The presidential predictor who gets it right says…


screen-shot-2016-09-27-at-5-06-34-pmBOOK REVIEW

Predicting the Next President – The Keys to the White House 2016, By Allan . Lichtman

The man who has predicted every presidential win since 1984 says Donald Trump will win on Nov. 8.

Polls are all over the map on the Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump race for the presidency.

But Allan J. Lichtman doesn’t use polls. He looks at conditions, such as these:

  • After midterm elections, if the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House than after the previous midterm elections
  • Whether there is a serious contest for the incumbent party nomination
  • Whether the incumbent party candidate is the sitting president
  • Whether there is a significant third party or independent campaign
  • Economy – if there is a recession during an election
  • Social unrest during the incumbent’s term
  • Scandals in incumbent administration
  • Foreign policy and military success or failure of the incumbent
  • Charisma of incumbent party candidate
  • Charisma of the challenger candidate
Of course, even Lichtman has never seen a presidential race like this one. We found the 2016 edition of his book at Amazon.