As Democrats face what some are calling an “existential threat” to the party itself, President Joe Biden may be in denial, telling campaign insiders that he is going to win.
It looks less and less likely that he can do so, as Democrats are actively looking for alternatives.
Statistician Nate Silver said today that it’s one of the “craziest asks” in the history of American politics to expect people to vote for someone who will be president until he is 86.
The polls back up what Silver is saying, especially compared to polling from four years ago.
On July 3, 2020, polling showed Biden was 9.6% ahead of Donald Trump, 51.1% to 41.5%. These were national surveys aggregated by Silver’s FiveThiryEight.com
But on July 3, 2024, the New York Times has release a poll of registered voters says that 49% are for Trump and 41% for Biden.
That’s a 17-point shift from polling the same point in the campaign during 2020.
Biden Democrats like Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola have gone into hibernation. As the Democrats look toward their nominating convention in Chicago starting Aug. 19, they can’t back away from Biden, because he might be the nominee, but they can’t stand by him either, because he might not be the nominee. No Democratic candidate wants to be tied to him, including Peltola.
Silver’s prediction says that for the first time ever, Trump is forecasted to win the popular vote, 53.8% to 46.2%. That’s getting close to landslide territory, leaving loyalists like Peltola in trouble, as Alaska is likely to reflect a strong turnout for Trump.
What does a Biden Democrat like Peltola do? She can’t stay in hibernation until the November and pretend that voters will only care about fish on Election Day.
The only thing Alaskans know of what Peltola thinks about Biden is what she said in December: Biden is one of the “smartest, sharpest people” she has met in Washington, D.C.
Either she has been revealed to lack judgment, or Peltola has been shown to be a partisan, willing to lie to Alaskans on behalf of her political ambitions. After all, she has met with Biden on eight occasions in the White House. The Alaska Democratic Party has also remained in radio silence on the fate of the top leader in their party.
The New York Times is reporting growing discontent and a distancing from Biden.
“Democratic leaders in the House and Senate were not urging their members to rally around Biden on Wednesday. Instead, they were listening to a myriad complaints from across the party, including its centrist wing and its progressives,” the newspaper reported.
“The message from leadership was that members should feel free to take a position about Biden’s candidacy that was best for their districts. Members of Biden’s team … were working the phones, trying to tamp down the growing discontent.”
That could be the signal Peltola has been waiting for in order to distance herself from Biden.
