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Begich’s positions belie believability

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By WIN GRUENING
SENIOR CONTRIBUTOR

Gubernatorial hopeful Mark Begich has strived to paint his candidacy and his priorities as the solution to revive our state economy.  But many of his positions or those of his backers do not support this claim.

Some of the same people and organizations that endorsed Bill Walker’s ”independent” bid for Governor four years ago are now begrudgingly supporting Begich.  While this may serve to temper Begich’s positions on some issues during the campaign, it’s likely Begich will swerve further left if elected.

Should a Begich governorship come to pass, we will surely see a proliferation of policies designed to strangle real economic growth and diversification.

Yes, Begich has promised to continue work on the gas pipeline, but this is still at the dream stage and years away from feasibility.  His campaign website talks about investments in infrastructure but, when pressed, Begich talks about deferred maintenance – not projects that would create new jobs and expand the economy in Alaska.

When asked about the single shovel-ready project that would add infrastructure and diversify the economy while lowering steep transportation costs and putting Alaskans to work– Juneau Access – Begich says he is against it.

While Begich says he wants to stabilize our state budget, he has doubled down on his commitment to Medicaid expansion – arguably one of Alaska’s most damaging fiscal mistakes.  As a deciding vote on Obamacare in the U.S. Senate, there is no question Begich believes that Medicaid expansion was a good thing for Alaska despite the spike in medical premiums and the havoc it has caused to our state budget.

Let’s not forget, in 2015 Alaskans were promised the State would save $100 million over six years by expanding Medicaid coverage to all able-bodied working-age adults.  Instead, the opposite happened. In 2018, after enrollment was 150% over projections, the Legislature was presented with a $100 million supplemental appropriation to fund additional enrollees.  Without some controls put on expenditures, these costs will continue to explode.

Instead of looking for ways to restore the PFD, Begich advocates diverting significant revenues from the Permanent Fund into state education spending.  Yet, according to a recent report by King Economics Group, the current level of spending per student is 17% higher than FY2006 after adjusting for inflation and student population.  Despite that, Alaska’s student achievement levels rank our state among the lowest in the nation.

Begich has taken reductions in government expenditures off the table, instead preferring to talk generally about “reforming the delivery of government services”.  He would force Alaskans to accept a smaller Permanent Fund Dividend while reducing their personal income with an economy-killing income tax or sales tax.

Most concerning, however, is an issue on which he differed sharply from Bill Walker. His full-throated support for Ballot Measure 1 distinguishes him from any other gubernatorial candidate.  Indeed, it’s a position that puts him at odds with almost all 13 Alaska Native corporations, labor unions, most of the Alaskan business community, many former Alaska attorneys general and fish and game officials, Alaska’s entire Congressional delegation and the editorial board of Alaska’s largest newspaper.

Ballot Measure 1 is an environmental initiative that would cause significant negative impacts on community and economic development.  Its financial backers (mostly Outside environmental groups) claim the measure would strengthen state law protecting wild salmon and fish and wildlife habitat in Alaska.

Yet, no statewide or regional fishing organization like United Fisherman of Alaska or Southeast Alaska Seiners Association supports this measure.  Ditto with any major seafood processing company within Alaska. If this measure truly protected fish, wouldn’t you think industry organizations representing fishermen and companies that depend on fish production would support it?

Begich’s support for Ballot Measure 1 is telling. He calculated that he needed nearly 100% of the environmental vote to have any chance at winning this election. No doubt he will get their vote.  What kind of influence will environmental activists wield in a Begich administration in return?

Undecided voters leaning toward Begich face a dilemma when they go to the polls on Tuesday.

Is the Mark Begich on the ballot really the one who will revive Alaska’s economy or is he the one who will kill it?

Win Gruening retired as the senior vice president in charge of business banking for Key Bank in 2012. He was born and raised in Juneau and graduated from the U.S. Air Force Academy in 1970. He is active in community affairs as a 30-plus year member of Juneau Downtown Rotary Club and has been involved in various local and statewide organizations.

 

What’s wrong with this poll?

THROWBACK THURSDAY ON IVAN MOORE PREDICTIONS

According to pollster Ivan Moore, the race for governor in Alaska is now a toss up. Either Mark Begich or Mike Dunleavy could win. In Moore’s polling world, Begich has closed the gap.

Moore polled 500 Alaska likely or certain voters between Oct 26-29. It was the last of his five snapshots of the race.

