By Michael Tavoliero
Alaska’s 2026 legislative fights are not going to be won by better insults; they will be won by a better machine: one built for Alaska’s election rules and one disciplined enough to translate voter anger into replacement candidates who take power.
The Alaska Republican Party is publicly signaling a 2026 plan in broad strokes to build a stronger grassroots network, recruit and develop a deeper bench of candidates, expand outreach by constructing a GOTV operation for 2026, raise money to staff up through efforts like “Freedom Club,” and run the normal district-to-state convention pipeline while framing 2026 as a critical cycle for volunteers, donors, and voters.
What it does not appear to publish, at least in its public newsletters and materials, is a hard, tactical blueprint: no clear target-seat list or path-to-majority map, no explicit RCV strategy or independent-expenditure architecture, no measurable milestones (registration, fundraising-by-quarter, volunteer deployment), and no transparent discipline/vetting mechanism beyond general unity messaging. The plan offers intent and priorities, but not an operational campaign plan that the public can audit.
The Alaska Watchman op-ed, “OPINION: How Alaska elects RINO traitors and what to do about it”, by Greg Sarber, January 5, 2026, frames the problem bluntly: a small group of Republicans repeatedly join Democrats in governing coalitions, and voters are left asking why “Republican majorities” do not produce Republican outcomes.
Sarber also makes the tactical point that two of the seven seats, Jesse Bjorkman and Kelly Merrick, will not face re-election until 2028, while the other five are on the ballot in 2026. That split gives voters a clear two-stage strategy: (1) replace five now (2026), (2) build a two-year runway to replace Bjorkman and Merrick in 2028.
In 2026, the “five must face voters” targets are the coalition-aligned Republicans whose seats are on the ballot: Sen. Bert Stedman (District A), Sen. Cathy Giessel (District E), the open Senate District C seat (Gary Stevens retiring; Louise Stutes running), and in the House, Rep. Chuck Kopp (HD 10) and Rep. Louise Stutes (HD 5) (whose House seat also becomes a target if she moves to the Senate).
The key structural insight: District C is the hinge. If Stutes moves from the House to the Senate, voters can either (a) allow a continuation of the “coalition Republican” lane into the Senate, and then lose her House seat to randomness, or (b) run a coordinated slate that contests both the Senate seat and the now-vulnerable House seat with a single narrative: stop exporting coalition behavior into higher leverage offices.
Alaska’s top-four primary and ranked-choice general require you to first make the top four, then win second-choice support beyond your faction. RCV punishes rage and rewards competence and trust, so replacing incumbents requires candidates who can win this system and a focus on governing behavior and outcomes, not labels.
Stage 1: Replacing the Five in 2026
Use a simple, enforceable standard and run as a coordinated team. Do not campaign on “RINO” vibes; campaign on behavior: make every challenger sign a public caucus commitment (organize with Republicans for control, don’t trade control for titles, and explain any vote that grows Medicaid/education bureaucracy or weakens PFD discipline). Then build a slate: shared four-pillar message (Medicaid, education, energy, PFD), shared ground game, and RCV discipline, so reform candidates rank each other instead of splitting votes. Recruit serious, locally credible adults who can stay calm and own one pillar and frame every race the same way: these seats decide who controls the legislature’s machinery, and results matter more than personalities.
Localize the message to the five 2026 targets and the districts their moves affect: Sen. Bert Stedman (Senate District A): focus on cost of living, energy and infrastructure reliability, and whether Juneau finance power serves citizens or the Apparatchik; Sen. Cathy Giessel (Senate District E—Anchorage): rates, crime and court dysfunction, school performance, and household affordability; Senate District C (open seat as Gary Stevens retires; Louise Stutes running): coastal/rural realities like energy reliability, fisheries infrastructure, workforce outflow, and basic service access; Rep. Chuck Kopp (House District 10—Anchorage): the same Anchorage pain points plus accountability for legislative control; and Rep. Louise Stutes (House District 5): a referendum on exporting coalition politics upward while simultaneously creating an open House seat that must be filled with a reform successor.
Win the primary by building a real turnout machine, assign precinct captains, knock doors, chase early and absentee ballots, and make at least two direct contacts with every target voter, because anger alone does not move votes; organized follow-through does. Then win the RCV general by earning second-choice support: talk to non-faction voters with respect, offer a competent cost-of-living plan, and contrast incumbents with facts (organizing votes, committee control, budget outcomes) so voters feel safe ranking you ahead of them.
Stage 2: Replacing Bjorkman/Merrick in 2028
Bjorkman and Merrick are not on the ballot until 2028, but do not wait. Start now: recruit strong local challengers (and a backup), build a fact-based record of their caucus choices and results, earn trust by showing up and solving local problems, and start forming RCV alliances early, in the event it is not repealed, so you can win second-choice support well before election season.
In other words: 2026 is your proof-of-competence cycle; 2028 is your clean-up cycle. If you flip even 2–3 of the 2026 five, you also change the internal legislature math and weaken the coalition gravitational pull before Bjorkman and Merrick are even on the ballot.
Replacing “RINOs” is not an insult campaign; it is an institutional replacement project. The other side of the table is not your rhetoric; it is an incumbency network, a funding web, and a system that rewards organized adults. The only winning strategy is to become the more competent organization: slate discipline, RCV maturity, behavior-based accountability, and candidates who can govern after they win.
