By Michael Tavoliero
Alaska’s 2026 legislative fights are not going to be won by better insults; they will be won by a better machine: one built for Alaska’s election rules and one disciplined enough to translate voter anger into replacement candidates who take power.
The Alaska Republican Party is publicly signaling a 2026 plan in broad strokes to build a stronger grassroots network, recruit and develop a deeper bench of candidates, expand outreach by constructing a GOTV operation for 2026, raise money to staff up through efforts like “Freedom Club,” and run the normal district-to-state convention pipeline while framing 2026 as a critical cycle for volunteers, donors, and voters.
What it does not appear to publish, at least in its public newsletters and materials, is a hard, tactical blueprint: no clear target-seat list or path-to-majority map, no explicit RCV strategy or independent-expenditure architecture, no measurable milestones (registration, fundraising-by-quarter, volunteer deployment), and no transparent discipline/vetting mechanism beyond general unity messaging. The plan offers intent and priorities, but not an operational campaign plan that the public can audit.
The Alaska Watchman op-ed, “OPINION: How Alaska elects RINO traitors and what to do about it”, by Greg Sarber, January 5, 2026, frames the problem bluntly: a small group of Republicans repeatedly join Democrats in governing coalitions, and voters are left asking why “Republican majorities” do not produce Republican outcomes.
Sarber also makes the tactical point that two of the seven seats, Jesse Bjorkman and Kelly Merrick, will not face re-election until 2028, while the other five are on the ballot in 2026. That split gives voters a clear two-stage strategy: (1) replace five now (2026), (2) build a two-year runway to replace Bjorkman and Merrick in 2028.
In 2026, the “five must face voters” targets are the coalition-aligned Republicans whose seats are on the ballot: Sen. Bert Stedman (District A), Sen. Cathy Giessel (District E), the open Senate District C seat (Gary Stevens retiring; Louise Stutes running), and in the House, Rep. Chuck Kopp (HD 10) and Rep. Louise Stutes (HD 5) (whose House seat also becomes a target if she moves to the Senate).
The key structural insight: District C is the hinge. If Stutes moves from the House to the Senate, voters can either (a) allow a continuation of the “coalition Republican” lane into the Senate, and then lose her House seat to randomness, or (b) run a coordinated slate that contests both the Senate seat and the now-vulnerable House seat with a single narrative: stop exporting coalition behavior into higher leverage offices.
Alaska’s top-four primary and ranked-choice general require you to first make the top four, then win second-choice support beyond your faction. RCV punishes rage and rewards competence and trust, so replacing incumbents requires candidates who can win this system and a focus on governing behavior and outcomes, not labels.
Stage 1: Replacing the Five in 2026
Use a simple, enforceable standard and run as a coordinated team. Do not campaign on “RINO” vibes; campaign on behavior: make every challenger sign a public caucus commitment (organize with Republicans for control, don’t trade control for titles, and explain any vote that grows Medicaid/education bureaucracy or weakens PFD discipline). Then build a slate: shared four-pillar message (Medicaid, education, energy, PFD), shared ground game, and RCV discipline, so reform candidates rank each other instead of splitting votes. Recruit serious, locally credible adults who can stay calm and own one pillar and frame every race the same way: these seats decide who controls the legislature’s machinery, and results matter more than personalities.
Localize the message to the five 2026 targets and the districts their moves affect: Sen. Bert Stedman (Senate District A): focus on cost of living, energy and infrastructure reliability, and whether Juneau finance power serves citizens or the Apparatchik; Sen. Cathy Giessel (Senate District E—Anchorage): rates, crime and court dysfunction, school performance, and household affordability; Senate District C (open seat as Gary Stevens retires; Louise Stutes running): coastal/rural realities like energy reliability, fisheries infrastructure, workforce outflow, and basic service access; Rep. Chuck Kopp (House District 10—Anchorage): the same Anchorage pain points plus accountability for legislative control; and Rep. Louise Stutes (House District 5): a referendum on exporting coalition politics upward while simultaneously creating an open House seat that must be filled with a reform successor.
Win the primary by building a real turnout machine, assign precinct captains, knock doors, chase early and absentee ballots, and make at least two direct contacts with every target voter, because anger alone does not move votes; organized follow-through does. Then win the RCV general by earning second-choice support: talk to non-faction voters with respect, offer a competent cost-of-living plan, and contrast incumbents with facts (organizing votes, committee control, budget outcomes) so voters feel safe ranking you ahead of them.
Stage 2: Replacing Bjorkman/Merrick in 2028
Bjorkman and Merrick are not on the ballot until 2028, but do not wait. Start now: recruit strong local challengers (and a backup), build a fact-based record of their caucus choices and results, earn trust by showing up and solving local problems, and start forming RCV alliances early, in the event it is not repealed, so you can win second-choice support well before election season.
In other words: 2026 is your proof-of-competence cycle; 2028 is your clean-up cycle. If you flip even 2–3 of the 2026 five, you also change the internal legislature math and weaken the coalition gravitational pull before Bjorkman and Merrick are even on the ballot.
Replacing “RINOs” is not an insult campaign; it is an institutional replacement project. The other side of the table is not your rhetoric; it is an incumbency network, a funding web, and a system that rewards organized adults. The only winning strategy is to become the more competent organization: slate discipline, RCV maturity, behavior-based accountability, and candidates who can govern after they win.
