Betting markets putting Palin on top, Begich second


The betting markets are already taking wagers on the race to replace Alaska’s congressional representative. PredictIt, which is a place where people bet on current events and candidate chances, says Alaska’s former governor has the best chance of winning the seat that is vacant after the death of Congressman Don Young.

Palin bets are now going for 55 cents, with Nick Begich bets now going for 25 cents.

PredictIt is a betting market established by an academic group as a way to determine if real betting was a predictor of success. Owned by Victoria University in New Zealand, PredictIt has offered betting exchanges on political and financial events since 2014. It is headquartered in Washington, D.C.

The wagering is taking place among people in the Lower 48 who are not that familiar with Alaska politics in general, and many are not likely aware of the new ranked choice voting system that will determine the next winners.

In the new market opened for the congressional seat, Al Gross bets are at 15 cents and Tara Sweeney comes in fourth at 10 cents. Josh Revak, Gregg Brelsford and Chris Constant are 2 cents or lower.

John Aristotle Phillips, co-founder of the prediction company, says that platforms like this are better than polls because people have skin in the game and are more likely to consider the risk of their choices. But in a place like Alaska, and with an election that has 50 contenders in the special primary election, the odds are that the people betting have not had a chance to fully comprehend all the moving parts, including the fact that Palin supported Bill Walker for governor, brought down the oil industry by signing the ACES tax scheme, and has not given back to Alaska conservative causes since she left office.


  1. Palin will wear everyone out with her squeaky, screaming voice. We’ve heard it for the past 15 plus years. She will again be the butt of late night jokes, partisan ridicule, and mainstream media red meat. Again, she will make Alaskans look like uneducated hicks who can’t get beyond her brand of narcissism. Ex-Husband Todd got past her. Anyone know if Todd is supporting Nick Begich 3? I’d lay money down that he does.

  2. Again, just more outside influence and outside political money stuck in a cult of personality with no substance or ability to stay at one job. Palin has been riding a large wave of pop culture and media hype. And that wave has crested a long time ago. The once big Tsunami that was Sarah Palin is now just a little foamy water with seaweed and twigs as old fishing lures washing up on the beach. But for those of us that care about Alaska and what really needs to be done, we will vote for Nick Begich.

  3. Memories of the other Begich play into this. Look for the names to be exploited.

    Which “Republican” is the real one? We’ll have a clue when we see where the money is coming from but my guess is the left’s money will go to Palin as the perfect spoiler to turn Alaska a blueish shade of purple. One Republican/one RINO in The senate and an out-and-out tax-and-spend “Progressive” our sole voice in the house. And that at a time when no matter what happens here the House is going red. Very, very red.

    Will Ms. Palin be smart enough to not accept Trojan horse money?

    No, really????

    • LNelson, truth is sir, young Nick’s name sake was a ” conservative”, look it up, pro- life, pro – development. His Uncles are twisted democrats, not young Nick. Talk to him, ask him the hard questions. Then go look at what’s at stake. We need intelligent representation, not grandstanding. Sarah is all about Sarah.

    • Brian- join us in supporting Chris Bye. We concur why trust a party that helped give us $30t of debt and the patriot act oh and as Chris Bye says “Miccichi’d us” with permanent fund.
      We won’t be swindled again by the repubs and dems, we’re voting for Chris Bye.
      Easy choice.

  4. No worry if she gets in, all the people who forgot her crap will remember, she will shoot her mouth off, everyone will see again what stupid ass she is and she will not be reelected.

  5. I believe Alaskans have had enough of Sara Palin. Let’s get someone young and ambitious who will work for we the people of Alaska. My vote goes to Nick Begich I wouldn’t say that Sara is a Stupid Ass. When she ran for VP and a friend from the midwest asked what I thought about Sara. My reply: She is a nice person and if you were being chased down O’Malley road by a bear and she was driving by I am sure she would pick you up. Other than that not much there except beauty..

    • Beauty? Give me a break, Marge. Palin is a stick figure with a big head bun and an obtrusive voice that makes you want to crawl into a bear’s cave. Not even close to beauty.

