Predicting the Next President – The Keys to the White House 2016, By Allan . Lichtman
The man who has predicted every presidential win since 1984 says Donald Trump will win on Nov. 8.
Polls are all over the map on the Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump race for the presidency.
But Allan J. Lichtman doesn’t use polls. He looks at conditions, such as these:
- After midterm elections, if the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House than after the previous midterm elections
- Whether there is a serious contest for the incumbent party nomination
- Whether the incumbent party candidate is the sitting president
- Whether there is a significant third party or independent campaign
- Economy – if there is a recession during an election
- Social unrest during the incumbent’s term
- Scandals in incumbent administration
- Foreign policy and military success or failure of the incumbent
- Charisma of incumbent party candidate
- Charisma of the challenger candidate