Day 14 of Alaska ballot counting, and suddenly the repeal of ranked-choice voting is losing

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The Alaska Division of Elections released a new batch of ballot results Monday. These were straggler absentee ballots from the Nov. 5 election, and the result shows that suddenly the repeal of ranked-choice voting with Ballot Measure 2 is losing. Earlier reports showed it winning.

The No to repealing the ranked-choice voting is now at 157,124, or just over 50%, while those who want to repeal RCV are at 156,932, 49.97%.

The difference is 192 votes. All the 3,928 ballots counted and reported today were absentee ballots from House Districts 9-24 in Anchorage.

There may be up to 6,000 left to count on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it’s not clear from the information being released by the Division of Elections just how many it has. The Valley absentee votes have yet to be counted, it appears, and Fairbanks is also in play for its absentee votes. They have yet to finish counting Districts 25 through 36 absentee.

According to Phil Izon, one of the people who pushed for a repeal, the timeline of how the votes have gone on Ballot Measure 2 over the past 14 days is as follows:

11/05 – (Election Day)
Yes to Repeal – 113,708 – 51.30%
No to Repeal – 107,946 – 48.70%

11/06 –
Yes to Repeal – 125,230 – 50.87%
No to Repeal – 120,941 – 49.13%

11/07 –
Yes to Repeal – 125,489 – 50.83%
No to Repeal – 121,367 – 49.17%

11/08-
Yes to Repeal – 125,610 – 50.84%
No to Repeal – 121,473 – 49.16%

11/09 – No Results Updated

11/10 – No Results Updated

11/11 – No Results Updated

11/12 – No Results Updated

11/13-
Yes to Repeal – 146,182 – 50.4%
No to Repeal – 143,770 – 49.6%

11/14 –
Yes to Repeal – 146,202 – 50.4%
No to Repeal – 143,777 – 49.6%

11/15 –
Yes to Repeal – 152,915 – 50.3%
No to Repeal – 151,239 – 49.7%

11/16 –
Yes to Repeal – 155,592- 50.1%
No to Repeal – 154,697 – 49.9%

11/17 – No Results Updated

11/18 –
Yes to Repeal – 156,932 – 49.97%
No to Repeal – 157,124 – 50.03%

Also, in this latest tranche of ballots, Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola has gained more votes, but is still losing.

Rep. Cliff Groh, the Democrat who represents District 18, north Anchorage. Groh gained 15 votes and now has a lead of 25 over challenger David Nelson, the Republican.

The total number of ballots counted now is 332,386 out of the 611,078 registered voters in Alaska. Not all voters voted in every race on the ballot.

164 COMMENTS

    • Photo finish my butt, it gave you left wing donkeys time to come up with a plan to cheat!

      More like a “Easy online photo editor”

      • Once again a MAGA whine with no evidence. Alaska statute states votes must be received with 15 days after the election date, and post marked on or before the date of the election. No cheating, just counting all the votes.

        • When the Alaska voter rolls are filthy dirty @ 113% of eligible age registration, yes – votes DON’T count. A healthy registration rate in any state is 60 – 70%

          • Often states with transient populations have a high rate of voter registrations as people don’t cancel when they move out of state.

        • Alaska statute also says that write-in candidate names must be spelled correctly to count, but that didn’t matter in 2010, did it?

        • Not whining.
          Just pointing out that every time there is a close race, and the counting drags on, for some reason, the left side of the political aisle always comes out ahead.
          To my knowledge, there has not been a “last minute vote surge” that benefited the right side of the aisle.
          .
          So, when one side of the political aisle always benefits from last minute counting, it is evidence. Statistically improbably events like that are evidence.

            • In other words, the left side of the political aisle is more willing to use a method of voting that is not secure in any way, therefore open for fraud.

            • Another thought on that.
              First of all, do you have anything to back that up, or just speculation?
              Secondly, vote by mail is a relatively recent trend. How do you explain it before that became common?
              Third, no-excuse absentee voting falls into the same category. Recent trend. I am looking for examples from the entire history of voting in the US.
              Finally, who votes absentee the most? The military. And, is the military comprised of conservatives or leftists? HINT: It is overwhelmingly conservative.
              So, your claim does not seem to hold much water.