According to the pollster for the Democrats, it’s now Mike Dunleavy at 42.5 percent, Mark Begich at 42.3 percent, Bill Walker at 7.7 percent and Billy Toien at 3.3 percent. 4.1 percent are undecided.

There is at least one “tell” that shows how the survey skewed:

Moore reported that 67 of his survey respondents had already cast their votes. Of those, 34 of those had voted for Begich, 32 for Dunleavy and 1 voted for Walker.

That’s over 13 percent of his universe having already voted by the time he closed his survey on Oct. 29.

It’s higher  — way higher than than what is actually happening at the early voting polls and in absentee ballots.

SIX PERCENT TURNOUT SO FAR IN BALLOTS CAST

As of Oct. 30, about 36,857 ballots had been cast overall, 6 percent of the 569,903 registered voter universe and about 11 percent of those who are expected to actually vote.

The majority of those early and absentee voters are Republicans and undeclared voters.

For example, in Monday’s early voting, 695 Republican, 505 Democrats, 821 undeclareds (skew right), and 559 nonpartisans (skew left) showed up at early voting locations around the state. This conservative dominance has held steady since early voting started.

Begich, a Democrat, is using the Moore poll to build momentum, excite his base, and get out and vote. It might have the opposite effect, however, in that it might motivate the “lazy conservative” voters.

Begich wrote in a fundraising letter that the poll shows him ahead 46 percent to Dunleavy’s 42 percent. He neither gives his reader the information about the whole poll or how he got to that number, neglecting to reveal that the 4 point lead comes from a theoretical section of the Moore poll, where Moore asked a “push” question to inform people that Gov. Bill Walker had dropped out of the race.

THE WAY-BACK MACHINE

Polling Alaska is a tough game.

In 2014, Moore’s final poll of the campaign season reported that Sen. Mark Begich was ahead of Dan Sullivan, 46-42 percent in the race for the Senate.

A week later, Sullivan upset Begich, 48 to 45.6 percent.

Moore was off by six points just days before the election.

In a poll done a few days before that, he had Begich up by 8 points.

In 2016, Moore called Alaska a “battleground state” and had Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in a dead heat. Trump won Alaska by 51.3 percent to Clinton’s 36.6 percent.

Then in the race between Ethan Berkowitz and Congressman Don Young in 2008, pollster Moore had Berkowitz winning by 9 points. Don Young won by 5 points, a 14 point miss by Moore.

But regardless, the media keeps reporting on his polling as if it is the gold standard.

 

Even Wielechowski’s poll favors Dunleavy

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Sen. Bill Wielechowski conducted a poll on Facebook to ask friends and followers who they’ll be voting for in the governor’s race: Mike Dunleavy or Mark Begich.

Wielechowski blocks conservative bloggers from his personal Facebook page, and he’s favored by liberals, so the answer might surprise you:

It’s Mike Dunleavy by a landslide in his 24-hour poll, 58-42 among the 2,700 voters.

Evidently Wielechowski is not blocking enough conservatives.

Facebook polls are entertaining but aren’t scientific. In a recent Must Read Alaska poll, Facebook participants voted for Dunleavy by 93 percent to Begich’s 7 percent.

Still no answers on District 15 voter fraud

By ANCHORAGE DAILY PLANET

It is nothing short of refreshing to hear the heads of Alaska’s major political parties agreeing that the state’s “no comment” on whether it is investigating possible voter fraud in the District 15 GOP primary election is simply unacceptable.

Jay Parmley, executive director of the Alaska Democratic Party, and Tuckerman Babcock, chairman of the Alaska Republican Party, agree it is time for the state to tell Alaskans whether it is investigating that particular race, KTVA reports. The station says it has filed three requests with state officials for information, but has been denied.

“What has been alleged is the most serious case of possible case of voter fraud that I think the state of Alaska has ever seen,” Parmley told KTVA.

“I’m not saying they should move extra fast to indict someone just before an election, but if they’re doing an investigation, and denying the public information about previous investigations or ongoing collection of information, they at least should make that public,” Babcock said.

[Read: KTVA’s story on lack of transparency in election investigation]

With just six days left before the Nov. 6 general election, there are myriad questions unanswered about the flawed District 15 GOP primary contest where at least seven dead people – that’s right, seven – asked for ballots. Those questions should be answered before Alaskans go to the polls.

The race pitted Republican-in-name-only Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux against political newcomer Aaron Weaver. Along with the seven dead prospective voters, 26 ballots were yanked because of residency or legitimacy questions. All of them were for LeDoux.

