A LOOK AT SOME HOUSE GAINS THAT COULD GO EITHER WAY
With 28 State House Republicans winning on Election Day, Alaska conservatives were cheered by an apparent retaking of the House. But how many of those seats will still be retained after all votes are counted?
Most of the remaining ballots will be counted on Nov. 10, and for most races, results will be definitive by Nov. 13. Overseas ballots are counted by Nov. 18.
Of the 40 House seats, a few are still in play:
District 4: Keith Kurber, the Republican challenger, is ahead of Democrat Rep. Grier Hopkins. If Hopkins gets 57 percent of the remaining votes to be counted, he can win. Hopkins won 65 percent of the early vote, until the Friday-Monday early vote. Anecdotally, a lot of conservatives cast their votes early over the weekend in Fairbanks.
District 5: Republican challenger Kevin McKinley could lose if Democrat Rep. Adam Wool gets 65% of remaining Fairbanks votes. Wool took 65% of early vote.
District 15: Republican David Nelson is ahead but Democrat Lyn Franks could win if she gets 59% of the remaining votes in Muldoon-East Anchorage. Nelson won 47% of the early vote. The remaining votes will be heavily military, so Nelson is fairly safe, as military members typically vote Republican.
District 16: Republican challenger Paul Bauer could lose if Democrat Rep. Ivy Spohnholz gets 55% of remaining votes. Spohnholz won 60% of early votes in the East Anchorage set.
District 21: Democrat Rep. Matt Claman will likely win re-election, over Republican challenger Lynette Largent in West Anchorage-Airport. Earlier, Largent was ahead but Claman has pulled ahead in the Election Day vote count, 50.42% to 49.31%, and is heavily favored in absentee ballots, due to ballot harvesting by statewide candidates Alan Gross and Alyse Galvin.
District 23: Kathy Henslee, the Republican challenger, would lose if the remaining votes break 61% for Democrat Rep. Chris Tuck. Tuck took 55 % of the early votes.
District 25: Republican Rep. Mel Gillis would have to get less than 38% of remaining votes. Calvin Schrage, the fake independent, would have to win 62% of the uncounted vote. Schrage took 58% of early votes already counted. Assuming that all remaining Republican votes go to Gillis and all remaining Democrat votes will go to Schrage, the most probable outcome is that Gillis will win by 100 votes. That would be historically accurate for the district.
District 27: Republican Rep. Lance Pruitt wins unless Democrat Liz Snyder wins 65% of remaining votes. Snyder took 52% of early votes.
District 31: Republican Rep. Sarah Vance wins unless fake independent Kelly Cooper wins 76% of remaining votes. There are no early votes in District 31.
District 35: Kenny Skaflestad, Republican, would lose if Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, the Democrat gets 52% of remaining votes. Only 15 early votes were cast in the district.
District 36: Republican challenger Leslie Becker can win over fake independent Rep. Daniel Ortiz if she wins 61% of remaining votes. No Early votes were cast in this Ketchikan-Wrangell-Metlakatla district.
Senate Seat H: Madeleine Gaiser would lose if 51% of remaining vote goes to Democrat Sen. Bill Wielechowski. She won just 38% of the early vote.