        • Keep your head in the sand while wearing your pink pussy-cat hat “freedom not-4 Alaska voters”
          Did you see trump has 76,578,494 votes and still rising?
          Won the House!
          Won the Senate!
          Now go shave your head, cut off your husband and cry, cry, cry!

    • Seriously.
      What are the odds that an election, with tens of thousands of diverse voters, can come down to a percentage point or two.
      Statistically, this is VERY improbable.
      Yet, it happens, over and over.
      We are being played(?)…

      • I would say yes. Evidence of how fraudulent Alaska elections are, albeit selectively. The billionaires providing the 15 million dollars of outside dark money to lure and brainwash low info voters into voting no on 2 almost certainly had a backup plan in place to make up any needed difference to โ€˜succeedโ€™. We are seeing it โ€˜playโ€™ out. There really should be a forensic audit but how that can be pursued I have no idea.

  1. Keep counting until you win… and if you don’t, count some more? This is not what is needed to instill trust in the election process. It can’t be this complicated, this drawn-out, and this opaque to the residents of Alaska.

    “Trust us”
    No.
    You need to show us your work.

      • Specifically looking for 7,000 – 9,000 ballots that are missing all judge retention votes. At least 30% of voters, on average, voted for non-retention – an oddity in any election. But the word is out on corruption in Alaska’s judicial bench thanks to David Haeg.

  2. I’m glad they are counting all of the ballots. Somehow the Republicans are in charge but then complain about the process when they are losing. COUNT ALL THE VOTES THAT HAVE BEEN CAST LEGALLY!

    • I am glad they are counting every vote.
      I am also going to point out how statistically improbable it is that one side of the political aisle always seems to be the beneficiary of last minute vote counting.

      • If it’s true that “one side always seems to benefit”, which is not self-evident, could it be because of where late-arriving votes typically come from, or the political leanings of people who vote at the last minute and by mail? It would be helpful to have that data from several elections before coming to conclusions. Being suspicious is one thing but proving suspicions are true is another. I’m totally fine with a recount and an audit–let the chips fall where they may–but where is the kvetching about all the races your side won on?

        • It could be because of that.
          Then again, who almost always votes absentee? The military. And the military generally leans right.
          And, before we had no-excuse absentee voting (mail in) the trend was exactly the same. Sudden surge of votes at the end, always benefits the left side of the aisle.

  3. This is corruption. Who the heck wanted to keep RCV? There should be a serious forensic investigation. This was drug out until they could produce ballots for people who likely never went to the polls.

    • False narrative by Elizabeth Henry.
      The ballots will all be recounted.
      Stop yapping about which you are ignorant and help with the recount by observing the recount if you want to inspect the way and number of citizens who voted.

      • Recounting ballots that never should have been accepted in the first place really only satisfies short-sighted, small-minded people.

      • Recounting rarely changes the outcome. First of all, if a mistake was made in the first count, odds are a similar enough mistake will happen in the recount. Next, recounts do nothing to verify if the ballot is valid. They count it. So illegally cast ballots are counted equal to valid ballots.
        .
        Imagine I give you a stack of $1 bills. There are 95 legitimate pieces of US currency, and five rectangular pieces of paper that say One Dollar on them in red crayon. A recount will determine there are 100 pieces of paper that say one dollar.
        .
        An, audit on the other hand, will examine the rectangular pieces of paper and determine if they are, in fact, US Currency before they count them. Calling for a recount is not the right thing. Calling for an audit is.

  4. Where are the Republicans challenging this apparent fraud in the courts? Or are the majority of our state politicians on the take?

    • Bald conclusion without evidence. Where do s the fraud?
      Every ballot will be counted and then there be a recount that will be observed by advocates for the repeal.
      If youโ€™re so โ€œconcerned,โ€ stop whining and help with the recount.