[Read more: Anchorage Daily Planet]

Why I’m a ‘no’ on Ballot Measure 1

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By LOREN LEMAN

Many people have asked me about Ballot Measure 1.  Their typical question is, “I’m confused. Can you explain what it does?” I tell them I am happy to do so, but for them to really understand it will take a few minutes—perhaps even a few hours.  Most people are unable or unwilling to invest that time. So I give them an abbreviated version that I will share.

I draw my conclusions from my life experiences. I am passionate about protecting our salmon, including their habitat.  I want my children and grandchildren to have the same opportunity I have had to enjoy and benefit from this wonderful resource. I also care about our environment—and help people be wise stewards of it. So, why vote NO?

  1. It’s unnecessary. Alaska already has rigorous environmental laws and policies in place to protect fish habitat, water and air. These are updated regularly, and when statutory changes are necessary, the Legislature addresses them. I know.  I authored bills to do this that became law. The Legislature is the right place to do this—with testimony from interested parties and open debate.
  2. It’s deceptive. I don’t like to say this, but it’s true. The sponsors have marketed this as saving salmon, which of course we all want, but that’s not what it’s really about. Very little of our salmon challenges in Alaska are from habitat destruction that this ballot measure would fix. Trying to pass complex changes to our environmental laws in eight pages of small-font legislation just isn’t fair to Alaska’s voters.
  3. It’s harmful. Rather than benefiting salmon, it will add several more million dollars to the State budget, further delay issuance of permits, and hinder legitimate activity important to many of us, including community wastewater treatment and disposal, seafood processing, improvements to private property, and even access for hunting, fishing and other outdoor recreation.

I have learned from experience that words have meaning.  Even carefully crafted legislation and policies are often litigated.  This measure, created without careful public input, will be the retirement plan for lawyers—and we will pay that cost.  Ballot Measure 1 will have negligible benefit for fish but profound impact on Alaskans. I am voting NO.

Loren Leman has fished for salmon on Cook Inlet for 60 years, practices civil/environmental engineering, served in the Legislature, and was Alaska’s lieutenant governor.

Alaska Forestry Association endorses Dunleavy

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The Alaska Forest Association has endorsed Mike Dunleavy for governor.

“The AFA has seen Mike’s performance in this campaign and at the recent debate with Mark Begich. Mike supports our issues and even began his work in Alaska in the Woods with Gildersleeve Logging at Whale Pass.  He agrees with AFA on all key issues including being a solid NO on Proposition One. He has affirmed to us that he will work to reinvigorate the timber industry in the Tongass, in Southcentral and in the Interior.”

Dunleavy came to Alaska on the Alaska Marine Highway ferry Columbia, landed in Ketchikan, and headed to Prince of Wales Island to work at the Gildersleeve Logging Camp. From there he headed north to teach in Koyuk, a rural community in the Arctic.

“Mike is the exact kind of governor we need to work with our congressional delegation to restore the Tongass and Chugach exemptions to the National Roadless Rule.,” said Eric Nichols, AFA board member.

The roadless rule makes logging all but impossible in the Tongass National Forest, and eliminates the multi-use mission of the national forest in favor of simply wilderness preservation.

Under the Trump Administration, steps have been taken to create a state-specific rule for Alaska.

On June 1, the Secretary of Agriculture directed the chief of the Forest Service to initiate a state-specific rulemaking for roadless area management direction for the Tongass National Forest on behalf of the Department. On Aug. 2, the State of Alaska and the Forest Service signed a memorandum of understanding to document cooperation between the parties on the development of a state-specific rule.

The forestry group said it plans to work with a Dunleavy Administration to also make improvements to the State timber management program to serve as a bridge to the restoration of the U.S. Forest Service timber program.

The Alaska Forest Association is Alaska’s oldest group supporting and promoting timber harvest and management.

Epic campaign video will rock your day (we have a sneak preview)

How to cut through the noise during the last week of campaign messaging? That’s the toughest assignment of all for the creative teams.

From the Progressive Left, negativity against gubernatorial candidate Mike Dunleavy is hitting the airwaves with $500,000 in intense advertising bought by the Defeating Dunleavy group, a subset of the Democratic Governors Committee.

But out of the Alaska Republican Party is coming this flash from the past, starring Mike Dunleavy and Creedence Clearwater Revival — a video bound to go viral.

Must Read Alaska got ahold of the rough cut before it was released, and you can see it here.

