What would happen if Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola decided to challenge Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in 2026?
Ivan Moore’s Alaska Survey Research conducted a poll April 21-25 with 1,261 likely Alaska voters and found that the positive-negative ratings for Peltola are strongly in her favor.
Peltola rated 53% positive, 28% negative, 13% no opinion, 6% never heard for a +25 rating.
Sullivan rated 45% positive, 41% negative, 12% no opinion and 1% never heard, for a +3 rating.
Looking forward three years, Moore asked likely voters, “If the 2026 general election for US Senate was held today and the candidates were as follows, for whom would you vote for Senate?” Of the choices he presented to likely voters, the result gave Peltola the edge:
- Mary Peltola (D) 44%
- Dan Sullivan (R) 41%
- Undecided 15%
Peltola was elected in the first-ever open primary and ranked choice voting election in Alaska, beating out Republican Sarah Palin, Republican Nick Begich, and Libertarian Chris Bye in the general election. A hardline Democrat who votes with her party nearly 100% of the time, she has enjoyed favor from the legacy media and leftist writers.
During that same election, Sen. Lisa Murkowski beat Kelly Tshibaka and retained her Senate seat. Murkowski endorsed Peltola in that election.
Peltola has given no indication about her intent for 2026, but is running for reelection already for her seat representing Alaska in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024, and the national Democrats have put her on the list for their rescue operation, since she is a hard Democrat running in a lean-Republican state.
Thanks Republicans…truly thank you.
Alaska is gone.
Don’t forget the afternoon drive radio host who incessantly pimped RVC. He deserves a gold star in this debacle as well.
Actually he runs an advertising business and was hired by them. Yes, he could of said no thanks but he is definitely against now that it was implemented.
Money is in his pocket now so he can speak out against it? I don’t trust him anymore. Money talks and he’s tainted
For the afternoon drive radio host to speak against his pet project would require admission of being wrong.
Look who conducted the poll, Ivan Moore, whose about as biased as they come so this poll should be taken with a mountain of salt.
Part of the problem with modern politics is we’re now discussing a hypothetical election over a year away. We suffer from election fatigue.
Ivan is clearly attempting to steer an outcome of some time.
If Sullivan can get senate leadership behind him AKA Sen. Mitch McConnell with droves of money and advertising, stay with his word not to allow foreign owned mining into pebble, take on a bigger role in boarder control, change a flat tire in Alaska at 20 below bare handed, then and only then will he squeak by Yukon Mary 😉
Kusko Mary.
You lie and lie and you expect different. Yep good job Republicans.
Sullivan is a wimp afraid of his own shadow. Peltola could easily take him out. After he endorsed Murkowski it was clear he thought it would ingratiate him with the Democrats. He hid from the public most of the last election. He didn’t support Dunleavy, Palin, Begich or anyone else for that matter. I did see him campaigning for JD Vance in his home state of Ohio though.
I am no fan of Ohio Dan and I am cannot stand Mary Peltola. So the choice for me will be difficult if these two run against each other in the next election. Despite what he says, Ohio Dan does not give a damn about veterans and the substandard Anchorage VA Clinic. When asked, Peltola told me that things at the Anchorage VA are “all better” after the VA building was named after Mary Rasmuson. Both are completely clueless.
We need to stop these tiny polls and give false pretenses. This is a joke ! Polled 1200 Alaskans who are they? Mary Petola is not working for Alaska.
We need to stop these tiny polls and give false pretenses. This is a joke ! Polled 1200 Alaskans who are they? Mary Petola is not working for Alaska. No I have not repeated this before
Is Sullivan the cowardly lion the tin man or the scarecrow? Hard to say but Dorothy is going to clean his clock.
Only with rigged choice voting. She did not win her current seat legitimately.
Get over it. She won legitimately. It’s not her fault too many couldn’t bother to vote and learn how to work RVC.
Until the right of center electorate of Alaska pulls its head out of its Biden and admits it was outmaneuvered, outplayed, and outfought, this will never change.
The more likely bet is that Sarah Palin will again decide to be famous as a spoiler and run for US Senate in the RCV scheme. Of course Peltola would win. Sarah Palin wants a 1000% average as a spoiler in Alaska. It’s what she does best. I know a lot about Sarah Palin.
Smart man, Todd. You got out of her way and now have your peaceful life back .
Sullivan burnt bridges with his support and vote for the ” Indefense of Marriage Act.” He ought to be primarried hard and sent home. We can do better.
My cat box litter has more brains than mary, she is NOT for Alaska’s best interests!
We could have the two most useless Senators from one state. What a legacy.
Don Young’s legacy, right?
They will vote for an open democrat versus a closet one
“If the 2026 general election for US Senate was held today….” What a supposition! Between Sullivan and Peltola, to boot!
What’s got you down, Ivan–the cheap shake or the rotgut whiskey?
Edit: Revelations by Moore
Actually in todays Alaska she probably will. Based on recent results I think most of us right wingers have given up on voting. It looks like most of the ones in anchorage have.
The worst thing you can do. You are giving them what they want. VOTE!
Swamp vs the Grifter. Everyone loses.
More getting the government we deserve.
Tell me again this is a conservative state. I like fiction.
You’re kidding yourself right? Alaska hasn’t been conservative in decades. You look at the way things have gone voting in the legislature in the way government spending has increased. Nothing this state is done in a long long while rings a conservative Bell.
I’d think you, of all people, would recognize irony and sarcasm.
Also I’d thought your reading comprehension better.
Appears I’m wrong.
No, I read it right. You don’t even know what you’re saying these days. You slipping.
Honestly, it’s hilarious that you’re giving Ivan Moore’s “polling” any credibility at all.
