When dueling Facebook videos give true polling data



Political campaigns gauge voter interest in different ways, and strategists from the competing teams try to explain and massage the results to suit their purposes.

This became evident in a recent Patinkin Poll released on behalf of the Bill Walker campaign, which showed Walker in the lead over Mike Dunleavy, 51 to 44 percent, among likely General Election voters.

Two video ads that appeared on Facebook in recent days have created their own kind of polling results. They are messages reflecting the values of Walker and those of Dunleavy, both running for the state’s highest office.


The first black-and-white ad came from the Walker camp. It’s the “Why I Ran” video described in this “Noir vision is Walker’s strange theme” story earlier this month on Must Read Alaska.

Click here to see the video. 

It was posted to Facebook on April 24 and has been seen 99,000 times, according to the social media site. That many views in a Facebook universe comes with a high-dollar advertising spend from the Walker-Mallott campaign.

But in spite of the high spend and the entire month it has been running, the “Why I Ran” video has only received about 300 “likes” from viewers.

That means only 3 out of about 1,000 people indicated they “like” the video message.

Well, maybe the “shares” are better. Some 74 people shared the post with their friends on Facebook, and several of those are Walker insiders. Others shared it along with several negative comments, such as this one:

“The good people of Alaska better not be bamboozled again by this guy.”


Dunleavy for Alaska posted a video this past Saturday, starring Jay Hammond speaking about the Permanent Fund. It’s also a retro video and has lots of real black-and-white and faded color footage of what Hammond actually said about the Permanent Fund and the dividend, and a screen shot of what Walker actually did.

In just four days it was seen by nearly 49,000 people, and received 653 “likes” and 582 shares. We could find no negative comments associated with the shares.

See the Dunleavy video here.


What’s unusual about the two videos is that, while presumably both camps paid for Facebook to show their videos to more people, the dark vision that Walker presented had nearly zero “organic” appeal, which means people didn’t share it.

But the old footage of Gov. Hammond, as presented by the Dunleavy camp, garnered an enviable organic reach with its 669 percent more “shares” in four days than the Walker video had in an entire month.

People sharing the video are not comparing Hammond to Walker. They’re associating Hammond and Dunleavy.

Dunleavy for Alaska is not the actual Dunleavy campaign, but a political action committee set up by several major contributors, including Francis Dunleavy (Mike’s brother), Bob Penney, Josh Peppard, and Al Haynes, to name a few.


  1. The Mike Dunleavy effort has transformed from a campaign to a movement over the last several weeks. We have never had anything like it in Alaska, at least in the almost 50 years I’ve been here. The Walker recession – entirely unnecessary but apparently invented in Juneau by Sterling Gallagher, Alice Rogoff and Bruce Botelho to pound an income tax into the sides of our heads – the PFD veto, and the farcical gas line and climate change stories are constantly discussed by Alaskans but are not as much of the Dunleavy movement story as one might expect. Instead, Alaska has suffered from weak, lukewarm leadership in all 3 branches of government and Dunleavy has appeared as the needed leader just in time. Alaskans have suffered at the hands of Walker, Seaton, Edgmon, and LeDoux. We need a D-Day, and it’s November 6. Today you need to go find a Dunleavy yard sign.

  2. Great job We the people of Alaska for Dunleavy!! Or should I say Governor Dunleavy with Gods Grace in hand for All Alaskans.

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