A poll commissioned by Must Read Alaska over the weekend shows that Sarah Palin has both a chance of winning the race for Congress, but also has a high negative factor and could hand the race to the leading candidate supported by Alaska Democrats — Al Gross.
With campaigns eager to make claims to voters during this hurry-up special election season, Must Read Alaska has invested in ground-truthing what Alaskans are really thinking about concerning those on the ballot. The results were surprising:
The survey asked questions of 955 likely 2022 primary voters, such as: “Of several possible candidates in the 2022 election for Congress, if the election were held today, for whom would you vote?” The response was:
- Sarah Palin: 31%
- Al Gross: 26%
- Nick Begich: 21%
- Christopher Constant: 7%
- Josh Revak: 3%
- Tara Sweeney: 2%
- Another candidate not listed: 4%
- Undecided: 6%
This result contradicts a poll advertised by candidate Gross in his fundraising push to his national audience, which says Palin has 42%, Gross has 40%, and 18% are undecided.
The MRAK poll was conducted by a major national polling firm, Remington Research Strategies, which has a B rating from FiveThirtyEight.com for accuracy. It is the first known major poll to be conducted in Alaska in the race to replace the late Congressman Don Young, since his death on March 18.
Between April 7-9, surveyors asked likely primary voters in Juneau, Anchorage, and Fairbanks a series of questions about some of the more well-known names on the primary ballot.
There will be 48 names on the primary ballot; only those considered most viable for the general election ballot were included in the poll. This survey did not dive into the ranked choice voting methodology that Alaskans will use in August and in November. (The first ballot voters will face, which must be postmarked by June 11, is a “pick one” election with the top four heading to the August special election ballot.)
When asked their favorable/unfavorable opinion about Republican Sarah Palin:
- 37% said their opinion was favorable.
- 51% said they have an unfavorable opinion of Palin.
- 12% had no opinion of the former Alaska governor.
When asked their opinion about Republican Nick Begich:
- 28% were favorable.
- 30% were unfavorable.
- 42% had no opinion.
The same question was asked about Republican Josh Revak. Responses were:
- 8% were favorable.
- 29% were unfavorable.
- 63% had no opinion.
Democrat-backed candidate Al Gross, who ran for Senate in 2020 against Sen. Dan Sullivan, drew these responses:
- 32% favorable.
- 51% unfavorable.
- 17% with no opinion.
The unfavorables for Palin and Gross were identical at 51%. The favorables for Gross were smaller than those for Palin — 32% for Gross vs. 37% for Palin. The name recognition for Palin and her role as a lightning rod led to only 12% having no opinion on the favorability question.
Participants were asked if an endorsement from the family of the late Congressman Young was important to them: “In the upcoming special election to fill Don Young’s seat, are you more likely if less likely to vote for a candidate that claims to have the backing of Don Young’s family?” The answer shows that for many, it’s not going to make a difference in their decision:
- 20% were more likely to support the candidate.
- 28% were less likely.
- 52% said it made no difference to them.
The polling on Palin shows the former governor can’t lean on former President Donald Trump’s endorsement for support without risk. When asked, “Are you more likely or less likely to support Sarah Palin if you know that Donald Trump supports her candidacy?” the overall result was:
- 29% were more likely to vote for Palin.
- 48% were less likely.
- 23% said it made no difference to them.
By region the breakdown shows the former governor cannot use Trump without losing support:
Juneau: 16% said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for Palin, while 73% of respondents said the Trump endorsement would make them less likely to vote for Palin.
Fairbanks: 38% said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote Palin, while 33% said it it would make them less likely.
Anchorage: 30% said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for Palin, while 45% said the Trump endorsement would make them less likely.
The respondents were self-described as:
- 46% Conservative.
- 29% Moderate.
- 22% Liberal.
- 3% Not sure.
The poll demographics:
Anchorage (Southcentral): 71%
Fairbanks: 14%
Juneau: 15%
Republican: 38%
Democrat: 29%
Very conservative: 27%
Somewhat conservative: 25%
Moderate: 25%
Progressive: 23%
Female: 53%
Male: 47%
Remington Research Group of Missouri typically works for conservative clients. Its parent company is owned by Axiom Strategies, which has signed a contract to work with Nick Begich this campaign cycle, and which worked on the Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson campaign in 2021 and the successful gubernatorial campaign of Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia. This poll was a combination of phone, online, and text survey, and the pollsters say the confidence rate has a 3.1 margin of error, with 95% level of confidence. The Anchorage numbers for the poll include people on the Kenai Peninsula and the Mat-Su.