    • Sure there were. We all know someone n some basement filled out dozens of illegal ballots, which is why Harris won in Alaska. Itโ€™s gotta be a conspiracy, right? Really, the lunar landing by Neal Armstrong never happened. There had to be a second shooter on the grassy knoll, right?

    • Sherry: Actually, no.
      When โ€œtheyโ€ put RCV into Alaska (a phenomenon that is grammatically dubious), the citizens adopted the manner of voting under the old system.

      • In 2020 the No on 2 (against RCV) was winning right up until the last day to count ballots. Just like this year, where the anti-RCV was winning, right up to the last minute.
        .
        Coincidence, I am sure.

        • Good point, and I agree.
          At this point, it is speculation. An unanswered question. Why did the attempt to repeal RCV in 2024 have an almost identical vote count pattern as in 2020? The anti-RCV winning right up to the last minute, when a flurry of late counted ballots pushed it across the finish line.
          Weird stuff deserves investigation.

  5. AK politics are a disgrace. Controlled by out of state dark money that donโ€™t care one bit about the residents of this state. Worse thing is many of our politicians are so spineless they wonโ€™t even stand up and speak out against it.

    • $15,000,000 to keep RCV was spent by the Liberal Left strongholds of Denver, Chicago, Houston, and Arlington on a state with 3 Electoral votes, a population of 733,000, and zero political clout. We must ask ourselves why.

      • But tens of millions more were spent on 2024 RCV ballot measures in 8-9 other states, all of which said NO to RCV except the DC swamp. I read they target the smaller states first to set a precedent, but I am not sure this is correct.

  6. Pretty much all balloting was approx 50/50, then in the last dump Yes went up only 1,340 votes and No went up 2,427 votes. Then only Yes got 35% vote and No got 65%. Agreed that seems suspicious.

    • But wait, what if it reflects the intent of the voters in the district from which the ballots were cast?
      Wait until the ballots come in from Wasilla.

    • How many times would you watch the count swing contrary to its apparent initial balance AND your inclination, AFTER the counting was on a historic basis typically concluded, before you would begin to think maybe something is a little fishy here. Add to your consideration that it CONSISTENTLY goes contrary to initial indications and YOUR inclination and favors the contrary every time.

      All good, right?

    • I have been saying it before this election even started. As long as RCV is alive in this state, the cheating will happen. Get back in your dog house.

    • Tell you what, dog.
      Point to a single time when a last minute vote count swung the race to the right side of the political aisle. Do that, and I will retract any claims I make about funny business.
      .
      Until proven otherwise, I am sticking with my statement. When the last minute votes are counted, and the left needs a win, somehow, they get it.

        • Ahhh…. the 2000 election and Florida.
          Not applicable. There was no sudden flurry of votes that showed up as counting was wrapping up. The ballots were all received, accounted for, and counted in a reasonable amount of time.
          .
          The issue was one candidate refused to believe the outcome, and they kept demanding recounts, but only in their hand selected counties/districts.
          .
          The two situations are not even remotely close.

    • What?
      That makes no sense. Educate yourself on what RCV is. It is designed to give the lowest chance person of winning the winning position, like in 2022.
      3rd generation Alaskan means nothing to me, you get no street cred when you vote like a foolish person and state you are a republican, you just look foolish.

      • An audit, specifically looking for mechanical markings or 7,000 – 9,000 ballots with zero votes for judicial retention will reveal the “problem”. 30% of Alaskans, on average, voted for non-retention of judges.

      • Recounts do not verify the validity of the ballot. It just counts the markings.
        .
        Consider, I give you a stack of $1 bills. 95 of them are actual US currency, five are rectangles of paper with the word One Dollar written on them. A recount will verify that you have 100 one dollar bills. An audit will determine that five of those bills are not actual US currency, and therefore invalid.

  7. Agree! Check the addresses – check if someone has been voting for someone else. I don’t trust any count that takes longer than 24 hours after the election.

  8. It was obvious after 2020, that America has a issue with fraud in its elections. Alaska has the issue as well, fraud is so easy if computers are involved with the counting. RCV is only tabulated by computers, all our vote is subject to this corruption.

