The latest election results update published by the Alaska Division of Elections around 6:00 PM on November 11 shows a probable victory for Jonathon Kreiss-Tomkins for Governor, Mary Peltola leading for U.S. Senate with spoiler candidates playing a significant role in results, and Congressman Nick Begich with a decisive win.
Now with 100% of precincts reported, Democrat Jonathon Kreiss-Tomkins has 122,353 first-choice votes followed by Republican Bernadette Wilson with 71,231 first-choice votes. Republican Dave Bronson took first-choice 34,188 votes and Republican Treg Taylor took 18,012. Write-ins totaled 697. With Kreiss-Tomkins at 49.64% of the vote, ranked-choice tabulation will decide the final outcome.
The three Republican tickets combined hold a 1,078-vote lead over Kreiss-Tomkins if every vote stays in play. However, RCV analysis using the state’s provided CVR (Cast Votes Record) shows multiple thousands of exhausted ballots because of voters who did not rank Wilson.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Mary Peltola holds 121,487 votes followed by incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan with 117,512 votes. Spoiler candidates Gerald Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. of Petersburg, both said to have been recruited by the Peltola campaign, hold 5,426 votes and 4,100 votes respectively. The incumbent senator lags behind Peltola by 3,975 votes, meaning the spoiler candidates may have a significant impact on the final result. With Peltola at 48.73% of the votes, ranked-choice tabulation will determine the final outcome. If voters who marked Heikes or Petersburg Dan as their first choice also ranked the incumbent Senator, Sullivan may pull a victory following tabulation.
Republican Congressman Nick Begich has held a steady lead over liberal nonpartisan Bill Hill. Begich holds 121,324 votes or 48.89% while Hill only holds 101,297 votes or 40.82%. Incarcerated felon Eric Hafner took 18,562 votes and Libertarian James “Jim” McDermott took 6,606 votes.