Alaskans are choosing a new member of Congress after the death of Congressman Young. The special placeholder election for a temporary House member takes place during a June 11 primary that has 48 people on the ballot, and an Aug. 16 general election, which is a ranked choice voting (rank your favorites, 1 through 4) ballot. The winner of that will be sworn in as a member of Congress until the regular election is completed in November. The November winner will have to get 51 percent of the vote on a ranked choice ballot.
Are you interested in supporting the work of Must Read Alaska and polls like these? Contribute to the cause of keeping the mainstream media honest by donating at this link.
My goodness.. She quit her job representing the state as Governor, because it got too hot in the kitchen.
Hello.. Remember???
Yes, I remember. I remember when Alaska ethics laws allowed her to be personably liable for BS claims and she racked up $500K in bills defending herself against bogus charges. She had to pay that money out of her own pocket, state could not legally help. The law was changed after she resigned.
That’s BS! She willfully avoided consulting with the Ethics Attorney about her activities. Had she done so and the Ethics Attorney cleared her activities, the State would have substituted itself as the Respondent to the complaints.
Reuters says I’m right:
‘https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-palin/illegal-sarah-palin-defense-fund-must-give-back-donations-idUSTRE65O0AG20100625
The ethics laws were changed later.
You’re just spouting Palin Propaganda and your own ignorance. I lived unde r the State Ethics Act a lot longer thn Palin could hold a job in State government.
Rely on Reuters or Art Chance on Alaska politics? Better go with Art…
Jim Wilke, it appears you are actually citing Reuters as a source equivalent to sacred scripture. Surely its inverted humor since its incredible to think you are serious.
Oh. and in case you’d forgotten, Palin touted herself as the architect of Alaska’s Ethics laws in effect at the time and bragged endlessly about how she’d cleaned up some mythical “old boys’ club” by passing, with her Democrat friends, those ethics laws. Despite her bragging, Palin didn’t clean up anything. Such “cleaning” as had been done was done by the FBI and the DOJ Public Integrity Section and almost none of their prosecutions survived scrutiny. None of the corrupt Feds has been disciplined or discharged and the head of PIS went on to become Comrade Obama’s Attorney General, where he continued his lawless ways.
I remember the whole ethics circus very well, drummed up by leftie bloggers that wanted her out of office. Shannyn Moore, Celtic Diva/Linda Kellen Biegel and Mudflats/Jeanne Devon were among them, there were others. Typical of the claims was that Sarah wore an Arctic Cat jacket to an event which meant she was endorsing that company … never mind that every person in the world wears clothes with some kind of brand logo on them. I remember very well that she went to the State DOJ and was told the State could not defend her. Once that word came out, ethics complaints, all groundless, came in daily until she resigned, personally owing over $500K.
Question, Art:
How ethical and personally responsible is it for a mother to abandon her Down’s Syndrome child so she can put herself in the spotlight of politics again?
Great question.
Art….?
Are you saying that a woman cannot hold political office and take care of a 14 year old son, who is in high school? Where are you getting that she is “abandoning” him? Also, is Todd not involved in his son’s life? Apparently you are misinformed enough that you believe all people born with Downs are helpless. That is definitely not the case.
Unless you are new to this matter, Palin was elected to City Council in 1992 and as Mayor of Wasilla in 1996. She had 3 minor children by the time she was Mayor, added one more prior to becoming Governor, and had Trig while Governor and before running for Vice President. Not sure where you are getting that she would be abandoning Trig.
So if Constant throws his support to Gross, suddenly Begich is a distant third….
What’s a Begich to do? Run left of course.
Nick Begich has been consistently conservative. Being a relative of leftist politicians doesn’t make him one.
Well, right now he is running a weak third place that looks likely to wind up being a even weaker fourth…unless of course he pulls a Murky move and entertains the left….