  9. “It not who voted that counts, it is who is counting that counts” I’ve advised my email associates for the last three days as the count tighten that the result will be #2 being reversed and the “Yes’s” lost.
    Surprise should not be in the mix as the count is in Juneau, the Hot Bed of liberalism. What is surprising is Peltola not gaining the same and overturning the obvious to date results.
    Cheers

  10. You can bet Murkowskiโ€™s fingerprints are all over the โ€œcountingโ€ of BM2. And Dunleavy who is her useful idiot will do nothing. I can hear Murkowski, Dahlstrom, and Dunleavy saying โ€œFine, we will go along with the Begich win( after they made Nancy drop out) but force them to keep the RCV scam despite 8 or 9 states voting NO on it this year.

  11. Lisa Murkowski has to be involved in this ballot fraud some way, shape or form. And does anybody have Scott Kendall’s phone number? He might have an idea what may be happening. Asking for a friend of course.

  12. WTF…Alaskans are the epitome of “low information voters”. Alaskans are foolish sheep easily led astray by out of state Democrat radio ads made to sound conservative on voting No on Prop 2.
    I’m convinced Palin threw her hat in the ring to go up against Nick Begich in 2020 to split the vote. She was never a conservative, but low information voters think she was and they didn’t and still don’t understand how RCV works. It’s a clown world of stupidity.
    Closed primaries keep our elections fair and more balanced (even though Democrats register as Republicans and that’s why we still have Murkowski).
    Alaskan politics is corrupt to the the core and the good people that live in our state need to educate themselves (never happen).
    I ran off the canvassers, who were getting signatures in front of the Post Office here in Soldotna for Prop 1.
    (Illegal to do political petitions at the Post Office).
    I watched people blindly sign the petition not understanding that it wasn’t just about raising the minimum wage but they just signed there religious freedoms away. The left coast wants Alaska bad and wants us to fall in line with Washington, Oregon and California.
    Well you did it Alaska!
    Bunch of dumb mooks.

    • There is no ranking in ballot measures, so your vote was likely found to be invalid altogether if you marked both Yes and No. – sd

  13. This state is dead… period. 54% Trump yet the same 54% couldn’t vote for Begich and couldn’t be educated enough not to vote yes on 2. Alaskans are dumb and this state is dead. Glad to be leaving, and certainly won’t be looking back. Have fun with your quasi communist state government, which doesn’t even have the backbone to follow its own laws as written, and you’ll forever be lost with RCV. Republicans will continue to lose elections and their power in Alaska will continue to dwindle to democrats who will continue to rob the people of their money.

    • Your state is dwindling because the oil is running out. Simple as that. There’s little reason for young people to stay and so they move away if they can. The older cohort that moved up for the oil boom is retiring Outside or dying off. So, the State’s population is shrinking every year now and will likely continue to do so.

      The only bright spot is that as the globe heats up due to the incessant burning of fossil fuels, climate refugees will move further and further north. So you all have that working in your favor. Cool.

      • NO – The oil is not running out! The liberals want to keep it off-limits so the mosquito’s don’t go extinct (heavy dose of sarcasm for you brain dead people).

        • Prudhoe Bay is basically over, and there are others like it. Everything else is small potatoes. And your LNG export project will never happen. Alaska is going to slowly revert back to something like it was in the 50s – a place dependent on Federal spending. Now, what happens when Mr. Musk and Mr. Ramasmarmy cut your Federal dollars? You may be about to find out.

        • Prudhoe Bay is basically over, and there are others like it. Everything else is small potatoes. And your LNG export project will never happen. Alaska is going to slowly revert back to something like it was in the 50s โ€“ a place dependent on Federal spending. Now, what happens when Mr. Musk and Mr. Ramasmarmy cut your Federal dollars? You may be about to find out.

      • The oil production on NorthSlope is doubling in the next forty months . That comment you made couldnโ€™t be farther from the truth .

        It may triple in the next ten years . Companyโ€™s cannot fill jobs now . Union dispatches are going unfilled in Fairbanks for construction jobs that pay $5000 plus a week .