We’re told the video concept came from the creative mind of a young Alaska commercial fisherman. With that idea, the Alaska videographer patched together slides from both Mike Dunleavy’s campaign and the Mark Begich campaign to contrast the two candidates, with the the iconic 1960s anthem “It’s Ain’t Me,” written by John Fogerty. Check it out on our YouTube channel here:

Some folks are born silver spoon in hand
Lord, don’t they help themselves, oh
But when the taxman comes to the door
Lord, the house looks like a rummage sale, yes
It ain’t me, it ain’t me, I ain’t no millionaire’s son, no
It ain’t me, it ain’t me, I ain’t no fortunate one, no

Dunleavy for Alaska does it again: Scoops up ‘Defeat Dunleavy’ web address

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PRO-TIP: BUY YOUR WEB NAME BEFORE GOING ‘LIVE’

Oops, they did it again. In another lightning quick campaigning move, a group supporting Mike Dunleavy’s campaign for governor has outfoxed an out-of-state “Defeat Dunleavy” group, this one started by the Democratic Governors Association.

Dunleavy for Alaska bought the web name defeatdunleavy.com.

The “Defeat Dunleavy” group was formed to elect Democrat Mark Begich. The Democratic Governors Association has purchased significant television advertising through Monday via this group. It will also likely be spending its treasure on digital advertising.

Dunleavy for Alaska is an independent group that operates separate from the Dunleavy campaign itself. No coordination is allowed to occur by law between a campaign and a supporting effort. Dunleavy for Alaska has become known for unconventional campaign messages and colorful signs. It’s also known for its rapid response times.

This is the second time Dunleavy for Alaska has jumped on a web name that describes an opposing group.

When an effort formed to oppose Dunleavy on behalf of Mead Treadwell, a Republican who ran in the Primary Election, Dunleavy for Alaska bought up the group’s web address, and started posting spoof content that made fun of the supposed “Alaskans” who were really from the Lower 48.

No word yet on whether Defeat Dunleavy will succumb to the same fate as Alaskans Against Dunleavy, which fell victim to this spoof ad:

“Defeat Dunleavy” was founded by the Democratic Governors Association, under the direction of Joe Shafer, the director of independent expenditures. He was the Northeast political director at the Democratic Congressional Coordinating Committee, and was the campaign manager for the successful race of Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf. He was campaign manager for congressional races and state races going as far back as 2004. This would be his first race in the West, and his first foray into Alaska politics.

“Defeat Dunleavy” did manage to secure an email address, but it appears to have let the Facebook handle slip away to the Dunleavy for Alaska group.

Wielechowski likes Dunleavy. He said so.

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THE BROMANCE IS OVER, WIELECHOWSKI NOW SAYS

When asked, Sen. Bill Wielechowski told radio talk show listeners over the winter that he likes Mike Dunleavy. He likes working with him. He and Dunleavy both agree on the Permanent Fund and “a few other issues.”

Now he wants to not only walk his comments back, he’s sent a letter to Dunleavy for Alaska telling that group to stop playing the audio recording that has him saying how much he appreciates working with Dunleavy and how much he misses him in the Senate.

All of those remarks were made in the public arena, and they can’t be walked back any more than anything else said on radio.

“I like Mike! You know, I wish there were more people who supported the Permanent Fund Dividend… We actually found a way to work on issues, we didn’t agree on things, but we agreed on fish, we agreed on the Permanent Fund and a few other issues… Mike’s a friend of mine, I miss him down here to be honest with you.”

But the ad being run by Dunleavy for Alaska has Wielechowski frantic. He’s sent the group a cease and desist letter.

The Dunleavy for Alaska folks are not cowering over a letter from a politician.

They issued a press release:

“Today, in an orchestrated media stunt, Democratic Senator Bill Wielechowski attempts to distance himself from his own public comments describing his firsthand experience with Mike Dunleavy’s good nature and willingness to work across party lines to get things done for Alaskans,” the press release said.

“Mr. Wielechowski’s demands are utterly frivolous — and it’s a poor reflection on Mr. Wielechowski that he now wants to run away from his own public comments that he made freely and for thousands of Alaskans to hear, simply because they do not align with Mark Begich’s nasty attacks and misleading portrayal of Mike Dunleavy,” said Terre Gales, chair of Dunleavy for Alaska.

Wielechowski has been on damage control for days now, because his words, captured for all time, really don’t match the narrative being painted by the Begich for Governor campaign.

Listen to the audio of Sen. Wielechowski, in his official capacity as a senator for his district, talk about working alongside Mike Dunleavy.

(Note: The comment feature on MRAK stories is temporarily not functioning but elves are working hard to fix it.)