Dee, for the record, Nick Begich’s grandfather, the original holder of our seat in the House, was a very conservative Democrat. Pro-life, pro-development, pro-free market economy. Accordingly Nick Begich today is a relative of a conservative politician; his own grandfather… as irrelevant is it may be. That said, grandson Nick Begich today appears far more conservative, intelligent, and well-informed than Palin ever aspired to be.
Can’t help but wonder if the Democrats played to Sarah’s ego. Get in the race, cause chaos, clear the road for Gross (well named, btw).
It’s the sort of trick she’s fallen for before. She’s lots of things: bright not among them
SP is just plain stupid!
Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
NB3 all the way to the Capitol!
.
Palin and Gross can hook-up for bear hunts, opioid binges, and other kinds of hook-ups at their vacation residencies in CA and AZ.
Begich has been on the campaign trail for a half year. Sarah filed one minute before the deadline. She will split the vote, but she could care less, because the only thing important to her is Sarah Palin. Why isn’t she taking care of and raising her Down’s Syndrome child? What a selfish old woman.
Sarah will lose to the bear doctor guy as soon as she opens up her mouth and gives a stupid word salad rant. Sarah is unelectable and has no heart for Alaska. Only her spoiled arrogant self.
Maybe it would be better to hear why each candidate is running for Congress rather than discussing favorable or unfavorable opinions. I prefer Palin as here is her statement that was emailed to me.
“Friend, Recently I announced my candidacy for the U.S. House seat representing Alaska.
I first entered politics 30 years ago, when I was elected to city council in Wasilla. I still live in Wasilla; my family is here; my son goes to school here. My heart will ALWAYS be in Alaska, even when I’m representing you in Washington, D.C.
America is at a tipping point. As I’ve watched the far left destroy our country, I knew I had to step up and join the fight.”
I would like to hear why Al Gross wants to be in Congress as he is funded by out of state/dark money.
We don’t need another 30+ year career politician.
So a well crafted statement by a publicist is a reason to vote for her? She has a record. Review it. She was a terrible governor. She doesn’t govern like a conservative. She’s big government, big tax, big spending, along with using her power against her political and familial enemies. That’s really what you want representing us in Congress?
Dee. Well stated!
Sarah is in this for Sarah. She craves a National stage. In many ways she is the Republican equivalent of A.O.C.
Niccolo, good follow up point, Robert A Schenker. I see you ripping off my comparison of Palin and Cortez as if you originally coined it. In any case, I hereby give you free license to use my idea going forward…. you little plagiarist rascal.
Dante, I fear that you are having a Joe Biden moment concerning MY ASSERTION that Sarah is the equivalent to AOC.
BUT that’s OK pal, I’m just happy that the truth is getting out.
Wayyyyy oversampled females and Anchorage.
Sarah and any conservative Republican would run even stronger in the Valley, a bit less so in Fairbanks. Sweeney will be strong in the Bush.
Bush is no longer relevant.
Buried in the article it shows that Anchorage included the MatSu and Kenai.
You know what my thoughtful advice to the ‘native’ political aspiring young leader, as tempting as this is but don’t build your career within native institutions. Be best to Work for private businesses and public governance and the party of preference.
Is ranked choice voting the reason why there is only 1 Democrat? Are we playing into their hands?
Before the large influx of left coast Californians and their kindred from the California Soviet Socialist Republics of Washinton and Oregon ranked choice would have been dead on arrival. The left is keen on manipulating elections through whatever fraud they can use.
While I believe Palin would be a solid conservative vote for Alaska and the country for years to come, I fear the circus that would surround her. I also believe Begich would be a conservative vote, my vote goes to him . I want a congressman who focuses on the issues, not looking for headlines.
Interesting that the Matsu not in the poll. I believe the numbers would have blown Sarah and Gross out of the water.
It definitely caught my attention. Very curious about how Mat-Su breaks. They tend to vote more conservatively (Begich), but they might swing behind their homegrown celebrity (Palin). It might not matter. That breakdown: 46% Conservative, 29% Moderate (=liberal), 22% Liberal (=rabid socialist) tells the tale. Palin is just “moderate” enough to pull some of those voters and talks conservatively enough to pull a number of those on the right that don’t pay much attention to actual actions. Methinks she will be the first big winner of the ranked choice voting system.