        President elect Trump has been quoted as saying โ€œ NorthSlope gas line is going to mandated for national security interestsโ€ .

        Itโ€™s really hard to quantify the residents living in Alaska as we have 75-100,000 folks working in tourist industry , oil and gas and fishing industry that are transient workers . I worked in oil industry for 35 years and about 75% did not live in Alaska other than working here .

        • Then you remember when oil production was 2 MBOD. Those days are long gone and never to return. Sure, there will be an oil industry for a long time, but current production is small potatoes compared to that of the past and which turned Alaska into a petro state. The glory days of the past are gone, the majors have mostly pulled out, and new developments are small. Pray that TAPS can keep running.

  14. Like I said… None of this matters… Each side will run a vote splitting more than evil candidate against the other who will not drop out… It’s all fun and games… It’s all fake and distracting so the money printing can continue… 5 billion here, 10 billion there, another 100 billion someplace else but never for Americans… Never… Then we see the results in the form of inflation… Stuff cost more because of all the fake money printing… You will not get a raise at work but your rent, income taxes and property taxes will all go up to pay the interest on all that fake money… Don’t worry though… Trump will save you… Again… ^^^

  15. So interesting…..Soros money absolutely inundated the landscape here in Alaska to obfuscate and confuse voters about RCV. Then, even though we likely voted it down, they keep the slow drip of ballot counting trickling in until we are weary and lose sight of the cheating. Perhaps the disgraced attorney from Juneau past, who keeps saying there will be a ‘recount’ (which does nothing to expose fraud), might be playing controlled opposition here??

  16. All this shows is that most Alaskan voters aren’t very bright. RCV was put on the ballot in several states this year and it was shot down in all of them (not even close) except for DC and all of them knew the results within days after the election.

      • Exactly right JenL, I think the problem here is how they worded the ballot measure and some voters voted no thinking that the no vote would remove RCV from our state. Whichever way it goes it’s going to be very, very close and hopefully in our favor.

  17. Without proof, y’all are crying about election fraud on ONE issue. Yet Begich won (probably), Trump won handily, and across the nation Republicans won both the house and senate. Yet you whine (without proof) about the election being rigged on ONE issue? If the democrats rigged the election, why did republicans do so well?

    I’m certain if the yes margin on RCV repeal was increasing with the additional ballots, y’all wouldn’t be claiming fraud. But, go on with your whining, it is entertaining.

    • Considering that most of the input during public sessions were overwhelmingly against RCV, you don’t think it’s a bit suspicious that the 60-75% of those testifying stated they did NOT want RCV, yet the votes don’t reflect that?

    • Tell you what, Bill.
      If you can point to a single instance where a last minute surge of votes resulted in anything other than a win for the left side of the political aisle, I will drop any claims of funny business.
      .
      So, either pony up examples where the left side lost in a last minute vote count. Or, stop being obtuse.

      • CBMTTek, my good fellow, you do know correlation does not equal causation don’t you? Maybe it’s as simple as more left leaning people are likely to vote via absentee ballot, which must arrive within 15-days of the election? Can you point to a single instance, supported by evidence, where voter fraud changed the outcome of an election?

        Either pony up examples where the left has fraudulently won an election, or stop being stupid.

        • I do know correlation is not causation.
          However, correlation is where unanswered questions show up, and unanswered question are where the investigation starts.
          .
          But… no investigation. Despite the fact that one side of the political aisle always seems to benefit.
          .
          And, sure… it is quite possible that folks on the left tend to vote absentee more often. Then again, that may just be an assumption supported by… nothing.
          .
          Can I point to a single instance where it changed the outcome of an election. No, because NO ONE ever investigates. And when investigation does happen, one side of the political aisle fights tooth and nail to stop it. Finally, due to the anonymous nature of our voting system, proving who voted illegally is impossible, so no charges, no prosecutions, and no ability to prove what ballots were cast, or for which candidate. Maricopa County, despite stringent opposition by the left, was able to conduct an audit of their 2020 election, and it turns out tens of thousands of ballots were illegally submitted. But, proving that changed the outcome is impossible with the anonymous nature of our election system.
          .
          And, it does not matter whether the outcome of the election was changed or not. One fraudulent vote is too many. It erases a valid vote from a legal voter. Why are you not concerned about that? Because you know it is impossible to prove vote fraud changed the outcome of an election for the reasons I stated above. But, you likely also know there are hundreds of people who have been tried and convicted of vote fraud, but in small numbers.

