Map your risk of having a brush with COVID if you go to an event in Alaska - Must Read Alaska
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Sunday, December 6, 2020
HomeThe SocialMap your risk of having a brush with COVID if you go to an event in Alaska

Map your risk of having a brush with COVID if you go to an event in Alaska

Is it safe to have a big Thanksgiving potluck in Anchorage? How about the Mat-Su?

Georgia Tech professors have produced a peer-reviewed map of America, showing the risk levels in various parts of the country as it pertains to COVID-19.

If you’re in Anchorage, for instance, and go to a crowded event with 50 people, the risk of a person with COVID being at that event is 99 percent, according to the map.

The map shows the risk level of attending an event, given the event size and location. If you’re planning to go to a North Dakota bar or a wedding dinner in Los Angeles, or at a birthday party in Nome, you can assess your risk.

Based on seroprevalence data available, the map designers assume there are 10 times more cases than are being reported (10:1 ascertainment bias). In places with more testing availability, such as Anchorage, that rate may be lower.

For example, if you go to an event with 50 or more people in the Bethel region, your chance of having one person at that event who is COVID-19 positive is 99 percent. In Anchorage, the chance is 94 percent, while in Juneau it’s 67 percent. The safest place in Alaska to have Thanksgiving, according to the map, is in the Lake and Peninsula Borough, where the risk is less than 1 percent.

The COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool is a collaborative project led by Prof. Joshua Weitz and Prof. Clio Andris at the Georgia Institute of Technology, along with researchers at the Applied Bioinformatics Laboratory and Stanford University.

The map can be found at this link.

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Written by

Suzanne Downing had careers in business and journalism before serving as the Director of Faith and Community-based Initiatives for Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and returning to Alaska to serve as speechwriter for Gov. Sean Parnell. Born on the Oregon coast, she moved to Alaska in 1969.

Latest comments

  • I know there are people who will deny the validity of this arithmetic, but I think this is a great perspective. It is very relevant. It supports the idea that state government should not dictate a one-size-fits-all response that would apply to Bethel and Lake and Pen at the same time. I would guess that this information, and the fact that holiday gatherings are coming allow the DH&SS to evaluate the likelihood of exceeding health care capacity in Alaska as seems to be happening in the Lower 48 and in Europe. As someone who knows very little about health care it appears to me that the vaccine could arrive in Alaska in time to allow Alaska to avoid the most dire consequences of this Chinese flu (though each death is dire to the decedent and his/her family of course), but at the same time I think there is no question that Alaska will be the state that experiences the deepest and longest duration economic consequences.

  • All this is based on the phony rtPCR test with amplifications over 35. So, in reality it is meaningless BS! But thanks for spreading BS anyhow.

  • Actually Koliganek is locked down and the school is currently closed. Covid 19 is rampid and spreading house to house mostly because of the lifestyle there and sharing steam baths. When we were there last May, I gave out all the masks I had out of my shop so that people could go to Orthodox Easter services. Even in, people coming in from outside the village would cause quarantine situations as it appeared that no one was taking it serious other than certified School personnel. I can only hope that elders aren’t afflicted. Some people there complain that they can’t take their kids and grandkids being home anymore because I guess they want the school to babysit them and also they miss sports, because everybody thanks their team is going to go to state because that’s all that matters in life and now this puts them a year behind or a lost year of eligibility. I hope they learn the value of life and take the necessary precautions.

  • Why is it “SAFE” to ride in a plane full of 138 passengers packed in like sardines for hours, but it’s “DANGEROUS” to go to Thanksgiving dinner?

    If they assume that the risk of going to an event in Anchorage with 50 or more people means that the odds of 1 person having covid in that group is 94%…

    … what are the odds of someone at the Grocery store having it? How many hundreds of people filter through the grocery store every day?

    And really, if these are the odds… chances are that most of us have probably already been exposed anyways!

    • It’s not safe to impact like sardines in a fuselage. The planes air scrubbers do a pretty good job but when we flew down here from Alaska the stupid flight attendants pulled their mask all the way down so they could have a conversation with somebody up in the galley it was waiting to get into the bathroom. I almost said something but then air Marshals would have taken me out for being an unruly passenger.

  • I guess it’s time to whip out the blenders, mix all the thanksgiving food in it and serve it in disposables cups with holes in the lids so we can enjoy dinner through straws……maintaining 6′ apart, of course..

  • Like I say, “suppression of the masses”. With the “election” in legal turmoil and most likely to rule President Trump as the winner, the left is pulling out all the stops. The new “lockdowns” are not due to ‘virus’. This is nothing but an attempt to prevent groups above a few from being assembled for a protest against the illegal election and the impending tyranny if Biden/Harris “wins”. Groups big enough and loud enough to be newsworthy, in support of President Trump. Defy the “lockdowns” and rules cancelling Thanksgiving and most likely Christmas. Support our president like he supports us. Speak up against the phony ‘science’ and leftist attempts to hold Americans under “house arrest”. Enough is enough. Time to turn the tables on idiocy ‘mandating’ unconstitutional rules and regulations for a political advantage. The American people count, not the politicians trying to communize America.

    • The only way Trump wins is if he monkeys with the electoral which in swing States controlled by Republicans can be done but he better have the national guard ready to roll. We’re good down here we don’t need no national guard, we pretty much take care of business on our own terms. Can you imagine what LeBron James would do and Samuel l Jackson? I’m still waiting for that sucker to move to Canada like he promised the last time Trump won.

  • Many will conflate probability of a COVID-positive person in attendance, to probability of contracting the Chinese flu.

  • Looks like a map of potential Covid Re-education And Penitentiary sites for counter-revolutionaries
    Might be fun to map your risk of having a brush with a politician or bureaucrat you despise for creating the panic…

  • Covid or no covid, it doesn’t stop us having our private parties, at least we are all smiling, laughing, and having fun. The mandates and the lock downs stop when the depressed glum people see they can’t get people down. Even, if restrictions are tightened, you just party harder.

    • Totally agree, the only reason we stay at home is because we can’t stand to see all these people caving to the left dictators. Don’t get me wrong if you want to wear a mask that is your right but when I see a family of 4 (2 adults and 2 small kids) all wearing cute masks I ask myself what is wrong with you? Again if you feel safer wearing a mask so be it, I just don’t want to participate.

  • This is stereotypical fear-mongering. Contracting COVID-19 is not a death sentence, despite what this BS article attempts to convey. Fewer than 0.5% who contract COVID-19 will die as a result. Many will contract the virus and be asymptomatic, but that doesn’t sell stories, so the propagandists have to deliberate lie instead. This is another fine example of “the enemy of the people” deliberately inciting fear by citing manufactured and completely meaningless risks.

    Why not spew what all the other leftist propagandists are claiming?


    I had thought better of Suzanne Downing, but obviously I was dead wrong.

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