Dittman Research for the win again, predicting all races correctly


Alaska-based Dittman Research was a clear winner on Tuesday, with a sweep of all the elections polled. The Alaska survey firm, started by Dave Dittman and now owned by Matt Larkin, predicted several races correctly. Before Tuesday’s election, Dittman made these predictions:

  • Mary Peltola would win on election night with 45.5% of first-choice votes. The current standing is Peltola with 47.26%.
  • Sarah Palin would come in second with 26.5% first-choice votes. She currently has 26.57%.
  • Nick Begich would come in third with 24.0% first-choice votes. He is standing at 24.19%.
  • Chris Bye would come in fourth with 3% first-choice votes. Bye is at 1.73%.

In the governor’s race, Dittman predicted:

  • Mike Dunleavy would win with 47.5% of first-choice votes. His actual result is currently 52.06%.
  • Les Gara would get 24.2%. His actual result is 23.07%.
  • Bill Walker would get 23.2%. Walker is at 20.10%.
  • Charlie Pierce would get 5.2%. Pierce is at 4.55%.

On Ballot Measure 1, the Constitutional Convention, Dittman predicted voters would reject it by 70%. In actuality, voters rejected the measure 69.84%.

Dittman’s predictions also delved into the second-round count. If Dunleavy drops to the 47.5% predicted by Dittman for the first round, Dittman predicts he’ll end up at over 51% in the second round. Dittman predicts Peltola will will for Congress with 56% of the votes in the final round of counting for that race. Those results won’t be known until Nov. 23, due to Alaska’s slow election process that was made worse with the ballot measure passed in 2020 that brought ranked choice voting into play in the general election.

The information that Dittman provided the day before the election:

Dittman Research is Alaska’s most trusted pollster, and has been accurately predicting the races for governor and U.S. Senate for over 50 years, since its founding in 1969, It has commercial clients and has political clients.

“We’re very pleased once again to have accurately predicted the outcome of another election cycle, and we’re grateful for the thousands of Alaskans who willingly share their views with us on the issues of the day so that we can provide the public with relevant and accurate public opinion information,” said Matt Larkin, CEO.


  1. Alaska is a red state, and the governor’s race proves it. Peltola is an unknown and the GOP will get together one day and remove her, after all 53% chose a republican.

    • Yes. We got rid of Mark Begich.
      Palin screwed this up for now; hopefully she stays outside for good this time.
      Unless Lisa Murkowski passes away, then SP will pop up again to hand that election to a Dem.

    • The GOP is almost on life-support and the Dem party is loaded with it’s own problems: A CinC that is in pronounced Alzheimer decline and veep that is so dam-dumb, she can hardly scratch her name in the dirt with a stick. They elected a vegetable from PA to the senate and host of many others that are so incompetent they hide from any debate, as it would expose them.

      They takeaway is: the globalist elitist oligarchs have amassed enough power and wealth that they control large segments of govt and the idiots elected are just their placeholders. That’s why anyone who refuses to bend to their will, is eventually crushed…

  2. It’s good that the pollster has a good record, but in this ranked choice first one, who can really tell? And as the votes continue to come in, will we see an unwelcome complete turn to the left. I certainly hope not. Seeing Walker or Gara win is still my worst nightmare. The senate race is interesting, but Tshibaka would have needed over 20% more of the vote to defeat Murkowski. As Suzanne has said, Murkowski’s additional support will come from the democrats on the second round. In a regular system the best vote-getter wins. RCV betrays that and set up too many cases of collusion between lesser candidates. It is capable of ultimately gaming the elections for whomever the local deep state wants. Of course, it is being promoted by that same Alaska deep state as an answer to the voter’s prayers. In fact it is just the opposite.

    • Many States such as Georgia require a run-off of the top two if nobody has 50% +1 on election day. Ranked choice voting is simply an automatic run-off when nobody has 50% + 1 in the initial election. This saves Alaska time and money in administering elections and saves Alaskans from more negative political advertising. What’s not to like?

      • Frank, there is a mountain not to like about rank choice voting, a good part of which that it is both confusing and, most damning ofall, unauditable. “Just trust us”, is what the deep state gamers of this voting system keep repeating. Yeah, that always works with those in power.

  3. My understanding is that DOE will release another tranche of ballots received and vetted on November 18th, I totally understand why Dittman does not release polling on undecided races. It makes good business ense to wait on confirmed results before releasing polling data, I would imagine Dittman’s clients require this by Contract anyway.There are already too many anonymous uncomfirmed stories and alternative facts floating around.

  4. Dittman Research received $55,500 from Defend Our Constitution to do its polling. I believe this is worth noting because 1) Defend Our Constitution was the primary no campaign coalition on the constitutional convention question Dittman Research polled, and 2) the poll results were for the use of the no campaign, not the general public.

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