        • “Maybe itโ€™s as simple as more left leaning people are likely to vote via absentee ballot…”
          OK, maybe.
          Then again, who is most likely to vote absentee? The military. And, is the military comprised overwhelmingly of conservatives? Yes.
          Finally, no-excuse absentee ballots (mail in voting) is a relatively recent trend. Your assumption fails completely when you consider historical trends.
          .
          I will ask again.
          Show me an instance when a last minute batch of ballots swung an election to the right side of the political aisle. Feel free to use the entire US history from all States.

          • You’re asking me to provide evidence to support your conspiracy theory – that somehow democrats are fraudulently throwing elections with last minute ballots. I’m not interested in doing research for you because I think your theory is entirely stupid in the face of the current facts (at least for Alaska): Trump won, Begich won. Why would there be a vast conspiracy to steal only the RCV repeal? It doesn’t make any sense. I could see a conspiracy, maybe, to steal the RCV repeal and keep Peltola in the House (by manipulating the RCV), but not causing Alaska to go for Harris because that would be too unbelievable.

            You really want to the elections to be rife with fraud, yet nobody on either side has provided strong enough evidence to support there being fraud of a scale to throw the election. This includes a lot of Trump appointed judges in the 2020 election.

            My brother in Christ, you’re spinning a conspiracy theory. It’s time to take off the tinfoil hat. MAGA won, decisively.

            • Reading comprehension is not exactly your strong point there Bill, is it?
              .
              I point out a trend that has been going on across the nation for decades, but you insist on only examining this current election? Why? I am guessing it is because you cannot locate an instance where a last minute surge of ballots benefitted the right side of the political aisle.
              .
              “Why would there be a vast conspiracy to steal only the RCV repeal?”
              Why wouldn’t there be? Can you name a better way to manipulate the election without actually committing fraud? Who won this election is meaningless, RCV is about the long term, not one election.
              .
              “…yet nobody on either side has provided strong enough evidence to support there being fraud of a scale to throw the election.”
              What constitutes evidence? Tell me. Does it require time in a courtroom and some conviction? If your car is stolen, and no one is arrested and charged, does that mean there is no evidence your car was stolen?
              .
              There is plenty of evidence of vote fraud, but the authorities refuse to investigate. When the Maricopa county audit determined tens of thousands of ballots were likely illegally cast, no one looked into it. No investigation no proof. Try actually reading and trying to understand what I wrote above.
              .
              Finally, what conspiracy theory?
              Tell me how often the right side of the political aisle benefits from the last minute counts. In a system that is not being manipulated, the percentage should approach 50%, but in reality, that percentage approaches zero.
              Pointing out a statistical anomaly that is unlikely to happen without intervention is not a conspiracy theory.

  18. Why are the last ballots counted from Anchorage?
    Seems weird. What is the reason why these ballots just languished to the last minute?

  19. If you like not knowing the results of an election for 15 days, then you should have voted against Prop 2.

    If you want to prevent unskilled workers from getting hired, then you should have voted for prop 1.

  20. Astonishing how long counts only benefit Democrats 100% of the time across the entire country.

    This is criminal and as Trump vowed and backed by America, all of you cheaters will be going to jail. ๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚

    #MakeCriminalsAfraidAgain
    #JusticeIsComing

  21. 611,000 registered voters? Population estimate according to the state itself is 739,000 with 24% of the population 17 years old and under. Yet, 82% of the population is registered? I suppose active duty military can play into the figures. Subtract the incarcerated/disqualified and the apathetic who simply arenโ€™t registered. Those are some funny numbers.

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