Is it safe to have a big Thanksgiving potluck in Anchorage? How about the Mat-Su?
Georgia Tech professors have produced a peer-reviewed map of America, showing the risk levels in various parts of the country as it pertains to COVID-19.
If you’re in Anchorage, for instance, and go to a crowded event with 50 people, the risk of a person with COVID being at that event is 99 percent, according to the map.
The map shows the risk level of attending an event, given the event size and location. If you’re planning to go to a North Dakota bar or a wedding dinner in Los Angeles, or at a birthday party in Nome, you can assess your risk.
Based on seroprevalence data available, the map designers assume there are 10 times more cases than are being reported (10:1 ascertainment bias). In places with more testing availability, such as Anchorage, that rate may be lower.
For example, if you go to an event with 50 or more people in the Bethel region, your chance of having one person at that event who is COVID-19 positive is 99 percent. In Anchorage, the chance is 94 percent, while in Juneau it’s 67 percent. The safest place in Alaska to have Thanksgiving, according to the map, is in the Lake and Peninsula Borough, where the risk is less than 1 percent.
The COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool is a collaborative project led by Prof. Joshua Weitz and Prof. Clio Andris at the Georgia Institute of Technology, along with researchers at the Applied Bioinformatics Laboratory and Stanford University.