On what planet is Nick Begich III a conservative? How long has he been a registered Republican?
Has he ever spoken out on any issues before? Did he say a word when his uncle Mark was running for Senate?
He’s been a conservative his entire life.
Go listen to him tell his story.n most of Alaska’s most solid conservatives are supporting him and there is a good reason.
He’s been a registered Republican for years. While Sarah Palin made a career of posting on Facebook NB3 actually fought in the trenches behind the scenes to get republicans elected and Republican values rolling in Alaska. They guy was president of the Alaska policy form. Does that mean anything to a Palinista? No because the Palinistas will bend over backwards for Palin.
Alaska has only one Representative to Congress, Don Young showed how important it is to build relationships with both parties because we only have one. Keep that in mind when you are voting
Frank Rast. Good point and Sarah can’t build a relationship with anyone except maybe her hair dresser or cosmetic surgeon.
Gross isn’t his father either…
Nick Begich III is a bright kid that has actually done something with his life and he reminds me a lot of his Gramps, especially when it comes to building relationships.
If I hadn’t died over 500 years ago, I’d be voting Nick!
The only things in the middle of the road are a yellow line and dead skunks.
Politicians need to stay between the guardrails and on the ground, Sarah can’t do either.
Sorry Art, but going one way has not done much in the Alaska Legislature! Sometimes dead skunks and a yellow line are more appealing
OMG! Everyone run from Sarah LOL! I was undecided until all the BS about Her being a quitter & She doesn’t live here etc etc. well I‘ve decided the sky isn’t falling & right or wrong she has my vote.
You might try reviewing her actual record. If you’re hoping for a conservative- one who actually believes in limited government, fiscal responsibility, ethics in office, etc. you’re not going to get it with Palin.
Ken, there is a good reason to run from Palin.
The question is do Josh Revak and Tara Sweeney have secret handshake? Whoever gets the most support will support the other one into the top four? They were both co-chairs for the Don Young campaign. Both are chasing power after Don died, coveting his job. They were never really for Don Young. They are opportunists. The only one who had the guts to challenge Young was Nick Begich. Challenged him on his terrible anti-Alaska Pro Act vote. Challenged him for making Deb Haaland the secretary of DOI. Challenged him on his absenteeism in committees. And his proxy votes. Challenged his lobbyist controllers. The rest of these people are disgusting.
Well said, AK-49!
.
Revak and Sweeney are both RINOs, and at best would probably vote in Congress somewhere between Dan Sullivan and Princess Lisa — which is to say, just more “business as usual” Turtle McConnell clones. Palin, I fear, would be completely over her head there (as she was as governor), and easily subject to pressure from shadowy backroom forces. Nick Begich does seem like the best choice here.
Sarah Palin’s day is over. Her star has sunk. Every Alaskan knows this. Nick Begich is who we need now.
To Frank Rastafarian I’d say this: The Dems were more like milk toast republicans when Don Young was in his prime. As a conservative, I have absolutely NO desire to meet the current left/progressive ass hats half way and/or build a relationship. RINOS like McConnel and Limp Wrist Lindsey Graham are examples of those that dabble in “reaching across the aisle” to our collective determent. If repubs/conservatives continue to do that, it will be to the detriment of our republic. As for people voting for Sarah Palin… they must be detached from all logic and common sense. The thing that Begich needs to “aggressively” do is to distance himself from his uncle Mark.
Sarah Palin hasn’t donated to a SINGLE candidate as far as records go back to 2008 on APOC.
Palin became a millionaire by cashing in on Alaska. With the exception of publicly supporting Mallott and Walker in opposition to her own Lt. Governor, she hasn’t been involved in a single Alaska race but her own.
The Dems are playing smart, The conservative pool is diluted with Palin jumping in. I wish someone would offer her a book deal in Arizona.
Too many professional politicians (Palin & Revak). Too many liars (top of the list Revak who signed a pledge to support a statutory PFD and then immediately forgot it). Too many opportunists(Palin, Gross, Revak). Only people with a chance worth voting for is John Coghill, Nick Begich 3rd, Santa Claus, Tara Sweenie. Why would anyone vote for Revak – – known fraud snd liar. Vote.