Goodness please someone, anyone, well-besides that “Christian” theocrat with the broken hair, beat Sullivan. What a do nothing senator for Alaska.
Your obsession with faith is as unhealthy for you as your cancer.
Like I said….. slipping.
Masked; Not a christian like thing to write in referring cancer on somebody.
3rd: your pearl-clutching faux offendedness here is as phony and irrational as your pretended love for Sockeye Lisa.
It is hardly un-christian, much less unfactual, to state that cancer is unhealthy.
I’m no fan of Dan Sullivan, by a long shot, but anyone who has any knowledge of Ivan Moore Polls knows that whoever pays for the polls, is buying a predetermined result. If the poll results don’t reflect the purchaser’s goals, nobody gets paid! Ivan Moore isn’t the only pollster who operates like that, it’s just one I’ve monitored for 30+ years.
Therein is the real question: who commissioned the poll?
I know a bit about this. It’s easy to craft a poll that would support the slaughter of (pick your democratic) in the streets if it’s phrased the right way and polled to the “proper” demographic.
For goodness sake, this poll was conducted by leftist who probably polled only left leaning people.
I smell a dirty, stinking, low-down, commie rat!
Don’t trust any poll. They are wrong the majority of the time.
With the amount of R’s NOT voting anything is possible.
I stopped reading at ‘Ivan Moore’.
The fall of Alaska began with the approval and implementation of ‘Ranked Choice Voting’. Only socialist utopian states use it. Yes, Alaska is a ‘Blue’ state now.
if RCV is still in place in 2024, Peltola could be elected queen of the universe.
Lets just pretend the forecast is accurate for the moment. There are numerous reasons Dan could likely lose. Most importantly he chose to support the most fake republican on par with Mitt the Mut Romney. He is clearly looking for a favor but it cost him 8 votes in my family alone. Even if it comes down to just mary as the other choice we will have to take a bye on this one. He knew how screwed up Lisa is/was and stood firm to back her so we are not going to reward him for supporting a traitor who brought us Deb Haaland. Both of them voted for her! I dont care if you are my neighbor. Tough luck when your supporters turn on you as you have done. I would like to hear his phony baloney excuse for at least a laugh.
Maybe Bill Walker will run. We’re already headed to hell with Swampy Dan. Why not make it entertaining with a Walker candidacy?
Just returning from a drive through the lower 48, Austin to Seattle via California Hwy 1. All beautiful but heavy Dem, we’re sunk as Anch and some Valley are mirror images. Thanks wanna be Akaskans.
Who would believe Ivan Moores polling?
It should have always been fair elections instead of selections! The entire system in Alaska must be overhauled. Get out of ERIC just like many other states have done. Manually clean up the voter rolls or voter database. Abolish the illegal unconstitutional non-transparent, confusing, expensive rank choice selection process. Term limits for all politicians. Abolish contributions from All PACs. Dark money has funded the assault on our elections where every politician appears to be bought and paid for. Revamp the judicial judge process where the fox is no longer watching the chicken coop. Every state government must restore their Constitutional Rights and push back on the federal overreach. The Republic Smaller government that works for We the People, not CCP, not dark money, not big tech, not unions, not big ag, not big pharma, not the WHO, not UN, and certainly not the World Banks and WEF. We don’t need no mind control. We don’t need no 15 minute cities/gulags! We don’t need equity. We don’t need the WHO Pandemic Treaty! ALL of our Rights guaranteed by the Constitution and Bill of Rights must be restored nationwide and immediately.
Well said.
As long as we have rank choice voting she probably will.
Dan needs to re evaluate who his political allies are. He endorsed Murkowski which was a big mistake for him, though I still supported him. Murkowski of course endorsed Peltola. The left have their fangs out for him. Take heed and grow a pair and stop supporting back stabbers.
Yea she’ll get in,if she doesn’t it will be considered racist.
Monkey math?
In reality, she probably can beat Dan. Her ticket has been punched to ride whatever horse they bring out of the stable for her.
Hey Mia Costello! How about it? Lets dump Dan for Mia!
As to polls, where are the voters that stayed home? And why?
How do we clean up voting in Alaska? Dunleavy executive order to eliminate ERIC…
Constitutional convention anyone? Lets get rid of RCV and find ourselves a path to remove any politicians that ever break their oaths (like the republicans that handed our majority to the dumbocrats in our legislature and what chris constant is doing to the mayor and what constant and rivera are doing to women…)
“Where are the (conservative) voters who stayed home?”
1- Moved out of state to look for a good job
2- In a Senior Center or hospice
3- the obituaries.
Alaska is Blue now.
Even our Republicans are blue.
Don’t like it? ….move.
Florida was trending blue as well, before DeSantis stood up (at least partially) to the Covidian panicdemic and other deep state agendas — now he has an overwhelming approval rating from Floridians.
.
But at the moment, I do not see any DeSantis-wannabe in Alaskan politics. Virtually every Republitilian politician in this state seems overeager to say “How far?” when asked to bend over by any radical leftist.
She is a net zero in the House for Alaskan issues and will be a Senate debacle. Alaska = 0 going forward. We must get used to it.
With Prop 2 in action she’s a sure win no matter what. Ensuring that democrats and democrats-in-hiding like Murkowsk win is the only reason Prop 2 exists.
The only people Ivan poles are all his boyfriends.
lol ….. poll was held at Myrnas?
Sullivan needs to grow a spine. Maybe if he does he might fend off Mary Mary quite contrary. aka Marxist Mary
Finally, some good news in MRAK!
A Rino for a Communist. So, can someone explain the difference? They both are compromised and actively subvert our Constitution. I fail to see a contrast.
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