      • Lakreesha, you’re talking nonsense and you know it. Palin is a physically attractive woman; especially for her age. However, she is not running for a beauty contest this time. The real point is, she is unqualified to represent Alaska in the House. Begich is the most logical choice. However, if physical appearance is what guides your choice then Begich is more handsome than average.

        • Wayne Douglas Coogan,
          I will remind you my son that God looks upon the Hearts of men and women and not upon outward appearance. As your spiritual mentor young Wayne I beseech thee to look past Sarah’s beguiling body and to see what is within her heart.
          Go with God.

  6. I remember a few of Palin’s mistakes (Walker); but she still was the best governor I witnessed here in Alaska. When I told my neighbor I was voting for Walker over Parnell; he kicked out of his house. My neighbor is voting Palin this time. My group of conservative friends are fed up with all the corrupt Repubs; they become dems once elected and most my friends are voting Palin. Larry, I’m surprised at you ha ha.

  7. I would have thought Coghill would come in 4th. Not that anyone actually wants him to run, but his name is more known than Sweeney and he’s slightly less reviled than Revak.

  8. All the factors and opinions are irrelevant, just hype and loud noises. The final decision is made by who counts the votes, not who vote. Ranked choice voting was installed for a reason, to avoid unpleasant upsets that affect special interests. Division of Elections are corrupt. Dunleavy is spineless and can be counted on to slink away from any controversial issue that angers the all powerful state unions. We have the most bloated voter rolls in the country, the margin to attach a phantom name to a ballot more than covers any margin of victory.

  9. The only reason this odds number is where it is, is name recognition. That’s all. Most Alaskans find her incredibly annoying and will never forget ACES. Beyond that, all you have to do is look at who shoved ranked choice voting (courtesy of outside money) down our throats, to know it was designed to manipulate elections leftward. And if that doesn’t work, they’ll just print more ballots and keep counting until they get the desired result.

  10. Any “real” Alaskan will not vote for Palin. They all remember what a nightmare she was for our state and continues to be a thorn.
    I will vote for Begich!

  11. I knew it! Liberal and RINO heads exploding all over the place. Not anyone’s fault that Alaskans are continually duped by RINOS just because of their last name. No more DYNASTIES! No more Begiches!

        • Laura- Chris is the logical choice. I met him at the Mat-Su Outdoor Show. He’ll represent us very well. Not a politician, not a DC insider, just a regular guy who will not have tow a party vote like the infrastructure bill or the largest ever omnibus spending bill like a party candidate would. Mitch, Kevin, Nancy, and Chuckie could not give one darn about Alaska except for its docile repub representatives who nearly always bend over for a vote. Why? Because the republicans want the money just not the blame for the debt. Chris Bye will not do that. I think we have enough of family political dynasties. He’s already said Alaska gets 6 years (3 terms) of him in House if elected then he is returning to guiding and coaching youth sports. Find any other candidate that supports term limits like him?
          That is all, carry on.

  12. By all accounts Begich seems far more qualified: technically, intellectually, emotionally. Additionally, there is the key issue on Palin’s resume’ of her being a quitter for a really lame reason; that is, she couldn’t handle political criticism. Her hyper-sensitivity to criticism was further revealed with her failed lawsuit against the NY Times. It is a practical reality US Representatives are continually criticized by numerous factions. Being thin-skinned is one many traits that make Palin unqualified.

  13. Palin’s a proven quitter that can’t even keep her marriage together. But she has the kingmaker’s endorsement, and there’s also the wild card of ranked choice voting. Should be interesting. I sure hope that she and NB3 don’t split the conservative vote and get Gross elected. NB3 all the way, for me.

  14. I never ever thought I would have a sign in my yard promoting a Begich for anything. I do now, Nick is the real deal. If you can’t get past the Begich name, you obviously know little to nothing about Nick. Youthful, bright, articulate and personable, he has a clear and positive vision for Alaska. We support Nick Begich 100%.

    • Mike Koskovich, your comment is accurate and well said. I attest: Nick is no run-of-the-mill Begich; he is verifiably qualified and conservative. :

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