Sarah Palin… her gift to Alaska was Walker and Mallot. Will she give us Gross next?
Gross Al? That’s just gross!
Al Gross is probably Sarah’s second choice in case she fails among Republicans. A very vengeful woman.
If Palin truly cared about Alaska, instead of her bank account and getting some TeeVee time, she would support Nick Begich.
She has no interest in actually being a Congressperson, she’s just interested in the campaign and the publicity it brings.
If actually elected to Don’s seat, once the actual work began, she would make up an excuse as phony as the one she used to quit as governor, and……….quit again.
Nick Begich has my trust and my vote. He is a solid conservative and will represent Alaska well for many years. I’m afraid it would be a circus atmosphere with Ms. Palin in Washington and God help us if Mr. Gross gets in somehow.
I’d like to see a debate between Palin, Begich, and Gross. Actually, just Palin and Begich, because I don’t want to see any more of Gross than I have to. I do think Palin will take the win. I hope whichever conservative gets less votes in the primary, steps aside for the ranked choice general.
Both Palin and Begich websites offer no information on where they stand with the issues but ask for donations. So how does one make an informative decision? Does Gross even have a website? Sarah scares me. She is a loudmouth lighting rod. Tabloids/MSM close in on her she just might quit us again and write a book. Begich needs to get his views out to the common folks. Santa has a website. Read it and decided he’s not getting my vote.
Throw the names in hat!
Swirl it!
Then pick your poison?
Thanks for the poll, Suzanne.
Its clear this race should favor Sarah Palin. No one has the star quality, fund raising ability or social media following as she does.
All Sarah has to do is run against Biden. Oppose open borders. Support public safety. Oppose reckless spending that has triggered the worst inflation in 40 years.
Trump may make a visit before the election. That would bring out a big crowd in a state that favored Trump over Biden by about 40,000 votes.
It’s like Trump: Palin makes some people crazy. They develop Derangement. But like Trump, Palin is poison to the snakes slithering throughout the system. And that is precisely what we need: get the lawyer class out of power, or at least busy at war with the Trumps and Palins.
Clearly it was important, useful, and darn nice of MustReadAlaska to do the poll! Meanwhile, investigative reporters at the Daily Worker are looking into which politicians are hunters.
If all the comments from people you don’t know, or rightfully question their motives, are confusing you, just look for the candidate Democrats fear, and hate, the most. Governor Sarah Palin enjoyed an unprecedented 85% approval rating when she was cleaning out the RINOs in her own party, only dropping into political disfavor when she started investigating Democrats too. Upon succeeding in his relentless attack, Juneau Senator Kim Elton QUIT HIS JOB the day before legislative session to accept his reward (federal appointment to Department of the Interior), courtesy of Barack Obama. I’ll be voting the name that evokes the most ire from Democrats; Sarah Palin!
I have the same thoughts on it. There’s a reason the Democrats and media loathe Palin. She’s popular.
It is critical that a candidate who works well with existing Senators is chosen to maintain Alaska’s strong delegation history. Through this lense, filter out any democrats, independents, undeclared, narcissists, slackers and ballyhoos. And vote the entire party line leaving no choices empty.
The squeaky wheel gets all the grease.
Well, somebody needs to send a few tankerfulls of grease to the Anchorage Marxist Nine, as nothing seems to be able to stop them from squeaking (especially when it comes to Mayor Bronson).
Well, there are some interesting comments here. I’m going to say this. If Trump has endorsed Palin, she has accepted the America First Agenda. I’m not saying Trump is perfect as he has endorsed a couple people that I disagree with, like Governor Dunleavy who has done nothing to secure Alaska’s elections. This is why I will support Chris Kurka for Governor. But, saying that, Trump kept his promises to the American people and would not endorse anyone that he believes can’t be reasoned with and work with them. I believe he has already endorsed Palin, which makes me wonder why he is avoiding Nick Begich and until Nick actually places what he supports as a Congressman on his website and makes promises to the Alaskan people to reign in the Federal Government, I will vote for Palin. Sarah has been vocal about what she supports and is against. She was against the unnecessary lock-downs that destroyed Alaska businesses and constantly spoke out against our current rogue government. Her challenge pointed at Murkowski was epic! I thank Sarah for clearing up the field for me and making the choice easier as I believe she will Represent Alaska well.
