A poll conducted last week by the National Republican Congressional Committee shows that in just one month, Alaska congressional candidate Nick Begich has moved the needle by 10 points with Alaskans since August and is now ahead of Mary Peltola among those who are likely to vote in November.
While in late August, Begich trailed Peltola 39%-45% in the NRCC poll, today Begich leads (44%-40%), with 10% being
undecided. What’s more, when taking Alaska’s ranked-choice redistribution methods into account, Begich maintains his lead
after every recalculation scenario. If undecided voters are excluded, Begich would actually reach a majority vote on the first-choice ballot.
While Begich came up six points, Peltola has dropped four points in the comparison between the two polls, for a 10-point swing.
Although polling done on behalf of candidates can be difficult to count on, most polling favors liberal candidates because conservatives are more reluctant to take polls when called out of the blue by random numbers they don’t recognize.
Thus, a lead in this poll may indicate even greater momentum for the Begich campaign than the numbers show.
Meanwhile, Peltola’s team has not released any polling data lately, which may signify that the numbers her campaign is coming up with are not favorable. Her ads have recently begun to attack Begich for things like being a businessman with employees all over the world, ads that have a racist tone to them as they attack Indians. Nick Begich’s wife is of Indian heritage.
Recently, according to the NRCC poll, people who have heard something about Peltola recently came away with a worse impression of her.
