What to expect from the long delay in ranked-choice voting results after Nov. 5

18

Ranked-choice voting makes the election season longer in Alaska. Final results won’t be known until Nov. 20 — fully 15 days after the final ballots are cast on Nov. 5.

That’s because the Division of Elections cannot run the calculation for where second and third-place ballot choices will go until all the ballots are in from overseas and they know who is really in second place on the ranked-choice ballot.

In normal elections, voters have a good sense of what the results are, even if the overseas ballots are delayed. It’s known if there are enough outstanding ballots to make a difference in the Election Night results.

But with ranked-choice voting, some races will be “sit-and-wait.”

In 2022, when Mary Peltola was elected to the U.S. House, there was no clear winner for weeks. That meant that Peltola ended up with the least amount of seniority of the incoming House freshmen class. And in the meantime, Sarah Palin attended freshman orientation and announced she had hired her chief of staff, so sure was she that she would prevail. She did not.

There’s always a possibility that those in races with more than one candidate will reach the magic 50%+1 votes needed to be declared a winner. That happened in 2022 to Gov. Mike Dunleavy, who didn’t have to wait for ranked-choice calculations because he was the outright 50+1 winner (he won with 50.19% of the final vote.)

But even in the presidential race, the winner in the national level will be declared long before Alaska’s ranked-choice votes are counted. That is, unless Alaska’s three electoral votes are the ones that actually determine if the winning candidate has 270 electoral votes. In that case, Alaska will hold up the entire nation for more than two weeks because of ranked-choice voting.

If a close election happens, on Nov. 8 — three days after the election — with 99% of the ballots in, the Division of Elections can, if it chooses to, process everything in hand and determine if a candidate prevails without any of the handful of overseas votes.

Election Day counting may include ballots voted on Oct. 30, and 31, depending on how busy the Division of Elections is.

In this election, Alaska conservatives are up over 11,600 more Republican leaning voters having voted than Democrat-leaning voters. That’s an important measure because in the past, conservative voters have waited until Election Day to vote. This year, there is a push to bank their votes early and avoid the risk of not being able to vote on Election Day.

So far, there have been 56,000 absentee-in-person and early votes cast in Alaska.

18 COMMENTS

  1. Ranked-choice voting is a masterpiece in undermining people’s confidence in the voting process

    • I think Rancho is doing is illegal technically takes the vote away from the voter and gives it to the system.
      The system is the individual who dropped this up in the individuals that decide where your vote goes. This is not the American way one vote one person. People will see will just vote for one on rank choice voting that doesn’t solve the problem because people vote for two or three people, don’t get the one they want they might get us alternate. That means that their vote is not in control. It’s in control system.

  2. I just don’t get why aren’t ballots sent out earlier and required to come back by election day? Nothing like a 15-day window to print up a few more ballots. Our Division of Elections heads are crooked (like in other states!). Our GOP does not work for the People. And finally, we have so many rinos in the House and Senate that it is a wonder that we are still part of America and not part of Russia these days.

    • Exactly Ginny. NO ballot received after Tuesday should be counted. If they couldn’t get it in on time and have it on election day take it to the damn precinct.

  3. Long lines, pissed off people – “motivated” voters. I am greatly encouraged that at least most Alaskans can see through the shroud of leftist lies and restore a measure of sanity to our State – and hopefully, prayerfully, our Nation as well.
    Yes, the political end of Peltola and the Hoffman dynasty – the cackling Kamala and the Waltzing commie. I’d love it if I didn’t feel compelled to political snarkiness. Respect should be in order, and what used to be called “the loyal opposition”.

  4. I voted Yes on 2 to do my part in getting rid of RCV.
    Then I went down the ballot and voted for my choice of candidates only.
    Why the hell would I help the opposition by ranking them too?

  5. How ironic that most of the funding urging No on 2 is from Outside Dark Money groups with no interest or stake in Alaska… except to hold it up as an example. All this failed experiment did was to empower flaky liberals who couldn’t win a normal head-to-head race. (Which of course is why the RCV system was devised!) Vote YES on 2 on November 5. Make this failed loopy experiment go away for good.

  6. Expect voting machine supremacy to prevail. It is an an actual design element, along with the fact that the machines software needs to be updated (programmed). The “programming” actually extends well beyond the machines, but it is the proprietary “updates” that have already happened, and are likely to happen again midcourse, while the votes are being “tabulated” that will deceive the electorate like it has done for at least the past couple of decades.

  7. If I’m not mistaken there were 71,000 mail ins requested. That, by my math leaves only about 13,000 outstanding ballots. There are 3 days left until election day so that number will diminish some. Meaning we should know roughly how many are left in each race. Some districts will have very few. Suzanne, in the after game analysis can you provide some numbers of WHERE the most mail in ballot requests come from?

    It is clear that the priority of the next state legislature should be to pass a bill that mandates that no ballots can be accepted after election day, regardless of post mark. Hopefully, this is the LAST late election we are subjected to. The state needs to also get rid of ERIC and in January purge the rolls of all registrations of voters who have moved to other states, this is FRICKING ridiculous. They do that for the PFD, the processes should be aligned.
    One last plea for the Chugiak-Eagle River folks. We must elect Goecker to rid us of that backstabber Merrick. This is essential.

  8. Ranked Choice has a clear purpose. The idea is to normalize a totally convoluted voting process, where everything is kept “up in the air” as long as possible. This gives leftists the time and opportunity to manufacture enough votes to turn elections in their favor. Yeah, I said that. Not one leftist, ever, has given a solid reason or explanation of how paper ballots and hand counts, ID required, finished on election day, disproportionately affects or discriminates against anyone, but still, they will always fight viciously to keep anything that facilitates cheating in place. A lot more people need to call them out on this.

    • Yes and it takes control of the vote from the voter and gives it to the system.
      Besides that now you get multiple votes which goes against one vote one person.
      I sent this illegal by law to have multiple votes and also to Lose control of your vote to the system and not the person?

  9. There is already funny business going on in the polling places. They are cheating and I think that the state is helping them cheat. Don’t be surprised about the results. I have a feeling that the cheating is so orchestrated up here that even the poll workers are having a hard time believing what they are seeing, but going along with it because they don’t want to rock the boat.

  10. I quote the following nonsense from the article. “Final results won’t be known until Nov20…. …because the Division of Elections cannot run the calculation for where second and third-place ballot choices will go until all the ballots are in from overseas and they know who is really in second place on the ranked-choice ballot.” The fact is, the same could be said about the 1st-rank votes. The 2nd-rank votes are no more subject to change by later-arriving ballots than first-rank votes. Like every election ever held, all the counts are subject to change by later arrival of absentee and oversea ballots. The only reason the election bureaucrats don’t reveal the 2nd-rank counts is arrogance. Make no mistake, the people of Alaska own the numbers; we are entitled to see them the day after the election. Cut the crap; end this tyranny.

Comments are closed.