miss, the Moore poll still has Dunleavy winning in any match up.

Anchorage climate change plan rolled out today

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A community kickoff event for the Anchorage Climate Action Plan (CAP) is planned for Tuesday, Oct. 9 at 6 pm at the Loussac Library.

The Municipality of Anchorage partnered with the University of Alaska Anchorage to create a plan to reduce the city’s contribution to cause climate change and identify ways to adapt to climate impacts.

Pizza and ice cream will be served. To learn more about the Anchorage Climate Action Plan, visit www.muni.org/ClimateActionPlan.

On a side note, the carbon footprint of a scoop of ice cream — including cows, transportation and freezing the product — add up to roughly a quarter of a pound of carbon dioxide. A slice of pepperoni pizza has a carbon dioxide equivalent score of 644.

In a city with rampant crime, high taxes, high unemployment, and an extended recession, the focus of the city government appears to be what the city can do to reduce the climate impact of its 300,000 residents.

Gov. Bill Walker unveiled the State’s final climate change plan last month, which consisted primarily of more planning. Originally the state plan was to include a carbon tax, but that plan is on hold.

Other cities around the nation have unveiled such plans, which typically include:

  • Cataloging greenhouse gas emissions by source, such as buildings, transportation, electrical generation.
  • An emission reduction goal, often expressed as a percentage based on a baseline year.
  • Various strategies to achieve the needed reductions in greenhouse gases.

Who will pay?

THE ANCHORAGE DAILY PLANET

While shocked Alaska Republicans mull their response to Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s break with her party in opposing Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court, other Alaskans may start wondering what it may mean for the state.

Alaska GOP chief Tuckerman Babcock says he intends to convene the party’s entire state central committee to decide what to do about her voting “present” during the confirmation. The party can huff and puff, but its options are limited. Reprimand. Pull party support. Write a report or letter. None of that is likely to ruffle her skirt. The reality is that she is not up for re-election for four more years – an eternity in politics.

While a steaming GOP sorts out what it wants to do, the rest of us – including Republicans – should be very concerned about her decision. The federal government, after all, spends billions in Alaska and controls almost 62 percent – 224 million acres – of Alaska’s 375 million acres.

It also has its fingers in almost every aspect of Alaska life: Crucial land management and resource extraction decisions that will affect the state for decades to come; access issues; military bases and regulatory controls. Then, there areas such as fish and wildlife management and trust relationships with Alaska Natives. The list seems endless.

Read the rest at Anchorage Daily Planet.

Shocker: LeDoux lags ‘Write-In Jake Sloan’ in fundraising report

In the battle to retain her District 15 (JBER-Muldoon) seat, Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux fell short in her 30-day fundraising report. Far short.

She raised just $15,000, and has had to loan her campaign $10,000 from her personal funds. The woman who is known as a fundraising Goliath has never had to do that before.

That personal loan gives her a cash advantage over Jake Sloan, who is running an unusual write-in campaign against the powerful House Rules Committee chair who has been identified as running a corrupt Primary campaign.

LeDoux

A State investigation is underway and one of LeDoux’s lead campaign operatives from California died of a stroke as soon as the veil came off of the voter fraud that was associated with LeDoux’s primary win. That death has complicated the investigation.

[Read: Criminal investigation now underway]

Write-In Jake Sloan raised nearly $19,000, which is 22 percent more than LeDoux raised since the primary. But has a hill to climb in that he is running a write-in campaign against a well-known incumbent and because LeDoux has spent $103,000 overall to get re-elected.

However, LeDoux spent most of it in the primary, which she lost on Election Day and which she won with the help of questionable absentee ballots. Her funds are somewhat depleted, which is why she needed to loan her campaign running money.

Sloan has to build name recognition, buy signs, and educate voters to write in his name and fill in the bubble. And he has less than a month to educate those voters.

But Sloan is encouraged by the fact that during the primary election, Rep. LeDoux lost with regular voters to Aaron Weaver, who never ran an actual campaign. LeDoux only won because of the enormous absentee ballot effort she ran with the help of the now-deceased Charlie Chang.

[Read Charlie Chang is dead, LeDoux says. But he voted.]

Many of those LeDoux votes turned out to be fraudulent, and others who voted for LeDoux may now regret their vote after learning about the possibly criminal capers involved to stack the ballot box for LeDoux. One of those fraudulent votes was from Mr. Chang, who was a resident of Fresno, Calif.

LeDoux has also lost her key campaign supporters and is now relying on the help of a former Alaska House legislative aide who has moved to Georgia but who her campaign flew back to Anchorage to manage LeDoux’s campaign. One hopes he has good life insurance — Thomas Brown. He used to work on her staff when she served as chair of the House Judiciary Committee. He’s now on her campaign payroll.

Sloan, on the other hand, is relying on his wife Leigh, and an ever-expanding list of volunteers who are going door-to-door with him.

Several legislators have walked the neighborhoods with Sloan, including Rep. Tammie Wilson of North Pole, who drove down for the occasion. Purple Heart recipient Passert Lee of the Hmong community, has also helped Sloan get introduced to the Hmong community, many of whom were victimized by the LeDoux campaign in the Primary.

On NextDoor.com, which is a neighborhood social media network that is widely used across Anchorage, a flurry of complaints has arisen over somebody putting LeDoux signs in people’s yards — signs that are clearly unwelcome, according to the multiple reports that have been posted.

Bearly legal at Capitol

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Megan Wallace photo

A chubby black bear wandering up the ramp to Alaska’s Capitol prompted the Alaska Legislature to dryly post on its web site that the bear was in violation of the building’s “no pets policy.”

The bear’s visit to the building on Thursday was part of its tour through downtown Juneau, where it sauntered down Main Street in broad daylight.

 

Two whalers lost off of Barrow after successful hunt

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A whaling captain and crew member from Utqiagvik (Barrow) have been lost in an whaling accident. They had a successful whale hunt and were bringing the whale back in when the boat capsized.

Details are not available yet as the community is gathering and family is being notified.

These are the first whaling deaths in as many as 20 years in the North Slope community.

“North Slope Borough Mayor Harry K. Brower Jr. Is asking that media respect the wishes of the whaling community and whaling captains of Utqiagvik as the community mourns the loss of two crew members,” said a statement from the community this morning.

This story will be updated.