I may be an outlier, but I’m done with the AK GOP until I see actual results. It’s a joke. No support where needed over here, inappropriate support over there, lack of action, all talk and no walk. A joke. It’s become a big Uniparty of B.S. agenda and corruption. Hard pass.
Bob, I agree to the extent that the AK GOP has fallen in league with labor and NPOs, who line up at the government teet to capture “their share” every year. However, I believe Michael’s point is due consideration. The most challenging effort will be to find those individuals not willing to compromise their souls for 💸 and 💪, while maintaining their allegiance to their party’s platform and their constituents.
We’ll find the answer in prayer.
“RCV punishes rage and rewards competence and trust…” kind of nails the issue with ultra-right wing candidates: angry and incompetent is not a winning combination.
(Well except former Rep. Eastman who was very competent at generating rage).
Leftist radicals are very skilled and disciplined during the acquisition of power phases such that they can carry out the RCV playbook as intended.
They follow the orders and dictates of their maoist masters in the manner of a Rules for Radicals trained Alinsky acolyte.
Then upon acquisition of power and authority they can safely unleash the manifestations of their hidden and immeasurable rage upon the unwitting voting populace and law-abiding productive members of the society that they set about to pillage, denigrate, humiliate enslave and destroy.
Bob, well said sir!
Yes, though it’s not a path gorward.
so this is the SOA GOP narrative for Project 2025 at the state level? sorta like the Neoconserative 1998 for a Unipolar world order. seems the top intellectuals have forgotten that when the masses get hungry heads get separated from their bodies
world history is filled with examples, wonderful books written on the results. shouting “woke” doesn’t change the ultimate outcome. Capital keeps winning and labor loses each time. constructs of historical outcome will not be different this time.
the calmed benefits accumulate to the top, the masses pay for the failure and bailouts. america is heading for a drastic resetting of the world order, sadly it’s not going to be at the top. figure less a slow settling like Britain after the Second World War, more like the preached about roman empire collapse.
the unwinding is fast. if the. past 22 years of GOP bliss in Alaska is any indication the national unraveling will be unruly and chaotic. Alaska used to be a great place, now gerrymandering into intra party factions ,started with RINO slandering, carpetbagging from Ohio and NEPO political appointments.
we get what is deserved. glad I’m old, heading out for the great reward. alaska is insane with ignorance and lack of any level of self understanding, constantly whining about being abused. get real
“voters are left asking why “Republican majorities” do not produce Republican outcomes.”
BECAUSE. The people of Alaska are government dependent including much of the Republican voters receiving sone kind of help by government either in employment, medical, grants, and contracts.
……always beating a dead fish! Move on and vote them out!
RINO’s were always more of a problem in Congress than in local politics, until perhaps, the last ten years when NGO’s, unions and even foreign governments began to realize that all politics is local and began interfering in State legislative races in a big way! Heck we recently had a foreign country pay for a propaganda junket for four members of our legislature – Shelley Hughes-R, Neil Foster-D, Chuck Kopp-R & Bill Wielechowski – D! What state of Alaska legislative business interests were they attending to in Israel? The American right wing and the American left wing are both wings of the same bird! The Uniparty is one big club and you ain’t in it.
Pretty much every election, I hear the pundits saying the Republicans have to run a moderate if they want to win the election. For some reason, they never say the same thing about the Democrats… weird.
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Anyway, if one listens to advice saying you need to run a candidate that starts from the center, you will get a RINO. Effective and well thought out legislation requires debate from right and left, not just agreeing from the get go.
I’d say that one thing that is hurting the nation is the fact that there doesn’t seem to be a thing the voters can do if a RINO gets into office – except to wait until the next election cycle. In the meanwhile, the RINOs keep voting with the democrats and further destroy the state. We have the infiltrators who say they are Republican and they have the rah rah crowd that is there to defend them making those who want accountability from our representation in the Alaska House and Senate sound like troublemakers. When are we are done with being shut down by the RINOs and their friends? People need to look at how the reps in your district are voting and quit looking at how popular they are.
Thanks for at least offering a plan, instead of the usual whining from then tru-cons. Michael, we need detail at the operational level to make your plan work. Thanks for trying.
Very well constructed communication.
One glaring omission, which I will give the benefit of the doubt was inadvertent.
The humble ‘natives’ descendants of indigenous manchurians crossed the Bering Strait Land bridge during the ice ages in the past have since statehood was established used corrupt and criminal methods to steal the work product and property of those they deem ‘non-native’ by means of bribery and dark money partnership arrangements with state and federal level politicians. A cursory examination of the EPA Gold Bars, Dept of Interior, Bureau of Land Management and state level agencies grift and fraud utilizing both USAID and native only financing and cultural/political enterprises NGOs et al will reveal deep rooted criminal and bigoted hate-filled anti Caucasian, anti-Conservative and anti-Christian actions sanctioned or ignored by those with the authority and responsibility to preclude their occurrence. But these ‘noble natives’ include them in their organizational structure in highly compensated no-show no-work positions and both fund their campaigns and in true Alinsky fashion prevaricate and set out to destroy their bought-and-paid-for politicians’ political opponents (along with anyone who might impede their doing so).