Yes. I believe Palin will make a bigger wave in Congress because of her name recognition and support from Trump. Other candidates may be better in thought, but they won’t make as big of an impact. I can see Palin standing her ground with Kevin McCarthy and the other house leaders. I think the RINOs in the US house fear her.
Trump Trump Trump, who gives a rats a**. He knows nothing about Alaska politics. He should go back to to focusing on the rest of the country.
Trump doesn’t know who Nick Begich is. All Trump knows is that Palin endorsed him in 2016 in a rambling wackadoodle speech.
When good citizens do nothing this is what we get our elections are so rigged our oath takers just let this shit go on. I could have 250 thousand voters in anchorage all vote for Jesus. And Jesus would loose by one vote 4 days after because the vote counter stole the election. Oath takers who become oath breakers look at what you have accomplished all evil deeds no citizen can trust the vote game because of oath breakers. OATH BREAKERS so help you GOD look at what you have done to GODs land and citizens.
Amen!
If you can find 250,000 people who’ll bother to vote….
You’re in this mess because people are lazy and prefer whining to acting.
I’ll vote for Palin, some experience and dramatics are necessary at this point in Washington.
What experience are you talking about? She was clueless the day she entered the office of governor and clueless the day she left her very short term.
I’m convinced Walker set this in motion
Can’t she just go away? The elephant in the room here(pun intended) is that in the past, she garnered attention and votes due to her physical appearance. The GOP needs younger, more qualified cheerleaders. Hang up your pom poms and go do Grandma stuff.+
Way to go @Suzanne, this story is linked on Citizen Free Press! They are bigger than Breitbart now
Sarah did A LOT of damage as Gov, then jumped on the RINO train with McCain. What is wrong with Republicans??? Are they masochistic?
Not a chance…won’t be any better than Murkowski or Young.
This is why the Right loses elections…too many candidates and most are opportunists. Repubs are weak and that is why such evil is in control now.
Thank you James! All these Sarah badgers k ew or cared to know why she resigned. It was to save the state from so many Frivolous lawsuits
Where’s my comment?
How long does that take
Between the mail-in ballot and ranked-choice voting, Sarah hardly stands a chance.
Mark Richardson, whether Sarah is successful in winning the election or not isn’t important to Sarah. What is important is that Sarah is back on Fox News! Think attention here Mark, that is her motivation.
She can blame Ranked Choice Voting if she is unsuccessful, much like she blamed Obama for her kid’s behavior after returning from Afghanistan. The kid was a mechanic and probably pretty far from the ” doo-doo” while in service. Others of us had our son’s return from Afghanistan with multiple tours that were spent in the doo-doo. Our sons finished college and got married and went on with their lives. But then we were not reality T.V.
I hold no malice for Sarah, I just want coherent, reasoned and effective representation in the U.S. House.
I support Nick.
Two “bumper sticker philosophies:
1. “please God, give me another oil boom and I promise not to piss it away this time”
and
2. “anybody but Palin” (ok, I made that one up, but still…)
The only people on this feed that have a relevant opinion concerning Sarah Palin are those who have walked her walk, not those who feel they walk on water. Otherwise there is nothing to base one’s opinion on other than personal feelings, which are like belly buttons, everyone has one. Even individuals that have made mistakes in the past, can and often do change and become individuals who thrive in those same areas the next time around. If the water walkers are not willing to step up to this job, perhaps they should keep their belly buttons to themselves. Or we could just wrestle it out at the poles, the one place every bodies belly button is welcome.
The deceitful refuge for Democrats is to run as an “Independent” – Al Gross and Bernie Sanders being examples. The kindred of RINO’s are Dem-dependents. Both deceive the electorate for votes and then support legislation contrary to what the people thought they were voting for – ie, Lisa Murkowski. Sadly, Alaska is being Californized and in not so many more years it will be a distant memory as a Republican state. Ranked choice is only one step on the journey to an anti-2nd Amendment, anti-liberty, and anti-rights state government.
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